Bournemouth and Watford appointments- is this part of a new reality

[erndogz]

Refreshing to see the the old "managerial merry-go-round" out of order. The usual suspects/vultures seem to have been put out to grass

[bcfc01]

Just now, erndogz said:

Refreshing to see the the old "managerial merry-go-round" out of order. The usual suspects/vultures seem to have been put out to grass

Apart from Warnock.

[Red Skin]

12 hours ago, One Team said:

Had MA and JL stated the appointment was based on the context of COVID and a recession then it would have some merit. They didn’t though and have tried to veil it as being the best appointment and after SL’s rhetoric it just hasn’t made any sense whatsoever.

That would have totally undermined Holden from Day 1.  They only option was to give us the line they have, and let people deduce that recession and covid may be factors.

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 hours ago, Oh Louie louie said:

I fancy watford to go down again.

The chairmen doesn't know his ass from his elbow

I'd be surprised if they were relegation candidates. Could easily slide to midtsble nothingness though. 

Dunno about the 2nd bit. The Pearson sacking was a nonsense, but they've had under this guy the 2nd most successful period in their history.

If they've got a shortcoming it's too big a turnover of managers generally, but 5 years in a row in top flight, an FA Cup semi final and an FA Cup final. Pretty golden days for a club that size.

[MATT BCFC]

Ivic doesn't really strike me as a cheap option. He's won the Greek cup and back to back titles in Israel. 

[Phileas Fogg]

19 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I like many was disappointed with the Holden appointment but with context, do things change a bit? 

We are now officially in recession. While football has been its own little bubble for at least a generation, since the PL anyway has this now changed? Some ways yes and some ways no.

The market is rather subdued though the season only ended on 22nd July. Window open until early, maybe mid October.

Still it may well be quieter at our level, those in Year One and some cases Year Two of Parachute Payments seem better placed to capitalise than most. In the market and in terms of a new manager. 

Interesting then isn't it, that Bournemouth appointed Tindall when Howe departed. Watford an unknown- and this time he's an actual unknown as opposed to the fairly insular media analysis. Vladimir Ivic, had to look him up.

No Hughton, Jokanovic, Howe- or even Cook for us. Not for them either!

Potentially there is a new Championship reality incoming. We, as in the collective we, at Championship level may need to suck it up for a while.

The recession if deep enough could impact on Sky, ticket money, sponsorship deals to name 3.

I don’t think so. A recession isn’t at all surprising, everyone knew it was coming well before LJ went.

[Mr Popodopolous]

13 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I don’t think so. A recession isn’t at all surprising, everyone knew it was coming well before LJ went.

Well yes, the recession point aside. We knew that.

Tindall to Bournemouth- some randomer from the Israeli League to Watford.

Why are we in a better club financial position than those two sides? We aren't! Do we have £50m in parachute payments.

I believe the likes of Howe and Hughton and Jokanovic- maybe Cook as well- might have to sit out the season if their budget and wage budget expectations don't fall into line.

I still raise as well, the outside possibility that our future financial projections without action- and remember the EFL have some kind of early intervention system for FFP- could have put a spanner in the works. If we had a big spike in loss THIS season just gone, they can and actually in their regulations it states this to be the case, would ask a club to project the next two years FFP losses. 

Also it would bring us onto the radar if our 3 year losses to 2020 were >£15m<£39m.

People state SL on Talksport, but they don't seem so keen to state Ashton in April referencing a 'season of austerity'.

[MATT BCFC]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well yes, the recession point aside. We knew that.

Tindall to Bournemouth- some randomer from the Israeli League to Watford.

Why are we in a better club financial position than those two sides? We aren't!

I would argue we are in a better position financially than both. 

If they don't go up in a couple of seasons they could both be in serious trouble that won't be the case for us. 

I've heard from pretty reliable source Deeney is on 100k a week. Both clubs have massive wage bills and rely massively on tv money.

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 minutes ago, MATT BCFC said:

I would argue we are in a better position financially than both. 

If they don't go up in a couple of seasons they could both be in serious trouble that won't be the case for us. 

I've heard from pretty reliable source Deeney is on 100k a week. Both clubs have massive wage bills and rely massively on tv money.

Bournemouth especially look in a mess. However remember too the higher loss limits in the PL- mix of FFP and finances here.

Clubs there can in season 1 of the Championship lose £83m in 3 seasons- so that's Watford and Bournemouth, whereas for us it's £39m.

That is for us the upper loss limit on a rolling basis of £39m- upper being £13m- in PL it's £35m per PL season and £13m at our level.

That's a £44m difference- allowable costs maybe similar but wouldn't be a couple of million different either way IMO per year.

Then you have another £45-50m in Parachute Payments-solidarity payments.

That's FFP. The question of cash flow I suppose is a secondary one- Bournemouth do have significant fee payables.

Significant wage bills yes, but reductions in payment- don't think Watford as bad as Bournemouth financially wise.

However if they can't offer Hughton, Cook what they want then what hope us- they get 50% more in PP than we made in 2018-19! That said there will be a reduction in these owing to Covid.

You're right of course, if they don't go up in a couple of seasons- but here lies a difference between FFP and solvency.

[Phileas Fogg]

27 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well yes, the recession point aside. We knew that.

Tindall to Bournemouth- some randomer from the Israeli League to Watford.

Why are we in a better club financial position than those two sides? We aren't! Do we have £50m in parachute payments.

I believe the likes of Howe and Hughton and Jokanovic- maybe Cook as well- might have to sit out the season if their budget and wage budget expectations don't fall into line.

I still raise as well, the outside possibility that our future financial projections without action- and remember the EFL have some kind of early intervention system for FFP- could have put a spanner in the works. If we had a big spike in loss THIS season just gone, they can and actually in their regulations it states this to be the case, would ask a club to project the next two years FFP losses. 

Also it would bring us onto the radar if our 3 year losses to 2020 were >£15m<£39m.

People state SL on Talksport, but they don't seem so keen to state Ashton in April referencing a 'season of austerity'.

If he said that in April then that’s before sacking LJ. SL’s statements to TalkSport being sooner supersede that.

Ashton was talking about it in the context of transfers anyway, so it’s not especially relevant.

Watford and Bournemouth can do what they want - if it was a trend across all clubs then it might be significant, but two clubs is such a tiny sample size. Birmingham and Boro, who we’re arguably more comparable to anyway as Champ clubs (not relegated ones) have taken different directions.

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

If he said that in April then that’s before sacking LJ. SL’s statements to TalkSport being sooner supersede that.

Ashton was talking about it in the context of transfers anyway, so it’s not especially relevant.

Watford and Bournemouth can do what they want - if it was a trend across all clubs then it might be significant, but two clubs is such a tiny sample size. Birmingham and Boro, who we’re arguably more comparable to anyway as Champ clubs (not relegated ones) have taken different directions.

Middlesbrough won't be spending much IMO. Birmingham- who knows but they seem to have both sold, been cutting costs and the fresh influx of Bellingham £27m profit- and another Spanish striker sold at a profit.

They might be making some sensible additions. Birmingham also had a transitional season under Clotet minus some of their best players.

I just wonder how Covid has affected our losses within the £39m limits too- and future projections,

[Bris Red]

34 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well yes, the recession point aside. We knew that.

Tindall to Bournemouth- some randomer from the Israeli League to Watford.

Why are we in a better club financial position than those two sides? We aren't! Do we have £50m in parachute payments.

I believe the likes of Howe and Hughton and Jokanovic- maybe Cook as well- might have to sit out the season if their budget and wage budget expectations don't fall into line.

I still raise as well, the outside possibility that our future financial projections without action- and remember the EFL have some kind of early intervention system for FFP- could have put a spanner in the works. If we had a big spike in loss THIS season just gone, they can and actually in their regulations it states this to be the case, would ask a club to project the next two years FFP losses. 

Also it would bring us onto the radar if our 3 year losses to 2020 were >£15m<£39m.

People state SL on Talksport, but they don't seem so keen to state Ashton in April referencing a 'season of austerity'.

I cant imagine for one minute Paul Cook would have had too high of a wage budget or transfer budget - he is used to working on shoestring budgets at every other club he has been at. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 minutes ago, bris red said:

I cant imagine for one minute Paul Cook would have had too high of a wage budget or transfer budget - he is used to working on shoestring budgets at every other club he has been at. 

Yeah, Cook would seem the best fit in the circs.

There is also the question though of what terms he was released under by the administrators- he had a compensation clause in his contract and they were holding him as an 'asset' apparently. There's varying levels being put about.

Don't know if it was quite a shoestring at Wigan, was likely a bottom third budget say- but I know what you mean- I also would add perhaps is it possible that the administrators waived the compensation in return for an undertaking that he didn't take a job elsewhere within a given period- would get quite messy if he went back on that! If for example he said he wanted some time out of the game then rocked up at another club, there would be legal wrangling IMO.

[Phileas Fogg]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Middlesbrough won't be spending much IMO. Birmingham- who knows but they seem to have both sold, been cutting costs and the fresh influx of Bellingham £27m profit- and another Spanish striker sold at a profit.

They might be making some sensible additions. Birmingham also had a transitional season under Clotet minus some of their best players.

I just wonder how Covid has affected our losses within the £39m limits too- and future projections,

It’s a well argued and well thought out theory as always. I just don’t agree. 

It can’t be proven, but I’m sure we were after Gerrard who wouldn’t have been cheap. I really don’t think finances were an issue with this appointment - more likely the day to day control the manager would have in relation to Ashton.

I wish we could know for sure.. 

[WolfOfWestStreet]

If we can't afford a good coach why don't we just offload some of the crap in the squad like Watkins, COD or Hakeeb whatshisface never seen him play? They contribute nothing anyway. 

How much does a good manager cost? Surely he's the most important part of the jigsaw? 

My understanding, and correct me if I'm well off the mark, but Jack Hunt was paid more than Lee Johnson ... 

[Mr Popodopolous]

37 minutes ago, WolfOfWestStreet said:

If we can't afford a good coach why don't we just offload some of the crap in the squad like Watkins, COD or Hakeeb whatshisface never seen him play? They contribute nothing anyway. 

How much does a good manager cost? Surely he's the most important part of the jigsaw? 

My understanding, and correct me if I'm well off the mark, but Jack Hunt was paid more than Lee Johnson ... 

Easiersaid than done- even back in January, or last August! 

In terms of finding buyers in some cases, having other sides take on the wages in others. 

May not be that we can't afford a good coach in terms of wages, more in terms of at this time the wage or transfer budget he would ask for.

The good news however! Many players out of contract next summer. The question is whether a bigger name would've accepted a year of transition.

LJ's annual wage was purportedly £500k per year. That's less than the average Championship player, seems an unusual way to go about it tbh!

[Mr Popodopolous]

However when players aplenty have there contracts expire next summer, this opens fresh possibilities.

Could just be a year of transition under Holden to keep the ship steady, develop youth then there's a good platform for a new manager in 2021. 

I think  Gilmartin, Hunt, Baker, Rowe, Eliasson, Watkins, Adelakun, Paterson, Weimann and Diedhiou all expiring to name a few- and I'm sure that's not all!

[mozo]

19 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

However when players aplenty have there contracts expire next summer, this opens fresh possibilities.

Could just be a year of transition under Holden to keep the ship steady, develop youth then there's a good platform for a new manager in 2021. 

I think  Gilmartin, Hunt, Baker, Rowe, Eliasson, Watkins, Adelakun, Paterson, Weimann and Diedhiou all expiring to name a few- and I'm sure that's not all!

Honestly Pops, I'd be happy to lose them. All of them. If we can recruit well. I think there will be a lot of free transfers next summer and we need to rebuild in a smart, targeted way. The right players for the system, with the right attributes for the head coach, whoever that might be...

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Honestly Pops, I'd be happy to lose them. All of them. If we can recruit well. I think there will be a lot of free transfers next summer and we need to rebuild in a smart, targeted way. The right players for the system, with the right attributes for the head coach, whoever that might be...

I think we should try to get some value out of some- keep some, sell some, maybe trade or even in a couple of cases extend some.

Unclear if Walsh out of contract next summer, one to try and keep IMO. Case to be made for a few more?

Quick Google search also suggests O'Leary, Vyner and Moore are up too?

[Davefevs]

Started adding some of the youngsters in, so a work in progress.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Oh Dave- does this mean Maenpaa staying until 2021?? Or does it mean it was exercised until 2020?

Inclusive of youngsters and in order of age, I make those remaining to be:

1. Massengo
2. Janneh
3. Semenyo
4. Bakinson
5. Morton
6. Nurse
7. DaSilva
8. Palmer
9. Morrell
10. Szmodics
11. Nagy
12. O'Dowda
13. Kalas
14. Bentley
15. Wells

Hinds, Holden, Vyner, Cundy, O'Leary, Wollacott, Weimann- these all expire in 2021 but all have the option that can be exercised?

Whereas those who are up- again in order of age:

1. Pearson
2. Towler
3. Owers
4. Loiw
5. Pearson
6. Soady
7. Harper
8. Pring
9. Moore
10. Smith
11. Eliasson
12. Adelakun
13. Diedhiou
14. Baker
15. Watkins
16. Hunt
17. Rowe
18. Gilmartin
19. Williams?
20. Maenpaa?

If indeed the last two aren't up already? As for Walsh is it an option we exercised to 2022 or an option we exercised now to 2021?

Seems both a risk and an opportunity in any case! What a bewilderingly large squad, even including development, we have though! Knew it was big but seeing it all written down like that! 

[Oh Louie louie]

If this watford new boss loses, his first four games, he will be gone.

He doesnt back his managers, this chairmen.

They have a lot of bad eggs in the squad, who they will struggle to move on.

I see trouble there.

[Davefevs]

8 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Oh Dave- does this mean Maenpaa staying until 2021?? Or does it mean it was exercised until 2020?

Inclusive of youngsters and in order of age, I make those remaining to be:

1. Massengo
2. Janneh
3. Semenyo
4. Bakinson
5. Morton
6. Nurse
7. DaSilva
8. Palmer
9. Morrell
10. Szmodics
11. Nagy
12. O'Dowda
13. Kalas
14. Bentley
15. Wells

Hinds, Holden, Vyner, Cundy, O'Leary, Wollacott, Weimann- these all expire in 2021 but all have the option that can be exercised?

Whereas those who are up- again in order of age:

1. Pearson
2. Towler
3. Owers
4. Loiw
5. Pearson
6. Soady
7. Harper
8. Pring
9. Moore
10. Smith
11. Eliasson
12. Adelakun
13. Diedhiou
14. Baker
15. Watkins
16. Hunt
17. Rowe
18. Gilmartin
19. Williams?
20. Maenpaa?

If indeed the last two aren't up already? As for Walsh is it an option we exercised to 2022 or an option we exercised now to 2021?

Seems both a risk and an opportunity in any case! What a bewilderingly large squad, even including development, we have though! Knew it was big but seeing it all written down like that! 

The red dotted line is the end of next season, so shows those in their last season.

Orange bar is showing that their contract has expired.

Exercised is past tense as in its already been exercised.  He and Williams are gone in my book.  Maenpaa was exercised last summer.  Walsh this summer.

Green bar shows when their contract currently ends.  No obligation to exercise option.

1Year means the club still have an option to extend another year beyond the current end of the bar.

[Mr Popodopolous]

21 hours ago, Oh Louie louie said:

If this watford new boss loses, his first four games, he will be gone.

He doesnt back his managers, this chairmen.

They have a lot of bad eggs in the squad, who they will struggle to move on.

I see trouble there.

Interesting. A slow start could continue the instability with a quick change then?

Think Watford ability wise as a squad are plenty good enough to be at the top end of the Championship- and probably even to stay up last year- they went from FA Cup finalists and just outside the top half in 2018/19 to sacking 3 managers and down- that to that?? Off the field may well be an issue as you say.

Often pays off for them- pretty catastrophic last season though!

I'll defer to your knowledge on that one- squad looks pretty decent to me, man for man.

Let us hope they have a slow start anyway, or a big squad churn- any weakness in rivals self-inflicted or otherwise is good for us!

It's strange too, as I just looked at their pre-season, just after finishing 11th with some notable results and getting to the Cup final!

Very good pre-season! Beat Ajax, beat CL qualifying, well I say CL qualifying, periodically and generally top 6 Bayer Leverkusen, Real Sociedad decent Spanish side- and London derby vs QPR. Not really the indicator of a side that will go down the next year in that pre-season or the years leading up- before adding Sarr who is linked with Liverpool and others! Yet come 2019/20, that's exactly what happened. Welbeck on a free as well- on paper looked plenty good enough to survive IMO.

[Oh Louie louie]

Wigan, were in the fa cup final, not so long ago too.

Look at them now.

They were in the prem longer too.

Welbeck did look good on a free, sadly didnt work out.

He will be the first out the door, when fit, hes a quality player.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Wigan won it yeah- and went down the same season. Still think Watford's squad man for man, 11th and Cup final looked good enough- as well as a strong pre-season- to avoid serious relegation trouble. Proved otherwise though!

Sarr- Liverpool are purportedly keen on him, so are Wolves- they might lose a few!