Jump to content

Welcome to One Team in Bristol - Bristol City Forums

Welcome to One Team in Bristol - Bristol City Forums, like most online communities you must register to view or post in our community, but don't worry this is a simple free process that requires minimal information for you to signup. Be a part of One Team in Bristol - Bristol City Forums by signing in or creating an account.

  • Start new topics and reply to others
  • Full access to all forums (not all viewable as guest)
  • Subscribe to topics and forums to get email updates
  • Get your own profile page and make new friends
  • Send personal messages to other members.
  • Support OTIB with a premium membership

IGNORED

Chris Hughton


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

So has he signed or what?

if so, why nothing on the OS?

Nothing has been announced yet as we've spent the evening going through Lez's CV. Once we've got all of his references back, Mark Ashton will decide between him and Hughton. 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Lez said:

No as previously mentioned I have a PHD in microbiology and virology so give the odd bit of advice and case work.

Yet you write as though you have just left infant school. In the top 1.5% of the country, education wise, and are unable to use a full stop appropriately. I have my doubts. 

Edited by James54De
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lez said:

I know couldnt be arsed to correct.

Right. I’ve just come home after a few beers, came on here to see if there was any Hughton update and it’s page after page of you being an insufferable bell sniff. I’m too pissed to care about learning how to block people so could you kindly sod off quietly please. Up the City.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Greedo said:

Right. I’ve just come home after a few beers, came on here to see if there was any Hughton update and it’s page after page of you being an insufferable bell sniff. I’m too pissed to care about learning how to block people so could you kindly sod off quietly please. Up the City.  

And yet after a few beers you can still spell correctly compared the a big brain academic continually making mistakes

  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Lrrr said:

And yet after a few beers you can still spell correctly compared the a big brain academic continually making mistakes

All in the autocorrect these days chief. Comes in handy when trying to undersell my pissedness to the Mrs. 

  • Haha 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 09/08/2018 at 21:45, Londoner said:

Bristol for the degree and London Met for the masters and doctorate

 

1 hour ago, Lez said:

Bristol 98-2000

Magdalen 00-02

Columbia university 03

Princeton 04

That's funny you said London Met after Bristol previously albeit under another pseudonym?

:yawn:

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hughton and positivity or negativity. More positivity at home than us this season certainly- away from home I'm not so bothered, mix and match a bit.

Time at Brighton! The results are secondary in this analysis, odd though it sounds- looking at positivity, and how clinical a side might be, security and possession too.

PART ONE.

2014/15

From 31st December 2014 to end of season. At home.

PLAYED- 11

GOALS FOR- 14

GOALS AGAINST- 15

Average Shots FOR Per Game- 15.18

Average Shots on Target FOR Per Game- 4.90 (Could argue 4.91 with rounding).

Average Shots AGAINST Per Game- 11.81 (Maybe 11.82 with rounding).

Average Shots on Target AGAINST Per Game- 3.63 (Maybe 3.64 with rounding).

Average Possession Per Game- 53.52% (Maybe 53.53% with rounding).

In fairness, he did take over in a relegation scrap- he did his job- kept them up and did superbly in the coming years.

That's pretty good, positive- conversion rate aside! Bit end to end though, in a number of aspects. A bit above 50% possession too- ticks quite a few boxes, not least as it's a relegation scrap that he inherited.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Average Shots FOR Per Game- 15.18

Average Shots on Target FOR Per Game- 4.90 (Could argue 4.91 with rounding).

Average Shots AGAINST Per Game- 11.81 (Maybe 11.82 with rounding).

Average Shots on Target AGAINST Per Game- 3.63 (Maybe 3.64 with rounding).

If you take our lackadaisical yet clinical approach to shots from this season, and Bentley's save %, then these kind of numbers are incredibly positive.

To explain. We've needed 7.8 shots (2.5 on target) to score a goal this term, and opponents have been asked to take 14.5 (3.2 on target) in order to score.

Extrapolate all of these figures across a 46 game season. Hughton's 15.18 per game x 46 is 698.28 (massively up from the 467 we've taken this season), take that may shots at a scoring rate of 7.8 per goal and you get 89.5 goals scored, round it up to 90. Just use the shots on target figure and you get 4.9 x 46 as 225.4. Divide that by 2.5 and you're estimating 90.16 goals scored.

At the other end we allowed 689 shots this season, resulting in the concession of 65 goals. Take those Hughton numbers and apply our figures. 11.81 x 46 is 543.26. it took opposition teams on average 10.6 shots to score this year, so divide 543.26 by 10.6 and we could be looking at conceding 51.25 goals. Based on shots on target the expected concession number is 52.

So essentially, if Hughton could replicate those 2014/15 numbers and replicate our efficiency from this season we'd be looking at scoring 90 and conceding 52, aka a goal difference of 48. It is all caveated by the randomness of football, the different playing squads, and myriad of the variables, but the numbers are there to give hope. Those are automatic promotion numbers. They also give you an average score per match of 1.95 - 1.13 which means 3 goals a game at AG. Exciting to watch.

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

If you take our lackadaisical yet clinical approach to shots from this season, and Bentley's save %, then these kind of numbers are incredibly positive.

To explain. We've needed 7.8 shots (2.5 on target) to score a goal this term, and opponents have been asked to take 14.5 (3.2 on target) in order to score.

Extrapolate all of these figures across a 46 game season. Hughton's 15.18 per game x 46 is 698.28 (massively up from the 467 we've taken this season), take that may shots at a scoring rate of 7.8 per goal and you get 89.5 goals scored, round it up to 90. Just use the shots on target figure and you get 4.9 x 46 as 225.4. Divide that by 2.5 and you're estimating 90.16 goals scored.

At the other end we allowed 689 shots this season, resulting in the concession of 65 goals. Take those Hughton numbers and apply our figures. 11.81 x 46 is 543.26. it took opposition teams on average 10.6 shots to score this year, so divide 543.26 by 10.6 and we could be looking at conceding 51.25 goals. Based on shots on target the expected concession number is 52.

So essentially, if Hughton could replicate those 2014/15 numbers and replicate our efficiency from this season we'd be looking at scoring 90 and conceding 52, aka a goal difference of 48. It is all caveated by the randomness of football, the different playing squads, and myriad of the variables, but the numbers are there to give hope. Those are automatic promotion numbers. They also give you an average score per match of 1.95 - 1.13 which means 3 goals a game at AG. Exciting to watch.

 

Just to clarify, those were merely the home stats. However that does seem very positive- our output has clearly outperformed our shot numbers this season!

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Just to clarify, those were merely the home stats. However that does seem very positive- our output has clearly outperformed our shot numbers this season!

Yes, would still mean nearly 45 home goals at AG though. However, also, just to clarify. I just checked and 15.18 is a very  high number. This was his Norwich side yes?

This season Leeds hit 16.4 per match, WBA 14.7 and Brentford 14.5. Quickly looking back over a few seasons and it looks as though generally only one or two teams breach that 15 shots per game line. However, if he could just get us up to 13 per game then we'd still be looking at scoring 77 goals in a season. That should give us +20 GD which is generally going to get you into the top 4 or 5.

Of course all predicated on maintaining our very good conversion rate, which is far from certain.

Edited by ExiledAjax
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yes, would still mean nearly 45 home goals at AG though. However, also, just to clarify. I just checked and 15.18 is a very  high number. This was his Norwich side yes?

This season Leeds hit 16.4 per match, WBA 14.7 and Brentford 14.5. Quickly looking back over a few seasons and it looks as though generally only one or two teams breach that 15 shots per game line. However, if he could just get us up to 13 per game then we'd still be looking at scoring 77 goals in a season. That should give us +20 GD which is generally going to get you into the top 4 or 5.

Of course all predicated on maintaining our very good conversion rate, which is far from certain.

Brighton, in the Championship. Part 2 and 3 all but complete, ie his two full seasons- a playoff (3rd, wasn't it)? and a promotion.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Brighton, in the Championship. Part 2 and 3 all but complete, ie his two full seasons- a playoff (3rd, wasn't it)? and a promotion.

That was 15/16 no? Then they went up a season later. I know because that game at the end of 2017 was us ruining their promotion party, and simultaneously guaranteeing our safety, with a Brownhill goal to beat them 1-0, and I'd cycled from London to the Amex to see it!

13 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Just to clarify, those were merely the home stats. However that does seem very positive- our output has clearly outperformed our shot numbers this season!

If you like xG then it actually hasn't. Two independent xG sources, Infogol and E361 each estimate that our total season xG was around 60 (61.71 and 58.46 respectively). We scored 60.

Honestly it was just the sheer number of shots we took that let us down this season. Our conversion rate and accuracy figures suggest that had we managed to create and take a higher number of chances we'd have scored more goals. Hence my conclusion that the weakness is in the creativity of the midfield, and a clear instruction from the coaching staff to the players not to shoot unless in a very good position (shown also by the lack of shots from outside the box under LJ - this did pick up under Holden).

Edited by ExiledAjax
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

That was 15/16 no? Then they went up a season later. I know because that game at the end of 2017 was us ruining their promotion party by beating them 1-0, and I'd cycled from London to the Amex to see it!

If you like xG then it actually hasn't. Two independent xG sources, Infogol and E361 each estimate that our total season xG was around 60 (61.71 and 58.46 respectively). We scored 60.

Honestly it was just the sheer number of shots we took that let us down this season. Our conversion rate and accuracy figures suggest that had we managed to create and take a higher number of chances we'd have scored more goals. Hence my conclusion that the weakness is in the creativity of the midfield, and a clear instruction from the coaching staff to the players not to shoot unless in a very good position (shown also by the lack of shots from outside the box under LJ - this did pick up under Holden).

Yeah, the stats I've been looking at, were his first half-season or thereabouts when he took over in 2014/15, when they were in a relegation scrap- and then his two full seasons.

Really? That's a btf of a turnup! We've seemed oddly clinical- different models perhaps but we're not so near the shot chart- I agree on the midfield (I blame the setup in a number of ways), and this lack of creativity manifested itself in a lack of chances created. My model fairly rudimentary, more of a look at divisional average conversion, and our relatively low shots yet goals.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • phantom changed the title to Chris Hughton

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...