Other Manager Options (Merged)

[Northern Red]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

And?  His main competition for the last spot in midfield was other league one players.  It doesn't say anything either way about how he would cope in the Championship.  If it were possible to plan a squad to get promoted on paper we'd just let some random person with a copy of the Football Manager database do it.

Christ, don't give them ideas!

[BrizzleRed]

1 minute ago, JonDolman said:

For me I'd like a proper holding midfielder to replace Korey. 

Even maybe 2. As Morrell likes to break forward a lot it seems. And Walsh likes to as well.

If we get one in and they get injured then we might struggle in there.

Unless Vyner can do that role well. Interested to see how he plays in midfield. Aberdeen fans seemed quite impressed.

Think Morrell is a little more of the Smith type than Walsh.  

Good shout with Vyner too, as he’s shown in the last few games that he’s got some real promise and could well give us another midfield option.  Looks decent in the air too, which is something our midfield is lacking, since Pack left.

[Monkeh]

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

And?  His main competition for the last spot in midfield was other league one players.  It doesn't say anything either way about how he would cope in the Championship.  If it were possible to plan a squad to get promoted on paper we'd just let some random person with a copy of the Football Manager database do it.

Considering we arent going to have any money to spend on players or wages due to covid, I think you will be extremely disappointed,

I doubt we will sign a central midfielder (we need a defensive one) while we have szmodics Morrell and walsh all who had good seasons,

Any money we do spend (it won't be alot) will be spent on positions where we don't having any promising players out on loan or currently at the club ie right back and striker,

The reason we won't have any money to spend is covid, unless the efl loosen the  rules around owner investment 

[Bedred31]

Gregor suggesting that players with one year to go will be sold and that no money will be spent this window. If correct, whoever gets the job is going to have a lot less to work with then LJ enjoyed. I can see why Chris H might be wanting to tread carefully.

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, Northern Red said:

Christ, don't give them ideas!

Too late - you've heard all about the team of analysts working for Mark Ashton using stats databases right? It's just some work experience kids and FM Scout.

[Monkeh]

Just now, Nibor said:

Too late - you've heard all about the team of analysts working for Mark Ashton using stats databases right? It's just some work experience kids and FM Scout.

we lifted that from Brentford, and most modern clubs do the same now

1 minute ago, Bedred31 said:

Gregor suggesting that players with one year to go will be sold and that no money will be spent this window. If correct, whoever gets the job is going to have a lot less to work with then LJ enjoyed. I can see why Chris H might be wanting to tread carefully.

same at every club outside the prem,

Its to be expected when your main source of income is taken away from you 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Monkeh said:

Considering we arent going to have any money to spend on players or wages due to covid, I think you will be extremely disappointed,

I doubt we will sign a central midfielder (we need a defensive one) while we have szmodics Morrell and walsh all who had good seasons,

Any money we do spend (it won't be alot) will be spent on positions where we don't having any promising players out on loan or currently at the club ie right back and striker,

The reason we won't have any money to spend is covid, unless the efl loosen the  rules around owner investment 

What are you on about?

COVID isn't going to have much effect on spending in football, proportionally cash from gate receipts is small.

Our limit on spending will be FFP based which is spread over three years, only very slightly limited based on gate income in the first part of this season.

But that's all irrelevant to the main point: We need a manager in the door now looking at players before we let them go and miss out on others.

[Lrrr]

2 minutes ago, Bedred31 said:

Gregor suggesting that players with one year to go will be sold and that no money will be spent this window. If correct, whoever gets the job is going to have a lot less to work with then LJ enjoyed. I can see why Chris H might be wanting to tread carefully.

Hows this relevant? Whoever in the role this summer whether LJ was here this summer or whoever will be appointed was always going to have little/barely anything to spend and the reason isn't because not because their not LJ....

[Lrrr]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

What are you on about?

COVID isn't going to have much effect on spending in football, proportionally cash from gate receipts is small.

Our limit on spending will be FFP based which is spread over three years, only very slightly limited based on gate income in the first part of this season.

But that's all irrelevant to the main point: We need a manager in the door now looking at players before we let them go and miss out on others.

But potentially having to refund a hefty chunk of season ticket money could make a dent, until income returns to normal the club will need to take a cautious line.

[Monkeh]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

What are you on about?

COVID isn't going to have much effect on spending in football, proportionally cash from gate receipts is small.

Our limit on spending will be FFP based which is spread over three years, only very slightly limited based on gate income in the first part of this season.

But that's all irrelevant to the main point: We need a manager in the door now looking at players before we let them go and miss out on others.

yes it is, where do you think clubs outside the prem get their money from a tree?,

Its from fans though the turnstiles and corporate facilities

We don't have the luxury of multibillion TV contract or huge sponsorship deals with Adidas and our TV money is about 52 million split between 72 clubs

 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Lrrr said:

But potentially having to refund a hefty chunk of season ticket money could make a dent, until income returns to normal the club will need to take a cautious line.

In 18/19 we spent £24.6m just on wages.  Gate income was £6m.  It will make some difference, but not that much.  The rolling three year period helps to even that income dip's affect on spending out.  It may even be counter balanced to a degree by an increased TV income.  I'm not sure if a better solidarity payment (which is 50% more than ST sales) is negotiated yet but it stands to reason more people will buy TV if they can't attend.

5 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

yes it is, where do you think clubs outside the prem get their money from a tree?,

Its from fans though the turnstiles and corporate facilities

We don't have the luxury of multibillion TV contract or huge sponsorship deals with Adidas and our TV money is about 52 million split between 72 clubs

 

I know exactly where they get their income.  Based on your comments I suspect you don't.

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, mozo said:

Dave I'm surprised you see it as a tweak.

How many of Holden's squad of 20 v Preston will be regulars next year? Less than half, I'd imagine. Then there's reintegration of loanees and you're left with a dubious and imbalanced squad if you ask me.

I did accept its maybe bigger than a tweak, but it’s also realisation of our financial position post-covid...although it’s still better than lots of clubs.

Not sure if you saw this earlier.

if I was looking at a back 4 based system, let’s say 4231, as it’s the most popular (8 guess):

(players in brackets are from outside the highlighted list above)

GK: Bentley, O’Leary, (Wollacott) (Gilmartin)

RB: Hunt, Vyner

CB: Kalas, Baker, Moore new player

LB: Dasilva, Rowe (Pring)

CM: Morrell, Nagy, Massengo, Walsh new player

AM3: Eliasson, Paterson, Palmer, Szmodics, O’Dowda, Watkins (J.Smith)

CF: Diedhiou, Weimann, Wells, Semenyo

Thats your starting point.

In that set up, I think we are 2 players in key positions short....central midfield and centre back. If you could get a Benkovic-type on loan, and that much needed CM (loan or not) then everything else becomes a trade from that point.

Any I’ve not listed are candidates for loaning out.

Im sure, like me there are some players in that list you’d happily move on if you can get clubs to take them.

 

[TransferForum]

29 minutes ago, Nibor said:

And?  His main competition for the last spot in midfield was other league one players.  It doesn't say anything either way about how he would cope in the Championship.  If it were possible to plan a squad to get promoted on paper we'd just let some random person with a copy of the Football Manager database do it.

Not true he was ahead of Will Vaulks of Cardiff

[Mr Popodopolous]

15 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Considering we arent going to have any money to spend on players or wages due to covid, I think you will be extremely disappointed,

I doubt we will sign a central midfielder (we need a defensive one) while we have szmodics Morrell and walsh all who had good seasons,

Any money we do spend (it won't be alot) will be spent on positions where we don't having any promising players out on loan or currently at the club ie right back and striker,

The reason we won't have any money to spend is covid, unless the efl loosen the  rules around owner investment 

Think Morrell can play or shift into DM.

In the right setup of course. If we choose to play 2 genuine CMs it'll be a repetition of previous tactical failings in any case. Think he's more capable than the bulk of our CMs of not needing a 3 though.

[Mr Popodopolous]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I did accept its maybe bigger than a tweak, but it’s also realisation of our financial position post-covid...although it’s still better than lots of clubs.

Not sure if you saw this earlier.

if I was looking at a back 4 based system, let’s say 4231, as it’s the most popular (8 guess):

(players in brackets are from outside the highlighted list above)

GK: Bentley, O’Leary, (Wollacott) (Gilmartin)

RB: Hunt, Vyner

CB: Kalas, Baker, Moore new player

LB: Dasilva, Rowe (Pring)

CM: Morrell, Nagy, Massengo, Walsh new player

AM3: Eliasson, Paterson, Palmer, Szmodics, O’Dowda, Watkins (J.Smith)

CF: Diedhiou, Weimann, Wells, Semenyo

Thats your starting point.

In that set up, I think we are 2 players in key positions short....central midfield and centre back. If you could get a Benkovic-type on loan, and that much needed CM (loan or not) then everything else becomes a trade from that point.

Any I’ve not listed are candidates for loaning out.

Im sure, like me there are some players in that list you’d happily move on if you can get clubs to take them.

 

Ah but there's different types of 4-2-3-1 with tactical impact depending on the central player in the 3.

Walsh as central of the 3 would likely IMO be more balanced than say Palmer. I think quite a lot of these 4-2-3-1 systems have a player in the 3 that cam more easily morph into a central 3. Gallagher at Swansea springs to mind, so does Preston's 4-2-3-1

Whereas if we field Palmer, or even to an extent Paterson it can leave us adapting less quickly and therefore a bit more susceptible.

All that said, not a bad starting point for a new manager!

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, TransferForum said:

Not true he was ahead of Will Vaulks of Cardiff

Vaulks was in the last squad, I am talking about the two lads from Charlton who were not.

[Mr Popodopolous]

10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

In 18/19 we spent £24.6m just on wages.  Gate income was £6m.  It will make some difference, but not that much.  The rolling three year period helps to even that income dip's affect on spending out.  It may even be counter balanced to a degree by an increased TV income.  I'm not sure if a better solidarity payment (which is 50% more than ST sales) is negotiated yet but it stands to reason more people will buy TV if they can't attend.

I know exactly where they get their income.  Based on your comments I suspect you don't.

Don't underestimate the lack of event revenue, corporate revenue, small rebate to Sky, possibility sponsors will want to renegotiate certain terms, the impact of reduced attendance next season. 

It all stacks up. Lots of little things can lead to a big thing. 

We don't even know if a wage cap will be rolled out in 2020/21, that's still an ongoing issue.

Or failing that, how much FFP has been eased- or will be.

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

In 18/19 we spent £24.6m just on wages.  Gate income was £6m.  It will make some difference, but not that much.  The rolling three year period helps to even that income dip's affect on spending out.  It may even be counter balanced to a degree by an increased TV income.  I'm not sure if a better solidarity payment (which is 50% more than ST sales) is negotiated yet but it stands to reason more people will buy TV if they can't attend.

I know exactly where they get their income.  Based on your comments I suspect you don't.

Serious question, do you see our revenue increasing next season?

The tv deal is already in place, 5 year deal signed in 2018

How much of the season card revenue will they need to refund through lack of crowd attendance.  They won’t replace it with Robinstv subs, nor additional games on Sky.  Commercial income will be down as will match day revenue.

Plus Ashton Gate Ltd (part of Bristol City Holdings) which we use to report FFP numbers are rumoured to be have £8m losses....need to see that play out.

When MA talks about austerity, it is for a reason.

At best, I can see the new manager being able to spend what he generates.  Even LJ wasn’t allowed that, in better financial climes.

We are fortunate that we’ve built some contingency into our 3 year FFP cycle, but a lot if that will be used by up reduced revenues from the current season and next.

[Nibor]

Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

Don't underestimate the lack of event revenue, corporate revenue, small rebate to Sky, possibility sponsors will want to renegotiate certain terms, the impact of reduced attendance next season. 

It all stacks up. Lots of little things can lead to a big thing. 

We don't even know if a wage cap will be rolled out in 2020/21, that's still an ongoing issue.

Or failing that, how much FFP has been eased- or will be.

Event revenue, corporate revenue (that not included in gate receipts) isn't relevant to FFP or football club income though.

[TransferForum]

Just now, Nibor said:

Vaulks was in the last squad, I am talking about the two lads from Charlton who were not.

Vaulks was in several of the squads and Morrell was selected ahead of him

[Nibor]

Just now, Davefevs said:

Serious question, do you see our revenue increasing next season?

The tv deal is already in place, 5 year deal signed in 2018

Given that the proportion of normal revenue from gate receipts is so low, it's hard to tell.

The TV deal and the solidarity payment are separate things.

Player trading and amortisation can vary by ~£15-20m in either direction.

I'm not saying we'll be better off - far from it - but I am sure that given where the money comes from we won't see a dramatic reduction on spending in football on transfers or wages.

Certainly not to the point where the club will bet on a player who has had a good season in league one being a mainstay of a promotion chasing XI without a manager even looking at him.

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Event revenue, corporate revenue (that not included in gate receipts) isn't relevant to FFP or football club income though.

Quite sure it would make some sense to report the Bristol City Holdings for FFP. EFL have within their remit the ability to get the group results as the Reporting figures and quite right too otherwise you could like some clubs (*Cough* Derby "Cough*) seem to take the benefit of the income while hiving off costs elsewhere.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Event revenue, corporate revenue (that not included in gate receipts) isn't relevant to FFP or football club income though.

Corporate revenue excluded from FFP, dunno about that at all!

[Monkeh]

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Corporate revenue excluded from FFP, dunno about that at all!

Its part of match day revenue so it would be included

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Quite sure it would make some sense to report the Bristol City Holdings for FFP. EFL have within their remit the ability to get the group results as the Reporting figures and quite right too otherwise you could like some clubs (*Cough* Derby "Cough*) seem to take the benefit of the income while hiving off costs elsewhere.

There's a bunch of rules for what can be included, I don't think events that aren't match day are included - and I believe the FC numbers for season tickets include corporate season tickets - but I'm quite prepared for someone who knows better to prove me wrong.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Monkeh said:

Its part of match day revenue so it would be included

Pretty sure we Bristol City Holdings for FFP so yeah it would be.

[mozo]

18 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I did accept its maybe bigger than a tweak, but it’s also realisation of our financial position post-covid...although it’s still better than lots of clubs.

Not sure if you saw this earlier.

if I was looking at a back 4 based system, let’s say 4231, as it’s the most popular (8 guess):

(players in brackets are from outside the highlighted list above)

GK: Bentley, O’Leary, (Wollacott) (Gilmartin)

RB: Hunt, Vyner?

CB: Kalas, Baker, Moore? new player

LB: Dasilva, Rowe? (Pring)

CM: Morrell?, Nagy, Massengo, Walsh? new player

AM3: Eliasson, Paterson?, Palmer?, Szmodics?, O’Dowda?, Watkins (J.Smith)

CF: Diedhiou, Weimann, Wells, Semenyo?

Thats your starting point.

In that set up, I think we are 2 players in key positions short....central midfield and centre back. If you could get a Benkovic-type on loan, and that much needed CM (loan or not) then everything else becomes a trade from that point.

Any I’ve not listed are candidates for loaning out.

Im sure, like me there are some players in that list you’d happily move on if you can get clubs to take them.

 

Dave, I've amended to reflect how I see the likely future matchday squad.

Underlined are the definite squad members. Strikethrough won't be involved. And a load of question marks? for those that are either unproven or dubious that they are fit for purpose.  Add to that, Baker and Hunt may need to be upgraded in the next 12 months, and I guess you could argue that Morrell and Walsh are mandated to be involved. Depending on the verdict of the forthcoming gaffer, there could be a huge amount of upheaval and rebuild.

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Pretty sure we Bristol City Holdings for FFP so yeah it would be.

It's not as simple as just pointing at the accounts of an entity, there are a bunch of rules about what is relevant income and expenditure that have to be applied.  Where those lines are gets interesting particularly when dealing with assets like Ashton Gate.  BCFC Holdings owns the stadium and FC and is in turn owned by Pula which owns the Rugby too.  Does the rugby club's rent for example count towards BCFC's relevant income?  If there's a conference at the stadium which is nothing to do with sport does it count for either club, neither or both?  I'd suggest that this is not obvious even if you go and try and read the rules.

[Davefevs]

26 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Given that the proportion of normal revenue from gate receipts is so low, it's hard to tell.

The TV deal and the solidarity payment are separate things.

Player trading and amortisation can vary by ~£15-20m in either direction.

I'm not saying we'll be better off - far from it - but I am sure that given where the money comes from we won't see a dramatic reduction on spending in football on transfers or wages.

Certainly not to the point where the club will bet on a player who has had a good season in league one being a mainstay of a promotion chasing XI without a manager even looking at him.

For info, Amortisation Costs will have increased in 19/20 season, by several millions by virtue of the fees we paid last summer.  Webster was the only player we sold last summer who had any tangible amortisation figure (£0.875m pa) on our books.  LJ spent over £20m, amortised at about £6.5m per annum.  That’s quite a millstone around our neck, unless new manager trades those players.

Players who’ve left this season has tiny amortisation values:

• Pack - negligible if not already realised as £0
• Smith - zero as fully amortised
• Taylor - zero as fully amortised
• Wright - zero as fully amortised
• Brownhill - tiny
• Eisa - £333k if he did cost £1 initially
• Maenpaa - zero as fully amortised

I was predicting an £18m loss for 19/20 before covid struck....that’s with transfer profit included.

20/21 has a starting point of a £20-25m loss before we start trading.

That to me says we won’t be spending on fees and wages like previous year....but I suspect the new manager will be delighted if you’re prediction is more accurate.

Re solidarity payments, I thought the proposal last year was only for Lg1/2 clubs in the wake of Bury’s demise.  Happy if you’ve got better news there?

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, mozo said:

Dave, I've amended to reflect how I see the likely future matchday squad.

Underlined are the definite squad members. Strikethrough won't be involved. And a load of question marks? for those that are either unproven or dubious that they are fit for purpose.  Add to that, Baker and Hunt may need to be upgraded in the next 12 months, and I guess you could argue that Morrell and Walsh are mandated to be involved. Depending on the verdict of the forthcoming gaffer, there could be a huge amount of upheaval and rebuild.

Don’t disagree with any of your rationale. Think it’s more the post-covid financial state that will drive some of your question marks turning into underlined players.

Eliasson and Diedhiou are gonna tell us a lot about the state of play I reckon.