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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport/Fans Return (Merged)


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36 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

That's not why football was initially cancelled, though the government advice obviously changed since.

Why would emergency services be required for a game behind closed doors? Other than potentially medical staff

I don’t know that’s why I said I think. Guess it all depends on what each clubs SAG say. 
 

Would they let a match proceed without an ambulance present? 
 

All just guesswork but i would think playing matches is not high on list of priorities for the country at the moment.

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4 minutes ago, havanatopia said:

I must be irrational then.

Well certainly I don't think you are irrational, but it does surprise me that you don't see a curiosity there at the very least?

You've got 10 leaders taking scientific advice. 8 interpret it one way, and 2 another way. We are one of the two (in this simplification). Isn't it normal to say, hang in, what do those 8 know that we don't?!

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9 minutes ago, havanatopia said:

I must be irrational then.

Here's another analogy... Lee Johnson decides he's going to play only 2 defenders in his line up, when all other clubs play 3, 4 or 5 defenders. Naturally, half the fans are saying 'hang on, that leaves us exposed at the back!' Now Lee might have uncovered a genius tactic that goes on to be successful, but it's rational to wonder if he's got his coaching all wrong.

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6 minutes ago, North London Red said:

 

 

Fair points.

The issue of the virus resurfacing once the restrictions are lifted will also dictate how long these measures last. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that lockdowns will last in Europe until a vaccine is widely available (which the experts are saying is likely to be at least a year away)? The length of time to develop, manufacture and distribute bulk quantities of a vaccine is another reason why these restrictions might be in place for the long haul.

It's all unknown isn't. Your question about the lockdown being longer term has much more economic impacts of people losing jobs/going out of business which could very well mean huge unemployment and possibly homelessness and then how does the country feed people? Lots of hypothesis which are all unknown, but what we do know (although the media aren't reporting it very well because it doesn't sell papers) is that the vast majority of people ony get mild symptoms and are recovering.

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13 minutes ago, North London Red said:

The length of time to develop, manufacture and distribute bulk quantities of a vaccine is another reason why these restrictions might be in place for the long haul.

But surely the entire world (almost) is trying to develop a suitable vaccine? So presumably the time taken to hopefully reach a point where one is suitable for deployment will be reasonable? 

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10 minutes ago, mozo said:

Here's another analogy... Lee Johnson decides he's going to play only 2 defenders in his line up, when all other clubs play 3, 4 or 5 defenders. Naturally, half the fans are saying 'hang on, that leaves us exposed at the back!' Now Lee might have uncovered a genius tactic that goes on to be successful, but it's rational to wonder if he's got his coaching all wrong.

What I don't understand is that this week the government and their advisers have - and this is entirely to their credit - accepted that they got it wrong, that mitigation was not going to work and we need to suppress the outbreak in the ways that other countries are doing. Hence we have very suddenly moved from "stay in for seven days if you have a cough" to "avoid pubs, restaurants and all non-essential social contact". 

Whilst we have not yet forcibly locked this down, we are now moving away from the tactics we were pursuing and moving towards the ones recommended by the WHO.

So why are people still saying the government have got this right when even the government admit that this is not the case and that they have needed to change direction?

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6 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

But surely the entire world (almost) is trying to develop a suitable vaccine? So presumably the time taken to hopefully reach a point where one is suitable for deployment will be reasonable? 

The problem is that you are meant to test vaccines and monitor for 14 months to ensure no side effects. Vaccines are being developed and tested but, unless health regulations change (which carries its own risk) it is still going to be May next year at the earliest that a vaccine has been sufficiently tested.

It is also possible the initial vaccines will not work quite as hoped and will need to be refined. And then there is the fact you need to manufacture and distribute enough for the world (if the countries around world can afford to pay for it). 

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1 hour ago, Coppello said:

Glastonbury Festival has confirmed its cancellation. Tickets have been rolled forward to next year which is a bit annoying given I missed out! 

True, but its the only thing they could do. I've been trying for several years to get tickets so would have been annoyed if they didn't - though I realise there's more important things to be annoyed about

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50 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I hate to be gloomy but I'm starting to worry this is all a lot more serious still than many of us appreciate.

This is the report the government is basing its modelling on.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It is not an easy read but there is a reasonable but gloomy summary here:

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Essentially the conclusion is

a) this can only be stopped by suppression - i.e. isolation, social distancing, closures of work, businesses and schools etc.

b) It is likely that, when suppression stops, the virus will return.

Therefore we may need to continue the suppression tactics countries are using now for 12 - 18 months until there is a virus or a treatment.

There has been a review of it questioning whether the virus will return and suggesting it could be managed if so but I think the reality is we could be in for the long haul...

 

34 minutes ago, North London Red said:

Entirely agree. A couple of things in recent days have made me think this is going to last for much longer than some people think.

Firstly, Chris Whitty was asked the other day how long these measures could be in place. His answer was 'weeks or months', and I got the sense he was being deliberately vague because he already knows the answer but doesn't dare reveal it to the public as the answer won't be a popular one.  

Secondly, if the government are offering assistance to businesses for the next 12 months, what does that tell you?

Thirdly, I come back to the point about 60% of the population becoming infected. If this is being considered as a likely outcome in the modelling, and if such a scenario were to occur within 12 months, it would mean an average of 100,000 new cases every single day. That's a rate of infection that's way, way beyond where we currently stand right now.

I agree, hence my suggestion elsewhere that we won't get a 20-21 season.

Apart for a vaccine, the other thing that may affect this is the understanding we increasingly get of the virus. And so far, much of that points to the importance of testing, something the WHO has been banging on about,  S Korea has been very good at and we, and the US, pretty poor. Although little pockets seem to have re-occured in S Korea since they got the numbers down, they have been very quick to identify and contain them.

There's an interesting article in the Italian press about a small town call Vo', in the North, where they have been testing the entire population. One thing that's highlighted is that 50% or more of people who catch the virus are asymptomatic. That means they take fewer precautions, and may even be doctors or other health workers. And children particularly - so it's not necessarily that they don't catch the virus, just that they don't show any symptoms. So, by identifying and isolating these people they've been able to reduce the rate of spread significantly.

 https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/

So, what we could get, for example, would be regular testing for whole populations - massively expensive but compared to what the Chancellor announced yesterday...? 

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12 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

What I don't understand is that this week the government and their advisers have - and this is entirely to their credit - accepted that they got it wrong, that mitigation was not going to work and we need to suppress the outbreak in the ways that other countries are doing. Hence we have very suddenly moved from "stay in for seven days if you have a cough" to "avoid pubs, restaurants and all non-essential social contact". 

Whilst we have not yet forcibly locked this down, we are now moving away from the tactics we were pursuing and moving towards the ones recommended by the WHO.

So why are people still saying the government have got this right when even the government admit that this is not the case and that they have needed to change direction?

Because to suggest otherwise is deemed as political point scoring, even when it’s not!!!! 👀

It seems in some people’s eyes we are at a point where we are no longer allowed to question or challenge.

For me £330bn is a fantastic statement, but the detail beneath isn’t so.

Don't get me wrong there is no perfect solution to both health and economy.  Part of the problem is there is a lot of ‘stock’ being taken from the daily press-conference, yet in fairness to the government other things are being decided on in different meetings to that, e.g. IR35 got postponed by a year late yesterday evening, commitment to talk to certain ministers (Housing) about rent proposals.

Ultimately, communication isn’t good enough.  In fairness to this government, they are doing some good things, but their clarity, consistency and depth of comms isn’t where it needs to be at this point.

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46 minutes ago, North London Red said:

Entirely agree. A couple of things in recent days have made me think this is going to last for much longer than some people think.

Firstly, Chris Whitty was asked the other day how long these measures could be in place. His answer was 'weeks or months', and I got the sense he was being deliberately vague because he already knows the answer but doesn't dare reveal it to the public as the answer won't be a popular one.  

Secondly, if the government are offering assistance to businesses for the next 12 months, what does that tell you?

Thirdly, I come back to the point about 60% of the population becoming infected. If this is being considered as a likely outcome in the modelling, and if such a scenario were to occur within 12 months, it would mean an average of 100,000 new cases every single day. That's a rate of infection that's way, way beyond where we currently stand right now.

I wonder if part of the problem is relying on / trusting the general public to do the right thing? They cant be trusted to not stock pile toilet paper ffs how can they be trusted to stay home and bunker down?

Whilst people are still "allowed" to make their own choices, I cant see how the spreading will stop. There's still companies that at best arent encouraging home working (at worst, preventing it). There's still people going to pubs, bars, restaurants. Gyms are still open. The supermarkets are still full of people. We aren't testing anyone so we wont even know when the numbers die down. Any figures now need to be taken with a pinch of salt as they are likely higher than reported.

 

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Flashing Blue
On the panel I see the lights that are lit.
The process step is under my control.
I keep an eye on the computer's analyzes.
Here, uncertainty has played its part.
 
The control flashes blue, a signal for the safe.
The control flashes blue, then everything is fine.
If the screen is normal, there is no reason to hesitate.
When the control flashes blue, then everything is fine.
 
But in the quiet hours of the night I have wondered,
What happens where technology doesn't see,
What is hiding in the shadow of the Tuja trees.
And I feel the anxiety growing more and more.
 
But the control flashes blue, a signal for the safe.
The control flashes blue, then everything is fine.
If the screen is normal, there is no reason to hesitate.
When the control flashes blue, then everything is fine.
 
But there are questions the computer cannot answer.
Signals I cannot understand.
There is so much we cannot explain.
There are forces we can never use.
 
The control flashes blue, a signal for the safe.
The control flashes blue, then everything is fine.
If the screen is normal, there is no reason to hesitate.
When the control flashes blue, then everything is fine.

 

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52 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

China, Italy and South Korea. 

These are, were ahead of us. Will be interesting indicators, as to whether it returns, how quickly. The form it takes etc. 

Cases in China or new cases have gone right down? Italy, the rate maybe slowing a bit- South Korea, has been held up as an exemplary example in various quarters.

Because those countries did what we aren't doing - tested anyone with a temperature and then traced their contacts and tested them.

It is madness that we say there is no need to test people who've self-isolated with all the symptoms. Those people will have been wandering about for days without knowing they had the virus. Folk who have been in contact with them deserve to know and be tested then they can self-isolate accordingly.

In this piece, an NHS surgeon who thinks he has the virus writes of how health-workers are not being tested and are potentially spreading the disease around hospitals.

It's time the government stopped trying to fight this on the cheap. Even the business support is largely a cheapo loan scheme that will benefit the banks at the expense of affected SMEs. 

We need to ramp up testing and tracing as has been used in the Far East. It brought South Korean virus figures down from being the world's most infected country to being below many European and Middle Eastern ones.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/there-is-a-policy-of-surrender-doctor-on-uks-covid-19-failures?fbclid=IwAR2fvjtsLT2zOnYZ7NPIfhJl_kjQE_GOiRdZds26fZBBiCBEdsjDF37prTA

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9 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

I wonder if part of the problem is relying on / trusting the general public to do the right thing? They cant be trusted to not stock pile toilet paper ffs how can they be trusted to stay home and bunker down?

Whilst people are still "allowed" to make their own choices, I cant see how the spreading will stop. There's still companies that at best arent encouraging home working (at worst, preventing it). There's still people going to pubs, bars, restaurants. Gyms are still open. The supermarkets are still full of people. We aren't testing anyone so we wont even know when the numbers die down. Any figures now need to be taken with a pinch of salt as they are likely higher than reported.

 

That's fine- people need essentials and if no panic buying, they will have to do that! Unless you want panic buying, we will for the time being need to keep supermarkets open! If people are responsible, social distance, wash hands- then supermarkets staying open is okay.

Beyond that, I have sympathy with your post in general- companies not encouraging home working is interesting but very irresponsible indeed. Preventing it further still.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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9 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

Because those countries did what we aren't doing - tested anyone with a temperature and then traced their contacts and tested them.

It is madness that we say there is no need to test people who've self-isolated with all the symptoms. Those people will have been wandering about for days without knowing they had the virus. Folk who have been in contact with them deserve to know and be tested then they can self-isolate accordingly.

In this piece, an NHS surgeon who thinks he has the virus writes of how health-workers are not being tested and are potentially spreading the disease around hospitals.

It's time the government stopped trying to fight this on the cheap. Even the business support is largely a cheapo loan scheme that will benefit the banks at the expense of affected SMEs. 

We need to ramp up testing and tracing as has been used in the Far East. It brought South Korean virus figures down from being the world's most infected country to being below many European and Middle Eastern ones.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/there-is-a-policy-of-surrender-doctor-on-uks-covid-19-failures?fbclid=IwAR2fvjtsLT2zOnYZ7NPIfhJl_kjQE_GOiRdZds26fZBBiCBEdsjDF37prTA

Absolutely. And that article from Italy in my post above suggests that NHS surgeon is spot on.

And by the same token, isolating only people with symptoms means that more than half the people who have the virus are still wandering around the place unaware they have it.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That's fine- people need essentials and if no panic buying, they will have to do that! Unless you want panic buying, we will for the time being need to keep supermarkets open!

Beyond that, I agree with your post in general- companies not encouraging home working is interesting but very irresponsible indeed. Preventing it further still.

 

As a former journalist, I'm amazed when I see the packed room of journos at Bongo's daily virus briefings. All held in virus hotspot London.

Hasn't the government and media heard of video conferencing? 

They advise us all to take loads of precautions then ignore them themselves.

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5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That's fine- people need essentials and if no panic buying, they will have to do that! Unless you want panic buying, we will for the time being need to keep supermarkets open!

Beyond that, I agree with your post in general- companies not encouraging home working is interesting but very irresponsible indeed. Preventing it further still.

In Italy the supermarkets are still open, but access is limited, you have to keep a distance from other shoppers, and trolleys, tills etc are cleaned after every use.

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3 hours ago, ollywhyte said:

Sent home with my laptop now. My wife is 38 weeks pregnant tomorrow with our first born, not going to take any risks now. Worrying times and looks like we may have to isolate ourselves with the baby, gutting with so many people excited to meet him! First time grandparents etc.

Hope everyone is keeping safe

 

3 hours ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

My wife’s in labour as we speak and very worried about who comes to see the baby, family included, unfortunately we are going to have to play safe which is sad as nobody gets to meet the new baby for a while but zero point risking it!  Good luck by the way!  We arrived at Southmead at 2pm Monday and no baby yet!

Good luck with everything you two. Hope all goes well. 
If it’s any consolation, my experience of having kids is that your Mrs will be shattered and will not really want to see anyone for a couple of weeks anyway. So you’ve probably got a very well timed self-lockdown situation. 

2 hours ago, LastManStanding said:

Apologies if this has been asked on here before, but in my household, 3 of us are in the high risk group advised to socially distance by the Gov. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

If my workplace refuses a WFH request, will I be entitled to statutory sick pay if I take the Govs advice and 'socially distance' or do I actually have to have the illness to qualify for it?

Hopefully someone knows!

If you are in a high risk group and your employer is refusing your request to work from home then your employer is a total dick. 
If they don’t allow it, call in sick and say you have symptoms. You don’t need a Dr‘s note to prove it, just say you called 111 and they instructed you to stay at home. 
Technically, if you call in sick then you are entitled to sick pay from day 1. 
 

However, if your employer does the right thing and allows you to work from home then that’s the best scenario. I’d be amazed if employers are refusing this, if it’s available. 

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26 minutes ago, italian dave said:

In Italy the supermarkets are still open, but access is limited, you have to keep a distance from other shoppers, and trolleys, tills etc are cleaned after every use.

And people think our Gov't has finally taken the required measures...

In France you will be fined for leaving the home for unnecessary reasons. Either they're going OTT, or we are being put at risk by our lawmakers. Time will tell.

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14 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That's fine- people need essentials and if no panic buying, they will have to do that! Unless you want panic buying, we will for the time being need to keep supermarkets open! If people are responsible, social distance, wash hands- then supermarkets staying open is okay.

Beyond that, I have sympathy with your post in general- companies not encouraging home working is interesting but very irresponsible indeed. Preventing it further still.

I agree people need supplies, maybe shouldn't have mentioned supermarkets but was surprised how many people were there considering "social distancing" measures (none of that going on)

Seems Boris has took another change of direction and the NHS are now going to test 25000 people per day

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14 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Good luck with everything you two. Hope all goes well. 
If it’s any consolation, my experience of having kids is that your Mrs will be shattered and will not really want to see anyone for a couple of weeks anyway. So you’ve probably got a very well timed self-lockdown situation. 

If you are in a high risk group and your employer is refusing your request to work from home then your employer is a total dick. 
If they don’t allow it, call in sick and say you have symptoms. You don’t need a Dr‘s note to prove it, just say you called 111 and they instructed you to stay at home. 
Technically, if you call in sick then you are entitled to sick pay from day 1. 
 

However, if your employer does the right thing and allows you to work from home then that’s the best scenario. I’d be amazed if employers are refusing this, if it’s available. 

Be amazed away then.

My workplace cut 30% of staff last week, more on Monday- and last I heard, they still by Tuesday close of play had no instructions about working from home.

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11 minutes ago, mozo said:

And people think our Gov't has finally taken the required measures...

In France you will be fined for leaving the home for unnecessary reasons. Either they're going OTT, or we are being put at risk by our lawmakers. Time will tell.

Mate of mine lives in France now and posted on Facebook earlier about how he ventured out to the local hypermarket, which had no more than about half a dozen other shoppers. On the way back home he was stopped by the police and asked to show his papers and justify his reason for being out.

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