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PNE (h) - Wednesday 19:30 - What Can We Expect?


Davefevs

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5 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

@Davefevs To be fair to Pearson, he has significantly improved his disciplinary record this season with 9 yellows, as opposed to 14 yellows & 3 reds (!) last season & 15 yellows & 1 red the year before.

Lots of rumours that he is off this summer (in the last year of his contract) so maybe his “injury” is as a result of that..

Worth asking whether your Preston slating is perhaps based on a fairly small sample size? I note but would have to look at the figures, that on the ball, in possession, they've averaged more possession than us at home certainly and maybe more shots as well. At AG a few times they were particularly ott but is that necessarily representative.

Sure they've 'bought' quite a few penalties this season however?

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1 minute ago, Lrrr said:

It may not be many people's choice but I'd be tempted to go with Wells and Weimann upfront. If Dasilva and whoever plays RWB do get that time and space try and have Weimann and Wells making runs between CB and FB to get in behind them, either they stay rigid and we can get balls in behind or someone has to follow the runner and open gaps in their back line. As with the picture of Watkins those horizontal runs across the backline could work if W&W coordinated their runs and could see Pato threading passes. Pato as you say will be key as well. I agree our CB's will split in possession 1 upfront for PNE means we can be patient in possession and see if their 3 in behind stay or come to support the forward. If they stay we would have to try and break them down but if they get drawn out again it will open gaps in their midfield especially with 3 CM's for us. I'd love us to get creative with our corners too.

Yep, essentially this feels like one for the "busy bees" to run hard, but smart, and test just how disciplined and rigid PNE can be. 

Then of course the second part of it is shooting. Rudd has similar stats this season to Bentley, How has Bentley been undone this year? Plenty of shots from a decent distance. Stretch that back four, create a gap, and fire a shot through from 15-20 yards. I expect though we'll see the line stretched, the gap made, and then an attempted short through ball to the edge of the 6 yard box which will either be swept up by Rudd or scuffed as our attacker runs his arse off trying to beat Rudd to it.

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1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yep, essentially this feels like one for the "busy bees" to run hard, but smart, and test just how disciplined and rigid PNE can be. 

Then of course the second part of it is shooting. Rudd has similar stats this season to Bentley, How has Bentley been undone this year? Plenty of shots from a decent distance. Stretch that back four, create a gap, and fire a shot through from 15-20 yards. I expect though we'll see the line stretched, the gap made, and then an attempted short through ball to the edge of the 6 yard box which will either be swept up by Rudd or scuffed as our attacker runs his arse off trying to beat Rudd to it.

Yeah I compared the goals Preston have scored vs the goals they've conceded, debate would be whether Preston score very close to the goal on average or not but the goals they've conceded are on average further away from the goal then the ones they scored.

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8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Worth asking whether your Preston slating is perhaps based on a fairly small sample size? I note but would have to look at the figures, that on the ball, in possession, they've averaged more possession than us at home certainly and maybe more shots as well. At AG a few times they were particularly ott but is that necessarily representative.

Sure they've 'bought' quite a few penalties this season however?

I know they are effective but I simply dislike the way they play.

They had 11 penalties prior to lockdown, largely based on their players throwing themselves theatrically to the floor.

Pearson, with around 47 bookings & 5 sendings off in the 3 seasons prior to this, typified their cynical side. At games against us if you didn’t watch the ball you would see loads going on..

When I have watched them they repeatedly break the game up, someone always stops the ball going back to the opposition so they can’t take a quick free kick, another (usually Daniel Johnson) stands right in front of the ball to slow it down even further.

At least once in the game (usually late on, if they are ahead) a player of theirs will go down with a “head” injury (in reality nothing of the sort) to further stop the game.

They’re spoilers, who are very difficult to play against, especially if you go behind.

I actually like their fans, when I went there they were lovely, their team is horrible though.

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12 hours ago, Lrrr said:

I think our fans call it out because I don’t remember a time where it’s been accepted to condoned for city players to do it, which is why we get frustrated when others do it. Add Warnock has been a fierce rival of city for over a decade now and his preferred style of play.

Our fans seem to revel in seeing opposition fans getting annoyed at it on social media and etc. Calling it shithousing and so on. Bit of a small time mentality but it's part and parcel of being an 'underdog' team I suppose.

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3 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I know they are effective but I simply dislike the way they play.

They had 11 penalties prior to lockdown, largely based on their players throwing themselves theatrically to the floor.

Pearson, with around 47 bookings & 5 sendings off in the 3 seasons prior to this, typified their cynical side. At games against us if you didn’t watch the ball you would see loads going on..

When I have watched them they repeatedly break the game up, someone always stops the ball going back to the opposition so they can’t take a quick free kick, another (usually Daniel Johnson) stands right in front of the ball to slow it down even further.

At least once in the game (usually late on, if they are ahead) a player of theirs will go down with a “head” injury (in reality nothing of the sort) to further stop the game.

They’re spoilers, who are very difficult to play against, especially if you go behind.

I actually like their fans, when I went there they were lovely, their team is horrible though.

Fair.

They have some very irritating tactics granted but the early season high scoring (ably assisted by penalties) at home, the at times reasonable possession stats, the at times quite high number of shots...seems to me that they are or have been a mix, possibly even same game (talking generally not just back us), of spoiler tactics and phases of positive play.

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11 minutes ago, Lrrr said:

It may not be many people's choice but I'd be tempted to go with Wells and Weimann upfront. If Dasilva and whoever plays RWB do get that time and space try and have Weimann and Wells making runs between CB and FB to get in behind them, either they stay rigid and we can get balls in behind or someone has to follow the runner and open gaps in their back line. As with the picture of Watkins those horizontal runs across the backline could work if W&W coordinated their runs and could see Pato threading passes. Pato as you say will be key as well. I agree our CB's will split in possession 1 upfront for PNE means we can be patient in possession and see if their 3 in behind stay or come to support the forward. If they stay we would have to try and break them down but if they get drawn out again it will open gaps in their midfield especially with 3 CM's for us. I'd love us to get creative with our corners too.

I wondered exactly the same.  Same 532, but go for pacier option up top.  Wells and Weimann looked ok v Fulham before the break, and I thought we looked a bit one-dimensional with Afobe v Swansea....he’s unfortunately looking a bit off the pace, no real surprise.  That ACL recovery does take time, although I hoped the mini-pre-season would give him a bit of an opportunity to “level-up”.

So that leaves a spot in midfield.  You’d think Nagy, but he’s used to playing from a deeper starting position, so I’m not keen.

But I’m gonna go left field, and plump for Watkins to partner Wells, and Weimann retain his place in the midfield.

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Depends if the players know a new manager is imminent (and watching) or not.

If he's there, I expect all the effort from those wanting to impress, and ideally 3 points against a Preston side who ought to be on holiday already.

If not, everyone's on holiday, and I think the match will reflect that.

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Tactical q for @Davefevs (one of your favourites :laughcont: ) and @Lrrr

One of Dave's favourites but in general, Preston and their 4-2-3-1...is it a 4-2-3-1 as in a purer 4-2-3-1 or more of a hybrid of that and 4-3-3- ie able to shift between the two?

Get the impression it's the latter, as opposed to the central player in the '3' being an out and out AM.

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5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Tactical q for @Davefevs (one of your favourites :laughcont: ) and @Lrrr

One of Dave's favourites but in general, Preston and their 4-2-3-1...is it a 4-2-3-1 as in a purer 4-2-3-1 or more of a hybrid of that and 4-3-3- ie able to shift between the two?

Get the impression it's the latter, as opposed to the central player in the '3' being an out and out AM.

I think it’s pretty fluid and depends a bit on who’s playing up top. One for @pnefcok really.

When they play a Maguire type, there’s a lot of contentment to play him on the shoulder / half turn and hit channels early, and then condense the pitch by pushing in behind it.

If Storey then the wide “forwards” might start narrower to pick up bits and pieces but midfield less keen to compress until they gain possession or we don’t have “good control” of possession. 

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1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

If Storey then the wide “forwards” might start narrower to pick up bits and pieces but midfield less keen to compress until they gain possession or we don’t have “good control” of possession. 

When a defender gets to go upfront 

Exploration | GEOGRAPHY EDUCATION | Teacher memes, The hobbit ...

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4 hours ago, Lrrr said:

Just had a quick go, watched some of Preston’s games against Birmingham and Brentford, just a few notes on shape and tactical style will leave @Davefevs to look at individual players if he wants.

They play a 4231 which seems to be their preferred choice style, but lately they have also played variations of 343, 451 and 352.

Against Birmingham in possession they played in a shape resembling 2431 seen below their full backs push higher than the centre mids who form a box with the centre backs maintaining balance of numbers. Out of possession at times dropped into a 4141.

image.png.037ed38d80f5fdb4d61421c38cc9fae8.png

Preston played Stockley upfront presenting the opportunity to hit him with long balls where he would either knock the ball down or flick on for one of Preston’s 3 behind him to run onto, if he plays against him he could peel onto one of the outside CB’s (Vyner potentially due to less experience) to try and gain an advantage with space behind our wing backs. This helped Preston where they seemed to try and get behind the defensive line to whip crosses or get cut backs back across the box.

Another characteristic of Preston’s shape is their preference for playing narrow, they stay compact and prefer not to go out to players leaving gaps. For City with wing backs could mean a lot of space for our players to operate in with Wells making runs. We can see the Brentford player has got ahead of his man with space to run into. PNE’s left back can’t move wider or it would leave a chance for Watkins to be played in.

image.png.a5fdaecabbe2c8cd57382efc87e691e8.png

Speaking of places for Ollie Watkins to run into, PNE seemed to have trouble with players drifting and making runs across their back line which lead to Brentford’s goal, Watkins makes a run along the back line with Benrahma slotting a pass. Note the narrowness of PNE’s back line again, lots of space for a RWB to get into an advanced position.

image.png.2c0b53527ac6cc48fbca98c712338947.png

Looking at Preston’s shot map for the season we can see a high density of shots between the penalty spot and into the 6 yard box, relates back to the idea of Preston looking to get in behind and get crosses/cut backs.

image.png.6def3990ead0a26293cdaac575711dae.png

Looking at their corners we can see a mixture of inswingers and outswingers from the left corner but from the right we see they tend to stick to outswingers. On their attacking corner tactics in recent games their bunch of players tends to run front post for a ball delivered into the group.

image.png.09c4b3c85332671dbbb840e00b5b67bc.png

Watch out for Bauer, who loops behind and looks to sweep up behind should the ball make it through the pack and recently resulted in a goal. Also watch out for Hughes (16) blocking markers for Stockley (20) recently had Wickham score after Baker was blocked from staying with his man, Preston could look to repeat that.

image.png.d907aeb266f9092875d9fd0dd393083e.png

On the defensive side of corners Preston use zonal marking, 4 men line the 6 yard box, one man front of the 6 yard box, leaves the player edge of the box with a big distance to man mid box and a chance to get a run on him as well as the number 3 at the back of the box unmarked as well. Zonal marking presenting the opportunity the flood the part of the box we think they’re weakest.

image.png.3d1a835e7d19a3f2faab28c21e07efbb.png

Thoughts @pnefcok?

Now that's the way you do it, others bad Davefevs take note. 

 

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