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Fammy, Nakhi and Benik


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Lee said having Afobe back is like having a new signing. Make that 2 as Palmer will be like a new signing with his besty Benik in front of him. Those 2 and Fammy, Nakhi, Elliason, Andi and Patto is some fantastic ammo in and around the box. We are going up !!!!

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51 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That sounds really appealing on paper but throwing 4 up front isn't necessarily always ideal. 

Can lose a midfield supply line, open ourselves up to quick breaks, of course if we're losing anyway, nothing ventured nothing gained. 

That kind of game chasing system can easily collapse into an uncoordinated mess.

Yeah I agree. Just got a bit ahead of myself , imagining it 

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Just to again post my support for the return of the WM formation.

Baker, Kalas and Williams/Benkovic at the back.

Couple of Nagy, Smith or Massengo in the middle.

Fam up top.

Then 4 from Eliasson, Palmer, Afobe, Weimann, Wells and Paterson buzzing around Fam pretty much as they please.

Goals would fly in at both ends of the pitch.

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11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Just to again post my support for the return of the WM formation.

Baker, Kalas and Williams/Benkovic at the back.

Couple of Nagy, Smith or Massengo in the middle.

Fam up top.

Then 4 from Eliasson, Palmer, Afobe, Weimann, Wells and Paterson buzzing around Fam pretty much as they please.

Goals would fly in at both ends of the pitch.

Just trying to think how swamped in midfield we might get if we played say Leeds or WBA or Brentford- or even Fulham- in that setup.

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23 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Just to again post my support for the return of the WM formation.

Baker, Kalas and Williams/Benkovic at the back.

Couple of Nagy, Smith or Massengo in the middle.

Fam up top.

Then 4 from Eliasson, Palmer, Afobe, Weimann, Wells and Paterson buzzing around Fam pretty much as they please.

Goals would fly in at both ends of the pitch.

That’s my only worry. Kalas has underperformed in my view so far this season.

Really need him back to his best.

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35 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Just trying to think how swamped in midfield we might get if we played say Leeds or WBA or Brentford- or even Fulham- in that setup.

Ah but this is the beauty of it - we no longer have to play Leeds, Brentford, WBA or Fulham unless we get play offs. Go gungho hell for leather for 9 games, overwhelm the lesser teams with shock, awe, and a blistering 5 up front. Then switch to something solid for the play offs.

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5 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Ah but this is the beauty of it - we no longer have to play Leeds, Brentford, WBA or Fulham unless we get play offs. Go gungho hell for leather for 9 games, overwhelm the lesser teams with shock, awe, and a blistering 5 up front. Then switch to something solid for the play offs.

This is it- we no longer have to worry about those 4!

Still wonder though...

21 minutes ago, Lew-T said:

That’s my only worry. Kalas has underperformed in my view so far this season.

Really need him back to his best.

I wonder if he- and some others- were rushed back from injury, brought back too quick. Lingering effects may play a part.

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16 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

This is it- we no longer have to worry about those 4!

Still wonder though...

I wonder if he- and some others- were rushed back from injury, brought back too quick. Lingering effects may play a part.

Definatley the case with Nagy, almost certainly Kalas too. Hopefully these two being back to their best should vastly improve us and give us a real shot at the play offs

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27 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

This is it- we no longer have to worry about those 4!

Still wonder though...

I wonder if he- and some others- were rushed back from injury, brought back too quick. Lingering effects may play a part.

If we  play and perform in the manner we did for the majority of the season then we can, IMO, expect to lose out on a play off spot.  We fundamentally weren't creating enough chances.

The reverse fixtures of our remaining 9 games saw us get 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses for a total of 13 points (xg reckoning that 12 would have been fair). We scored 11 from 88 shots and conceded 10 from 123 shots. From memory there were some good performances at Stoke, Cardiff and Preston (imo Preston away was one of our best performances of the season). But also some stinkers such as Sheff Wed away and Blackburn at home. 13 more points would see us end on 68 - generally not enough to get 6th, and disappointingly fewer than last season.

I understand that this crazy 9 game condensed season means that to an extent all bets are off. Also the strike force we now have does give me hope, and Afobe's return in particular can hopefully take us back to the very early performances we saw last summer. However, I can't shake the feeling that we will still fall just short. 

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11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

If we  play and perform in the manner we did for the majority of the season then we can, IMO, expect to lose out on a play off spot.  We fundamentally weren't creating enough chances.

The reverse fixtures of our remaining 9 games saw us get 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses for a total of 13 points (xg reckoning that 12 would have been fair). We scored 11 from 88 shots and conceded 10 from 123 shots. From memory there were some good performances at Stoke, Cardiff and Preston (imo Preston away was one of our best performances of the season). But also some stinkers such as Sheff Wed away and Blackburn at home. 13 more points would see us end on 68 - generally not enough to get 6th, and disappointingly fewer than last season.

I understand that this crazy 9 game condensed season means that to an extent all bets are off. Also the strike force we now have does give me hope, and Afobe's return in particular can hopefully take us back to the very early performances we saw last summer. However, I can't shake the feeling that we will still fall just short. 

Even early season with Afobe our creation of chances was not all that and we were riding luck at the other end a bit- scoring more than anticipated certainly.

I think we could see some see some mad results across the board even more than usual in this last 9 games- but as it stands now, not wildly optimistic of playoffs for the reasons you state.

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15 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Even early season with Afobe our creation of chances was not all that and we were riding luck at the other end a bit- scoring more than anticipated certainly.

I think we could see some see some mad results across the board even more than usual in this last 9 games- but as it stands now, not wildly optimistic of playoffs for the reasons you state.

I think one thing I heard was that results in Germany suggest that without fans home advantage is essentially gone. It's obviously a tiny sample size when compared to the thousands of matches that show that home advantage generally exists, so take it with a pinch of salt. But given that the popular narrative was that we were worse at home than away...maybe the fact we have 5 of the 9 at home could actually help us?

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1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

I think one thing I heard was that results in Germany suggest that without fans home advantage is essentially gone. It's obviously a tiny sample size when compared to the thousands of matches that show that home advantage generally exists, so take it with a pinch of salt. But given that the popular narrative was that we were worse at home than away...maybe the fact we have 5 of the 9 at home could actually help us?

Yeah, it could have an impact- no fans, referees won't be swayed- home advantage or advantage of a big and vocal away following, these will be negated.

On the chance thing, took a quick look at our 5 games with Afobe, using stats on Sky Sports as my source:

53 shot- that's not shots on target but shots verbatim, 9 goals. I know it was 10, Hull scored an own goal too but statistically in that model, so I'm using simple shots to goals but excluding own goals in my basic model.

9 shots, 53 goals- about 16.98% or 1 in 6. Just not sustainable IMO over any grand length of time. Those are midtable chance creation numbers.

Let alone the number we were 'allowing'- it's not the full story for sure, but it's indicative of a midtable side at best, that underlying number.

Had a quick look at the numbers down the other end too.

Vs Middlesbrough, they alone had 21 shots- it was a thrilling end to end game in the sunshine but it was end to end- they scored two goals but one was an own goal by Moore so how we weight these I dunno...

Anyway, we conceded 79 shots in those 5 games- that's dreadful, yet only 5 goals- 4 when you weight shots to goals ratio without the own goal. That's really quite unsustainable.

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36 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Yeah, it could have an impact- no fans, referees won't be swayed- home advantage or advantage of a big and vocal away following, these will be negated.

On the chance thing, took a quick look at our 5 games with Afobe, using stats on Sky Sports as my source:

53 shot- that's not shots on target but shots verbatim, 9 goals. I know it was 10, Hull scored an own goal too but statistically in that model, so I'm using simple shots to goals but excluding own goals in my basic model.

9 shots, 53 goals- about 16.98% or 1 in 6. Just not sustainable IMO over any grand length of time. Those are midtable chance creation numbers.

Let alone the number we were 'allowing'- it's not the full story for sure, but it's indicative of a midtable side at best, that underlying number.

Had a quick look at the numbers down the other end too.

Vs Middlesbrough, they alone had 21 shots- it was a thrilling end to end game in the sunshine but it was end to end- they scored two goals but one was an own goal by Moore so how we weight these I dunno...

Anyway, we conceded 79 shots in those 5 games- that's dreadful, yet only 5 goals- 4 when you weight shots to goals ratio without the own goal. That's really quite unsustainable.

Mate I know, I was tracking all the shots etc all season. This is what I have for the reverse fixtures of the 9 we have left to play. The only consolation was always that if you looked at and trusted xG then our shots were generally better quality than our opponents, but that is a limited stat.

      Shots Shots on Target
Match Opponent Home/Away For Against Delta For Against Delta
1 Hull A 10 16 -6 4 6 -2
2 Middlesbrough H 18 21 -3 5 6 -1
3 Stoke A 12 11 1 4 3 1
4 Swansea H 11 15 -4 2 2 0
5 Preston A 15 9 6 3 7 -4
6 Cardiff A 6 16 -10 2 3 -1
7 Nottingham Forest H 7 12 -5 0 3 -3
8 Blackburn H 6 8 -2 1 5 -4
9 Sheffield Wednesday A 3 15 -12 1 6 -5
T     88 123 -35 22 41 -19
AVE     9.78 13.67 -3.89 2.44 4.56 -2.11

God I'm glad we can get back to speculating on games again.

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6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Mate I know, I was tracking all the shots etc all season. This is what I have for the reverse fixtures of the 9 we have left to play. The only consolation was always that if you looked at and trusted xG then our shots were generally better quality than our opponents, but that is a limited stat.

 

      Shots Shots on Target
Match Opponent Home/Away For Against Delta For Against Delta
1 Hull A 10 16 -6 4 6 -2
2 Middlesbrough H 18 21 -3 5 6 -1
3 Stoke A 12 11 1 4 3 1
4 Swansea H 11 15 -4 2 2 0
5 Preston A 15 9 6 3 7 -4
6 Cardiff A 6 16 -10 2 3 -1
7 Nottingham Forest H 7 12 -5 0 3 -3
8 Blackburn H 6 8 -2 1 5 -4
9 Sheffield Wednesday A 3 15 -12 1 6 -5
T     88 123 -35 22 41 -19
AVE     9.78 13.67 -3.89 2.44 4.56 -2.11

God I'm glad we can get back to speculating on games again.

Nice work! Quality of shots can provide scope for outliers I guess. Perhaps we are and come May might be that outlier. 

It really is. Have thought about it and am bit more optimistic about making the playoffs now.

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17 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Nice work! Quality of shots can provide scope for outliers I guess. Perhaps we are and come May might be that outlier. 

 

Biggest thing I recall was that we basically never shoot from outside the box. I think we've got one goal all season - Brownhill v Cardiff. Our rate of shooting from range was way, way below the league average and IIRC we were either 23rd or 24th in that metric. This explains generally why a) we have fewer shots, and b) why those we have get given higher xG ratings.

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6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Biggest thing I recall was that we basically never shoot from outside the box. I think we've got one goal all season - Brownhill v Cardiff. Our rate of shooting from range was way, way below the league average and IIRC we were either 23rd or 24th in that metric. This explains generally why a) we have fewer shots, and b) why those we have get given higher xG ratings.

This is true. Was looking at those stats for shots for, shots against, both in general and on target and midtable was very optimistic. Bottom 4/Bottom 5!

However, as you say quality of chances. Even with that weighted and factored in, it doesn't feel enough for the playoffs.

Let's be that outlier though! Let's do it.

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Really very difficult to choose, Benik has played very little football all season because of that injury so he may feel he’s fit now, but he isn’t going to be 100% match fit.

Fam has his critics but is physically our most imposing striker, was in excellent all round form pre lockdown & improves us defensively.

Nakhi is the most clinical finisher, has scored the most goals of the 4 this season & may not get 90 minutes but seems to be the likeliest starter.

Andi is a smart player with superb stamina but hasn’t scored a goal in 2020 so is more likely to feature either wide right or as a sub, I think.

I’d be inclined to start with Wells & Diedhiou myself but think it is more likely to be Wells & Afobe.

As others have said, 9 games over 3 and a bit weeks will probably see some rotation anyway & of course Afobe can’t feature in the Stoke game anyway.

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18 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

In general though, I'd be keen to see what Wells, Afobe and Weimann too- think it is more flexible and fluid.

And a nightmare for any defence having those 3 buzzing around them non stop. I do think we need to remember benik hasn’t played for about 9 months ish . He’ll be a bit rusty I’d imagine 

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28 minutes ago, steviestevieneville said:

And a nightmare for any defence having those 3 buzzing around them non stop. I do think we need to remember benik hasn’t played for about 9 months ish . He’ll be a bit rusty I’d imagine 

Conversely, don't forget that nobody has played for three months so I don't think he's going to be alone in being rusty!

Actually have a feeling the standard of football when it returns, especially in this heat, could be fairly turgid. But we'll see!

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57 minutes ago, The Journalist said:

Conversely, don't forget that nobody has played for three months so I don't think he's going to be alone in being rusty!

Actually have a feeling the standard of football when it returns, especially in this heat, could be fairly turgid. But we'll see!

The good thing for Afobe is that he’s had 10 extra weeks to be ready if you consider we might have seen him early April.

At that point it would’ve been a real gamble for us and Benik.  Only just recovered, no fitness in the tank, everyone else match sharp....it’s likely he would’ve looked well off the pace, despite his admirable determination.  He would probably have been tentative too.

Now, he’s had an extra 10 weeks to prove to himself he’s ready as well as us.  Everyone else isn’t match sharp now so it levels the playing field, which is good for Benik.  He’ll have been training at full-tilt, rather than tentatively building up.

I don’t think he’s gonna play 9 x 90, but he’s gonna play a serious part.

Id throw him straight in.

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9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

The good thing for Afobe is that he’s had 10 extra weeks to be ready if you consider we might have seen him early April.

At that point it would’ve been a real gamble for us and Benik.  Only just recovered, no fitness in the tank, everyone else match sharp....it’s likely he would’ve looked well off the pace, despite his admirable determination.  He would probably have been tentative too.

Now, he’s had an extra 10 weeks to prove to himself he’s ready as well as us.  Everyone else isn’t match sharp now so it levels the playing field, which is good for Benik.  He’ll have been training at full-tilt, rather than tentatively building up.

I don’t think he’s gonna play 9 x 90, but he’s gonna play a serious part.

Id throw him straight in.

Me too. He`ll only have eight games anyway as he won`t play v Stoke.

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On 01/06/2020 at 09:10, Dolman_Stand said:

When you look at the Leeds formation it is so unconventional and see's many players in a position thy wouldn't have played before but gives them so many attacking threats which is testament to Bielsa, hopefully we can find something similar.

No worries....

Tombola is polished,,oiled & raring to go.

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With the amount of games we have to play, I can see 

On 01/06/2020 at 19:01, GrahamC said:

Really very difficult to choose, Benik has played very little football all season because of that injury so he may feel he’s fit now, but he isn’t going to be 100% match fit.

Fam has his critics but is physically our most imposing striker, was in excellent all round form pre lockdown & improves us defensively.

Nakhi is the most clinical finisher, has scored the most goals of the 4 this season & may not get 90 minutes but seems to be the likeliest starter.

Andi is a smart player with superb stamina but hasn’t scored a goal in 2020 so is more likely to feature either wide right or as a sub, I think.

I’d be inclined to start with Wells & Diedhiou myself but think it is more likely to be Wells & Afobe.

As others have said, 9 games over 3 and a bit weeks will probably see some rotation anyway & of course Afobe can’t feature in the Stoke game anyway.

As they were saying on Talksport you are probably looking at 3 games in 10 days. So I expect plenty of rotation. I would put Afobe on the bench as one of our 5 subs for the first game along with Palmer and then introduce them on the hour mark replacing perhaps Fam & Wells. Then reverse it for the next game. Gives some playing time but not a full 90 mins for the first 2 or 3 games. 

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10 hours ago, E.G.Red said:

With the amount of games we have to play, I can see 

As they were saying on Talksport you are probably looking at 3 games in 10 days. So I expect plenty of rotation. I would put Afobe on the bench as one of our 5 subs for the first game along with Palmer and then introduce them on the hour mark replacing perhaps Fam & Wells. Then reverse it for the next game. Gives some playing time but not a full 90 mins for the first 2 or 3 games. 

I think It depends on the game situation on what subs to make and not being rigid / premeditating it. 

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