What position in the league is acceptable this season

[Spud55]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Purely on the basis that a lot of clubs were already close to FFP limits....have lost £x million in 19/20 and will lose £y million in 20/21.

There is tv money to repay to Sky, which may be staggered over a couple of years, but still has to be accounted for.

There are wage deferrals to repay from covid.

I do agree with what you say re Prem being largely unaffected, and I think your two tier Championship is probably more accurate than me saying “most teams will be weaker”.  Those clubs who’ve been well run and have FFP contingency will likely be the top tier, those poorly run and in financial difficulty likely to be bottom tier.

Derby (EFL meeting pending), Wednesday (-12), Reading, Birmingham (we will see whether Bellingham sale gives them more financial stability but they are still playing catch-up on the Redknapp era), are gonna find it difficult.  Plus the 3 promoted clubs (Wycombe,  Coventry and Rotherham) are gonna find it tough to compete financially.

Stoke are a really interesting one.  Under O’Neill, they have improved massively, but this is their final year of PPs (only £18m this year), and they still have a bloody big wage bill (£56m)  and amortisation (£28m) which I didn’t see too much sign of reducing last season.  So I’m reserving judgement on them until we see their window activity....which is probably the case for a lot of those middling teams.

The fact that very few have done any business yet, leads me to think clubs are adjusting.  But we will see, still early days when window doesn’t end til mid October.

So that’s my thoughts....good thoughts from you too.

I agree with a lot of that, and it definitely will be interesting to see what happens, I think FFP rules will be relaxed, but this is the EFL so God knows what will actually happen. 

I think you will actually see the effects 2/4 years down the line as the lure of 100+ million will still be too big a carrot for teams not to spend money, and coupled with a relaxation in FFP rules for a year or 2 it presents opportunities for most clubs, as we are not that outside of the norm having an owner happy to put in a shit ton of money when needed, most of the top half of this league have owners with serious cash. 

My concern is that we overegg the impact and think staying still, even a slight regression will be enough as teams fall around us. 

The fact that we don't even appear to have been in for Kiefer Moore considering we are likely to lose Fam, and we don't seem to be particularly serious about Dunkley concerns me that we might be trying to do this season on the cheap so to speak. 

It may just be that we genuinely were not interested in these 2, but they seem exactly the sort of players we should be after considering our model. 

[Baba Yaga]

14 hours ago, luke_bristol said:

It’s worth remembering our previous stints in the Championship - when the decline begins, it only ends with relegation.

 

I think the beginning of the end will be the forthcoming season. I really, really hope I’m wrong.

This is how I see the club after looking at its history over the last 30 years or so. However I have hope that now the club have improved its infrastructure that even if its having a bad time it can still retain its position in the 2nd tier.

[2015]

I think we will be between 13th - 17th. Quite a number of poor teams in the League right now and with clubs also being deducted points, should see us ok relegation wise. 
A good season would be a top 10 finish with Holden in charge, would be very respectable for him and the players.

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, Spud55 said:

I agree with a lot of that, and it definitely will be interesting to see what happens, I think FFP rules will be relaxed, but this is the EFL so God knows what will actually happen.

I maybe wrong, but I see little appetite to relax the rules.  Salary cap proposal tells me they aren’t looking at making it easier to run up unmanageable debt.  As I said, might be wrong.  Even UEFA haven’t relaxed, just made the 3 year cycle a 4 year cycle.  No increase in limits (which are more stringent that PL/EFL), even though clubs have reduced income streams...so in effect, even harder to achieve FFP.  This is what guides my opinion.

What drives your thought they will relax the rules?

I think you will actually see the effects 2/4 years down the line as the lure of 100+ million will still be too big a carrot for teams not to spend money, and coupled with a relaxation in FFP rules for a year or 2 it presents opportunities for most clubs, as we are not that outside of the norm having an owner happy to put in a shit ton of money when needed, most of the top half of this league have owners with serious cash. 

My concern is that we overegg the impact and think staying still, even a slight regression will be enough as teams fall around us.
that is possible, but we’ve always played safely within the limits.  Other clubs haven’t, and from chatting to someone in a Finance area at another club, he feels there are a lot of clubs right on the limit / brink....before covid!

The fact that we don't even appear to have been in for Kiefer Moore considering we are likely to lose Fam, and we don't seem to be particularly serious about Dunkley concerns me that we might be trying to do this season on the cheap so too.

Two weeks ago Moore was signing for QPR....still at Wigan though.  We do things quietly.

It may just be that we genuinely were not interested in these 2, but they seem exactly the sort of players we should be after considering our model.

maybe we have our eyes on better players?  Two months left of the window.  Just need to show some patience.  I was gonna say show some trust but that would be taking the pi$$.

 

[Spud55]

14 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

 

I don't think UEFA need to relax their rules, as the vast majority of the clubs they actually care about are not in any way reliant on gate receipts, let's face it they could play all top flight football behind closed doors next season and the impact on revenue for clubs in the big 4 leagues would be negligible at best, for the prem in particular the vast, vast majority of their income of from TV money, and the majority of that is from foreign TV money. So I don't see Why UEFA would need to do anything. 

I would be surprised if we see Salary caps brought in in the championship, as I don't know how you make it work, it has to be high enough as to not immediately punish relegated teams meaning it likely has to be well in excess of what we are spending or you give another unfair advantage to relegated sides on top of parachute payments. 

We do do things quietly, which is why I am not quite "the end is nigh" but I still fear we might be trying to do this on the cheap, or assuming that the world crumbles around us. 

 

 

[Bristol Oil Services]

On 12/08/2020 at 10:52, Red-Robbo said:

I'll be thrilled if we finish 12th because I honestly expect lower. 

The owner should be setting a target of season-on-season improvement. 

So, we finish 11th next year = Deano gets another year.

We finish 10th = Deano gets another year.

We finish 12th = Deano fired.

New bloke (probably Simmo, or Downi-o) finishes 11th = new bloke gets another year.

We finish 10th = notso new bloke gets another year 

We finish 12th = old bloke fired. Replaced by assistant bloke.

We finish 11th - notso assistant bloke gets another year

We finish 12th = bloke fired. Replaced by assistant.

We finish 11th = ad nauseum.

[Red-Robbo]

3 minutes ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

So, we finish 11th next year = Deano gets another year.

We finish 10th = Deano gets another year.

We finish 12th = Deano fired.

New bloke (probably Simmo, or Downi-o) finishes 11th = new bloke gets another year.

We finish 10th = notso new bloke gets another year 

We finish 12th = old bloke fired. Replaced by assistant bloke.

We finish 11th - notso assistant bloke gets another year

We finish 12th = bloke fired. Replaced by assistant.

We finish 11th = ad nauseum.

 

As I say, I'll be thrilled if we end up mid-table because I expect us to be looking at the bottom third and potentially only safe due to various point deductions elsewhere.

Were I Lansdown I'd not have changed the target I set for Johnson. The new manager's target should be Top 6.

However we know that "Dean has no specific target" so we know that all ambition has gone out the window, and Holden will be judged by the owner more leniently than Johnson was.

[Davefevs]

24 minutes ago, Spud55 said:

I don't think UEFA need to relax their rules, as the vast majority of the clubs they actually care about are not in any way reliant on gate receipts, let's face it they could play all top flight football behind closed doors next season and the impact on revenue for clubs in the big 4 leagues would be negligible at best, for the prem in particular the vast, vast majority of their income of from TV money, and the majority of that is from foreign TV money. So I don't see Why UEFA would need to do anything. 

I would be surprised if we see Salary caps brought in in the championship, as I don't know how you make it work, it has to be high enough as to not immediately punish relegated teams meaning it likely has to be well in excess of what we are spending or you give another unfair advantage to relegated sides on top of parachute payments. 

We do do things quietly, which is why I am not quite "the end is nigh" but I still fear we might be trying to do this on the cheap, or assuming that the world crumbles around us. 

 

 

Salary cap....allegedly the vote is this week for Championship having been voted in last week for Lg1/2.  No idea on each club’s stance. @Mr Popodopolousany more info?

Have you read likely proposal?

This is almost identical to Lg1/2 but different amounts!  Re the 4th bullet above, the Lg1/2 cap allows any player contracted before the cap came in to be treated at the divisional average, not just players from relegated team.

I would prefer they delay for one year and let Lg1/2 find all the loopholes.

 

[Red-Robbo]

11 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Salary cap....allegedly the vote is this week for Championship having been voted in last week for Lg1/2.  No idea on each club’s stance. @Mr Popodopolousany more info?

Have you read likely proposal?

This is almost identical to Lg1/2 but different amounts!  Re the 4th bullet above, the Lg1/2 cap allows any player contracted before the cap came in to be treated at the divisional average, not just players from relegated team.

I would prefer they delay for one year and let Lg1/2 find all the loopholes.

 

 

Which they will! 

I predict a lot of brown envelopes floating about and more bungs than in a plumber's superstore.

[Jeez]

Now the dust has settled & the ridiculousness has surpassed; I'm sure most of us will be in more of a reflective mood & begin to accept or try to understand why the club decided to U turn on their aims.

So once that's accepted & we start thinking pragmatically; what do we want to see from the Club, DH, SL, MA, JL, & the assistant new coaches?

Given our expectations have been lowered what do we want to see this season now we know what we are working with in terms of coaching team.

[Back of the net]

There are no lowering of any expectations from the club that I’m aware of?  It’s still top 6 and ultimately promotion. 
 

The decision to appoint DH was based on them believing he was the best person available To achieve this. 
 

This isn’t a rebuilding project, it’s to take the club to the next level. 
 

Dean Holden knows what is expected and good luck to him - I’m right behind him. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

I know what I would want, but also what I would accept- two different things!

Like all of us, promotion or top six should be the aim- the goal. However, given summer business, given certain financial regulations, given the truncated nature of the pre-season preparations, I'd say it isn't a must/essential. Though that said the League has potential to be quite open.

Anyway, I would accept/be reasonably happy with- for this season, club review down the line on an ongoing basis, see if football finances improve etc.

1. Midtable would be acceptable.
2. A good brand of football.
3. Bring on and give a proper chance to the likes of Vyner, Moore, Walsh, Morrell etc- sure there are more, but unsure how close they are to the first team at this time. O'Leary for example- would he overtake Bentley? Of course if Bentley is unavailable, he's the next cab off the rank.

This helps us because Holden is on a 12 month rolling deal- meaning it is not so difficult to replace. It is also worth noting that we have a great number of players out of contract next summer.

1. A new man will have a relatively clean slate to work with.
2. Some of them could be sold this season IMO, to maximise value.
3. Some could be renewed- mix of decent players in some cases, some quite young and yeah perhaps some to make a gain on next summer or January 2022 if another year added.
4. New man- bigger name- will then have the chance to mould the squad in his image a bit.

Worse strategies out there in these uncertain times...

Oh and less injuries please! We seemed to have quite a few in the last 3 seasons.

[Rocky]

I fear we’re going back years to give the new men time, When in fact the target should remain a strict top 6 or you’re out.

This was LJ’s target, so why change if SL wants Prem football ASAP. 
 

[WirralRobin]

To see us consistently play exciting football played in a system that appears to play to the player's strengths getting the best out of them. Would love to see the squad trimmed down slightly but augmented with a couple of quality clever signings and I'd love to see the likes of Moore, Walsh and Morrell given lot's of game time and hopefully for them to start to be able to establish themselves as key members of the squad. I also want to see progression on last year's performances from the likes of Massengo and Nagy. 

I'd like to see the contract situations sorted out early with contract extensions for many of our squad so we're not fearing the worst going into the last few months or year of current deals (Walsh a good example of this, with his contract up at the end of the season).

If all the above happened, league wise I wouldn't mind if we finished anywhere down to around 10th.

 

 

[Riaz]

I’d take top half now! 

Based purely on the massive gamble we have made!

[Jeez]

17 minutes ago, Back of the net said:

There are no lowering of any expectations from the club that I’m aware of?  It’s still top 6 and ultimately promotion. 
 

The decision to appoint DH was based on them believing he was the best person available To achieve this. 
 

This isn’t a rebuilding project, it’s to take the club to the next level. 
 

Dean Holden knows what is expected and good luck to him - I’m right behind him. 

You’re setting yourself up for disappointment then. Don’t believe what you hear from the club better to base it on what you see. 

Realistically, its likely we’ll see the integration of younger players and say goodbye to experienced players at a profit.

Accepting the appointment, reconfigured my expectations and don’t for one minute think we’ll reach the playoffs, happy to be surprised though but we didn’t when we were supposed to be going for it.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just on that contract point, last time I looked- could be right, could be wrong- 14- only 14 players whose contracts extend beyond 2021.

Both a potential problem and an opportunity!

[And Its Smith]

15 minutes ago, Rocky said:

I fear we’re going back years to give the new men time, When in fact the target should remain a strict top 6 or you’re out.

This was LJ’s target, so why change if SL wants Prem football ASAP. 
 

Sacking every manager who doesn’t get top six may well mean we take longer to get promoted than not doing that. 

[Back of the net]

27 minutes ago, Red Alert said:

You’re setting yourself up for disappointment then. Don’t believe what you hear from the club better to base it on what you see. 

Realistically, its likely we’ll see the integration of younger players and say goodbye to experienced players at a profit.

Accepting the appointment, reconfigured my expectations and don’t for one minute think we’ll reach the playoffs, happy to be surprised though but we didn’t when we were supposed to be going for it.

Or it could be rather than the disruption caused by bringing in an external appointment this will give Holden the opportunity to build on the good things LJ did leave us with (a pretty decent squad) but rather than big signings the two assistants will be able to help attract the best young talent in the country and develop those we have.
 

Leeds didn’t spend fortunes and sold key player (Kemar Roofe and Pontus Jansen). They were well coached, well organised, had a set style and used the loan market well (imagine we’d signed Ben White and Nketieh last season). 
 

Let’s not lower our expectations. If Holden doesn’t reach them then he knows how it will end. 

[Kibs]

1 hour ago, Red Alert said:

Now the dust has settled & the ridiculousness has surpassed; I'm sure most of us will be in more of a reflective mood & begin to accept or try to understand why the club decided to U turn on their aims.

So once that's accepted & we start thinking pragmatically; what do we want to see from the Club, DH, SL, MA, JL, & the assistant new coaches?

Given our expectations have been lowered what do we want to see this season now we know what we are working with in terms of coaching team.

What u-turn is that? I’ve only heard more ambition and talk of promotion from Keith Downing in his interview yesterday.

[Tangle Foot]

As usual I can see us flirting with the playoffs, but end up 10th or 11th.

Which is progress (based on this season’s league finishing position). Also, when taking into account Coronavirus, and the new coaching team, I honestly think I’d be satisfied with that!

COYR.

[Tangle Foot]

@Redtrojan Just wondered if you could see how ppl have voted? Would like to know which ***** chose they would like us to be relegated. 
 

Probably an Arsehead!

COYR.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Back of the net said:

Or it could be rather than the disruption caused by bringing in an external appointment this will give Holden the opportunity to build on the good things LJ did leave us with (a pretty decent squad) but rather than big signings the two assistants will be able to help attract the best young talent in the country and develop those we have.
 

Leeds didn’t spend fortunes and sold key player (Kemar Roofe and Pontus Jansen). They were well coached, well organised, had a set style and used the loan market well (imagine we’d signed Ben White and Nketieh last season). 
 

Let’s not lower our expectations. If Holden doesn’t reach them then he knows how it will end. 

Didn't even play much for them, in his half-season. He's good but we'll see how he goes in the coming years.

You can add Augustin to that, notable player, or was pre-injury- as well as Harrison and Costa. Meselier looks a good signing too. Augustin joined Leeds in a less than optimum state though and they're trying to get out of signing him- can't win them all!

More than just well coached and organised though, they were terrific- sold key players as you say yet improved all the same!

[Jeez]

50 minutes ago, Back of the net said:

Or it could be rather than the disruption caused by bringing in an external appointment this will give Holden the opportunity to build on the good things LJ did leave us with (a pretty decent squad) but rather than big signings the two assistants will be able to help attract the best young talent in the country and develop those we have.
 

Leeds didn’t spend fortunes and sold key player (Kemar Roofe and Pontus Jansen). They were well coached, well organised, had a set style and used the loan market well (imagine we’d signed Ben White and Nketieh last season). 
 

Let’s not lower our expectations. If Holden doesn’t reach them then he knows how it will end. 

Comparing Bielsa & Holden?

 

[Jeez]

31 minutes ago, Kibs said:

What u-turn is that? I’ve only heard more ambition and talk of promotion from Keith Downing in his interview yesterday.

What else is he going to say? 
 

U-turn as in breath of fresh air required, someone to take us to the next level. 

I’d be over the moon if DH can deliver but I prefer to lower expectations and be pleasantly surprised.

[Jeez]

Just to add, I have no problem going into this season trying to develop a style and bring through youth, it will be far more enjoyable to watch - but I don’t get the idea of pinning hopes on a top 6 finish. 
 

It hasn’t happened for a over decade in this league, madness to expect it now. I’ll reserve any excitement until we’re close come the last 10 games.

 

[Fordy62]

A lot of people’s expectations have been lowered by the appointment of DH.

What I’m really keen to test is how much of a love child of SL was LJ?

If we lose our first eight games, do I think Holden will still get SL’s backing? Will he heck.

Will there be a level playing field? We shall see. 

[Numero Uno]

2 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

A lot of people’s expectations have been lowered by the appointment of DH.

What I’m really keen to test is how much of a love child of SL was LJ?

If we lose our first eight games, do I think Holden will still get SL’s backing? Will he heck.

Will there be a level playing field? We shall see. 

I think we are all hoping these prolonged losing runs are a thing of the past!!!

[Kibs]

26 minutes ago, Red Alert said:

What else is he going to say? 
 

U-turn as in breath of fresh air required, someone to take us to the next level. 

I’d be over the moon if DH can deliver but I prefer to lower expectations and be pleasantly surprised.

I expect him to say exactly what he did say, because that is the aim everyone at the club is talking about, and that’s why LJ was sacked for finishing just outside the play-offs. 

The club interviewed Chris Hughton twice apparently, but decided DH was better equipped to take the club forward. It’s the club that have put the pressure on him, not the fans. 

Its not what I expect of course, not at all, but only because I don’t think as highly of DH as the board do.....quite obviously.
 

Hopefully he proves me wrong because as a “human”, I really like him and would love nothing more than for him to succeed but If City don’t achieve top 6, I expect DH to be held to the same standards and expectations that LJ was.

[Davefevs]

11 hours ago, markcarter said:

A very successful season for a total novice head coach supported by two youth football coaches, with a mediocre squad, would be to avoid relegation.

I can see the Holden logic, but do you see Simpson and Downing as just “two youth football coaches” and us having a mediocre squad?