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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport/Fans Return (Merged)


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On the point about herd immunity, for 60% of the UK population to get COVID-19 within one year, you’d need 100,000 new cases every day. 

If that’s the scenario the government are planning for and which they consider realistic, then it makes you wonder how bad the alternatives (all of which they’ve presumably modelled) would be. 
 

If there are 100,000 new cases every day, even if 98% of those cases are only mild or moderate, the other 2% would very quickly put an intolerable strain on all healthcare providers in the country.

Very worrying times ahead.  

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35 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

 

Listened to this guy on LBC earlier, very articulate and it makes sense

I guess the concern is how do we know when the bottle overflows and is it imminent? If we plan for 4 weeks or so because we're that far behind Italy what happens if in 2 weeks its spread much quicker than anticipated?

It at least seems scientifically led, so I'm willing to trust it and makes the point about us being different to other countries because of cultures and social behaviour

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6 minutes ago, Bobby Bollax said:

How do you see this effecting the bowls season Alan?

Outdoor it’s pending currently. We’ve had players drop out from indoor already and discussions are taking place on whether to end the season now or see it through.

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1 hour ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

 

Makes no sense at all. Im living in spain. The lockdown has started and new cases still flying up, thus overflowing the bottle. This idea of waiting for the NHS to be at capacity before bringing in strong measures will seriously backfire. The notion that you can suddenly put the brakes on it spreading at a convenient time is wrong

Edited by Colombo Robin
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3 hours ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

 because it’s too difficult to develop a vaccine against a Coronavirus

Like all other viruses Coronavirusus constantly mutate, if they didn't mankind wouldn't have developed and wouldn't be able to survive. Often when they mutate they display similar properties (hence as with seasonal flu you're unlikely to be vacinated against this season's strain but recieve some immunity as to effects based on previous strains.) Occasionally a minor RNA change causes huge differences in the degree of damage a virus can cause - as it appears is the case with Covid19. Caution there's little controlled data (other than the cruise ship in Tokyo) as to what Covid19 impacts are? On that ship it was suggested up to 50% of those infected were asymptomatic (i.e. didn't know they had it) and in other highly publicised cases those exposed and who later died appear to be a subset of those at a greatest degree of risk.  Note, too, that should the mortality rate for this virus be in the region of 1%, of the modelled 350k who might die within a year that's NOT in addition to the 640k who'd die anyway, it includes a fair proportion of those who most likely were to die in the shorter term and who's lives were sadly foreshortened.

So follow the virologists advice: viruses really, really hate soap and hot water, monitor the improved data and advice as and when it emerges, don't panic buy (there's no need,) and carry on sensibly carrying on.

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It- ie this issue- transcends football and it's only the Express but the losses football- and tbh again it's not so important as of now- could be very major if season cancelled.

https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/1255372/Coronavirus-English-football-10bn-loss-season-over-epidemic-Premier-League-latest-news

The ones who will be worst hit, especially at clubs in the top 2 divisions will be the day job workers. The casual/matchday staff.

Here's a question too...when a workplace shuts down or there is self-isolation insisted on, SSP, reduced wages etc, this is often the way things are dealt with, for the greater good of a business/an organisation.

Will this apply to footballers?

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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57 minutes ago, Colombo Robin said:

Makes no sense at all. Im living in spain. The lockdown has started and new cases still flying up, thus overflowing the bottle. This idea of waiting for the NHS to be at capacity before bringing in strong measures will seriously backfire. The notion that you can suddenly put the brakes on it spreading at a convenient time is wrong

With respect, they are experts in their field. Not saying they can't be wrong, but I'd trust their ideas based on research and data over the general public

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30 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It- ie this issue- transcends football and it's only the Express but the losses football- and tbh again it's not so important as of now- could be very major if season cancelled.

https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/1255372/Coronavirus-English-football-10bn-loss-season-over-epidemic-Premier-League-latest-news

The ones who will be worst hit, especially at clubs in the top 2 divisions will be the day job workers. The casual/matchday staff.

Here's a question too...when a workplace shuts down or there is self-isolation insisted on, SSP, reduced wages etc, this is often the way things are dealt with, for the greater good of a business/an organisation.

Will this apply to footballers?

As always it will be those at the bottom who are more adversely affected, certainly financially. Except it would seem Deliveroo on the evidence of yesterday at a certain fast food chain. More deliveries for them than those actually ordering and eating there!

As for players having to take a pay cut or break in payments, that may be essential for many EFL clubs. However even in the Premier League, the profit margins are tight and once income dries up a bit, a few of those will struggle. Could we even see FFP rules loosened or abandoned for a year to save clubs from extinction?

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Does anyone hear believe the theories that this has been around longer than suggested? It now seems it can be traced back to November rather than end of December as first thought and the Chinese aren't exactly known for being forthcoming. THey could have sat on this for ages

Lots of people seem to be saying they were ill over Xmas time, more so than usual for the time of year. Myself had a genuine flu that wiped me out for 4/5 days, cleared for a few days then came back again briefly. Shortly later my grandmother who I visited after I thought it had cleared was taken ill with some kind of chest infection. My partner also became ill around the same time (week or so after me) but with more of a dry cough, really snotty/sinusy infection which lasted a couple of weeks at least and her Dad then developed the similar chest infection issue that my nan had. We also had an elderly neighbour come down ill enough to call an ambulance which turned out to be a nasty flu. Potentially already been doing the rounds or did we all coincidentally catch something more "seasonal"

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52 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

As always it will be those at the bottom who are more adversely affected, certainly financially. Except it would seem Deliveroo on the evidence of yesterday at a certain fast food chain. More deliveries for them than those actually ordering and eating there!

As for players having to take a pay cut or break in payments, that may be essential for many EFL clubs. However even in the Premier League, the profit margins are tight and once income dries up a bit, a few of those will struggle. Could we even see FFP rules loosened or abandoned for a year to save clubs from extinction?

Yep, always the way. I'm suggesting footballers though should consider acting in the greater good- a break, wages or % of wages deferred maybe- I don't know but those who can most afford it should give this consideration IMO.

FFP, and other implications- decent article here, covers a few things.

https://www.itsroundanditswhite.co.uk/articles/corona-virus-transfer-window-ffp-implications-premier-league

If it pans out in society as I fear it might though, we could have absolute chaos. Layoffs, temporary layoffs...transition from wages to SSP etc- mortgages, rent- big spikes in homelessness? Maybe it's hyperbole but unless there are measures about rent, mortgages etc we could have big problems.

Who knows what kind of economy we may have left by the end of this if we go into lockdown etc?

On the FFP front, I'd have thought a suspension- except for clubs already under investigation/with punishments pending etc but who knows!

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14 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

Does anyone hear believe the theories that this has been around longer than suggested? It now seems it can be traced back to November rather than end of December as first thought and the Chinese aren't exactly known for being forthcoming. THey could have sat on this for ages

Lots of people seem to be saying they were ill over Xmas time, more so than usual for the time of year. Myself had a genuine flu that wiped me out for 4/5 days, cleared for a few days then came back again briefly. Shortly later my grandmother who I visited after I thought it had cleared was taken ill with some kind of chest infection. My partner also became ill around the same time (week or so after me) but with more of a dry cough, really snotty/sinusy infection which lasted a couple of weeks at least and her Dad then developed the similar chest infection issue that my nan had. We also had an elderly neighbour come down ill enough to call an ambulance which turned out to be a nasty flu. Potentially already been doing the rounds or did we all coincidentally catch something more "seasonal"

Have a friend (works on public transport) who was hospitalized early Nov with breathing difficulties plus flu like symptons. And a Surgery nurse who suspects its been here pre Xmas.

Could be a virus other than Covid 19 of course, while it wouldnt surprise me if it was C-19.

If it has been around in part longer im hoping that would lessen its impact.

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5 hours ago, Sweeneys Penalties said:

If true that's fantastic!

There is some doubt about whether this is true however.

ETJ7fMiWAAE_4uc?format=jpg&name=large

In addition.

Lastly.

https://whatthesport.co.uk/football/sorry-but-cristiano-ronaldo-has-not-converted-his-hotel-chain-into-hospitals-for-covid-19-patients?

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1 hour ago, MarcusX said:

Does anyone hear believe the theories that this has been around longer than suggested? It now seems it can be traced back to November rather than end of December as first thought and the Chinese aren't exactly known for being forthcoming. THey could have sat on this for ages

Lots of people seem to be saying they were ill over Xmas time, more so than usual for the time of year. Myself had a genuine flu that wiped me out for 4/5 days, cleared for a few days then came back again briefly. Shortly later my grandmother who I visited after I thought it had cleared was taken ill with some kind of chest infection. My partner also became ill around the same time (week or so after me) but with more of a dry cough, really snotty/sinusy infection which lasted a couple of weeks at least and her Dad then developed the similar chest infection issue that my nan had. We also had an elderly neighbour come down ill enough to call an ambulance which turned out to be a nasty flu. Potentially already been doing the rounds or did we all coincidentally catch something more "seasonal"

Not for a moment, at least not whilst there's no scientific evidence for the theory.  There's a spike in flu like illnesses over winter every year, so anecdotal evidence of people being ill in winter doesn't mean much at all.  If there had been a new easily transmissible virus with a > 1% mortality rate doing the rounds since November I think it would be very visible in national statistics and have been noticed.

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8 minutes ago, Colombo Robin said:

Different "experts" are advocating different approaches. They cant all be right

How does one become an expert on something unprecedented and once-in-a-generation anyway? 

Especially something as unique like a - admittedly bad for some - seasonal flu which has been given a name. 

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1 hour ago, Major Isewater said:

I’ve often wondered what you look like Downend 

Lucky I wasn't wearing a hat, as I usually do, or I would have been unrecognisable. 

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6 hours ago, handsofclay said:

What I don't get about all of this is we are constantly being told that the best way to protect ourselves (apart from self isolation) from catching this coronavirus is to wash our hands after we've touched things and especially before then touching our faces or eating. If we cannot wash our hands - due to the unavailability of sinks and running water in everyday situations - then hand gel is just as good. Now that is something we can all carry around and get into the habit of using. After all, it will be a lifesaver. 

Now this is the bit I don't get. In the last war, it seemed likely that the home front would be subjected to poison gas attacks. Gas masks were thus quickly issued to everyone in the country and everyone carried them around in the supplied cases. Gas masks cost a fair bit of dosh to produce for a nation that in the late-1930s was still in the midst of the Great Depression. Yet it was done. It was seen as a necessity to protect our population.

Now in 2020 we are a far richer country than our 1939 former selves. Yet, there has been no talk of providing everyone in the country with hand gel. Hand gel being significantly less expensive than a gas mask to produce. Instead we are just told about how hand gel can be a lifesaver and when one looks to purchase a bottle at the supermarket, there's none there because someone has bought 59 years worth of supply. I can imagine back in 1939 a Public Information Film telling us that gas masks were essential but it was your task to find one on the empty shelves of the local stores. Surely it isn't beyond the Government to impose emergency powers upon the alcohol sanitising gel manufacturers and get them to produce enough to provide everyone in the nation with a bottle or two a week.

 

Absolutely. My brother who works at a GPs surgery says that even they can't get any hand gel. It should all be requisitioned by the government, used in the NHS first, and the distributed to households, possibly using posties (with armed guard if it ever gets to that stage) 

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I see a man in nailsea recently died of covid19. Only 59.. no age is it.

 

I have noticed all the jokes on various social media about it are slowly drying up as what is happening is hitting home

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