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Tonight’s games


Dr Balls

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5 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said:

What is the xG bit? I see on stats after highlights, expected goals xG. Excuse my ignorance 

Data collected from thousands of shots, so it states the probability the shot from that place goes in, free kicks edge of the box are about .14 ie you score about 1 in 7 from that position. 

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7 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said:

What is the xG bit? I see on stats after highlights, expected goals xG. Excuse my ignorance 

Pretty much. It’s a mathematical model that gives a weighting for each chance you have and therefore alludes to calculate ‘given the chances you had, what is the average score you should have got’. Not sure of the actual numbers but a penalty might be 0.9, and a shot from 30 yards 0.05.

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2 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said:

What is the xG bit? I see on stats after highlights, expected goals xG. Excuse my ignorance 

It's a method used to try and quantify or 'prove' luck in football. Shots taken are each given a value based on various factors: distance from goal, who is taking it, speed of the ball, goalie position, number of players between the ball and the goal etc. Most shots will get a value of somewhere around 0.3. As an example a penalty would be between 0.8 and 0.85. By adding up the total of all shots you can attribute an "xG" value to a team's performance.

It's not perfect, and it's of little use when analysing a single game, but if you look at trends over a long run of games (say 30 or so) then it can become a useful indicator of whether a team has been getting lucky over that time.

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