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City v Stoke City - Match day 2

Davefevs

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Davefevs

Davefevs

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Stoke City: [Sunday 20th September – 14:00] – What can we expect? @fevsfootball

 For many fans, Sunday’s match at the Bet365 Stadium versus Stoke City represents the first real test for Dean Holden’s team.  Three straight wins has been played down by some fans due to the perceived level of quality of City’s opponents so far.  But I think that underestimates an encouraging start to the campaign and a team that appear to be able overcome problems whilst staying within the fundamental 352 formation.  Sunday’s opponents are in their third season back in the Championship after a long spell in the Premier League.  Many pundits’ favourites to return immediately, they have underperformed, finishing 14th in 2018/19 and 15th last season.  In fact, under Nathan Jones last season there was a real danger of them falling into League One.  This year is their final year of Parachute Payments and puts real financial pressure on The Potters to have a successful season 

Manager:

 Stoke are managed by Portadown born Michael O’Neill, a skilful midfielder in his day at the likes of Newcastle United, Hibernian and Wigan Athletic, he earned 31 International caps for Northern Ireland too.

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Figure 1 - Michael O'Neil (Stoke City Manager)

But it is as a manager where he really come to prominence.  After a spell at Brechin City he took over at Shamrock Rovers, guiding them to the League of Ireland title in 2010 and Cup in 2011, as well as taking them to the group stages of the Europa League.  His success led to him getting the Northern Ireland job in December 2011, taking them to their first ever European Championship Finals in 2016, no mean achievement!  He was appointed as Stoke City manager in November last year but carried on with Northern Ireland temporarily as they were still in the Euro 2020 play-offs.  With Covid postponing those matches, O’Neill resigned in April this year.

 Under O’Neill, Stoke have steadily improved. Having taken charge in the relegation places, their results were more akin to a top 10 team under O’Neill’s guidance and eventually finished in 15th.  Their draw at Ashton Gate in July ensured mathematical safety.

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Figure 2 - Championship results under O'Neill (source: Transfermarkt)

They’ve started this season with a scoreless draw at home to Blackpool in the cup but progressed on penalties, followed up by another 0-0 draw at Millwall in the league.  On Thursday evening they scored their first goal of the campaign but kept another clean sheet to knock Wolves out.  This was despite resting several players.  So little advantage to City of an extra day’s rest.

Formation / System:

 O’Neill had been pretty fixed on a 4231/4141 until the back end of last season, when he switched to a 352 to match up Bristol City.  He has stuck to that since in the Championship, encouraged by wins against Brentford and Nottingham Forest at the backend of 2019/20.  

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Figure 3 - Stoke v Millwall (12th September 2020)

Like Holden, O’Neill’s 352 is retained through substitutions (Steven Fletcher for Tyrese Campbell, Jacob Brown for Sam Vokes and Jordan Thompson for Nick Powell).  In terms of style, they are more direct and physical than City, but have some quality in certain individuals to give them balance, especially in advanced areas.  They are very disciplined in shape too.  I’m sure Chris Brunt will be passing on as much inside information as he can from his time spent under O’Neill in the national side.

Creating chances:

 A lot of Stoke’s attacking will come from diagonal balls up to their forwards and picking up nod downs and loose balls.  But when they can get good possession higher up the pitch, Powell and Clucas become dangerous especially when finding space between the lines, even in tight areas.

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Figure 4 - Mikel Obi pass to Nick Powell (v Millwall)

In the picture (above) Mikel Obi under no pressure threads a pass through to Powell, who has got wrong side of Millwall’s two defensive midfielders.

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Figure 5 - Powell feeds Campbell

As the move continues, Powell gets beyond the midfield line (above) and turning towards goal, he has runners in Campbell and Vokes available to slide a pass into or he can look to get into a shooting position himself.  Millwall’s centre back is caught in a dilemma as to track Campbell or close down Powell.

Defending:

 O’Neill’s defensive shape is very structured.  None of his three centre-backs are expansive with the ball, preferring to stay as a close-knit three as much as possible.  However, their reluctance to cover down the sides leaves their wingbacks exposed in transition.

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Figure 6 - Wingbacks caught forward (v Blackpool)

In the picture above we can see both wingbacks caught forward and Blackpool with a three-on-three with Stoke’s centre-backs retaining their narrow formation. 

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Figure 7 - Stoke's right wingback isolated (v Millwall)

In the next picture (above), Millwall have moved the ball quickly from their right to left leaving their winger with a one-on-one against Stoke’s exposed right wingback because his centre-back is slow to shift across.

Recruitment:

 Stoke made their move early in the window recruiting a fair bit of experience in the process by bringing in four free transfers.  They also added the versatile forward / winger / wingback Jacob Brown for £2m from Barnsley.

Arrivals of note:

§  Jon Mikel Obi (33) – unattached

§  Morgan Fox (26) – free (Sheffield Wednesday)

§  Steven Fletcher (33) – free (Sheffield Wednesday)

§  James Chester (31) – free (Aston Villa – having been on loan)

§  Jacob Brown (22) - £2m (Barnsley)

Departures of note:

 However, there has been an element of balancing the books.

§  Peter Etebo – loan (Galatasaray - Turkey)

§  Benik Afobe – loan (Trabzonspor - Turkey)

§  Mame Diouf – free (Hatayspor - Turkey)

§  Ryan Woods – loan (Millwall)

There is still a doubt whether prize-asset Jack Butland will still be a Stoke player at the end of the window.

Possible line-up:

 GK: Adam Davies (26) – ex-Barnsley stopper who signed last summer, forcing his way into the team at the end of last season when Butland got injured.  Retained his place at the start of this season and has one Wales cap.

 RWB: Tommy Smith (28) – £4m signing from Huddersfield in July 2019, having started at Manchester City.  Combative full-back who made 32 appearances in his first season in the Potteries.  Will be interesting to see if Jacob Brown (22) comes in to give Stoke a more attacking and energy packed wing-back option.

 RCB: James Chester (31) – started at Manchester United before joining Hull in 2011, moving to West Brom for £10m in 2015.  A year later he was signed by Aston Villa for £8m.  Spent the second half of last season on loan to Stoke, before returning on a free transfer this summer.  Vastly experienced at Championship level.

 CB: Danny Batth (29) – another experienced centre-back, having signed from Wolves for £3m in January.  Previously had loans at Sheffield Wednesday and Middlesbrough.  Has mixed emotions of Ashton Gate, scoring the equaliser last season, but red carded for Wolves in 2017/18 season.

 LCB: Bruno Martins-Indi (28) – Dutch international (34 caps) who signed from Porto in 2017 having been on loan.  A Feyenoord youth product who is probably best suited to a back-three and has played well over 100 games for the Potters

 LWB: Morgan Fox (26) – former Charlton youngster who arrived on a free transfer from Sheffield Wednesday in the summer.  Like at RWB, we could see James McLean (31) offer a more attack minded option on the left side.  Physical player, but also a good left foot.

 DM: John Mikel Obi (33) – Nigerian international with 89 caps.  Seems to have been around forever since his high publicity transfer wrangle between Manchester United and Chelsea, when moving from Norway’s FK Lyn in 2006. Needs a big Trophy Room to house all of his medals won over the years, ranging from African Nations Cup title with the Super Eagles, to Premier League and Champions League with Chelsea.  Destructive midfielder on his day but the epitome of keeping it simple in possession.

 AM: Sam Clucas (29) – sweet left footed midfielder who joined Stoke from Swansea for £6m in 2018.  Previously at Hull whilst City fans may recall him playing for Chesterfield in 2014/15.  Got goals in that left foot and that marks him down as my DANGERMAN on Sunday.

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 AM: Nick Powell (26) – gifted midfielder who started at Crewe before a £6.5m move to Manchester United.  Drifted around before finding form at Wigan under Paul Cook, arriving at Stoke on a free Transfer last summer.  Also has a good goalscoring record, often playing in the hole behind the striker(s).

 CF: Tyrese Campbell (20) – son of former Arsenal and Everton striker Kevin Campbell, who broke through last season having had a good season at Shrewsbury on loan.  Got his dad’s eye for a goal with 9 in 18 starts (15 subs).  Powerful and direct who likes to drift inside onto his left foot.  England u20 international, so well-known to Keith Downing.  If Stoke want to go more direct, then we could see Scottish international Steven Fletcher (33) come in.  Attacks the ball well in the box

 CF: Sam Vokes (30) – much travelled target man, who had an injury ravaged loan spell at City in 2011.  Over 100 career goals and 64 Welsh caps, he had his most productive scoring spell at Burnley.  There is also the option to go more mobile with ex-Millwall man Lee Gregory (32).  Full of energy, his first season at Stoke was disappointing, netting only 6 goals.

How do we win?

 There are a few areas where City can take advantage.  As above, in Stoke’s set-up, there is room to expose them down the sides of a very narrow centre-back threesome.  Much may depend who O’Neill selects in the wing-back positions.  Fox and Smith more defensively minded than Brown and McLean.

 Another area is to move Mikel Obi out of his comfort zone in front of the back three.  He will use his vast experience to break up play and stop the likes of Paterson finding pockets of space between the lines.  City will need to move him around by not going central too early in the phase of possession, but then moving the ball quickly when they are in the final third.

 Finally, in terms of not giving Stoke opportunities to dominate it is important Clucas and Powell are not given time on the ball in our final third.  Both are very capable of clever passes or shots from around the edge of the box.

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Figure 8 - Powell facing up the Blackpool defence, slides a pass to Vokes on the half-turn

Prediction:

 I see this being a game of few chances with defences on top.  I think many fans would be happy to see City come home with a point.

Stoke City 0 : 0 Bristol City

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mozo

mozo

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Can't wait for the line up. It will tell us so much about Holden's outlook.

We had a merry old time destroying an understrength Northampton side, but a trip to Stoke is a real test. 

I don't expect the silky samba football today (from either side), and we'll learn a few things about our team.

Does Holden persevere with Weimann in midfield?

Can our new look defence cope at this level?

Is the confidence still apparent?

Fascinating game ahead.

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EstoniaTallinnRed

EstoniaTallinnRed

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Afternoon all!   Is this going to be the match day thread?   I think today will be a hard fought out draw, hope we win obviously, but what ever happens, as long as we move the ball quickly and forward as much as possible, keep at them, I will be happy. So, COME ON YOU RED'S

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