Jump to content
IGNORED

Chris Hughton


Mattredrobin

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Just to clarify, those were merely the home stats. However that does seem very positive- our output has clearly outperformed our shot numbers this season!

Yes, would still mean nearly 45 home goals at AG though. However, also, just to clarify. I just checked and 15.18 is a very  high number. This was his Norwich side yes?

This season Leeds hit 16.4 per match, WBA 14.7 and Brentford 14.5. Quickly looking back over a few seasons and it looks as though generally only one or two teams breach that 15 shots per game line. However, if he could just get us up to 13 per game then we'd still be looking at scoring 77 goals in a season. That should give us +20 GD which is generally going to get you into the top 4 or 5.

Of course all predicated on maintaining our very good conversion rate, which is far from certain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yes, would still mean nearly 45 home goals at AG though. However, also, just to clarify. I just checked and 15.18 is a very  high number. This was his Norwich side yes?

This season Leeds hit 16.4 per match, WBA 14.7 and Brentford 14.5. Quickly looking back over a few seasons and it looks as though generally only one or two teams breach that 15 shots per game line. However, if he could just get us up to 13 per game then we'd still be looking at scoring 77 goals in a season. That should give us +20 GD which is generally going to get you into the top 4 or 5.

Of course all predicated on maintaining our very good conversion rate, which is far from certain.

Brighton, in the Championship. Part 2 and 3 all but complete, ie his two full seasons- a playoff (3rd, wasn't it)? and a promotion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Brighton, in the Championship. Part 2 and 3 all but complete, ie his two full seasons- a playoff (3rd, wasn't it)? and a promotion.

That was 15/16 no? Then they went up a season later. I know because that game at the end of 2017 was us ruining their promotion party, and simultaneously guaranteeing our safety, with a Brownhill goal to beat them 1-0, and I'd cycled from London to the Amex to see it!

13 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Just to clarify, those were merely the home stats. However that does seem very positive- our output has clearly outperformed our shot numbers this season!

If you like xG then it actually hasn't. Two independent xG sources, Infogol and E361 each estimate that our total season xG was around 60 (61.71 and 58.46 respectively). We scored 60.

Honestly it was just the sheer number of shots we took that let us down this season. Our conversion rate and accuracy figures suggest that had we managed to create and take a higher number of chances we'd have scored more goals. Hence my conclusion that the weakness is in the creativity of the midfield, and a clear instruction from the coaching staff to the players not to shoot unless in a very good position (shown also by the lack of shots from outside the box under LJ - this did pick up under Holden).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

That was 15/16 no? Then they went up a season later. I know because that game at the end of 2017 was us ruining their promotion party by beating them 1-0, and I'd cycled from London to the Amex to see it!

If you like xG then it actually hasn't. Two independent xG sources, Infogol and E361 each estimate that our total season xG was around 60 (61.71 and 58.46 respectively). We scored 60.

Honestly it was just the sheer number of shots we took that let us down this season. Our conversion rate and accuracy figures suggest that had we managed to create and take a higher number of chances we'd have scored more goals. Hence my conclusion that the weakness is in the creativity of the midfield, and a clear instruction from the coaching staff to the players not to shoot unless in a very good position (shown also by the lack of shots from outside the box under LJ - this did pick up under Holden).

Yeah, the stats I've been looking at, were his first half-season or thereabouts when he took over in 2014/15, when they were in a relegation scrap- and then his two full seasons.

Really? That's a btf of a turnup! We've seemed oddly clinical- different models perhaps but we're not so near the shot chart- I agree on the midfield (I blame the setup in a number of ways), and this lack of creativity manifested itself in a lack of chances created. My model fairly rudimentary, more of a look at divisional average conversion, and our relatively low shots yet goals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PART TWO

The 2015/16 season, but not inclusive of the playoffs.

PLAYED- 23

GOALS FOR- 40

GOALS AGAINST- 18

Average Shots FOR Per Game- 15.34 (15.35 with rounding maybe).

Average Shots on Target FOR Per Game- 5.09

Average Shots AGAINST Per Game- 10.30

Average Shots on Target AGAINST Per Game- 3.30

Average Possession Per Game- 

Conversion rate seemed fairly acceptable too. What was interesting is that the first 10 games yielded 176 shots and the last 13 177- clearly a change in tack there!

I am inputting the numbers from FootCharts for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons, for Brighton at home, as the total shots in 2015/16 at home seemed to correlate with my added up Sky figures!

PART THREE- SUCCESS AND PROMOTION

The 2016/17 season- VICTORY.

PLAYED- 23

GOALS FOR- 46

GOALS AGAINST- 14

Average Shots FOR Per Game- 14.30

Average Shots on Target FOR Per Game- 5.13

Average Shots AGAINST Per Game- 10.00

Average Shots on Target AGAINST Per Game- 2.87

Average Possession Per Game- 

Interestingly, the total shots went down, but so did shots conceded- and shots on target against- but shots on target up and Conversion rate undoubtedly up! Possession stats, I may add tomorrow or later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

PART TWO

The 2015/16 season, but not inclusive of the playoffs.

PLAYED- 23

GOALS FOR- 40

GOALS AGAINST- 18

Average Shots FOR Per Game- 15.34 (15.35 with rounding maybe).

Average Shots on Target FOR Per Game- 5.09

Average Shots AGAINST Per Game- 10.30

Average Shots on Target AGAINST Per Game- 3.30

Average Possession Per Game- 

Conversion rate seemed fairly acceptable too. What was interesting is that the first 10 games yielded 176 shots and the last 13 177- clearly a change in tack there!

I am inputting the numbers from FootCharts for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons, for Brighton at home, as the total shots in 2015/16 at home seemed to correlate with my added up Sky figures!

PART THREE- SUCCESS AND PROMOTION

The 2016/17 season- VICTORY.

PLAYED- 23

GOALS FOR- 46

GOALS AGAINST- 14

Average Shots FOR Per Game- 14.30

Average Shots on Target FOR Per Game- 5.13

Average Shots AGAINST Per Game- 10.00

Average Shots on Target AGAINST Per Game- 2.87

Average Possession Per Game- 

Interestingly, the total shots went down, but so did shots conceded- and shots on target against- but shots on target up and Conversion rate undoubtedly up! Possession stats, I may add tomorrow or later.

These numbers. These bloody numbers. I know we can't predict anything but I am so ready for 45 goals a season at Ashton Gate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

These numbers. These bloody numbers. I know we can't predict anything but I am so ready for 45 goals a season at Ashton Gate.

Give or take two a game- would be excellent- highly entertaining stuff!

Both fun, good- and entertaining! Shot dominance at home, certainly at this level looks to be a consistent feature of Hughton's philosophy. His ethos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Give or take two a game- would be excellent- highly entertaining stuff!

Both fun, good- and entertaining! Shot dominance at home, certainly at this level looks to be a feature of Hughton's philosophy.

Whatever the end result, if he can deliver shot dominance at home, then people will be happy, especially if we can maintain the clinical finishing we've shown this season. Nearly 2 goals a game at home means you don't lose many home games. The old adage of "win at home draw away" then comes into play and you start to dream of 80+ points in a season.

Thanks for putting the figures up. I hope everyone enjoys them when they wake up!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Whatever the end result, if he can deliver shot dominance at home, then people will be happy, especially if we can maintain the clinical finishing we've shown this season. Nearly 2 goals a game at home means you don't lose many home games. The old adage of "win at home draw away" then comes into play and you start to dream of 80+ points in a season.

Thanks for putting the figures up. I hope everyone enjoys them when they wake up!

No problem- it assuaged my concerns was as much for me to confirm or deny ;),

I had a few about his philosophy- this stuff looks good, very good! 2 goals or nearly at home, not a huge number conceded- yeah this looks good- play for some draws at home- and let's be honest last two seasons we've been pretty good away, in fact 2 and a half of the last 3 we've been strong ie up to the end of 2017 from August! Kind of thinking the away form (or at least record) may take care of itself a bit, LJ, Hughton or LJ Plus- ie the good bits of his away style, improved by Hughton.

Ha but forgot how good that away form was in the first half of 2017/18- we went 11 away unbeaten- us! Our best run away from home at this level since...?

(I know we've achieved a lot of strong away results last 2 seasons but 11 League successive away games unbeaten for us at this level- and the number of late goals we got- mental!) Would love to know when we last went 11 successive away games unbeaten or all but half a season, in the League at this level.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hughton and positivity or negativity. More positivity at home than us this season certainly- away from home I'm not so bothered, mix and match a bit.

Time at Brighton! The results are secondary in this analysis, odd though it sounds- looking at positivity, and how clinical a side might be, security and possession too.

PART ONE.

2014/15

From 31st December 2014 to end of season. At home.

PLAYED- 11

GOALS FOR- 14

GOALS AGAINST- 15

Average Shots FOR Per Game- 15.18

Average Shots on Target FOR Per Game- 4.90 (Could argue 4.91 with rounding).

Average Shots AGAINST Per Game- 11.81 (Maybe 11.82 with rounding).

Average Shots on Target AGAINST Per Game- 3.63 (Maybe 3.64 with rounding).

Average Possession Per Game- 53.52% (Maybe 53.53% with rounding).

In fairness, he did take over in a relegation scrap- he did his job- kept them up and did superbly in the coming years.

That's pretty good, positive- conversion rate aside! Bit end to end though, in a number of aspects. A bit above 50% possession too- ticks quite a few boxes, not least as it's a relegation scrap that he inherited.

 

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

If you take our lackadaisical yet clinical approach to shots from this season, and Bentley's save %, then these kind of numbers are incredibly positive.

To explain. We've needed 7.8 shots (2.5 on target) to score a goal this term, and opponents have been asked to take 14.5 (3.2 on target) in order to score.

Extrapolate all of these figures across a 46 game season. Hughton's 15.18 per game x 46 is 698.28 (massively up from the 467 we've taken this season), take that may shots at a scoring rate of 7.8 per goal and you get 89.5 goals scored, round it up to 90. Just use the shots on target figure and you get 4.9 x 46 as 225.4. Divide that by 2.5 and you're estimating 90.16 goals scored.

At the other end we allowed 689 shots this season, resulting in the concession of 65 goals. Take those Hughton numbers and apply our figures. 11.81 x 46 is 543.26. it took opposition teams on average 10.6 shots to score this year, so divide 543.26 by 10.6 and we could be looking at conceding 51.25 goals. Based on shots on target the expected concession number is 52.

So essentially, if Hughton could replicate those 2014/15 numbers and replicate our efficiency from this season we'd be looking at scoring 90 and conceding 52, aka a goal difference of 48. It is all caveated by the randomness of football, the different playing squads, and myriad of the variables, but the numbers are there to give hope. Those are automatic promotion numbers. They also give you an average score per match of 1.95 - 1.13 which means 3 goals a game at AG. Exciting to watch.

 

Would like to say... If you 2 ever find yourselves in Canada, and end up in Victoria. My house is your house. My missus would cook a nice dinner...  Subtly fade into the background and we could talk City.

Brilliant passion ... Just got to love it. 

Please bring decent cider. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems we have learned nothing from that mega long, Arsenal player "who was def coming here" thread; its not done until its done.

Wouldnt suprise me if a outsider comes through at the finish....like Plymouth manager or the like....."dont count your chickens" comes to mind.

One thing is certain a mega clear out and another re-build will happen and has started already (loan players leaving etc)

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SX227 said:

Cole Skuse has had a chat - done badges, but has been offered 1 yr play + 1 yr coaching at Ipswich.

Currently having a think - appointment in question at AG was midfield coach only NOT as a full assistant. 

FFS why do we keep wanting old players back as coaches and backroom staff......we need a totally fresh bunch with no old ties to the club ...that has been part of the problem with our previous coaching staff.

We need the new manager to bring in his own quality of coaching staff which are likely to be better than what we have at the moment and better than our ex players.

Also they won't have any preconceived views on any of the players and can start with a clean slate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Top Robin said:

FFS why do we keep wanting old players back as coaches and backroom staff......we need a totally fresh bunch with no old ties to the club ...that has been part of the problem with our previous coaching staff.

We need the new manager to bring in his own quality of coaching staff which are likely to be better than what we have at the moment and better than our ex players.

Also they won't have any preconceived views on any of the players and can start with a clean slate.

I agree with the majority of this, but I’d just make the point that having back room staff with links to the club is hugely valuable in understanding the club/fans “DNA”. If, for example, you look at Man City, Brian Kidd remains involved. Part of Wilders success at Sheffield is a bond with the fans, and the worst time I can remember as a city fan was under Pulis where there was no link to the club and understanding of the fans demands.

I’d in no way suggest appointing ex players for the hell of it. What I would say is that if we do have a wholesale coaching clearout, I’d imagine Hughton will use Murray as a confidant/sounding board for understanding of the club to avoid doing things that would alienate the fan base.

So, short answer - get rid of the coaches if needed but keeping Scott seems sensible!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

I agree with the majority of this, but I’d just make the point that having back room staff with links to the club is hugely valuable in understanding the club/fans “DNA”. If, for example, you look at Man City, Brian Kidd remains involved. Part of Wilders success at Sheffield is a bond with the fans, and the worst time I can remember as a city fan was under Pulis where there was no link to the club and understanding of the fans demands.

I’d in no way suggest appointing ex players for the hell of it. What I would say is that if we do have a wholesale coaching clearout, I’d imagine Hughton will use Murray as a confidant/sounding board for understanding of the club to avoid doing things that would alienate the fan base.

So, short answer - get rid of the coaches if needed but keeping Scott seems sensible!

I’d get in Louis Carey, if any.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

I agree with the majority of this, but I’d just make the point that having back room staff with links to the club is hugely valuable in understanding the club/fans “DNA”. If, for example, you look at Man City, Brian Kidd remains involved. Part of Wilders success at Sheffield is a bond with the fans, and the worst time I can remember as a city fan was under Pulis where there was no link to the club and understanding of the fans demands.

I’d in no way suggest appointing ex players for the hell of it. What I would say is that if we do have a wholesale coaching clearout, I’d imagine Hughton will use Murray as a confidant/sounding board for understanding of the club to avoid doing things that would alienate the fan base.

So, short answer - get rid of the coaches if needed but keeping Scott seems sensible!

Understanding Murray may be his biggest problem!!!

:dunno:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Dynamite Red said:

Colin Calderwood and Trollope seem the logical additions, are other names in the mix?

Rosenoir? Bruno? Could be outside choices.

Cool an ex sag and that muppet from our League 1 days, remember he didn’t have a lot nice to say about us - and to be fair nor did the Forest fans about him!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

I was thinking of him, too. Was at So’ton coaching U16s or so last I heard. 

Yes, listening to his “cider with” I think he’s really keen to get on in management. 
He could translate Bristoleze for CH too...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Top Robin said:

FFS why do we keep wanting old players back as coaches and backroom staff......we need a totally fresh bunch with no old ties to the club ...that has been part of the problem with our previous coaching staff.

We need the new manager to bring in his own quality of coaching staff which are likely to be better than what we have at the moment and better than our ex players.

Also they won't have any preconceived views on any of the players and can start with a clean slate.

Exactly and if that means we have Paul Trollope as Assistant Manager then so be it. Couldn't care less about rivalries with teams we haven't played for donkeys years.......this is about getting the most important appointments we have made in years right. Time for the football club to be professional and appoint the best it can get and not go through the old boys network. Notwithstanding that I can see that Scott Murray is clearly a great character to have around the club.......that is where the old boys network should begin and end imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

If you take our lackadaisical yet clinical approach to shots from this season, and Bentley's save %, then these kind of numbers are incredibly positive.

To explain. We've needed 7.8 shots (2.5 on target) to score a goal this term, and opponents have been asked to take 14.5 (3.2 on target) in order to score.

Extrapolate all of these figures across a 46 game season. Hughton's 15.18 per game x 46 is 698.28 (massively up from the 467 we've taken this season), take that may shots at a scoring rate of 7.8 per goal and you get 89.5 goals scored, round it up to 90. Just use the shots on target figure and you get 4.9 x 46 as 225.4. Divide that by 2.5 and you're estimating 90.16 goals scored.

At the other end we allowed 689 shots this season, resulting in the concession of 65 goals. Take those Hughton numbers and apply our figures. 11.81 x 46 is 543.26. it took opposition teams on average 10.6 shots to score this year, so divide 543.26 by 10.6 and we could be looking at conceding 51.25 goals. Based on shots on target the expected concession number is 52.

So essentially, if Hughton could replicate those 2014/15 numbers and replicate our efficiency from this season we'd be looking at scoring 90 and conceding 52, aka a goal difference of 48. It is all caveated by the randomness of football, the different playing squads, and myriad of the variables, but the numbers are there to give hope. Those are automatic promotion numbers. They also give you an average score per match of 1.95 - 1.13 which means 3 goals a game at AG. Exciting to watch.

 

? 90 - 52 is not 48! You weren’t educated at Magdalen as well were you?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

 

 

Do we really need another shoddy wind-up merchant on OTIB? 

Mods....?

I hope he isn't removed.  I've seen it's poor quality wind-up material for a while but it's slightly amusing in an unintentional off the wall way.  He gets a few bites as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Jerseybean said:

Envelope addressed and stamp affixed....

July 23rd 2020

Dear Chris

Welcome to our club. Congratulations on being appointed as head coach.

We are sure you will quickly discover what a superb football club and city you have joined. We thought we could perhaps accelerate your learning by offering some thoughts from us, the fans. Therefore, what follows has been distilled from comments posted on our brilliant forum OTIB. Which no doubt was mentioned during your interview. In case not please do check it out: https://www.otib.co.uk

OTIB is home to 17,357 Bristol City fans, from all over the world. It provides many things, not least of all a barometer of fan’s opinions and views. We thought that by collecting together comments from posters we could provide you with a useful insight from the fans perspective.

We also want to invite you to help us to help you. Although what follows is fans communicating with you, please do communicate with us, throughout your tenure and be clear about the things that we the fans can do to fully support you and the team.

Welcome

So to start with a genuinely, warm Bristol welcome. One other thing to mention early on is we are Bristol City and although there is only One Team in Bristol lots of us do not take kindly to being called Bristol.

Success

It is an obvious thing to say but for the avoidance of doubt we really, really, really want the same thing as you - success, which means promotion. Some fans want even more citing ‘playing decent football’, ‘playing with a bit of passion’, ‘giving youth a chance’, ‘semi-consistent tactics and team selection’ ‘entertainment,’ ‘excitement’ and ‘some attacking football would be greatly appreciated’.

Many of us have experienced a lifetime of ups-and-downs as City supporters (it has been a roller coaster at times) and on occasions being a City fan has been tough and certainly character building!  The media often refer to us as ‘a sleeping giant,’ which is another label some of us dislike, although in fairness it is a convenient sound bite.

Recent times

Although this is about the future, we want to tale a brief look back at the recent past next. A fair few OTIB regulars have, for some time, aired their views about the limitations of our ex-head coach, which one contributor summed up by saying ‘please help us to wipe our memories of the last two years of dross.’

Others have recognised that Lee Johnson stabilised the club and worked tirelessly but that ultimately the time was right, for all concerned, for a change.

Your predecessor was keen to talk about our ‘identity’ and ‘DNA’, although, to be honest, very few of us could confidently describe any particular ‘identity’. Any attempt to describe our recent ‘identity’ would certainly not involve many positives. Under your leadership, we would be delighted to applaud and support a style of play that is attractive, discernible and effective.

The hierarchy

Our hierarchy has worked very hard over recent years to embed a sustainable mentality throughout the club and we are indebted to them, most especially Steve Lansdown CBE, for the commitment, financial backing, loyalty, stewardship and dedication they bring. We believe that you are very fortunate to enjoy their backing.

Becoming a legend in the South West

Given you have just arrived at BS3 the next point seems horribly premature; nevertheless we feel it needs to be said. When you eventually part company with Bristol City Football Club can your legacy please include words such as - success, promotion, attractive, effective football rather than - sacked, left by mutual consent or other such euphemisms.

We love pride, passion and attacking intent here. If that can bring us the long overdue success of achieving top-flight football again, then you will become a legend and we hold our legends in very high esteem. You would never need to purchase a glass of fermented apple juice again in your lifetime!

OTIB

One poster suggested that you avoid reading OTIB, while others suggest that might be a schoolboy error, feeling you should subscribe, as there is much benefit to be had from the combined thoughts of the OTIB community.

Home form

You will not need us to point out that our home record is an important issue to be resolved. Many of us travel away too and have enjoyed some memorable away days over the last couple of years. However, Ashton Gate is not the fortress it needs to be. The synergy between what is happening on and off the pitch is critical. There are certainly things that might help which we as fans can do e.g. make more noise and provide positive encouragement. There are things the players can do e.g. play exciting, effective football and show some passion and there are things the club can do e.g. rethinking the area set aside for travelling fans, enlivening the atmosphere in various ways such as:

  1. Extending the singing section.
  2. More interaction with the fans on a match day would gee up the crowd and by taking a few moments to ‘rally the troops’ before kickoff, at half time and at the final whistle always goes down well and will maximize what can be fantastic support from the home faithful.  Indeed, you could do a lot worse than to very publically announce that you would like to ‘get the crowd bouncing around the ground.’ Which, in an instant, would enable the continuity of one of our most effective and unique chants.
  3. Achieving the permanent inclusion of some seats allocated to home fans in the Atyeo stand.

The stats

The critical statistic is the number of points we have been behind the team that finished second in the table over recent seasons:

2019/20 = 20 points

2018/19 = 19 points

2017/18 = 23 points

2016/17 = 39 points

2015/16 = 37 points

The match-day experience

Understandably, your focus will be on winning football matches; there are also a few off-field matters we would like to bring to your attention, although they will soon become apparent to you. Perhaps you could delegate somebody to sort out the appalling and legendary PA system at Ashton Gate, oh and please get ‘those lights’ turned off (you will soon know what we mean). While on the subject of basic match-day needs, a few of the internal concession outlets serving chips would most certainly go down well!

The rest

There were many other comments and suggestions, many of which were self- deprecating and testimony to the humour and banter within OTIB. Which is a rich blend of virtual terrace banter, informed, well considered debate, which is often incisive, forensic and spot-on, although sometimes banal and downright weird.

Finally

In summary, welcome, good luck, we look forward to entertaining football, which leads to promotion and please help us to help you and the team by communicating regularly with us and ensuring we really are the 12th man every time our team play.

Edited version.

Dear Chris,

Just do it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...