Shot Shy City

[bcfc01]

City had the best conversion rate in the division last season - but with the least number of shots at goal which goes a way towards confirming that we probably over achieved last season and that it was boring to watch.

It would be interesting to see the stats for the last 5 games against the previous 41 if anyone has them.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/chancenverwertung/wettbewerb/GB2/saison_id/2019/plus/1

[Port Said Red]

I thought it was one of the things that improved in the last few games under DH, I would be interested to know if the stats back that up.

[Lrrr]

It’s pretty logical we created less as we were trying to work the ball into better positions to shoot from which leads to high conversion rate but less shots as attacks break down. Teams more willing to take pot shots increases shot count and therefore reduces conversion rate 

[Monkeh]

Just now, Port Said Red said:

I thought it was one of the things that improved in the last few games under DH, I would be interested to know if the stats back that up.

Shots maybe but decision making and general final 3rd play/movement definitely not,

There needs to be a massive improvement in that area of the pitch (not so much the strikers)

[CyderInACan]

good tongue twister of a thread title! 

[Tinmans Love Child]

Try and say the title of this thread quickly ten time’s, I ended up sounding like Sean Connery!

[Port Said Red]

1 minute ago, CyderInACan said:

good tongue twister of a thread title! 

 

1 minute ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

Try and say the title of this thread quickly ten time’s, I ended up sounding like Sean Connery!

Especially if you have been battling a slight lisp all your life like me.

[Davefevs]

Here are the 5 games vs the 46 games.  I really haven’t got the inclination to do 5 games v 41 game comparison.

(Whole season in brackets)

Goals for: 1.4 (1.3)

Goaks against: 1.0 (1.4)

xG for: 1.25 (1.16)

xG Against: 1.4 (1.43)

Shots for: 10.6 (9.6)

shots against: 14.4 (13.57)

Possession: 56:44 (48:52)

Passes Made: 440 (360)

Successful: 82% (78.5%)

Passes allowed: 329 (402)

[Monkeh]

Just now, Davefevs said:

Here are the 5 games vs the 46 games.  I really haven’t got the inclination to do 5 games v 41 game comparison.

(Whole season in brackets)

Goals for: 1.4 (1.3)

Goaks against: 1.0 (1.4)

xG for: 1.25 (1.16)

xG Against: 1.4 (1.43)

Shots for: 10.6 (9.6)

shots against: 14.4 (13.57)

Possession: 56:44 (48:52)

Passes Made: 440 (360)

Successful: 82% (78.5%)

Passes allowed: 281 (402)

Dave a better comparison would be 5 games before the sack and 5 games after

[bcfc01]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here are the 5 games vs the 46 games.  I really haven’t got the inclination to do 5 games v 41 game comparison.

(Whole season in brackets)

Goals for: 1.4 (1.3)

Goaks against: 1.0 (1.4)

xG for: 1.25 (1.16)

xG Against: 1.4 (1.43)

Shots for: 10.6 (9.6)

shots against: 14.4 (13.57)

Possession: 56:44 (48:52)

Passes Made: 440 (360)

Successful: 82% (78.5%)

Passes allowed: 281 (402)

Thanks.

Confirms what we saw under Holden - we played a much more pressing, possession based game in those 5 games, but looked a bit dodgy defensively.

Promising though (even though it was only 5 games) as the players looked comfortable in that set up and played with a bit of freedom - not as rigid as under LJ. 

[054123]

18 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Dave a better comparison would be 5 games before the sack and 5 games after

Yeah @Davefevs.

What Monkeh said.

[Numero Uno]

2 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Thanks.

Confirms what we saw under Holden - we played a much more pressing, possession based game in those 5 games, but looked a bit dodgy defensively.

Promising though (even though it was only 5 games) as the players looked comfortable in that set up and played with a bit of freedom - not as rigid as under LJ. 

Our defensive problems come predominantly from set pieces which is also where the majority of our goals come from. It's weird.

The stats that @Davefevsjust came out with prove what I was sure I saw with my own eyes. There were numerous games under Johnson from the turn of the new year where the TOTAL number of shots we had in 90 minutes was at the lower end of single figures, let alone those on target. It's amazing how people with every coaching badge in the book and a clear high level knowledge of football can be blinded to the obvious by their pursuit of tactical genius..........anyway, cost him his job in the end!!

[CyderInACan]

22 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Dave a better comparison would be 5 games before the sack and 5 games after

Yeah FFS @Davefevs what you playing at! 

[Davefevs]

49 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Dave a better comparison would be 5 games before the sack and 5 games after

 

26 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

Yeah FFS @Davefevs what you playing at! 

 

31 minutes ago, 054123 said:

Yeah @Davefevs.

What Monkeh said.

Eff the lot of you

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m on the case.  You knew I couldn’t resist the challenge, you bastards

[Davefevs]

Ok:

Holden 5 vs (Johnson last 5)

Points per game: 1.6 (0.4)

Goals For per game: 1.4 (0.6)

Goals Agst per game: 1.0 (1.6)

xG For: 1.28 (0.95)

xG Agst: 1.40 (1.28)

Shots For: 10.6 (8.6)

Shots Agst: 14.4 (11.6)

Possession Ratio: 56:44 (50.5:49.5)

Passes Made: 440 (344)

Success: 82% (78%)

Passes Allowed: 329 (336) negligible

Summary:

• much better with the ball and keeping it
• allow too many chances (but goals against more efficient)

[City Rocker]

4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Ok:

Holden 5 vs (Johnson last 5)

Points per game: 1.6 (0.4)

Goals For per game: 1.4 (0.6)

Goals Agst per game: 1.0 (1.6)

xG For: 1.28 (0.95)

xG Agst: 1.40 (1.28)

Shots For: 10.6 (8.6)

Shots Agst: 14.4 (11.6)

Possession Ratio: 56:44 (50.5:49.5)

Passes Made: 440 (344)

Success: 82% (78%)

Passes Allowed: 329 (336) negligible

Summary:

• much better with the ball and keeping it
• allow too many chances (but goals against more efficient)

So we're all happy then! 

[Monkeh]

15 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Ok:

Holden 5 vs (Johnson last 5)

Points per game: 1.6 (0.4)

Goals For per game: 1.4 (0.6)

Goals Agst per game: 1.0 (1.6)

xG For: 1.28 (0.95)

xG Agst: 1.40 (1.28)

Shots For: 10.6 (8.6)

Shots Agst: 14.4 (11.6)

Possession Ratio: 56:44 (50.5:49.5)

Passes Made: 440 (344)

Success: 82% (78%)

Passes Allowed: 329 (336) negligible

Summary:

• much better with the ball and keeping it
• allow too many chances (but goals against more efficient)

An improvement then,

If the new coaches can get the team to defend as a unit then we should see an improvement,

As long as the negativity is aimed at those in charge of the club and not the players/ coaching staff hopefully we can be slightly more optimistic 

[054123]

Maybe allowing more shots (but not necessarily goals) is a by product of a more free flowing, forward thinking team?

[Port Said Red]

59 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Ok:

Holden 5 vs (Johnson last 5)

Points per game: 1.6 (0.4)

Goals For per game: 1.4 (0.6)

Goals Agst per game: 1.0 (1.6)

xG For: 1.28 (0.95)

xG Agst: 1.40 (1.28)

Shots For: 10.6 (8.6)

Shots Agst: 14.4 (11.6)

Possession Ratio: 56:44 (50.5:49.5)

Passes Made: 440 (344)

Success: 82% (78%)

Passes Allowed: 329 (336) negligible

Summary:

• much better with the ball and keeping it
• allow too many chances (but goals against more efficient)

I read it that because we stopped the opposition passing more effectively, they were reduced to shooting (potentially from distance) more often. A aggregate positive.

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Port Said Red said:

I read it that because we stopped the opposition passing more effectively, they were reduced to shooting (potentially from distance) more often. A aggregate positive.

I looked at average shot length too, but it wasn’t really conclusive, nor is it really the kind of indicator I was trying to get across in a very small sample of games.

There are a few other things for me to look at though.

[ExiledAjax]

Thought maybe useful to do the same as @Davefevs but showing the average from the reverse fixtures of the five that DH took charge in. Those 5 came in a straight run last summer and were our 5th - 9th games of the season. We had an ever so slightly better set of results (W2 D3 L0) and so the difference in ppg is negligible. However, we had a pretty obviously superior set of attacking stats.

Note that Afobe played the first of these games against Hull (scored twice) and Middlesbrough, then got injured in training before the 3rd match of the 5 against Stoke.

DH averages first, then the average for the reverse 5 from the start of the season in brackets, and I've copied Dave's formatting.

Goals for: 1.4 (2) 

Goals against: 1.0 (1.4) 

xG for: 1.25 (1.59) 

xG Against: 1.4 (1.52)

Shots for: 10.6 (13.2) 

shots against: 14.4 (14.4) 

Possession: 56:44 (47:53) 

I don't easily have the passing stuff.

I do have shots on target for and against.

On Target For - LJ 41 game ave 3.24 / DH 5 games 3.8 / LJ reverse 5 3.6

On Target Against - LJ 41 game ave 4.54 / DH 5 games 4.8 / LJ reverse 5 4.8

So not much difference in the shots that count.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I've dabbled in this but excellent work @Davefevs @ExiledAjax

It does show an improvement in a number of areas under Holden (once we factor in possession too).

The underlying numbers do seem to suggest as I first started flagging last November I think it was that performances outstripped by results quite often.

However that doesn't account for quality of shots/opportunities created or us funneling opposition into certain zones to allow worse quality of chances even if in greater numbers.

Potted version:

Some positives, but much to work on! Though some areas did improve under Holden- the challenge now is to build on our positive points, carry them forward and work, work, work on our poor areas.

[onlyotib]

3 hours ago, bcfc01 said:

City had the best conversion rate in the division last season - but with the least number of shots at goal which goes a way towards confirming that we probably over achieved last season and that it was boring to watch.

It would be interesting to see the stats for the last 5 games against the previous 41 if anyone has them.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/chancenverwertung/wettbewerb/GB2/saison_id/2019/plus/1

Basically confirms that our strikers are good enough just need far more service to them

[ExiledAjax]

19 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I've dabbled in this but excellent work @Davefevs @ExiledAjax

It does show an improvement in a number of areas under Holden (once we factor in possession too).

The underlying numbers do seem to suggest as I first started flagging last November I think it was that performances outstripped by results quite often.

However that doesn't account for quality of shots/opportunities created or us funneling opposition into certain zones to allow worse quality of chances even if in greater numbers.

Potted version:

Some positives, but much to work on! Though some areas did improve under Holden- the challenge now is to build on our positive points, carry them forward and work, work, work on our poor areas.

Cheers.

Honestly in my opinion this exercise is potentially misleading right now. It's interesting to examine but really 5 games under Holden, in a crowdless environment and strange times, is such a small and anomalous sample that it's almost worthless.

Just look at the differences in the Hull lineups for a start.

What is blindingly obvious across the whole season, especially when you compare our stats to the teams that finished where we have stated we are aiming, is that we need to swing that shot differential from the -5(ish) we've been sat at most of the season (and continued at under DH) to somewhere closer to +5, or at least to +3. We allowed a pretty standard number of shots so from my perspective the easiest way to improve that figure is to jack up the shots for column.

In the season just gone we had the highest % of our shots in the 6 yard box for the division (14%), and conversely the joint lowest % from outside the box (31%).

So let's get the midfielders testing the keepers from 20 yards.

[Red-Robbo]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

 

So let's get the midfielders testing the keepers from 20 yards.

 

Football cliche #292 is "You can't win the lottery if you don't but a ticket".

Like many cliches, there's a lot of truth in that.

[Alex_BCFC]

Almost pointless looking at Holden's games. Season was over for us so nothing riding on them. I thought we laboured to a win against a Hull side who I think in 2nd half of season were the only side to pick up fewer points. We played well at Boro (although they had more chances than most need to score and were dreadful at home). Stoke, Swansea and Preston we failed to beat - so basically couldn't beat anyone half decent when the pressure was off.

That isn't to say Holden won't do well - I hope he does - although it seems unlikely.

We were dreadful last season and just got lucky at various points to be honest to get us into top 6. We fell back to the position we deserved to be in pretty quickly.

[ExiledAjax]

40 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

Football cliche #292 is "You can't win the lottery if you don't but a ticket".

Like many cliches, there's a lot of truth in that.

Agree, and whilst it's admirable to try to work the ball into good positions and only take high % shots, I'm also of the opinion that these keepers play in the Champ for a reason. They have weaknesses and we should have tested those weaknesses more often, and from a greater variety of positions. 

[Red-Robbo]

3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Agree, and whilst it's admirable to try to work the ball into good positions and only take high % shots, I'm also of the opinion that these keepers play in the Champ for a reason. They have weaknesses and we should have tested those weaknesses more often, and from a greater variety of positions. 

Indeedy. When the ball is in their half, keepers have to concentrate 100%. A moment's inattention, perhaps being distracted by a runner off the ball, and you can be a micro-second too late to react. That speculative shot becomes a goal.

And the more shots coming in, the more keepers get on the case with their defenders. That makes the whole back line jittery.

[ExiledAjax]

8 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

Indeedy. When the ball is in their half, keepers have to concentrate 100%. A moment's inattention, perhaps being distracted by a runner off the ball, and you can be a micro-second too late to react. That speculative shot becomes a goal.

And the more shots coming in, the more keepers get on the case with their defenders. That makes the whole back line jittery.

Thing is, you don't see a perfect correlation of number of shots taken to number of goals scored. Just one example this season is Barnsley. They were 4th in the table for number of shots taken, yet scored only 49 goals, barely more than one per game. It's a balance that needs to be struck.

My theory is that our coaching squad decided, after observing the players in training, that this particular set of professional footballers weren't the best at shooting on sight, snap shots, or long shots, and so would have the best chance of scoring the most goals if the were instructed to only shoot from certain positions. Perhaps this is overthinking it, perhaps it give LJ too much credit. It's an unprovable theory without having a very candid chat with the men in charge.

They may have been correct. We cannot know. Maybe there's an alternate universe where we peppered every goalie with 20 shots a game...and finished up where Barnsley did. Lovely number of shots but a useless return on that investment.

 

[bcfc01]

28 minutes ago, Alex_BCFC said:

Almost pointless looking at Holden's games. Season was over for us so nothing riding on them. I thought we laboured to a win against a Hull side who I think in 2nd half of season were the only side to pick up fewer points. We played well at Boro (although they had more chances than most need to score and were dreadful at home). Stoke, Swansea and Preston we failed to beat - so basically couldn't beat anyone half decent when the pressure was off.

That isn't to say Holden won't do well - I hope he does - although it seems unlikely.

We were dreadful last season and just got lucky at various points to be honest to get us into top 6. We fell back to the position we deserved to be in pretty quickly.

Not at all pointless, in fact it was 8 very well deserved points against teams fighting relegation or playoffs.

Hull were the only side to pick up fewer points in the 2nd half of the season ? Nope. Nowhere near.

I understand that you don't rate Holden and didn't want him as head coach (you are not alone), but lets not denigrate him or the team because of it. Both and give some credit where it is due. Both he and the team did well in those 5 games - much better than expected and maybe much better than some wanted with hindsight.