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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport/Fans Return (Merged)


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8 hours ago, semblar said:

Unfortunately true - I had it twice... apparently the first time was very mild sonot enough to give me immunity, I made up for that in spades second time around.

I was told on Friday that I was to be working at home for the foreseeable future, guess I'm one of the lucky ones that can. It also means when the kids' schools are shut (one is from tomorrow, only partial but affecting his year) it won't affect my wife and her 111 shifts

Reminds me of going to Joe’s nursery when he was little for parents evening.  We got to look through his folder of paintings and stuff and there was a page of quotes.

one of them was:

catwalks aren’t for cats they’re just for models!

found out later it was a bob the builder quote

but the best:

I had chicken pox twice, but I didn’t get it too bad, as I didn’t turn into a real chicken

😂😂😂

 

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Sent home with my laptop now. My wife is 38 weeks pregnant tomorrow with our first born, not going to take any risks now. Worrying times and looks like we may have to isolate ourselves with the baby, gutting with so many people excited to meet him! First time grandparents etc.

Hope everyone is keeping safe

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1 minute ago, ollywhyte said:

Sent home with my laptop now. My wife is 38 weeks pregnant tomorrow with our first born, not going to take any risks now. Worrying times and looks like we may have to isolate ourselves with the baby, gutting with so many people excited to meet him! First time grandparents etc.

Hope everyone is keeping safe

Stay well and all the best on the birth of a new City fan 👍🏻

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3 minutes ago, Red Army 75 said:

Surely the season will finish behind close doors. I will fully be in support of this. Can’t see any other option 

The problem may well be that certain players in various squads have the virus and the players would not like to come into contact.  They are like anyone else and will have extended families who are trying to stay safe. 

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2 minutes ago, Bat Fastard said:

The problem may well be that certain players in various squads have the virus and the players would not like to come into contact.  They are like anyone else and will have extended families who are trying to stay safe. 

Totally understand that. I was thinking more of players being tested and players who are healthy and clear play the games. Time to use the squad.

Disclaimer : I am not a doctor I know nothing this is just my opinion.  :yes:

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18 minutes ago, ollywhyte said:

Sent home with my laptop now. My wife is 38 weeks pregnant tomorrow with our first born, not going to take any risks now. Worrying times and looks like we may have to isolate ourselves with the baby, gutting with so many people excited to meet him! First time grandparents etc.

Hope everyone is keeping safe

My wife’s in labour as we speak and very worried about who comes to see the baby, family included, unfortunately we are going to have to play safe which is sad as nobody gets to meet the new baby for a while but zero point risking it!  Good luck by the way!  We arrived at Southmead at 2pm Monday and no baby yet!

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6 hours ago, havanatopia said:

I do too.

I also find political point scoring, especially earlier in this thread, a bit silly to put it mildly. 

This kind of confusion is inevitable in a crisis this big and fast-moving. But it does also make the government's job much harder as it is easy for those who - for whatever reason - are mostly interested in scoring points to accuse ministers of U-turning and not being in full control. The truth is that it is impossible to be in control of a virus that scientists are still trying to fully understand, but the task for the government is to appear as responsive and sensible as possible - and to get that heard over the clamour.

I understand the point you're making and political point scoring a no go, but it feels like our Government have been a bit reactive, behind the curve at certain points. I'd be saying that regardless of party BTW.

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Genuine question. How does a government create a plan, and control a pandemic when it's stopped testing the general public?

If you don't know how many cases there are, how do you know when it truly slows?

Following yesterday's post about my mother, she was told not to contact 111 or Doctors, as per the general guidance, so she wont know if she has it, and nor will the people collecting the data.

Also, she could now quarantine for 14 days as per advice, then turn out she only had an agressive cold (she has lower immune system due to cancer in the past) and then still be likely to actually catch it?

Likewise, myself (back in work today 🤦‍♂️) could quarantine for 2 weeks thinking I've been around someone with symptoms when I haven't and then we're still at risk.

I think i'd rather have it ASAP, quarantine and get it done with than the unknown with vulnerable people around me.

I also realise the NHS/GPs probably dont have capacity to test the amount of people required. I just couldn't understand how you manage it without knowing the figures?

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1 hour ago, ollywhyte said:

Sent home with my laptop now. My wife is 38 weeks pregnant tomorrow with our first born, not going to take any risks now. Worrying times and looks like we may have to isolate ourselves with the baby, gutting with so many people excited to meet him! First time grandparents etc.

Hope everyone is keeping safe

 

1 hour ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

My wife’s in labour as we speak and very worried about who comes to see the baby, family included, unfortunately we are going to have to play safe which is sad as nobody gets to meet the new baby for a while but zero point risking it!  Good luck by the way!  We arrived at Southmead at 2pm Monday and no baby yet!

The most tiring and exciting thing you’ll ever do. Good luck boys!

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1 hour ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

My wife’s in labour as we speak and very worried about who comes to see the baby, family included, unfortunately we are going to have to play safe which is sad as nobody gets to meet the new baby for a while but zero point risking it!  Good luck by the way!  We arrived at Southmead at 2pm Monday and no baby yet!

Given your username do we assume you are the father of the impending offspring or not?

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1 hour ago, ollywhyte said:

Sent home with my laptop now. My wife is 38 weeks pregnant tomorrow with our first born, not going to take any risks now. Worrying times and looks like we may have to isolate ourselves with the baby, gutting with so many people excited to meet him! First time grandparents etc.

Hope everyone is keeping safe

Good luck @ollywhyte to you and your family. As a new father , best thing in the world 

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Apologies if this has been asked on here before, but in my household, 3 of us are in the high risk group advised to socially distance by the Gov. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

If my workplace refuses a WFH request, will I be entitled to statutory sick pay if I take the Govs advice and 'socially distance' or do I actually have to have the illness to qualify for it?

Hopefully someone knows!

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1 hour ago, ollywhyte said:

Sent home with my laptop now. My wife is 38 weeks pregnant tomorrow with our first born, not going to take any risks now. Worrying times and looks like we may have to isolate ourselves with the baby, gutting with so many people excited to meet him! First time grandparents etc.

Hope everyone is keeping safe

 

1 hour ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

My wife’s in labour as we speak and very worried about who comes to see the baby, family included, unfortunately we are going to have to play safe which is sad as nobody gets to meet the new baby for a while but zero point risking it!  Good luck by the way!  We arrived at Southmead at 2pm Monday and no baby yet!

Congrats to both of you. 

Your kids will never fully appreciate the strange year that they were born into!

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Something interesting that I didn't know

Not related as such to the virus, but on SSN Danny Mills just said that with every football contract that expires at the end of June, if a player doesn't get a new contract the owner club still has to pay their wages until the end of July

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46 minutes ago, Badger08 said:

I can't see why this can't happen.  If the players are only mixing between themselves and get tested on a regular basis, it shouldn't be a problem in my view. 

The clubs could stream the games / play them on sky.  Its an easy thing to no and no reason why the season can't continue behind closed doors after a 2 week isolation period for the squad and staff. 

The big issue (if I am correct on assumption), is that there are just not enough testing kits here to test the public (and even ones who have symptoms so have to stay in probably worrying if they got it or not).

Unless there are unlimited testing kits made available, then I really don't see it necessary to test thousands of footballers regularly when those tests should/could be used elsewhere. You would have to test all the players, staff, stadium staff, coach driver etc etc, that would run into the tens of thousands of kits being used. I would rather see them being used to test the vulnerable rather than the healthier sportsmen. 

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6 minutes ago, phantom said:

Something interesting that I didn't know

Not related as such to the virus, but on SSN Danny Mills just said that with every football contract that expires at the end of June, if a player doesn't get a new contract the owner club still has to pay their wages until the end of July

Saw that mentioned on twitter yesterday, but recalled in Ben Smith’s autobiography that he mentioned the difference between a pro and a short-term / semi-pro contract was exactly that, he’d get paid through the summer holiday...and why one season it meant he could pay mortgage.

Its a good read, and puts the lower league pro in context....they aren’t all earning vast sums, even at those levels.

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1 hour ago, Badger08 said:

I can't see why this can't happen.  If the players are only mixing between themselves and get tested on a regular basis, it shouldn't be a problem in my view. 

The clubs could stream the games / play them on sky.  Its an easy thing to no and no reason why the season can't continue behind closed doors after a 2 week isolation period for the squad and staff. 

I think it depends on what services are needed at the ground. Games aren’t being played so that emergency services are free to deal with other things. 
 
Would the government be happy for all these people to be not available on the frontline to be at football games.

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2 minutes ago, wayne allisons tongues said:

I think it depends on what services are needed at the ground. Games aren’t being played so that emergency services are free to deal with other things. 
 
Would the government be happy for all these people to be not available on the frontline to be at football games.

That's not why football was initially cancelled, though the government advice obviously changed since.

Why would emergency services be required for a game behind closed doors? Other than potentially medical staff

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I hate to be gloomy but I'm starting to worry this is all a lot more serious still than many of us appreciate.

This is the report the government is basing its modelling on.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It is not an easy read but there is a reasonable but gloomy summary here:

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Essentially the conclusion is

a) this can only be stopped by suppression - i.e. isolation, social distancing, closures of work, businesses and schools etc.

b) It is likely that, when suppression stops, the virus will return.

Therefore we may need to continue the suppression tactics countries are using now for 12 - 18 months until there is a virus or a treatment.

There has been a review of it questioning whether the virus will return and suggesting it could be managed if so but I think the reality is we could be in for the long haul...

Edited by LondonBristolian
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8 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I hate to be gloomy but I'm starting to worry this is all a lot more serious still than many of us appreciate.

This is the report the government is basing its modelling on.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It is not an easy read but there is a reasonable but gloomy summary here:

ps://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Essentially the conclusion is

a) this can only be stopped by suppression - i.e. isolation, social distancing, closures of work, businesses and schools etc.

b) It is likely that, when suppression stops, the virus will return.

Therefore we may need to continue the suppression tactics countries are using now for 12 - 18 months until there is a virus or a treatment.

There has been a review of it questioning whether the virus will return and suggesting it could be managed if so but I think the reality is we could be in for the long haul...

The world has taken a very strange turn, that's for sure.

If you'd have told me in 2015 that within 5 years we'd have a pandemic requiring global isolation for a year minimum, Boris as PM, Trump as Pres, Brexit, and that Southgate would have taken England to a world cup semi final with Lingard, Trippier and Maguire proving to be key players, well I'd have laughed hysterically, then screamed for medication...

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11 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I hate to be gloomy but I'm starting to worry this is all a lot more serious still than many of us appreciate.

This is the report the government is basing its modelling on.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It is not an easy read but there is a reasonable but gloomy summary here:

ps://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Essentially the conclusion is

a) this can only be stopped by suppression - i.e. isolation, social distancing, closures of work, businesses and schools etc.

b) It is likely that, when suppression stops, the virus will return.

Therefore we may need to continue the suppression tactics countries are using now for 12 - 18 months until there is a virus or a treatment.

There has been a review of it questioning whether the virus will return and suggesting it could be managed if so but I think the reality is we could be in for the long haul...

Entirely agree. A couple of things in recent days have made me think this is going to last for much longer than some people think.

Firstly, Chris Whitty was asked the other day how long these measures could be in place. His answer was 'weeks or months', and I got the sense he was being deliberately vague because he already knows the answer but doesn't dare reveal it to the public as the answer won't be a popular one.  

Secondly, if the government are offering assistance to businesses for the next 12 months, what does that tell you?

Thirdly, I come back to the point about 60% of the population becoming infected. If this is being considered as a likely outcome in the modelling, and if such a scenario were to occur within 12 months, it would mean an average of 100,000 new cases every single day. That's a rate of infection that's way, way beyond where we currently stand right now.

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2 minutes ago, North London Red said:

Entirely agree. A couple of things in recent days have made me think this is going to last for much longer than some people think.

Firstly, Chris Whitty was asked the other day how long these measures could be in place. His answer was 'weeks or months', and I got the sense he was being deliberately vague because he already knows the answer but doesn't dare reveal it to the public as the answer won't be a popular one.  

Secondly, if the government are offering assistance to businesses for the next 12 months, what does that tell you?

Thirdly, I come back to the point about 60% of the population becoming infected. If this is being considered as a likely outcome in the modelling, and if such a scenario were to occur within 12 months, it would mean an average of 100,000 new cases every single day. That's a rate of infection that's way, way beyond where we currently stand right now.

Regarding the third point, my understanding - which could be wrong - is now the aim is to try to prevent those 60% becoming infected. I think the 60% figure was if the mitigation model was used, which was the plan until last week when it was realised that it would mean intensive care beds getting overwhelmed and around 230, 000 deaths.

We're now aiming for less than 20, 000 deaths which, based on a 1% fatality rate, makes me think we are trying to keep it down to only 2 million infections - which is under 3% of the population. To achieve that is surely going to take prolonged social isolation and exclusion and, as a result, nothing approaching herd immunity, thus  increasing how vulnerable we are to the virus if it is not eradicated entirely. 

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8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

China, Italy and South Korea. 

These are, were ahead of us. Will be interesting indicators, as to whether it returns, how quickly. The form it takes etc. 

Cases in China or new cases have gone right down? Italy, the rate maybe slowing a bit- South Korea, has been held up as an exemplary example in various quarters.

The China situation is one I can't quite work out, since it seems to contradict the doomsday scenarios which are implicit in the Imperial College paper and which have been reported in various places.

If China's latest numbers are right, it could be the one ray of light here, and the situation may not be quite as bad as feared.

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2 minutes ago, North London Red said:

Entirely agree. A couple of things in recent days have made me think this is going to last for much longer than some people think.

Firstly, Chris Whitty was asked the other day how long these measures could be in place. His answer was 'weeks or months', and I got the sense he was being deliberately vague because he already knows the answer but doesn't dare reveal it to the public as the answer won't be a popular one.  

Secondly, if the government are offering assistance to businesses for the next 12 months, what does that tell you?

Thirdly, I come back to the point about 60% of the population becoming infected. If this is being considered as a likely outcome in the modelling, and if such a scenario were to occur within 12 months, it would mean an average of 100,000 new cases every single day. That's a rate of infection that's way, way beyond where we currently stand right now.

Don't forget though. The majority of those that do get it, recover and (hopefully) build up an immunity to it.  In some way there is probably a benefit to getting it so that you build up resistance. Appreciate that's not best for the minority at all.  

The flip side to forcing everyone (who hasn't had it) to self isolate though is that they won't get it or potentially build an immunity to it and therefore there could still be a risk when restrictions are lifted that it'll all spread again. 

The modeling scientists and doctors are doing is hypothetical based in lots of data and previous events but they dont actually know how this will pan out. 

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5 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

Regarding the third point, my understanding - which could be wrong - is now the aim is to try to prevent those 60% becoming infected. I think the 60% figure was if the mitigation model was used, which was the plan until last week when it was realised that it would mean intensive care beds getting overwhelmed and around 230, 000 deaths.

We're now aiming for less than 20, 000 deaths which, based on a 1% fatality rate, makes me think we are trying to keep it down to only 2 million infections - which is under 3% of the population. To achieve that is surely going to take prolonged social isolation and exclusion and, as a result, nothing approaching herd immunity, thus  increasing how vulnerable we are to the virus if it is not eradicated entirely. 

 

3 minutes ago, Loco Rojo said:

Don't forget though. The majority of those that do get it, recover and (hopefully) build up an immunity to it.  In some way there is probably a benefit to getting it so that you build up resistance. Appreciate that's not best for the minority at all.  

The flip side to forcing everyone (who hasn't had it) to self isolate though is that they won't get it or potentially build an immunity to it and therefore there could still be a risk when restrictions are lifted that it'll all spread again. 

The modeling scientists and doctors are doing is hypothetical based in lots of data and previous events but they dont actually know how this will pan out. 

 

Fair points.

The issue of the virus resurfacing once the restrictions are lifted will also dictate how long these measures last. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that lockdowns will last in Europe until a vaccine is widely available (which the experts are saying is likely to be at least a year away)? The length of time to develop, manufacture and distribute bulk quantities of a vaccine is another reason why these restrictions might be in place for the long haul.

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