Next 3 Games

[DC10]

Following today’s results do we think it’s probably fair to say that the next 3 games will make or break the rest of the season? 

The way all teams are dropping points up and down the table to be taking points from your nearest rivals has to be the priority. I’m not sure LJ knows his strongest 11 but I think he should avoid the temptation to rotate too much until the Hull/Boro games. 

[Selred]

Win tomorrow and we go 7th.

I would say the next 3 are key because if we do make the play offs we will need some momentum. 

Equally I think if we lose the next 3 then I don't see LJ being here next season. 

However if we have 1 win, a draw and a loss then I reckon we'd just fumble along to a 8th or 7th place damp finish and LJ will get another season. 

[Super]

Tomorrow for me is our last chance.

[weepywall]

Be surprised if we get anymore than 2 points from the next 3.

[GrahamC]

Don’t ever buy this “must win” stuff yet with so many teams dropping points but we probably need 7 points from the next 3, which on the basis of our form pre lockdown & after a dismal display last week, appears to be highly unlikely.

[Bar BS3]

1 hour ago, Super said:

Tomorrow for me is our last chance.

What a ridiculous comment. Fact! 

[Super]

5 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

What a ridiculous comment. Fact! 

Its a fact

[Bar BS3]

6 minutes ago, Super said:

Its a fact

No, it's really not. With 7 games remaining, it's just a ridiculous comment. 

[Super]

Just now, Bar BS3 said:

No, it's really not. With 7 games remaining, it's just a ridiculous comment. 

Given what we have left and the number of teams we have to get past. Its must win IMO

[Bar BS3]

1 minute ago, Super said:

Given what we have left and the number of teams we have to get past. Its must win IMO

Regardless, its not our "last chance" 

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Don’t ever buy this “must win” stuff yet with so many teams dropping points but we probably need 7 points from the next 3, which on the basis of our form pre lockdown & after a dismal display last week, appears to be highly unlikely.

So 2 out of 3 are must-win

and the other is must draw!!!

[Super]

2 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

Regardless, its not our "last chance" 

Ok maybe i worded it wrong. Jeez..

[GrahamC]

Just now, Davefevs said:

So 2 out of 3 are must-win

Hence the “yet” 

[Lrrr]

Think we can get win tomorrow, but Forest and Cardiff will be tough games, if we can avoid defeat in both of those then it won't be the worst situation, run in looks harder now after Warnock joining Boro, Hull winning today too, got to hope they don't get on a run next few games before we play them.

[OldlandReddies]

1 minute ago, hodge said:

Think we can get win tomorrow, but Forest and Cardiff will be tough games, if we can avoid defeat in both of those then it won't be the worst situation, run in looks harder now after Warnock joining Boro, Hull winning today too, got to hope they don't get on a run next few games before we play them.

Let's face it, EVERY game in the Championship is difficult. Always has been. Fantastic League. Far more open than boring old Premiership. Just ask Derby fans......

[downendcity]

GJ's maxim was that over a bank of 10 games  you should be aiming for 2 points per game as promotion form. On return there were 9 games left ( not quite 10) and, while other teams will drop points here and there,  I reckon that for it to be in our own hands we would need 18-20 points to take the last play off spot.

On that basis, last week's result means we are already playing catch up, especially as teams like Derby and Cardiff have hit the ground running. While tomorrow is not a "must win" losing would put us 4 points down on the 2 points per game target. That would mean we are playing catch up big time, and makes games like Cardiff and Preston real 6 pointers.

I think the team that takes 6 th place will be one that goes for it and at the moment, and based on our performances since the new year, it's a struggle to see that being us. Of course Lj might just surprise us but I'm finding it more of a struggle to see that now.  

 

[Lanterne Rouge]

34 minutes ago, hodge said:

Think we can get win tomorrow, but Forest and Cardiff will be tough games, if we can avoid defeat in both of those then it won't be the worst situation, run in looks harder now after Warnock joining Boro, Hull winning today too, got to hope they don't get on a run next few games before we play them.

Hull only drew in the end - Brum scored late on which should knock the stuffing out of them after leading twice and blowing it.

[Sir Geoff]

With our dismal goal difference we probably need 10 points from the next 9 to have any chance.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, downendcity said:

GJ's maxim was that over a bank of 10 games  you should be aiming for 2 points per game as promotion form. On return there were 9 games left ( not quite 10) and, while other teams will drop points here and there,  I reckon that for it to be in our own hands we would need 18-20 points to take the last play off spot.

On that basis, last week's result means we are already playing catch up, especially as teams like Derby and Cardiff have hit the ground running. While tomorrow is not a "must win" losing would put us 4 points down on the 2 points per game target. That would mean we are playing catch up big time, and makes games like Cardiff and Preston real 6 pointers.

I think the team that takes 6 th place will be one that goes for it and at the moment, and based on our performances since the new year, it's a struggle to see that being us. Of course Lj might just surprise us but I'm finding it more of a struggle to see that now.  

 

Wasn’t Gary’s maxim, 17 points from 10 for playoffs, 20 for promo?

[Bristol Oil Services]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Wasn’t Gary’s maxim, 17 points from 10 for playoffs, 20 for promo?

And how many shots at goal?

[OldlandReddies]

1 hour ago, downendcity said:

GJ's maxim was that over a bank of 10 games  you should be aiming for 2 points per game as promotion form. On return there were 9 games left ( not quite 10) and, while other teams will drop points here and there,  I reckon that for it to be in our own hands we would need 18-20 points to take the last play off spot.

On that basis, last week's result means we are already playing catch up, especially as teams like Derby and Cardiff have hit the ground running. While tomorrow is not a "must win" losing would put us 4 points down on the 2 points per game target. That would mean we are playing catch up big time, and makes games like Cardiff and Preston real 6 pointers.

I think the team that takes 6 th place will be one that goes for it and at the moment, and based on our performances since the new year, it's a struggle to see that being us. Of course Lj might just surprise us but I'm finding it more of a struggle to see that now.  

 

GJ and LJ bank on 17 points per every 10 games to hit playoff's. I haven't got the brains to work out what that equates to what we need from this point. Can anyone help ??

[OldlandReddies]

40 minutes ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

And how many shots at goal?

Think it was 9

[BS4 on Tour...]

1 hour ago, downendcity said:

GJ's maxim was that over a bank of 10 games  you should be aiming for 2 points per game as promotion form. On return there were 9 games left ( not quite 10) and, while other teams will drop points here and there,  I reckon that for it to be in our own hands we would need 18-20 points to take the last play off spot.

On that basis, last week's result means we are already playing catch up, especially as teams like Derby and Cardiff have hit the ground running. While tomorrow is not a "must win" losing would put us 4 points down on the 2 points per game target. That would mean we are playing catch up big time, and makes games like Cardiff and Preston real 6 pointers.

I think the team that takes 6 th place will be one that goes for it and at the moment, and based on our performances since the new year, it's a struggle to see that being us. Of course Lj might just surprise us but I'm finding it more of a struggle to see that now.  

 

So over 46 games then, not just 10 ...

[Davefevs]

6 minutes ago, OldlandReddies said:

GJ and LJ bank on 17 points per every 10 games to hit playoff's. I haven't got the brains to work out what that equates to what we need from this point. Can anyone help ??

A miracle.

46x1.7 = 78

23 points from 8 games.

Seriously though, you won’t need 78 to get 6th this season.

[downendcity]

37 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Wasn’t Gary’s maxim, 17 points from 10 for playoffs, 20 for promo?

That would be over a season.

Im thinking that we have to look at this group of 9 games as a mini season in itself - 5h1t or bust so to speak.  If it is to be in our own hands, so not relying on slip ups of others, then I think LJ should be aiming for 18 points.

Last week's selection, set up and result make it feels as though LJ is aiming for 9 points ( so not losing) and sneaking a win here and there as a bonus.This approach might conceivably see us fall over the line, but if it does I can't see that approach  getting us anywhere in the play offs. If we did got into the play offs by a positive approach then I would be much more confident of our chances through the play offs.

 

[downendcity]

1 minute ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

So over 46 games then, not just 10 ...

Ive just replied to Davefevs as follows...

1 minute ago, downendcity said:

That would be over a season.

Im thinking that we have to look at this group of 9 games as a mini season in itself - 5h1t or bust so to speak.  If it is to be in our own hands, so not relying on slip ups of others, then I think LJ should be aiming for 18 points.

Last week's selection, set up and result make it feels as though LJ is aiming for 9 points ( so not losing) and sneaking a win here and there as a bonus.This approach might conceivably see us fall over the line, but if it does I can't see that approach  getting us anywhere in the play offs. If we did got into the play offs by a positive approach then I would be much more confident of our chances through the play offs.

 

 

[ollywhyte]

7 minutes ago, OldlandReddies said:

GJ and LJ bank on 17 points per every 10 games to hit playoff's. I haven't got the brains to work out what that equates to what we need from this point. Can anyone help ??

Averages out at 1.7 points per game, so 1.7x46 = 78.2

23 points needed... don't think it will be quite that many! 74 I reckon

[ollywhyte]

Cardiff, currently in 6th have averaged 1.53 points per game on average this season. With that continued to the end of the season they would finish on 70 points.

But factoring in their form, I'd expect them to surpass that.

[Loco Rojo]

All this talk of making the playoffs feels so farcical given how we've been playing. 

It feels like these threads talking about winning the next 'X' games and getting 'X' points and making the playoffs is talking about a completely different City team full of confidence, on form, making a late charge for the playoffs where you actually feel confident they can win a game. Have people been watching our performances? If the season started 8 games ago (for example) we'd be battling relegation and there wouldn't be any talk of promotion - and this form doesn't look like improving. This season is over.  I admire peoples optimism, but this talk of making the playoffs is delusional, like people have forgotten about the mess we're in and think we're a completely different team.

I think a lot of decisions are needed by the City hierarchy during the off season and questions need to be asked about what Citys ambitions are and whether Lee is the right man for the job as, unfortunately i think he has taken us as far as he can (an established Championship side when you look at the overall season) but I think he's lost the team - not saying they dislike him, but just that they don't get what he's asking of them. Don't understand the tactics and don't beleive in them when they're on the pitch. 

Such a disapointing time to be a City fan right now.

[downendcity]

12 minutes ago, OldlandReddies said:

GJ and LJ bank on 17 points per every 10 games to hit playoff's. I haven't got the brains to work out what that equates to what we need from this point. Can anyone help ??

Ive mentioned in a other post that we are now in what is, effectively. a mini season.No team had any momentum or form coming into it because of the long lay off ( like a close/pre season) so everyone started from scratch, other than the league position and points totals they carried forward.

We started the resumption 1 point off of the play off places, but teams like Derby and Cardiff have already overtaken us ( albeit we have our game tomorrow) but we are already playing catch up as even a win against Wednesday will see a further point back and with our negative goal difference that is in essence a 3 point deficit.

There would appear to be 7 teams, including us,  vying for the last play off place.  We can't assume the other 6 will capitulate and some, like Derby and Cardiff, already have momentum. In view of this I think we need 18 points for a play off place to be in our hands and not dependant on the failure of others. It might be that everyone will struggle to string results together and a lower number will be sufficient.