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The Owner’s and Board’s Plan


QuedgeRed

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19 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

We ran a profit of £11-12m- but based on £38m or thereabouts of disposal of player registrations- which was inclusive of the Kelly sale.

This financial year also included two concerts- Rod Stewart and Take That- as well as the World Cup Fans Village in the summer of 2018.

Despite the second two lines, we still made an Operating Loss of £26m which is fairly staggering!!

That in turn though is different to cash flow.

Does the revenue from the concerts and the World Cup Fans Village come to the football club? I had assumed it went to the Ashton Gate Stadium company?

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2 minutes ago, redrob said:

Does the revenue from the concerts and the World Cup Fans Village come to the football club? I had assumed it went to the Ashton Gate Stadium company?

Unsure how it''s distributed entirely but Bristol City Holdings in 2018/19 showed Bristol City FC + a good chunk of Ashton Gate Limited.

A fair chunk of it would have come under Commercial Revenue I'd have thought- it is notable that there is a significant difference between Bristol City Holdings and Bristol City FC in certain areas of income.

I don't believe all of it comes to the club but the differential is there between Bristol City FC and Bristol City Holdings- Ashton Gate Limited was at one time controlled by Bristol City Holdings.

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45 minutes ago, Scrumpylegs said:

I genuinely struggle to comprehend how anyone could actually believe that the Lansdowns are in this to make money!! Who makes money out of Football clubs? Worst investment. Ever. ?

Bury, Blackpool, Blackburn (Venky), Norwich, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Southampton, Arsenal, Brentford, Preston, Hull.

All have attempted or have generated profits the past five years and are generally run fairly sustainabally. To varying degrees of success (and complete failure, usually by owners not caring)

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4 hours ago, QuedgeRed said:

It’s obvious.

Manager is a yes man who will go along with it. 
Bring players up through the academy or buy youngsters and train. Bring them on into first team.

Sell for profit, hopefully one or two very large fees here and there.

I don’t expect any ‘big’ signings or experienced players brought in. 
 

We are a selling club from now. A money generating club.

It won’t work.

So you’re confirming what the club has frequently said. What’s your point?

Your main error is in saying we are a money generating club; we’re not, we’re a money absorbing club. The player trading just seeks to offset the otherwise large losses. Common sense.

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16 minutes ago, QuedgeRed said:

So the question then is;

Is sustainable football the football that you’re prepared to pay your good money to watch, year in year out, with probably a reduced chance of success and promotion? 
 

 

What's your plan to stick within 3 year FFP?

It's £39m rolling, doesn't reset and our excluded costs are usually in the region of £3-4m a season.

There's also Projected Accounts, Future Financial Information and it seems to be getting enforced more seriously now. A smaller squad would certainly help but plenty of Championship clubs sell, trade- it's part of the nature of the division.

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1 hour ago, QuedgeRed said:

So the question then is;

Is sustainable football the football that you’re prepared to pay your good money to watch, year in year out, with probably a reduced chance of success and promotion? 
 

 

We aren’t truly self sustaining, we run at a loss generally, but within FFP limits.  The only reason we made a profit in 18/19 was because we sold Kelly just before the end of May 2019 (accounting year end) rather than in June when we normally start recruitment and trading .  We will be back to double digit million pound loss in 19/20.

If you want break-even...assuming income stays the same, you have to either:

  • reduce the wage bill
  • reduce the operational costs
  • reduce amortisation (the cost of transfer fees spread over contract length

or a combination of all 3.

As per 18/19, income was £17m, costs (3 bullets above) were £42m.  So costs (loss) was £25m!!!

Of course the option to negate that £25m loss, other than cutting the costs of the 3 bullets above is to sale players.

That's the reality of it.

What would you do now you’ve been presented with that info?

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The plan is actually working. Scout young talent, coach them into the first team. Sell them on for a profit. We don't have to like it, but it has a track record of success. 

Said it before, Mark Ashton is Steve Lansdown's insurance policy. He will ensure we buy players that have resell value. No more journeyman players looking for a final pay day. 

It therefore puts additional pressure on our coaching staff. They have to take this raw talent and over the years, turn them into multiple million pound players. I would say that's extremely difficult. Love him or hate him MA has delivered on the recruitment. 

DH's played his part too, as the old regime took the likes of Brownhill, Webster and Kelly etc and did exactly what was required. 

It would be interesting to know how much of that was down to DH. I would Hazzard a guess at very instrumental. Now with his 2 new assistants, I would expect this process to be further enhanced and perhaps taken to the next level. 

Too be honest I am quiet excited to see how it all comes together. 

 

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6 hours ago, Furious Custard said:

This coming season is going to bankrupt a fair few clubs and I'm glad we have appointed holden on the cheap and can replace him cheap if it does start going wrong.This coming season and the next will be all about championship survival. 

I think the club have done everything possible to ensure our long term survival and not gambling everything they have done to jeopardise long term success. 

 

 

 

I think Ashton has done us all a big favour when reflecting in the cold light of an Asian morning!

Yesterday I was clinging to the hope of Hughton or someone proven. Then I listened to Holden and my huge disappointment made way for a realisation that as a fan I must support the Gaffer. And I will and his team.. at least from afar. 

Then I listened to Ashton and from that moment, after Geoff had finished his brilliant interrogation, My disappointment of Holden turned to immense anger. 

The fan base were not expecting such a dismal performance from Ashton. Spin yes but his entire demeanour actually enables us to focus on Dean Holden. We can forget about Ashton, he did us a huge back handed favour because if there was any doubt, and there was from me, he is now well and truly confined to the history of this club 100% in our mindset. So just ignore the fella. Let's get behind City. 

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I guess at least they have a plan a lot of clubs don't have one and our clubs unlikely to go bust with this plan. 

Is it a plan that will get us premier league football? Probably not. Even if you get lucky and get very talented youngsters on loan it often doesn't lead to promotion. Just look at Swansea last season and Derby season before. 

I do feel however a really good manager could make this plan work. Bielsa for example made a similar plan at Leeds work. Holden could be great and hopefully he is. However, he doesn't have much experience and I didn't see anything cutting edge in his tactics in the few games he took charge of to suggest he is anywhere near the level of someone like Bielsa or even Farke.

 

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4 hours ago, WayOutWest said:

The plan is actually working. Scout young talent, coach them into the first team. Sell them on for a profit. We don't have to like it, but it has a track record of success. 

Said it before, Mark Ashton is Steve Lansdown's insurance policy. He will ensure we buy players that have resell value. No more journeyman players looking for a final pay day. 

It therefore puts additional pressure on our coaching staff. They have to take this raw talent and over the years, turn them into multiple million pound players. I would say that's extremely difficult. Love him or hate him MA has delivered on the recruitment. 

DH's played his part too, as the old regime took the likes of Brownhill, Webster and Kelly etc and did exactly what was required. 

It would be interesting to know how much of that was down to DH. I would Hazzard a guess at very instrumental. Now with his 2 new assistants, I would expect this process to be further enhanced and perhaps taken to the next level. 

Too be honest I am quiet excited to see how it all comes together. 

 

This is clearly the plan or at least it was. How does the signing of Nahki Wells fit into that process? As far as I can see it doesn’t. Neither does bringing in Benkovic and loaning out Taylor Moore. Maybe LJ was sacked in part because they bent the “rules” for him, but he didn’t deliver. 
 

I am genuinely concerned that we will struggle next season. An inexperienced coach, with 2 assistants that have been used to youth level football for the last 5 years, and not the day-to-day grind of the Championship. Plus they need to bring on talent to sell at a profit.
 

No wonder the best candidate didn’t necessarily want the job, and we ended up with the “right man” to try to deliver survival both in the league and financially, rather than the original aim of promotion that SL was selling on TalkSport.

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8 hours ago, robin_unreliant said:

I still believe SL is treating it like a Penny Share Investment club. Buy a load of cheap shares and hope one is the new Amazon. He's applying it to football players and it won't work unless you have a very sklilled talent spotter. I don't see much evidence that MA is one of those. 

Webster

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17 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

 How does the signing of Nahki Wells fit into that process? As far as I can see it doesn’t. Neither does bringing in Benkovic and loaning out Taylor Moore. 

Nahki Wells was a good signing. Not every single transfer has to fit the profile. 

I would take Benkovic over Moore. So too me that works. Fingers crossed Moore under new management can prove he deserves his spot (did not necessarily agree with his season loan). 

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11 hours ago, QuedgeRed said:

It’s obvious.

Manager is a yes man who will go along with it. 
Bring players up through the academy or buy youngsters and train. Bring them on into first team.

Sell for profit, hopefully one or two very large fees here and there.

I don’t expect any ‘big’ signings or experienced players brought in. 
 

We are a selling club from now. A money generating club.

It won’t work.

Unless you are incredibly dull, nothing is obvious. Otherwise football teams would be able to create a formula for success.

I'm bitterly disappointed by the way this has been handled over the past 5 weeks, and to a certain extent, the appointing of DH doesn't make sense to me, considering how it was all sold to us 5 weeks ago. My only excuse, I let my heart rule my brain.

Having had the chance to sleep on it, I've come to the conclusion that I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions of juggling expectation with reality.

Personally, and having seen other clubs crash and burn, I'm glad for the likes of SL and MA for keeping us on the straight and narrow. We will now have to wait and see if this has been a master class, a damp squib of a decision or just a plain **** up. This will only be apparent in about a year with the benefit of 20 - 20 hindsight.

The only thing I ask of the board now is: Tell us what the plans are for ST holders over the near to medium term for watching games.

COYR 

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1 hour ago, bcfcfinker said:

Unless you are incredibly dull, nothing is obvious. Otherwise football teams would be able to create a formula for success.

I'm bitterly disappointed by the way this has been handled over the past 5 weeks, and to a certain extent, the appointing of DH doesn't make sense to me, considering how it was all sold to us 5 weeks ago. My only excuse, I let my heart rule my brain.

Having had the chance to sleep on it, I've come to the conclusion that I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions of juggling expectation with reality.

Personally, and having seen other clubs crash and burn, I'm glad for the likes of SL and MA for keeping us on the straight and narrow. We will now have to wait and see if this has been a master class, a damp squib of a decision or just a plain **** up. This will only be apparent in about a year with the benefit of 20 - 20 hindsight.

The only thing I ask of the board now is: Tell us what the plans are for ST holders over the near to medium term for watching games.

COYR 

It’s obvious. I’m incredibly dull!

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7 hours ago, Davefevs said:

We aren’t truly self sustaining, we run at a loss generally, but within FFP limits.  The only reason we made a profit in 18/19 was because we sold Kelly just before the end of May 2019 (accounting year end) rather than in June when we normally start recruitment and trading .  We will be back to double digit million pound loss in 19/20.

If you want break-even...assuming income stays the same, you have to either:

  • reduce the wage bill
  • reduce the operational costs
  • reduce amortisation (the cost of transfer fees spread over contract length

or a combination of all 3.

As per 18/19, income was £17m, costs (3 bullets above) were £42m.  So costs (loss) was £25m!!!

Of course the option to negate that £25m loss, other than cutting the costs of the 3 bullets above is to sale players.

That's the reality of it.

What would you do now you’ve been presented with that info?

I’ve always said, SL is an investment banker, there is risk invoked to make money.

Speculate to accumulate.

In the premiership the income would be a damn site more from all angles. It doesn’t even matter if you’re a yo-yo club because of parachute payments.

Success ON the pitch and the rest will follow.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Furious Custard said:

This coming season is going to bankrupt a fair few clubs and I'm glad we have appointed holden on the cheap and can replace him cheap if it does start going wrong.This coming season and the next will be all about championship survival. 

I think the club have done everything possible to ensure our long term survival and not gambling everything they have done to jeopardise long term success. 

I think you are probably close to the real problem. I think they may have had higher ambitions for LJ’s successor even in the first couple of weeks. 
For all the bollocks stated on here about how much better off we would be if Lansdown would follow our advice, there is own thing that is for sure and that is that he has proved to be a good fortune teller in his business career.

I think he has seen the stories of possibly a whole season without fans (and don’t forget this will be for rugby, ladies teams and basketball), presumably he has an idea on where the EFL are going to stand with FFP as Ashton has a seat there, and he has “done the maths”. 
This season is going to be one of short term survival for lots of the teams below the Prem and he wants to position the club to be in a good place when this all blows over. 
@Mr Popodopolous I am sure will know better than me, but I think a season where we spend comparatively nothing, will stand us in good stead for the following 2. 
I think they have effectively applied the brakes on their ambitions, if this new boot room works better than the doom merchants would have us believe, that will be a bonus.

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2 hours ago, bcfcfinker said:

Unless you are incredibly dull, nothing is obvious. Otherwise football teams would be able to create a formula for success.

I'm bitterly disappointed by the way this has been handled over the past 5 weeks, and to a certain extent, the appointing of DH doesn't make sense to me, considering how it was all mis-sold to us 5 weeks ago. My only excuse, I let my heart rule my brain.

Having had the chance to sleep on it, I've come to the conclusion that I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions of juggling expectation with reality.

Personally, and having seen other clubs crash and burn, I'm glad for the likes of SL and MA for keeping us on the straight and narrow. We will now have to wait and see if this has been a master class, a damp squib of a decision or just a plain **** up. This will only be apparent in about a year with the benefit of 20 - 20 hindsight.

The only thing I ask of the board now is: Tell us what the plans are for ST holders over the near to medium term for watching games.

COYR 

Fixed that for you ???

Seriously though SL didn’t do a good job on TS....think he gets a bit over excited.

In fairness to MA, although grilled last night, I think he was consistent in what he said.  He said “right fit for the football club” several times.  He didn’t say “best candidate”.

Right back at the start of the process he said we are trying to identify the “right type of person”.  Hughton, Cook and Holden aren’t the same type looking outside in....but they are all principled men.  Maybe that was the aspect that was key?

15 minutes ago, QuedgeRed said:

I’ve always said, SL is an investment banker, there is risk invoked to make money.

Speculate to accumulate.

In the premiership the income would be a damn site more from all angles. It doesn’t even matter if you’re a yo-yo club because of parachute payments.

Success ON the pitch and the rest will follow.

 

 

But he won’t risk the lot trying to get to the Prem.  Ashton talking about Champ clubs losing 12 points, going into Administration, under embargo.  Although on the face of it, this looks the season to spend your way out of trouble in what looks an “easier” (haha) Champ, we may find we can carry on as normal(ish) whilst all other teams are panicking.

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3 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I think you are probably close to the real problem. I think they may have had higher ambitions for LJ’s successor even in the first couple of weeks. 
For all the bollocks stated on here about how much better off we would be if Lansdown would follow our advice, there is own thing that is for sure and that is that he has proved to be a good fortune teller in his business career.

I think he has seen the stories of possibly a whole season without fans (and don’t forget this will be for rugby, ladies teams and basketball), presumably he has an idea on where the EFL are going to stand with FFP as Ashton has a seat there, and he has “done the maths”. 
This season is going to be one of short term survival for lots of the teams below the Prem and he wants to position the club to be in a good place when this all blows over. 
@Mr Popodopolous I am sure will know better than me, but I think a season where we spend comparatively nothing, will stand us in good stead for the following 2. 
I think they have effectively applied the brakes on their ambitions, if this new boot room works better than the doom merchants would have us believe, that will be a bonus.

We have built a buffer for FFP.  Probably looking at a £10-12m loss for 19/20, which is cancelled out by last years profit, and then you gave the previous year’s £25m loss....minus allowances means we are well inside £39m.  But we can’t rest on our laurels because 20/21 is gonna be a big loss, unless we sell some players and use the funds efficiently.

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1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Fixed that for you ???

Seriously though SL didn’t do a good job on TS....think he gets a bit over excited.

In fairness to MA, although grilled last night, I think he was consistent in what he said.  He said “right fit for the football club” several times.  He didn’t say “best candidate”.

Right back at the start of the process he said we are trying to identify the “right type of person”.  Hughton, Cook and Holden aren’t the same type looking outside in....but they are all principled men.  Maybe that was the aspect that was key?

But he won’t risk the lot trying to get to the Prem.  Ashton talking about Champ clubs losing 12 points, going into Administration, under embargo.  Although on the face of it, this looks the season to spend your way out of trouble in what looks an “easier” (haha) Champ, we may find we can carry on as normal(ish) whilst all other teams are panicking.

I think you are echoing my rather lengthier post above there Dave. The shrewd investor that SL is, knows when to speculate and when to consolidate. My additional point this is that markets fluctuate quickly, so although it may seem we were.mis-sold something 5 weeks ago, it may have just been a different tactic was required.

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13 hours ago, Furious Custard said:

This coming season is going to bankrupt a fair few clubs and I'm glad we have appointed holden on the cheap and can replace him cheap if it does start going wrong.This coming season and the next will be all about championship survival. 

I think the club have done everything possible to ensure our long term survival and not gambling everything they have done to jeopardise long term success. 

 

 

 

They've done everything possible except engage with supporters. It's any clubs mistake to think you don't have to engage with the supporters. If it all goes wrong when the crowds are able to return, the won't to Ashton Gate

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10 hours ago, QuedgeRed said:

So the question then is;

Is sustainable football the football that you’re prepared to pay your good money to watch, year in year out, with probably a reduced chance of success and promotion? 
 

 

What is ‘sustainable football’??  I thought we were taking about a sustainable football club?

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10 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Unsure how it''s distributed entirely but Bristol City Holdings in 2018/19 showed Bristol City FC + a good chunk of Ashton Gate Limited.

A fair chunk of it would have come under Commercial Revenue I'd have thought- it is notable that there is a significant difference between Bristol City Holdings and Bristol City FC in certain areas of income.

I don't believe all of it comes to the club but the differential is there between Bristol City FC and Bristol City Holdings- Ashton Gate Limited was at one time controlled by Bristol City Holdings.

I would guess that the majority of non football income is used to enlarge City's annual income. Simply because of the way FFP is structured with total profit/loss being the major factor.

Bristol Rugby have to follow different rules like salary limits of players so, I believe, they will not need to increase income.

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2 hours ago, WayOutWest said:

Nahki Wells was a good signing. Not every single transfer has to fit the profile. 

I would take Benkovic over Moore. So too me that works. Fingers crossed Moore under new management can prove he deserves his spot (did not necessarily agree with his season loan). 

I’ve said it before, but I’d make Taylor Moore captain.  I think he’s shown all the qualities - ability, readiness to take responsibility, intelligence, commitment - that would make a great captain.

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13 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

What is ‘sustainable football’??  I thought we were taking about a sustainable football club?

Ok....the football produced by a sustainable football club. ?

11 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

I’ve said it before, but I’d make Taylor Moore captain.  I think he’s shown all the qualities - ability, readiness to take responsibility, intelligence, commitment - that would make a great captain.

Good shout

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11 minutes ago, Magicseason said:

They've done everything possible except engage with supporters. It's any clubs mistake to think you don't have to engage with the supporters. If it all goes wrong when the crowds are able to return, the won't to Ashton Gate

Agreed. Communication has been mixed. A lot of unknowns since LJ left which hasn't helped. What will ffp look like in the coming seasons. What managers were available or becoming available at the time ( Cook) . When will the new season start. When will the transfer window be open. Will crowds be allowed and to what level. 

Obviously the statements such as 'breath of fresh air' have not helped. The club could never come out and say " difficult times are ahead and we are going to go for the financially safe option" it doesnt inspire anyone or attract new players and managers/coaches to the club. 

I think the fans will be back, the expected limited capacity numbers will dappen the effect this fiasco has had. And when we return to full capacity this will all be forgotten about Because DH will either be here doing a good job with the resources available. Or gone due to relegation threat and replaced with a manager who can keep us in the league which we will all get behind. 

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3 hours ago, QuedgeRed said:

I’ve always said, SL is an investment banker, there is risk invoked to make money.

Speculate to accumulate.

In the premiership the income would be a damn site more from all angles. It doesn’t even matter if you’re a yo-yo club because of parachute payments.

Success ON the pitch and the rest will follow.

 

 

How does this fit with the levels of monitoring being built into modern FFP? 

@Davefevs pointed out how we get losses down and I am happy to in due course highlight if I haven't already that can make it rather difficult!!

@QuedgeRed It was written in 2018 and updated in 2019 and I believe rules are still evolving with respect to enforcement and implementation but you could do worse than to read this article. 

https://www.mikethornton.xyz/new-ffp-tests/

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1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

How does this fit with the levels of monitoring being built into modern FFP? 

@Davefevs pointed out how we get losses down and I am happy to in due course highlight if I haven't already that can make it rather difficult!!

The losses will be even more after this fiasco!

I bet they hadn’t accounted for that!!

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3 minutes ago, QuedgeRed said:

The losses will be even more after this fiasco!

I bet they hadn’t accounted for that!!

Could well be the case yep. There's another good article by the same guy. 

https://www.mikethornton.xyz/ffp-ps-rules-and-sanctions/

My concern or slight concern is that we have fallen into some kind of soft sanctions ie a 3 year FFP loss to 2020 irrespective of Covid of somewhere between £15-39m.

This puts clubs on the radar of the EFL to some extent and there is a regulation about the next two years projected FFP accounts need to be submitted by end of March if so.

My slight concern is that combined with Covid, this has affected what we can offer a new manager in terms of wage and transfer budget and have to run a tight ship for a year or so.

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