The return to early season form...a statistical outlier or just what we need?

[Mr Popodopolous]

I read on here periodically, calls for a return to the early season a) Team and b) Setup. I can see why because the results were good, performances in aspects certainly were impressive and it was quite entertaining. Yet I've been crunching the numbers from parts of early season- Sky Sports stat and indeed some recollections and for all the excellence of the first 11 games and in some ways we did very well due to all the injuries, the numbers- they're not good- except in the sense that the results clearly outstripped performances in a number of respects.

Let's say 3 different sets of analysis and 5 different metrics- Possession, Shots For, Shots Against, Shots On Target For, Shots on Target Against- reason for the against is the numbers that we were conceding, 'allowing'.

Firstly the first 11 games- per game:

1. Average Possession- 45.18% (maybe little movements either way with rounding).
2. Average Shots For- 11.54 (maybe 11.55 with rounding).
3. Average Shots Against- 15
4. Average Shots on Target For- 3.72 (Perhaps 3.73 with rounding).
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 3.90 (perhaps 3.91 with rounding).

The results were great and the Goals Per Game were not bad- but this belies the baseline performance...

This Baseline performance, It's not ideal! Tells me these are midtable to lower midtbale numbers- our Shots are clearly of a higher quality and some part of our defensive structure, setup allows us to concede less Shots on Target than we probably statistically should!

Then again there has been some desperately bad luck with injuries, Afobe got injured after 5 games, DaSilva on Day 1, didn't Kalas get injured after 4 or 5 games and Nagy on International duty- this is off the top of my head, Rowe certainly filled in manfully at LWB! Who knows how things might have gelled and clicked especially given a) New signings and b) Some rather talented players, some already at the club and some freshly added.

Even so though, I cannot help but think we had been riding our luck- but what a good signing Afobe was proving to be...

Talking of Afobe, those 5 games in which he played surely provided us with a better baseline.

Games with Afobe- this is included within the stats, from Birmingham away to Middlesbrough at home- per game:

1. Average Possession- 42.04% 
2. Average Shots For- 11
3. Average Shots Against- 16.80
4. Average Shots on Target For- 4
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 4.20

Some of these numbers are better but again can smack of midtable to lower midtable- perhaps when taken as a whole. 4 shots on target per game is not too bad but some of the other numbers make me less convinced, less relaxed...

I might add home and away splits too, goals for and against to shots ratio, weighted for- ie excluding own goals, perhaps differences with Kalas, Nagy in and out- DaSilva only played one game so it's hard to say and I think some of the stats may have been better had he been available- the one he played was vs probably the best side in the League in Leeds, slightly unfortunate!

In fact, even unluckier than I remembered- Nagy scored that great goal on home debut v QPR, looked good v Birmingham away and first half v QPR- then got injured! Then the Hungary thing only compounded it?

Still some of the baseline numbers, these make me cautious about a return to early season a) Team or b) Setup.

[Major Isewater]

6 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I read on here periodically, calls for a return to the early season a) Team and b) Setup. I can see why because the results were good, performances in aspects certainly were impressive and it was quite entertaining. Yet I've been crunching the numbers from parts of early season- Sky Sports stat and indeed some recollections and for all the excellence of the first 11 games and in some ways we did very well due to all the injuries, the numbers- they're not good- except in the sense that the results clearly outstripped performances in a number of respects.

Let's say 3 different sets of analysis and 5 different metrics- Possession, Shots For, Shots Against, Shots On Target For, Shots on Target Against- reason for the against is the numbers that we were conceding, 'allowing'.

Firstly the first 11 games- per game:

1. Average Possession- 45.18% (maybe little movements either way with rounding).
2. Average Shots For- 11.54 (maybe 11.55 with rounding).
3. Average Shots Against- 15
4. Average Shots on Target For- 3.72 (Perhaps 3.73 with rounding).
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 3.90 (perhaps 3.91 with rounding).

The results were great and the Goals Per Game were not bad- but this belies the baseline performance...

This Baseline performance, It's not ideal! Tells me these are midtable to lower midtbale numbers- our Shots are clearly of a higher quality and some part of our defensive structure, setup allows us to concede less Shots on Target than we probably statistically should!

Then again there has been some desperately bad luck with injuries, Afobe got injured after 5 games, DaSilva on Day 1, didn't Kalas get injured after 4 or 5 games and Nagy on International duty- this is off the top of my head, Rowe certainly filled in manfully at LWB! Who knows how things might have gelled and clicked especially given a) New signings and b) Some rather talented players, some already at the club and some freshly added.

Even so though, I cannot help but think we had been riding our luck- but what a good signing Afobe was proving to be...

Talking of Afobe, those 5 games in which he played surely provided us with a better baseline.

Games with Afobe- this is included within the stats, from Birmingham away to Middlesbrough at home- per game:

1. Average Possession- 42.04% 
2. Average Shots For- 11
3. Average Shots Against- 16.80
4. Average Shots on Target For- 4
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 4.20

Some of these numbers are better but again can smack of midtable to lower midtable- perhaps when taken as a whole. 4 shots on target per game is not too bad but some of the other numbers make me less convinced, less relaxed...

I might add home and away splits too, goals for and against to shots ratio, weighted for- ie excluding own goals, perhaps differences with Kalas, Nagy in and out- DaSilva only played one game so it's hard to say and I think some of the stats may have been better had he been available- the one he played was vs probably the best side in the League in Leeds, slightly unfortunate!

In fact, even unluckier than I remembered- Nagy scored that great goal on home debut v QPR, looked good v Birmingham away and first half v QPR- then got injured! Then the Hungary thing only compounded it?

Still some of the baseline numbers, these make me cautious about a return to early season a) Team or b) Setup.

[Fordy62]

9 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I read on here periodically, calls for a return to the early season a) Team and b) Setup. I can see why because the results were good, performances in aspects certainly were impressive and it was quite entertaining. Yet I've been crunching the numbers from parts of early season- Sky Sports stat and indeed some recollections and for all the excellence of the first 11 games and in some ways we did very well due to all the injuries, the numbers- they're not good- except in the sense that the results clearly outstripped performances in a number of respects.

Let's say 3 different sets of analysis and 5 different metrics- Possession, Shots For, Shots Against, Shots On Target For, Shots on Target Against- reason for the against is the numbers that we were conceding, 'allowing'.

Firstly the first 11 games- per game:

1. Average Possession- 45.18% (maybe little movements either way with rounding).
2. Average Shots For- 11.54 (maybe 11.55 with rounding).
3. Average Shots Against- 15
4. Average Shots on Target For- 3.72 (Perhaps 3.73 with rounding).
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 3.90 (perhaps 3.91 with rounding).

The results were great and the Goals Per Game were not bad- but this belies the baseline performance...

This Baseline performance, It's not ideal! Tells me these are midtable to lower midtbale numbers- our Shots are clearly of a higher quality and some part of our defensive structure, setup allows us to concede less Shots on Target than we probably statistically should!

Then again there has been some desperately bad luck with injuries, Afobe got injured after 5 games, DaSilva on Day 1, didn't Kalas get injured after 4 or 5 games and Nagy on International duty- this is off the top of my head, Rowe certainly filled in manfully at LWB! Who knows how things might have gelled and clicked especially given a) New signings and b) Some rather talented players, some already at the club and some freshly added.

Even so though, I cannot help but think we had been riding our luck- but what a good signing Afobe was proving to be...

Talking of Afobe, those 5 games in which he played surely provided us with a better baseline.

Games with Afobe- this is included within the stats, from Birmingham away to Middlesbrough at home- per game:

1. Average Possession- 42.04% 
2. Average Shots For- 11
3. Average Shots Against- 16.80
4. Average Shots on Target For- 4
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 4.20

Some of these numbers are better but again can smack of midtable to lower midtable- perhaps when taken as a whole. 4 shots on target per game is not too bad but some of the other numbers make me less convinced, less relaxed...

I might add home and away splits too, goals for and against to shots ratio, weighted for- ie excluding own goals, perhaps differences with Kalas, Nagy in and out- DaSilva only played one game so it's hard to say and I think some of the stats may have been better had he been available- the one he played was vs probably the best side in the League in Leeds, slightly unfortunate!

In fact, even unluckier than I remembered- Nagy scored that great goal on home debut v QPR, looked good v Birmingham away and first half v QPR- then got injured! Then the Hungary thing only compounded it?

Still some of the baseline numbers, these make me cautious about a return to early season a) Team or b) Setup.

I’m at work and so I haven’t really read your post in depth, so apologies if it’s covered, but if they’re the stats for early season when we were good (?) what are the stats like for the period after that?!

[mozo]

My personal abiding memory is that we just haven't played very well for most of the games this season. We were somehow in the top 4 despite looking a bit crap, and we didn't get any better when we slipped down the table.

We picked up points without being very impressive, and we dropped valuable points along the way. And at times we looked abject. 

Forget get back to old form. Let's start afresh!

[Davefevs]

13 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I read on here periodically, calls for a return to the early season a) Team and b) Setup. I can see why because the results were good, performances in aspects certainly were impressive and it was quite entertaining. Yet I've been crunching the numbers from parts of early season- Sky Sports stat and indeed some recollections and for all the excellence of the first 11 games and in some ways we did very well due to all the injuries, the numbers- they're not good- except in the sense that the results clearly outstripped performances in a number of respects.

Let's say 3 different sets of analysis and 5 different metrics- Possession, Shots For, Shots Against, Shots On Target For, Shots on Target Against- reason for the against is the numbers that we were conceding, 'allowing'.

Firstly the first 11 games- per game:

1. Average Possession- 45.18% (maybe little movements either way with rounding).
2. Average Shots For- 11.54 (maybe 11.55 with rounding).
3. Average Shots Against- 15
4. Average Shots on Target For- 3.72 (Perhaps 3.73 with rounding).
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 3.90 (perhaps 3.91 with rounding).

The results were great and the Goals Per Game were not bad- but this belies the baseline performance...

This Baseline performance, It's not ideal! Tells me these are midtable to lower midtbale numbers- our Shots are clearly of a higher quality and some part of our defensive structure, setup allows us to concede less Shots on Target than we probably statistically should!

Then again there has been some desperately bad luck with injuries, Afobe got injured after 5 games, DaSilva on Day 1, didn't Kalas get injured after 4 or 5 games and Nagy on International duty- this is off the top of my head, Rowe certainly filled in manfully at LWB! Who knows how things might have gelled and clicked especially given a) New signings and b) Some rather talented players, some already at the club and some freshly added.

Even so though, I cannot help but think we had been riding our luck- but what a good signing Afobe was proving to be...

Talking of Afobe, those 5 games in which he played surely provided us with a better baseline.

Games with Afobe- this is included within the stats, from Birmingham away to Middlesbrough at home- per game:

1. Average Possession- 42.04% 
2. Average Shots For- 11
3. Average Shots Against- 16.80
4. Average Shots on Target For- 4
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 4.20

Some of these numbers are better but again can smack of midtable to lower midtable- perhaps when taken as a whole. 4 shots on target per game is not too bad but some of the other numbers make me less convinced, less relaxed...

I might add home and away splits too, goals for and against to shots ratio, weighted for- ie excluding own goals, perhaps differences with Kalas, Nagy in and out- DaSilva only played one game so it's hard to say and I think some of the stats may have been better had he been available- the one he played was vs probably the best side in the League in Leeds, slightly unfortunate!

In fact, even unluckier than I remembered- Nagy scored that great goal on home debut v QPR, looked good v Birmingham away and first half v QPR- then got injured! Then the Hungary thing only compounded it?

Still some of the baseline numbers, these make me cautious about a return to early season a) Team or b) Setup.

As much as my love of numbers, at the end if the day the most important stats are Goals For and Goals Against each game.

With Afobe in the team we P5 W3 D2 GF10 GA5 PTS11

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

49 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

As much as my love of numbers, at the end if the day the most important stats are Goals For and Goals Against each game.

With Afobe in the team we P5 W3 D2 GF10 GA5 PTS11

 

Oh there's no doubt Afobe should play. We're better with him in the side for sure, and his conversion rate was strong. My one caveat is how sharp and fit might he be after so long without football?

I worry about aspects, though this is more about our overall setup.  That said think with the game and a half we had Nagy on the pitch we averaged 50% or slightly more possession. Sample size is small, as it's Birmingham away and first half V QPR.

Got injured around HT in the latter. That can give a bit more security, control- easing pressure on defence. 

Also wonder how sustainable those results with a stronger than average conversion rate,  a relative lack of control in midfield and an allowance of quite a few chances at the back are.

[Rich]

Forget early season form and making comparisons. 

We are going to smash this last nine games. Win the play offs and get promoted to the Premier league.

We will be the club that gets no recognition for this achievement, no glory, claims of lucky, cries of derision from proper football clubs, accusations belittling the promotion.

But, who gives a shit. Bring it on and set us up for years to come, with clever management of the increased funding.

I can feel it in my water, it's what BCFC do. 

[Major Isewater]

2 hours ago, Rich said:

Forget early season form and making comparisons. 

We are going to smash this last nine games. Win the play offs and get promoted to the Premier league.

We will be the club that gets no recognition for this achievement, no glory, claims of lucky, cries of derision from proper football clubs, accusations belittling the promotion.

But, who gives a shit. Bring it on and set us up for years to come, with clever management of the increased funding.

I can feel it in my water, it's what BCFC do. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

I’m at work and so I haven’t really read your post in depth, so apologies if it’s covered, but if they’re the stats for early season when we were good (?) what are the stats like for the period after that?!

Nope, was just the 11 games.

Going to look at a) Those next 26 games- although maybe should break it down into chunks but that I can do that over time and b) The 37 games as a whole.

The following 26 games saw the following, statistics per game- simply number/matches:

1. Average Possession- 46.51%
2. Average Shots For- 9.61 (maybe 9.62 with rounding).
3. Average Shots Against- 15.03 (Maybe 15.04 with rounding).
4. Average Shots on Target For- 3.30 (Maybe 3.31 with rounding).
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 4.84 (Maybe 4.85 with rounding)

Actually the first 11 games does look like something pretty good to return to- problem is I'm unconvinced those numbers would be or would have been replicated or kept up in the medium to long run- in short, so far neither would appear to be good enough!

We're down, at times markedly so, in all but the possession metrics- and even the possession metrics aren't anything to write home about, don't smack of anything much greater than midtable IMO.

I think LJ has a muddled strategy, possibly. He wants X, but chooses Y to achieve it.

Perhaps I'll look at the conversion ratios vs save ratios for us- excluding own goals from shots in my model though I can stand corrected on it.

We do seem to be somewhat of an outlier thusfar...

[Fordy62]

16 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Nope, was just the 11 games.

Going to look at a) Those next 26 games- although maybe should break it down into chunks but that I can do that over time and b) The 37 games as a whole.

The following 26 games saw the following, statistics per game- simply number/matches:

1. Average Possession- 46.51%
2. Average Shots For- 9.61 (maybe 9.62 with rounding).
3. Average Shots Against- 15.03 (Maybe 15.04 with rounding).
4. Average Shots on Target For- 3.30 (Maybe 3.31 with rounding).
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 4.84 (Maybe 4.85 with rounding)

Actually the first 11 games does look like something pretty good to return to- problem is I'm unconvinced those numbers would be or would have been replicated or kept up in the medium to long run- in short, so far neither would appear to be good enough!

We're down, at times markedly so, in all but the possession metrics- and even the possession metrics aren't anything to write home about, don't smack of anything much greater than midtable IMO.

I think LJ has a muddled strategy, possibly. He wants X, but chooses Y to achieve it.

Perhaps I'll look at the conversion ratios vs save ratios for us- excluding own goals from shots in my model though I can stand corrected on it.

We do seem to be somewhat of an outlier thusfar...

I love your love of stats!

[Vincent Vega]

Streaky just needs a good streak and we're in the play-offs

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

While I think the stats are an interesting read there are too many variables to draw conclusions from. It is not only our form and stats we have to concern ourself with but also that of the opponents, such as who are they, are they a possession based team or otherwise, their success ratio, goals/shots ratio etc etc. As our style has evolved and changed, even within season, so might that of our opponents e. g. With Tammy leading the line, and everything going through Marlon Pack, we were a clear possession based side culminating in the 31 pass move that saw Tammy put the ball in the net at Blackburn. Despite the seemingly incessant passing across the back 4 this side get the ball forward quicker than most sides in the Championship and would never put over 30 passes together before a shot on goal (or losing possession). 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Vincent Vega said:

Streaky just needs a good streak and we're in the play-offs

We're probably due a good one or at least a reasonable one tbh. By law of averages.

The good news is that a lot of our rivals for the top 6, say Nottingham Forest and below, are also inconsistent. Certainly Preston and below!

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

I love your love of stats!

They're certainly not decisive but I do find they are, can be, a useful indicator. Of what we've seen, what might be to come and where we maybe heading.

I remember cautioning in October, November time using these metrics as a part of it that it couldn't last, our position near the top two (at that time) was an outlier, felt like an outlier.

On the flipside, the injuries we had were a nonsense. IIRC, Kalas, DaSilva, Nagy, Smith and Afobe.

Off the top of my head. Maybe Nagy was just returning but he certainly wasn't match fit- we were actually doing well to stay up there considering IMO but we never built on it. Got to build and plan from a position of strength and I don't think LJ did this!

9 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

While I think the stats are an interesting read there are too many variables to draw conclusions from. It is not only our form and stats we have to concern ourself with but also that of the opponents, such as who are they, are they a possession based team or otherwise, their success ratio, goals/shots ratio etc etc. As our style has evolved and changed, even within season, so might that of our opponents e. g. With Tammy leading the line, and everything going through Marlon Pack, we were a clear possession based side culminating in the 31 pass move that saw Tammy put the ball in the net at Blackburn. Despite the seemingly incessant passing across the back 4 this side get the ball forward quicker than most sides in the Championship and would never put over 30 passes together before a shot on goal (or losing possession). 

Agreed on decent chunks of this but I'd have to check the possession stats for that season. The manual way, the hard way. 

The 31 pass move at Blackburn was of course a very notable example but while we certainly had more possession that season, I'm unsure we were a possession dominant side. Talking an average of high 50s low 60s. 

I think we have the players though to control games more, to get more dominance- plus stability. Not saying high 50s-low 60s average but certainly stronger displays than we see.

I also think that baseline of performance won't get a side in top 6. Not even just possession but all the other metrics.

[Mr Popodopolous]

May as well take a look at our equivalent stats for 2016/17...I still think we could have gained more control- and notably Fulham at home stands out as a particularly naive shape, 4-4-2 vs a good passing side- Hegeler and AN Other- like a knife through butter at times! Overall though, definitely before my summary think we had better possession stats that year- perhaps better everything...except results and position!

[Mr Popodopolous]

Again using Sky Sports as source...per game as an average!

1. Average Possession- 49.68% 
2. Average Shots For- 14.69 (maybe 14.70 with rounding).
3. Average Shots Against- 13.34 (maybe 13.35 with rounding).
4. Average Shots on Target For- 4.45 (Perhaps 4.46 with rounding).
5. Average Shots on Target Against- 4.41

Funny- better in all but shots on target than the first 11 games yet a very up and down season! Certainly much worse than now..stats better in all other areas, metrics better in all other areas than games 12-37 this season, yet...

@RoystonFoote'snephew Undoubtedly we had technical ability and could put together a) Some great moves and b) Some good control of games but for that, and despite that, we nonetheless appeared to average a shade under 50% possession. Better in possession than now? Yes indeed. A possession first side? Perhaps not. Certainly not always.

Certainly if we compare it to currently, Leeds, Brentford, Fulham- and at times West Brom and at times Swansea this season...it's not necessarily there. Around or a shade under 50% can't really be IMO deemed to be possession first.

[Oh Louie louie]

Gary j was saying we need 6 wins, to make the play offs.

Tall order.

We are due some luck at this end of the season.

[mozo]

5 hours ago, Oh Louie louie said:

Gary j was saying we need 6 wins, to make the play offs.

Tall order.

We are due some luck at this end of the season.

6 wins looks really tough. 

In the first 4 games we would hope to beat a deflated Sheff Wed, then would be happy with one win from Cardiff, Blackburn and Forest.

So 2 wins down, 4 to go, with only 5 games remaining, including Swansea and Preston in the final 2 games. 

Our lads need to come back in sparkling form to get this over the line. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 hours ago, Oh Louie louie said:

We are due some luck at this end of the season.

Arguably we've been riding our luck at various times this season.

So I think we just need to be better- we must have used up a decent chunk of our luck quota by now.