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Manager of the month?


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1 hour ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Surely DH must be in with a shout along with the Reading boss?

Arguable that they`ve beaten `better` opposition (Cardiff away, Derby away and Barnsley home) but only got to the 2nd round of the cup.

Opposition pretty similar IMO.

Stoke have been many peoples choice for a playoff season (never understood why myself) and hadn't lost at home in 2020 or something (stat probably not correct, but it was on those lines).

Fairly similarish to Cardiff there.

Derby and Sheffield Wednesday, 6 positions, but only 8 points different last season. Both teams who had been in playoff fights for years and then started dropping down the table (Wednesday further along on the path, but both clubs have gone down similar routes.) Wednesday at a solid Championship side, but not one that will challenge for the playoffs seriously. Derby more likely to be in a playoff push, but wouldn't expect them to make it. After accounting for the Wednesday point deduction I wouldn't expect more than 10 points (so 22 in real terms) between them.

Barnsley avoided relegation by Wigan having a points deduction. Coventry won League 1. If it weren't for Wigan's issues then Barnsley would be playing the horse punchers this season.

Then the teams we played other results.

Derby have lost all 3.

Cardiff have lost 2 and won 1.

Barnsley have lost 2 and drawn 1.

4 points between those teams from a combined 9 games. All have lost to teams other than Reading.

Whereas

Sheffield Wednesday won 1, drawn 1 and lost one.

Stoke, won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1.

Coventry (this is getting familiar). Won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1.

12 points from their combined 9 games and each have only lost one time- to us.

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12 hours ago, JamesBCFC said:

Whereas

Sheffield Wednesday won 1, drawn 1 and lost one.

Stoke, won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1.

Coventry (this is getting familiar). Won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1.

12 points from their combined 9 games and each have only lost one time- to us.

When you put it like that, that's pretty exciting isn't it?!

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Its almost like we have 3 managers.

Taking nothing away from Dean who has been great, I think a major part of our transformation has been due to the 2 new coaches who are clearly very good at their jobs with strong personalities.

I am sure that have a serious input into the team selection and tactics for every game.

A good thing I feel and something that was lacking under Lee's authoritarian leadership.

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1 hour ago, LondonBristolian said:

I don't buy into the curse. It's just basic stats. Winning manager of the month usually means going 4 or 5 games unbeaten and, given that six game or more unbeaten runs are comparatively rare, it is more likely someone who has gone 5 games unbeaten will lose their next game...

Precisely. Only takes a quick Google to find the following (and many other explanations) https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.racingpost.com/sport/why-the-efl-manager-of-the-month-award-is-a-blessing-not-a-curse/399338/amp

I investigated EFL Managers of the Month in the ten seasons 2009-10 to 2018-19. For every month from August to April an award was given to a manager in the Championship, a manager in League One and a manager in League Two. So there were three awards for nine months over ten seasons, a total of 270.

I noted the results of a recipient’s team in the month for which the award was given, in the next month and in all other months that season.

In the month their manager won the award teams averaged 2.6 points per game. The next month they averaged 1.6 points per game. That was a huge drop. It should not be surprising, though.

A team who averaged 2.6 points per game over a whole 46-game season would finish with 120 points. The record total in the EFL is 106 by Reading in the Championship in 2005-06. A pace of 2.6 points per game is super-fast. Only rarely will a team keep it up even for a couple of months.

I have heard people call the Manager of the Month award a curse. It is not. The month of the award is a blessing, for the manager, his players and their fans. Afterwards, more often than not, things become whatever is going to pass for ordinary.

Over the next month, as I said, teams averaged 1.6 points per game. Over the rest of the season – that is to say, every month apart from the month of the award and the next month – they also averaged 1.6 points per game.

So we can make this general statement: the Manager of the Month award is given for an exception, after which results return to normal. The strange thing is not any downturn following the award but the upturn for which it was given.

It isn't a "curse". I can't actually believe some seem to seriously think it is. 

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2 hours ago, LondonBristolian said:

I don't buy into the curse. It's just basic stats. Winning manager of the month usually means going 4 or 5 games unbeaten and, given that six game or more unbeaten runs are comparatively rare, it is more likely someone who has gone 5 games unbeaten will lose their next game...

I still salute magpies just to be on the safe side, so ..........

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20 hours ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Surely DH must be in with a shout along with the Reading boss?

Arguable that they`ve beaten `better` opposition (Cardiff away, Derby away and Barnsley home) but only got to the 2nd round of the cup.

Not sure I'd agree with the opposition point. After 3 games, the teams they have played have 4 points between them. 

Our opponents have 12 points. 

Not sure that indicates that their opposition have been better than ours. 

 

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Just to jump on: I'd love Dean Holden (and by extension Downing and Simpson) to be MOTM for September. 

I'm still disappointed with the manner in which he was appointed. The club need to review how they did that, and how they communicated with the press and public through the process.

However, the new triumvirate have clearly improved us. For me the most impressive thing is that we are now a team who can get better over the course of a match. We can turn the screw, suck a team in and then hit them when they tire, it's impressive. Also, although still a small sample size, our average shot ratio so far is currently +2.33 per game, a massive improvement over the -5.33 we were on at the same time last season. Over these first three games we've averaged 12.33 shots for (up from 10 at this stage, and across the whole, of last season) and allowed 10 (down from approx 15 at this stage, and across the whole, of last season). We've seen a similar improvement in the numbers for shots on target as well. Simultaneously we have maintained our clinical finishing from last season, and as is obvious, have tightened up magnificently at the back.

It is still a tiny sample size, but all of this is far more indicative of an ability to carry some form (not 100% winning form of course) through the rest of this season.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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15 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Just to jump on: I'd love Dean Holden (and by extension Downing and Simpson) to be MOTM for September. 

I'm still disappointed with the manner in which he was appointed. The club need to review how they did that, and how they communicated with the press and public through the process.

However, the new triumvirate have clearly improved us. For me the most impressive thing is that we are now a team who can get better over the course of a match. We can turn the screw, suck a team in and then hit them when they tire, it's impressive. Also, although still a small sample size, our average shot ratio so far is currently +2.33 per game, a massive improvement over the -5.33 we were on at the same time last season. Over these first three games we've averaged 12.33 shots for (up from 10 at this stage, and across the whole, of last season) and allowed 10 (down from approx 15 at this stage, and across the whole, of last season). We've seen a similar improvement in the numbers for shots on target as well. Simultaneously we have maintained our clinical finishing from last season, and as is obvious, have tightened up magnificently at the back.

It is still a tiny sample size, but all of this is far more indicative of an ability to carry some form (not 100% winning form of course) through the rest of this season.

Whilst I was “stating the bleedin’ obvious” my pre-season review was based on:

- creating more chances

- conceding less chances

I tweeted this earlier....great minds think alike 😂

 

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3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Whilst I was “stating the bleedin’ obvious” my pre-season review was based on:

- creating more chances

- conceding less chances

I tweeted this earlier....great minds think alike 😂

 

Thanks Dave, yeh I think we spoke when Holden was appointed about the idea of targeting an improvement in the shots for/against - goals for/against will naturally change, and as a result you should be more likely to win. 

Thanks for posting the passing stats as well. I think my number one take from those is that we can see an improvement in the number of attacks that actually end in a shot. that was a big weakness at the end of Johnson's reign - I said at the time that we were a counter-attacking team that had forgotten how to do the attacking part. 

Have you looked at how we compare to the rest of the league? I just very quickly checked a bit of whoscored and although we are good we hover around 7th or 8th for most metrics.

We also still don't like a long shot, although we're taking more of these than under LJ - up to 27% of our shots from about 18% (iirc) under LJ. We've not scored one yet - but then only 4 teams have so it's nothing to worry about.

As I say, and you recognise, we are currently working from a sample of 270 minutes (I don't have/use League Cup stats), so it's very early days. But overall very encouraging.

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6 hours ago, Matthew me said:

Let reading have it....

So many times it's the kiss of death.

That said, DH has made an outstanding start to his tenure at City. Congrats to him and the coaching staff. Well done lads

Is it actually, or do people just say that now?

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2 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

Is it actually, or do people just say that now?

See my post above mate. It's an old wives tale. The exception is the form for the month for which it is awarded, not the fact that such exceptional form is not continued. Essentially, we've been perfect so far - we're very unlikely to continue that perfection across another 6 matches. We can expect to regress to a lower ppg in October - likely around 1.6 ppg if we perform in accordance with the average month following a manager winning the MOTM from the past ten years.

From 6 games we could therefore reasonably expect 10 points*, so perhaps 3 wins, a draw, and a couple of losses. Or 2 wins and 4 draws if you want to believe we can continue undefeated. That would be 19 points from the opening 9 games, probably a GD of around +7 or 8, and we'd expect to be sat in the top 4 or 5 in the league. 

Would that be a manifestation of a "curse". Of course not.

*of course, we might do better or worse than this. This is just what is most likely.

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1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

Thanks Dave, yeh I think we spoke when Holden was appointed about the idea of targeting an improvement in the shots for/against - goals for/against will naturally change, and as a result you should be more likely to win. 

Thanks for posting the passing stats as well. I think my number one take from those is that we can see an improvement in the number of attacks that actually end in a shot. that was a big weakness at the end of Johnson's reign - I said at the time that we were a counter-attacking team that had forgotten how to do the attacking part. 

Have you looked at how we compare to the rest of the league? I just very quickly checked a bit of whoscored and although we are good we hover around 7th or 8th for most metrics.

We also still don't like a long shot, although we're taking more of these than under LJ - up to 27% of our shots from about 18% (iirc) under LJ. We've not scored one yet - but then only 4 teams have so it's nothing to worry about.

As I say, and you recognise, we are currently working from a sample of 270 minutes (I don't have/use League Cup stats), so it's very early days. But overall very encouraging.

Just picking some stuff off of Wyscout.

Expected points - 3rd (I hate this metric personally, but last year we were bottom half)

Key Passes - 3rd

Passing Tempo - 8th (so moving it relatively quickly)

Deep completions - top (passes successfully made inside 20m of the goal8

xG - 5th / xG per shot - 5th

xG against - 4th best 

Ball possession - 9th

Shots - 7th / on target - 7th

Crosses - 19th (so we are going more central)

Fouls against us - 4th most

Shots against - 13th

Shots against blocked - 2nd (good but prefer to stop the shots)

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Just picking some stuff off of Wyscout.

Expected points - 3rd (I hate this metric personally, but last year we were bottom half)

Key Passes - 3rd

Passing Tempo - 8th (so moving it relatively quickly)

Deep completions - top (passes successfully made inside 20m of the goal8

xG - 5th / xG per shot - 5th

xG against - 4th best 

Ball possession - 9th

Shots - 7th / on target - 7th

Crosses - 19th (so we are going more central)

Fouls against us - 4th most

Shots against - 13th

Shots against blocked - 2nd (good but prefer to stop the shots)

 

 

I'd pick out Deep Completions as the most satisfying of those. Not only are we top, but that's a dangerous, aggressive statistic to be doing well in.

Nice to see less of a reliance on crosses (although I think we reverted to that against Villa).

Agreed on shots blocked. If we can get "shots against" below 10 per game then that would be fantastic.

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Creating more chances, conceding less chances and more possession so far, positive stuff.

Rest in possession one part of it, opposition chasing the ball and tiring themselves out or losing shape another aspect. Some will choose to sit in of course.

Under the radar is decent. Strong case for Holden getting it, but is it a bit of a jinx.

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2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

See my post above mate. It's an old wives tale. The exception is the form for the month for which it is awarded, not the fact that such exceptional form is not continued. Essentially, we've been perfect so far - we're very unlikely to continue that perfection across another 6 matches. We can expect to regress to a lower ppg in October - likely around 1.6 ppg if we perform in accordance with the average month following a manager winning the MOTM from the past ten years.

From 6 games we could therefore reasonably expect 10 points*, so perhaps 3 wins, a draw, and a couple of losses. Or 2 wins and 4 draws if you want to believe we can continue undefeated. That would be 19 points from the opening 9 games, probably a GD of around +7 or 8, and we'd expect to be sat in the top 4 or 5 in the league. 

Would that be a manifestation of a "curse". Of course not.

*of course, we might do better or worse than this. This is just what is most likely.

Thanks I missed that, good post

1 hour ago, Sturny said:

I hope not, want us to fly under the radar as long as possible 

This is second to the above in terms of cliches. There's no way any team at the top of the table will be "under the radar"

15 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Creating more chances, conceding less chances and more possession so far, positive stuff.

Rest in possession one part of it, opposition chasing the ball and tiring themselves out or losing shape another aspect. Some will choose to sit in of course.

Under the radar is decent. Strong case for Holden getting it, but is it a bit of a jinx.

it's not 😂

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Just now, MarcusX said:

Thanks I missed that, good post

This is second to the above in terms of cliches. There's no way any team at the top of the table will be "under the radar"

Its early days, I don't think many people take the table very seriously as of yet. Though I agree with that statment in general 

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