Pathway or One Loan Too Many?

[Davefevs]

Here’s my article in the BP, looking at whether we over-use the loan system with our younger players.

 

[Unan]

Disappointed, no spreadsheet.

[Loco Rojo]

And spelling and grammar looks good too. Definate let down by BP standards Fevs!

[BigTone]

14 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s my article in the BP, looking at whether we over-use the loan system with our younger players.

 

Interesting read

[Leveller]

3 minutes ago, Loco Rojo said:

And spelling and grammar looks good too. Definate let down by BP standards Fevs!

You definitely shouldn’t poke fun at the BP’s spelling if you can’t spell ...

[Loco Rojo]

Just now, Leveller said:

You definitely shouldn’t poke fun at the BP’s spelling if you can’t spell ...

Thats OK. I don't mind people poking fun at my spelling.  (shit the bed - i even suprise myself sometimes )

[Davefevs]

19 minutes ago, Seneca the Younger said:

Disappointed, no spreadsheet.

Cmon STY....you know me better than that

They didn’t make the editors cut!!

 

[IAmNick]

It's an interesting point about some players being perhaps bought just to train up, loan out, then sell on - with not much chance of them ever really getting in the first team.

Just looking at £ in and out maybe that looks like a good deal - we buy for 500k and sell for £2m or whatever. However I wonder if you add in not just the direct monetary aspect of wages, but also all the time spent with coaches, dietitians, physios, managing them personal/pastoral sense as well as the loan etc. what the actual benefit to the club is. Hard to measure maybe!

I think my real frustration is after they do their 2-3 year loan cycle we just parachute a "ready to go" player in front of them for a few million. They have to head back out on loan, the "ready to go" player maybe doesn't cut it, and the original never even gets their chance.

I feel it might just in the long run make us a less attractive option. "Go to Bristol City to be sent out on loan for 3 years then get sold to a middling league 1 outfit".

 

 

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

It's an interesting point about some players being perhaps bought just to train up, loan out, then sell on - with not much chance of them ever really getting in the first team.

it’s a model I’m not very comfortable with if I’m being honest.....

Just looking at £ in and out maybe that looks like a good deal - we buy for 500k and sell for £2m or whatever. However I wonder if you add in not just the direct monetary aspect of wages, but also all the time spent with coaches, dietitians, physios, managing them personal/pastoral sense as well as the loan etc. what the actual benefit to the club is. Hard to measure maybe!

.....exactly, plus it can block pathway, not just in terms of first team opportunities but training too.

I think my real frustration is after they do their 2-3 year loan cycle we just parachute a "ready to go" player in front of them for a few million. They have to head back out on loan, the "ready to go" player maybe doesn't cut it, and the original never even gets their chance.

I feel it might just in the long run make us a less attractive option. "Go to Bristol City to be sent out on loan for 3 years then get sold to a middling league 1 outfit".
 

yep, lots to agree with there Nick.  It’s a big bugbear of mine.  And as per the article, it’s not a criticism of BT either.

 

 

 

[soultrader]

10 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

It's an interesting point about some players being perhaps bought just to train up, loan out, then sell on - with not much chance of them ever really getting in the first team.

Just looking at £ in and out maybe that looks like a good deal - we buy for 500k and sell for £2m or whatever. However I wonder if you add in not just the direct monetary aspect of wages, but also all the time spent with coaches, dietitians, physios, managing them personal/pastoral sense as well as the loan etc. what the actual benefit to the club is. Hard to measure maybe!

I think my real frustration is after they do their 2-3 year loan cycle we just parachute a "ready to go" player in front of them for a few million. They have to head back out on loan, the "ready to go" player maybe doesn't cut it, and the original never even gets their chance.

I feel it might just in the long run make us a less attractive option. "Go to Bristol City to be sent out on loan for 3 years then get sold to a middling league 1 outfit".

 

 

IMO, those costs would be minimal.  Because the are costs the club would incur regardless of if the club has an extra player or not.  In fact if anything, there would be an argument to have as many of these type of players as possible, in order to maximise the value for those costs.

 

(I probably spend too much time with management accountants)

[GrahamC]

Really good article.

On a similar vein there needs to be a debate about a model that sees us hoover up the likes of Eisa, Szmodics & Adelakun, never play them & think we will cover our expenditure in a Covid influenced transfer market.

Adelakun is rumoured to have trained with Oxford for a couple of weeks & is now back with us, playing against W-S-M yesterday.

We have not a hope of getting our £600k back there & sadly that approach now looks like madness in a transfer market where there are currently large numbers of good players without contracts.

[IAmNick]

16 minutes ago, soultrader said:

IMO, those costs would be minimal.  Because the are costs the club would incur regardless of if the club has an extra player or not.  In fact if anything, there would be an argument to have as many of these type of players as possible, in order to maximise the value for those costs.

 

(I probably spend too much time with management accountants)

Yeah perhaps you're right, I genuinely have no idea.

I guess my issue is they're not an "asset" you just buy and let sit on a shelf (as it were) to accrue value before you sell them on in a couple of years. They're young players who probably need a fair amount of input of all types which is a resource limited by the number of people you have who can do so.

One extra player maybe you wouldn't incur extra costs, but at some point you're either going to have to hire more people to manage them, or dilute the management they get which will probably end up defeating the point of the entire operation... or even have an adverse effect on your first team.

[Lrrr]

54 minutes ago, Leveller said:

You definitely shouldn’t poke fun at the BP’s spelling if you can’t spell ...

Just means @Loco Rojo will be writing for BP soon

[Loco Rojo]

1 minute ago, Lrrr said:

Just means @Loco Rojo will be writing for BP soon

Top of the world. I made it

[Davefevs]

32 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Really good article.

On a similar vein there needs to be a debate about a model that sees us hoover up the likes of Eisa, Szmodics & Adelakun, never play them & think we will cover our expenditure in a Covid influenced transfer market.

Adelakun is rumoured to have trained with Oxford for a couple of weeks & is now back with us, playing against W-S-M yesterday.

We have not a hope of getting our £600k back there & sadly that approach now looks like madness in a transfer market where there are currently large numbers of good players without contracts.

One of the summarising paragraphs refers to that model and it being flawed post-covid.

[ExiledAjax]

As expected a very good summary. I agree with your assessment of the players you analysed, certainly O'Leary, Moore and Vyner all need to be in the first team this year.

You sat on the fence with Morrell and Walsh.  I'd say Morrell shouldn't have been loaned last season, but Walsh should have been.

Morrell proved himself capable in the cup games he played in early 2019, I particularly remember the Huddersfield game. His performances for Wales also need to be taken into account and so far as I know he is well regarded by their fans. Had we kept Morrell and maybe not signed Nagy, I think we'd be in at least the same place we are now.

Walsh was clearly not ready to come from Everton's academy and go straight into a Championship promotion fight. He needed that loan, basically proved himself way too good for League One - thus the logic is that he should be able to cut it in the Championship this season.

The other lads I think are less consequential, but again I agree with your assessments.

I shall be providing feedback to the Editor regarding the lack of a spreadsheet.

[Red Skin]

Good article.

One of your final points concerns me most.  Entrusting other clubs to their final stages of development. 

We need our philosophy and style of play embedded in all age groups at the club.  Our players start within our system to learn this so transition to the first come easier.  

Loans should be short term - 6 or 12 month - just to get them used to playing man's football and to understand what's at stake. 

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

Really enjoyed the article and the in-depth analysis. I might be in the minority but I was grateful for no spreadsheet as I doubt the BP could handle such technology. 

Semenyo definitely needs another loan. If I were to keep a young striker around it would be Saikou Janneh. Although I can't profess to seeing a lot of either, from the little I have seen Janneh looks a more natural finisher. 

Isnt Aden Baldwin in a similar position to that which Conor Lemonheigh-Evans found himself in. Now 23 but seemingly going nowhere with City. Time to cut ties 

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

Really enjoyed the article and the in-depth analysis. I might be in the minority but I was grateful for no spreadsheet as I doubt the BP could handle such technology. 

Semenyo definitely needs another loan. If I were to keep a young striker around it would be Saikou Janneh. Although I can't profess to seeing a lot of either, from the little I have seen Janneh looks a more natural finisher. 

Isnt Aden Baldwin in a similar position to that which Conor Lemonheigh-Evans found himself in. Now 23 but seemingly going nowhere with City. Time to cut ties 

I would love Janneh to have this season training with the first XI, starting cup games, on the bench in league games and getting those 15-20 first team appearances. 

I think the thing we miss at the moment is giving these young men that "transition" season. Seems as though under LJ it was a binary case of either out of the team and loaned, or playing every match a la Kelly and Massengo.

[bcfc01]

6 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

Really enjoyed the article and the in-depth analysis. I might be in the minority but I was grateful for no spreadsheet as I doubt the BP could handle such technology. 

Semenyo definitely needs another loan. If I were to keep a young striker around it would be Saikou Janneh. Although I can't profess to seeing a lot of either, from the little I have seen Janneh looks a more natural finisher. 

Isnt Aden Baldwin in a similar position to that which Conor Lemonheigh-Evans found himself in. Now 23 but seemingly going nowhere with City. Time to cut ties 

Baldwin has had 5 or 6 loans and contracted until June next year (plus 12 month option).

Another on a make or break season.

[Lrrr]

31 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

Really enjoyed the article and the in-depth analysis. I might be in the minority but I was grateful for no spreadsheet as I doubt the BP could handle such technology. 

Semenyo definitely needs another loan. If I were to keep a young striker around it would be Saikou Janneh. Although I can't profess to seeing a lot of either, from the little I have seen Janneh looks a more natural finisher. 

Isnt Aden Baldwin in a similar position to that which Conor Lemonheigh-Evans found himself in. Now 23 but seemingly going nowhere with City. Time to cut ties 

I imagine we will after this season, again you need players to play u23's football and having one or two 23 year olds can be good for the younger ones in the age group to help them. He's also numerous times travelled as a 19th player. 

[And Its Smith]

If Walsh and Morrell do well this season will fans say that proves they shouldn’t have been loaned out last season? How do we know they aren’t doing well BECAUSE of the loan?

[Davefevs]

18 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

If Walsh and Morrell do well this season will fans say that proves they shouldn’t have been loaned out last season? How do we know they aren’t doing well BECAUSE of the loan?

Swings and roundabouts isn’t it?  My main beef with those two, was the events where we bought in pathway blockers (Massengo and Nagy) and sold Pack.  

I get there is no perfect model, hence writing a piece on different players and concluding different answers for each....and I’m sure many of you will have different opinions in each....which is kinda the point.

[Yellow&Blue&Red]

I'd be interested to know what proportion of wages L1 and L2 clubs have typically paid. And how badly this model is damaged not just by Covid but by salary caps.

[Lrrr]

14 minutes ago, Yellow&Blue&Red said:

I'd be interested to know what proportion of wages L1 and L2 clubs have typically paid. And how badly this model is damaged not just by Covid but by salary caps.

That's a hell of a shout, presumably L1 clubs won't be able to pay over (think it is...) £3000 for a loan player any more, so any of our lads on more than that we'd have to keep paying more

[spudski]

We've become a poor man's Chelsea.

Buying players cheaply ...loaning them out and hoping a couple make the grade for top 6 level.

Anything else gets discarded and sold at a profit after a few seasons.

The system imo, works for the level we are at...mid table Championship.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

If it ultimately makes us a profit, helps us form solid relationships with feeder clubs and leads to a % making the first team I’d say it’s working. It’s just a culture shock for our fans because it’s different to how we’ve operated before.

[Prinny]

6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s my article in the BP, looking at whether we over-use the loan system with our younger players.

 

This is the best Bristol city content in the post for about.. well ever, but I'm gonna disagree on a few of them.

Zak was crap for Rotherham, they really disliked him, especially at full back. You know my views on Taylor Moore, I think you're way too high on him considering what he's done so far for us. And if you have them both here, then they block each other. If you want to develop them, you want them to play. We were often playing four at the back so two centre halves, even with Bakers record, a fit Kalas and Baker are both ahead of Moore and Vyner.

Ditto Morrell and Walsh. If you want them to be better they need to play. You're not going to argue that either would be better than Brownhill, so in a two man midfield one would miss out for sure. And neither of them have have proven anything at this level. We had Massengo who also needs game time, Nagy who a weird first season, but I'd say playing in Serie A is a better indication than playing for Cheltenham oh and Korey Smith with Tommy Rowe, O'Dowda. When do they play? Even in a three now, we just signed Joe Williams (injured ofc), Paterson is playing really well so we have one spot left. Massengo, Nagy, O'Dowda, Elliasson

Jonny Smith at Tranmere was very different to Jonny Smith at Oldham, big step up in performances and consistency and it seemed to click there. Obviously ask his dad to comment on that if that's fair. But from reading reactions and the couple of games I saw there was a big difference. 

Whilst appreciating that a young footballer’s development is not a straight line, the club’s recent recruitment of certain players does appear to be blocking the much-used term - “player pathway”.

So who's on the pathway and who's a progress blocker and when do you actually ask the player themselves to step up and perform?

At what age do you have to sign to be considered a pathway prospect and not a progress blocker? Couldn't you say that Walsh and Moore who we bought are progress blockers for Morrell and Vyner who are IIRC fully home grown? Pedro Pereira is younger than Vyner, if we sign him permanently as just rumoured, is he now on the pathway and Vyner is the blocker if he is ever picked ahead of him?

I'd like some definitions so we can frame the discussion. So what is the pathway? And how do you qualify to be on it?

Doesn't Hinds career trajectory remind you of Federico Macheda so far?

[Garycpos]

3 minutes ago, Prinny said:

Jonny Smith at Tranmere was very different to Jonny Smith at Oldham, big step up in performances and consistency and it seemed to click there. Obviously ask his dad to comment on that if that's fair. But from reading reactions and the couple of games I saw there was a big difference. 

Started off at Tranmere on fire !! scoring 5 goals in 8-12 weeks plus assists then Mellon at Christmas signed a L1 Winger from Walsall on loan with the alledged clause that he must play in the team !! Jonny then was used as a bit part player and the Loan system was abused to keep player numbers up. One of Jonnys better traits is the ability to retain speed in the latter part of the games, but Mellon took him off at 50-60 minutes in the majority of games thereby affecting stamina and he would look to the bench every time 60 minutes was approaching, just look at the amount of goals he scored in the second half for the stats on that for Oldham. Oldham, although they had their troubles had a good manager in Dino Maamria and also a fantastic family vibe behind the scenes, and to be fair a military type of trainer which improved him mentally and physically and he flourished. BELIEF for a younger player is ABSOLUTE and to nurture that as a manager is a very good trait that will get the best out of your players at your disposal and this is what he did, not difficult just good coaching, and his efforts were rewarded and his mindset changed forever. I realise now even though I am myself a FA Coach, that older managers in the majority do not suit younger players, and I think the reason for that is that they believe they will let them down, and to back that up look at the average age of Mellons Team in that year, probably 30/31 yrs of age was the average, and Teams that had a good vibrant mix ran them into the ground. New Techniques, faster ball play, all contribute to a younger type of style whilst I accept you need the calm heads and voices of experience to hold back inexperience or bad decision making.

 

Some players mature at different stages, a common conundrum as players have been let go and then went to haunt those club decisions further down the line to the detriment of the original scout or manager.... Thats life, it happens, ...... and to go back to the origins of this thread I fully agree on the loan system if the player and the club see progress in using it, and I dont see an end point or a fixed period of loan time being a contributing factor especially if the loan club picks up the tab. Yes, at some point it is time to say goodbye when its mutually beneficial but again if progress is being made year on year you could just have a slow burner and I dont have to remind anyone of the footballers who fit that category .....

Good discussion thread .... Thanks for the comments and posts really interesting to read...

[Prinny]

59 minutes ago, Garycpos said:

Good discussion thread .... Thanks for the comments and posts really interesting to read...

Thank you for the detailed response. Won't ask about the current transfer links of course!

Can I ask you if this is a fair set of statements? 

It's better for Jonny's career progression to play for Oldham than not play for Bristol City.

It's better for Jonny's career if he's not in the team if he's on loan or no one wants him on loan that he trains at the highest level possible.

It's better for Bristol City today to have Jonny Smith at the club so we can use the asset that we have.

It's better for Bristol City in the future to have Jonny go out on loan and play league football rather than not use him.

And this is just a information question but is he comfortable playing in that role behind two strikers which also includes doing some central midfield work that we seem to be using for Jamie Paterson? I feel from what I've seen his skill set fits there perfectly.