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Getting Real


Bat Fastard

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3 hours ago, Bat Fastard said:

It has become clear that there may be a very difficult set of financial circumstances facing our club and others in our division. Our own @MrPopodopolous has set out these concerns very well in a different thread. 

Our squad is in need of supplementation and there will be comings and goings as usual, but our ambitions will be tempered by financial constraints.

Our strength in the youth department gives cause for optimism and it seems that the board have decided to double down on our original strategy of developing youth - both for sale and to build the first team.  The new additions reported in the Bristol Post show that the efforts to leverage the youth policy will effectively be put on steroids.

Our new head coach has the advantage of being very well known and is obviously admired by the board, players and others in the club.  What he may lack in experience can be made up by his knowledge of the club and players and willingness to adhere to our corporate strategy. He also fits in with the budget and is the continuity candidate because a new experienced manager may well have wanted to make very expensive changes to playing squad, staff and modus operandi. Everything the board appear to have decided so far looks sound and logical from the perspective of what is best for our long term interests and gets us over the, hopefully, short term financial obstacles.

Given all this, maybe it is about time for the fans to be rather more understanding of the owner and board and to come to terms with the fact that we are living in unprecedented times and we will need to make wise and prudent decisions to benefit in the long run. Give the plans a chance to work by boosting them with your total support. Bury the negatives because we are not able to do much to change the landscape in which we have to operate. 

Try being supporters rather than antagonistic critics. This does not apply to all - but there are some who need to consider this carefully. Just get real!

 

This is all fine and well understood. But it is not how the club projects itself in media and to the fans. The club talk openly about top 6 and Premier League being an aim. SL also spoke recently about going to the next level.  The history books show that you need experienced players and a manager to do that. You dont do it, or rarely do it, with unproven coaches and youth team players. Many of our youth team are not ready for top end Championship football. 

With respect, Holden is not the next level up if he is appointed and that flies in the face of SL's own words. He is in fact several levels below Johnson. The impact of Covid 19 was clear when SL gave that interview on Talksport. Thus, the club must be more careful in the soundbytes it gives out. The fan base would be more amenable if the club were transparent about its plans. In fact, they give mixed messages and the decision making looks very poor indeed. Structures sometimes have to adapt to get the right people in and quite clearly whilst Johnson is the fall guy, others must also take responsibility for his failure to deliver.  

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1 hour ago, Monkeh said:

If money is so tight it isnt because eoff covid

Its because of ashtons scatter gun approach to transfers

The approach that has seen us make a profit of 21 million since he arrived?

I’d say that’s the last reason that money is tight at the moment...

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41 minutes ago, Spud55 said:

I think all of this talking about the financial implications only work if offered a binary choice of Hughton or Holden, but we know that is not the case, there are plenty of managers out there who have a CV far, far in excess of Holden that are not Chris Hughton, we have managers like Ryan Lowe who would absolutely not be demanding the salary or control that Hughton would be and had a managerial CV far, far ahead of Holden,

 

Yep, would have been happy with Lowe.

Another one who turned us down presumably because if the 'top names' were unavailable to us he's exactly the type of provenly successful, passionate individual the board could genuinely point to as a young manager with great potential, who offered a fresh start and breath of fresh air, and who could provide entertaining football and get the fans on side.

 

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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Agree.

there are two main differences between Holden and Hughton:

  • their respective salaries
  • their willingness to operate under a given recruitment and staff model

i believe playing budget (wages and fees) will be similar whoever got the job....covid impact already modelled.

? Exactly. 

Covid-19 is another excuse for them to use. There is no way a Manager like Hughton who is held in high regard would work with the likes of Mark Ashton and Jon Lansdown. Yeah, we had lots of interest like Lansdown said, but absolutely none of them would be interested if they knew the ins and outs of the club, which in my opinion has turned out to be the case.

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48 minutes ago, tin said:

Again, with respect, you need to step back from your own agenda or narrative and think objectively. Financial uncertainties due to COVID-19 may well be an elephant in the room, but - as outlined in my previous post - the board is not afraid to pay compo to LJ and JMc, compo to the FA and salaries for Downing and Simpson, and give our latest novice a pay rise. I would also say that spending, approved by the board, shows we are well within FFP. 

There is no ambition whatsoever here. You completely overlook the point about how internal appointments and this sort of management structure only works at the likes of FC Barcelona because it's a club steeped in tradition - international players winning the biggest trophies by playing at the very top level under the best coaches. Let's look SL's three amigos and the peaks of their playing careers for comparison - Downing (24 games in the old First Division with Stoke), Simpson (19 PL games at Derby), Holden (85 games for Oldham L1). What coaches have they played under and learnt off in those times? Joe Jordan, Jim Smith, Iain Dowie. Real pedigree, that. 

And what about the fans? FCB is owned by the fans, not a delusional dictator. I've said it before and I'll say it again - SL is a wonderful benefactor for BCFC, but shit when it comes to know absolutely anything about selecting managers. That's not my opinion, look back over the last 18 years and see that the only manager or head coach to go on to bigger and better things after leaving Ashton Gate was Tony Pulis. Our owner and his henchmen are deluded if they think this move will secure PL football. If I wasn't a City fan, I'd find it laughable. 

We do not know the ins and outs of compensation payments, new wages and the like. We are not Barcelona but a second tier English team with an owner. He might well be interested if fans clubbed together and made a takeover offer. I'm sure that all aspects of finances are carefully weighed before being made. We can only guess at what has been going on behind the scenes and how various personalities have interacted.  I worry about ascribing dark motives or insinuating that the board or SL are incompetent or lacking in ambition. These are normally conjured up by fans who are pissed off with some aspect of how things appear to be unfolding.  I very much doubt that SL or any of the board are delusional, but if many fans think that the vast problems can be ignored or set aside, then accusations may be made against them.

As for the experience of the coaches, we are entitled to assume that great care has gone into their selection because otherwise both MA, SL and the rest will have egg on their faces.  There is nothing that will stop mistakes from being made - but at least the board are in "the know" whereas most fans simply guess and grumble.  I guess but try not to grumble.

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16 minutes ago, JBFC II said:

The approach that has seen us make a profit of 21 million since he arrived?

I’d say that’s the last reason that money is tight at the moment...

If there is a profit then why is there cost cutting, the profit we made of the players we sold has been pissed up against the wall

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10 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

If there is a profit then why is there cost cutting, the profit we made of the players we sold has been pissed up against the wall

This. ✅

 In the 2019/20 accounts my calculations (best guesses in some cases where fees unknown) show we made £23.6m of “Transfer Profit” (it’s complicated!) and £0.5m in add-ons from previous sales.

We then spent £24m in fees....spread across the length of each contract, not counting:

  • signing on fees
  • agent fees
  • loan fees
  • nor increased wage bill

The accounts are going to show a loss again.

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11 minutes ago, AshtonGreat said:

Let's just say I miss the days when there was actually some excitement at Ashton Gate. It's all very boring when you attend matches nowadays.

Yep, what a massive and vitally needed lift an exciting appointment would make after 2 years of dreadful, tedious football at AG which would test the enthusiasm of even the most passionate fan.

Fortress Ashton Gate?

Snorefest AG morelike. :fastasleep:

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19 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

If there is a profit then why is there cost cutting, the profit we made of the players we sold has been pissed up against the wall

There’s cost cutting because under the current climate every company is struggling to make ends meet, that has nothing to do with our transfer dealings. Any examples of where money has been ‘pissed up the wall’, alongside your claim (that you’ve yet to back up) that we’re the ‘laughing stock of the championship’, it seems a slight overreaction to me

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1 minute ago, JBFC II said:

There’s cost cutting because under the current climate every company is struggling to make ends meet, that has nothing to do with our transfer dealings. Any examples of where money has been ‘pissed up the wall’, alongside your claim (that you’ve yet to back up) that we’re the ‘laughing stock of the championship’, it seems a slight overreaction to me

Again if it was cost cutting why wasn't Holden appointed immediately? Or why wasn't Johnson left in post if money was that much of a factor? 

Did we hope Hughton would turn up pissed and agree to the same conditions as Holden? 

There is no scenario where money is the deciding factor that this makes sense. 

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2 minutes ago, Spud55 said:

Again if it was cost cutting why wasn't Holden appointed immediately? Or why wasn't Johnson left in post if money was that much of a factor? 

Did we hope Hughton would turn up pissed and agree to the same conditions as Holden? 

There is no scenario where money is the deciding factor that this makes sense. 

My guess is we had a few options, such as Hughton, but perhaps they wanted money that we decided would put us in a difficult position financially. Nobody really knows what has gone on, all we can do now is support Holden and hope he can move us up the league

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4 minutes ago, JBFC II said:

My guess is we had a few options, such as Hughton, but perhaps they wanted money that we decided would put us in a difficult position financially. Nobody really knows what has gone on, all we can do now is support Holden and hope he can move us up the league

What about Lowe? Wellens? Sol Campbell? The numerous other managers that are not Hughton who are still a better choice than Holden, are we really saying we can't compete with Swindon or Plymouth? 

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58 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Agree.

there are two main differences between Holden and Hughton:

  • their respective salaries
  • their willingness to operate under a given recruitment and staff model

i believe playing budget (wages and fees) will be similar whoever got the job....covid impact already modelled.

I get the impression that before Hughton was spoken with, the club (i.e. JL/MA) assumed that he would accept the staff/recruitment model. 

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1 hour ago, Nibor said:

You can see pretty clearly from the accounts what the match day revenue for the club is in the context of all revenue.  We can understand the limit of the impact COVID-19 can have at maximum pretty clearly. 

FFP is a constraint but nothing new and I very much doubt SL has seen any real impact to his net worth or his income.  He is still very invested in HL, they just paid dividends and are trading at pre-COVID levels and there's no real reason to expect that to fall off because all a financial crisis and recovery will do is concentrate wealth further at the top, and those people are HL customers.

I very much doubt the club will clarify anything.  They will most likely put out a weak PR spin.

The accounts will be an historical record and although they indicate match day revenue, they do not predict what will happen if there is another shut down of everything. All the catering, merchandise and much else will be hit but many (not all) of the bills will still need to be paid.  We do not know if FFP will be an issue going forward and I would expect the board to be cautious and prudent in their approach.  

If you care to look at the FTSE100 and other indices, you will see that there is a severe impact from this covid inspired recession. Dividends are most certainly down (I live on them so can confirm this!) and if SL is widely invested he will have felt the cold wind blowing. Of course, if he was totally invested in the right IT stocks then he may have fared rather better - but they tend to pay little or no dividends.  I will ignore the political jibe because this if not the right forum.

The club will have to steer around confidentiality issues but they will come out with statements and interviews at some stage.

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The financial situation is being used as a reason why the cheap option of Dean Holden being appointed, but it is a two way thing. If Chris Hughton or any other manager ,is looking for a job, then they will have to accept that they will not be paid as much as they have in the past , and if they want a job ,they will have to accept the new reality. For all we know, Hughton or whoever else, may realise this. The main issue may not be having an acceptable level of control of the team, which would be a sticking point whatever the financial situation.

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lansdown clear mid table not enough - we needed to be challenging for promotion and achieving it pretty quickly.

covid 19 already fully in play and Implications fully  understood before LJ was sacked.

5 weeks later we have decided that Dean Holden is the best man for this - despite any real practical evidence or experience.

can’t be about managers salary   - as it would be business suicide to invest in new ground, training facilities and players and then not be willing to pay the going rate for the right person to translate this into better results on the pitch.

so - is  it simply about control and more experienced candidates wanting to be more empowered to make their own decisions if they are going to be held accountable for taking us to the next step and the promised land?

 

if so, we have been here before I think. Hopefully this time it turns out better....but it has to be seen as a gamble and one that is difficult to justify.

 

as a PR exercise it’s close to a disaster. Make big statement about ambition at outset and then take an inordinate amount of time to put in place a rookie caretaker who is already at the club and completely disappoint and frustrated support base. Make life difficult and potentially hostile for new appointee from the outset.

other coaching appointments are not really important are they? If they were then would not Holden have  been sacked along with LJ for underperforming?

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, ZiderEyed said:

I get the impression that before Hughton was spoken with, the club (i.e. JL/MA) assumed that he would accept the staff/recruitment model. 

Yes, which makes you wonder what MA and JL said with the respective agents and even preliminary chats with Hughton himself.

ive had several chats with recruitment agents, where they tell you about the job, and you go, “yeah, sounds really exciting, blah, blah, blah”, but you might go away and assess it or even during more detailed discussion realise it’s not for you.

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19 minutes ago, Spud55 said:

What about Lowe? Wellens? Sol Campbell? The numerous other managers that are not Hughton who are still a better choice than Holden, are we really saying we can't compete with Swindon or Plymouth? 

Perhaps they aren’t a better choice than Holden from what the board saw? It’s all very well us sitting here listing candidates we believe to be better choices but at the end of the day Ashton, Lansdown and co didn’t see it the same way

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4 hours ago, lager loud said:

Neither were you. You choose to adopt the most sympathetic - or is it sycophantic? - interpretation of the club’s decisions.

It’s equally possible that the mediocre coaching team it seems we’re about to be “sold” was put together because all the capable and experienced candidates wouldn’t work with the structures and egos at the club. The fact that we’ve apparently arrived at the day pre-season training was due to start without a management team in place hardly suggests a well-planned strategy has been in place.

As for supporting the club: I’ll keep paying to watch City if I consider it a good use of my money. A big part of that decision is whether I can get excited about the idea of going to a game. At times over the last couple if years it’s felt more like a chore than a treat. Nothing in these appointments makes me think that will be any different next season. At some point over the next few weeks the Club will have to give me some options on what to do about my SC. As things stand I’ll be taking whatever refund option is available, and spending the £500+ on something that has a higher probability of entertaining me.

Exactly my thoughts im sick of it all

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27 minutes ago, JBFC II said:

My guess is we had a few options, such as Hughton, but perhaps they wanted money that we decided would put us in a difficult position financially. Nobody really knows what has gone on, all we can do now is support Holden and hope he can move us up the league

:laugh:.

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57 minutes ago, Bat Fastard said:

We do not know the ins and outs of compensation payments, new wages and the like. We are not Barcelona but a second tier English team with an owner. He might well be interested if fans clubbed together and made a takeover offer. I'm sure that all aspects of finances are carefully weighed before being made. We can only guess at what has been going on behind the scenes and how various personalities have interacted.  I worry about ascribing dark motives or insinuating that the board or SL are incompetent or lacking in ambition. These are normally conjured up by fans who are pissed off with some aspect of how things appear to be unfolding.  I very much doubt that SL or any of the board are delusional, but if many fans think that the vast problems can be ignored or set aside, then accusations may be made against them.

As for the experience of the coaches, we are entitled to assume that great care has gone into their selection because otherwise both MA, SL and the rest will have egg on their faces.  There is nothing that will stop mistakes from being made - but at least the board are in "the know" whereas most fans simply guess and grumble.  I guess but try not to grumble.

I know we are not Barcelona, that is SL's goal. I don't insinuate the board's incompetence, I scrutinise SL's decision and wisdom to go down this route based on 18 years of previous managerial decisions and conclude they are as deluded as they are incompetent. He talks about admiring Burnley. Just like not knowing how FCB operate, does he not know that Burnley have a seven-man board of local guys done good each with their own opinions and it's not a dictatorship?

SL talked recently about LJ "not getting us over the line [into the PL] and feeling the need to make a change to get someone who can help us take the next step". Holden and his two amigos are not the men to do that, especially when SL admitted "we had a lot of good applicants". Bullshit baffles brains. 

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

bit disingenuous that, to just pick one part of their careers.  Simpson played top flight for Man City pre-PL era.  Managed by respected managers of the era like Billy McNeill and Jim Smith (as you mentioned).  Holden was Colin Todd and Sam Allardyce (who he had help from when at Oldham as manager).  

@Davefevs, I clearly stated that I was looking at the zenith of their careers and who they may have learnt under during those times. Solely with the intention of showing SL's vision for making City the Barcelona of the UK is flawed. We are an established second-tier club in need of an establish second-tier manager with experience of getting into the PL, as has been stated on many occasion by the board. 

 

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1 hour ago, 2015 said:

? Exactly. 

Covid-19 is another excuse for them to use. There is no way a Manager like Hughton who is held in high regard would work with the likes of Mark Ashton and Jon Lansdown. Yeah, we had lots of interest like Lansdown said, but absolutely none of them would be interested if they knew the ins and outs of the club, which in my opinion has turned out to be the case.

Who is this Chris Hughton?  Is he the Messiah* or something?  In that case, why has he been out of work so long?  Perhaps it’s not that he won’t work, with clubs, but more that clubs don’t want to work with him.

[*yes I know: he’s a very naughty boy, etc. etc.]

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Just now, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Who is this Chris Hughton?  Is he the Messiah* or something?  In that case, why has he been out of work so long?  Perhaps it’s not that he won’t work, with clubs, but more that clubs don’t want to work with him.

[*yes I know: he’s a very naughty boy, etc. etc.]

So would you rather have Dean Holden over Chris Hughton then? Not making out he was a messiah just a clear and obvious better option, no other club would have chose Holden over Hughton and don't even mention Bournemouth, a club just recently relegated from the Premier League with the players and squad to get back up if they wanted to.

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24 minutes ago, Bat Fastard said:

The accounts will be an historical record and although they indicate match day revenue, they do not predict what will happen if there is another shut down of everything. All the catering, merchandise and much else will be hit but many (not all) of the bills will still need to be paid.  We do not know if FFP will be an issue going forward and I would expect the board to be cautious and prudent in their approach.  

If you care to look at the FTSE100 and other indices, you will see that there is a severe impact from this covid inspired recession. Dividends are most certainly down (I live on them so can confirm this!) and if SL is widely invested he will have felt the cold wind blowing. Of course, if he was totally invested in the right IT stocks then he may have fared rather better - but they tend to pay little or no dividends.  I will ignore the political jibe because this if not the right forum.

The club will have to steer around confidentiality issues but they will come out with statements and interviews at some stage.

The point I'm making about the accounts is that they tell you what the maximum impact could be.  Everyone keeps talking as though matchday revenue is make or break, but it actually isn't. 

There's no political jibe in that post either, the effects of recessions and recoveries on wealth distribution are well documented over many years.

The indexes are generally half way back to pre-COVID prices and yes dividends are impacted but SL's wealth allows him to fund the club out of change he finds down the sofa.  It's really not a big deal for him and his investments outside HL will be diversified I am sure.  He was worth roughly £2bn before COVID.  Finding £8m to fund the maximum loss allowed under FFP will never be difficult for him under any circumstances.

This is all really irrelevant though, because simple common sense will tell you that hiring Holden (and two other coaches!) is not a decision based on budget.

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4 hours ago, LoyalRed said:

And ultimately set BCFC back 10 years, we will be relegation fodder next season.  The players are happy as they know they will be safe under Holden, collect their wage and under perform on a regular basis 

In a nutshell ? Some on here think appointing a mediocre coach who was part of our clubs problems as 1/3 of the coaching team will work because SL believes all other 23 clubs in the Championship will go bust leaving us with an automatic promotion next season. In 62 years of watching this club, you could not make it up, even Dominic Cummings would have problems spinning this

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