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Dean Holden was on the Jaeger


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I really can't believe how many people believe figures being banded about by the Government.

Before Covid...the majority of people believed politicians etc were in it for their own personal gain, were liars, and had agendas, and gave out stats that suited those agendas.

Covid comes along, and all of a sudden people believe everything they are being told by the Government. 🙈🤔🤣

It's nuts. It's a world pandemic, that's being addressed differently from country to country. Each doing something differently...like covid acts differently in each country 😩🙈🙄🤣

Look how Sweden has worked, compared to us. They haven't locked down...they just isolated the vulnerable.

Scientists across the globe have said it's here forever. We will all eventually get it. So if that's the case, how can you proceed like we are forever? You can't...it's impossible.

Isolate the vulnerable...carry on as normal but with self distancing. We have to build Immunity.

Vaccines aren't the answer...we have flu vaccines...we still catch the flu. 🙄

If isolation is the answer...why is it that the biggest reported covid deaths are in care homes? They are isolated from the outside world, don't receive visitors and care workers are tested regularly. So how are they getting it? Or as I suspect...they aren't, they are dieing from other causes.

The figures of covid in the UK are also wrong. Every positive test gets put down as two. One from nostril swab, the other from throat swab. The Government have admitted this. So you can half the positive rates straight away.

Also...as an example...if you get tested positive say back in January, and get knocked down and killed by a bus tomorrow, your death certificate will show it as covid. That's been admitted too.

If it's so contagious...how has my friend's wife tested positive for covid, and was really ill, with extreme flu like symptoms, she has underlying health issues, yet her husband who lives with her, has been tested twice, both times negative...how does that work?

People with serious health issues, like cancer, are being shunned and put on the back burner so to speak, because of 'mismanagment' and an agenda.

More people will die because of the restrictions in place and the consequences, rather than covid.

It's ridiculous how people are just going along with government guidelines without thinking for themselves or researching.

The one thing that is frightening, is how easy it is to manipulate populations into doing things without question. Staggering.

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13 minutes ago, spudski said:

I really can't believe how many people believe figures being banded about by the Government.

Before Covid...the majority of people believed politicians etc were in it for their own personal gain, were liars, and had agendas, and gave out stats that suited those agendas.

Covid comes along, and all of a sudden people believe everything they are being told by the Government. 🙈🤔🤣

Or people are looking at the information given and drawing a similar conclusion. I see lots of criticism of the government, not people believing everything at all.

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

Look how Sweden has worked, compared to us. They haven't locked down...they just isolated the vulnerable.

Using Sweeden as an example just shows you don't really understand the situation. There has been a lot of discussion and good articles written about it. Firstly it did lock down in places, it wasn't completely open. It's a very different country to the UK. Try comparing them to their neighbours. Hint: Sweeden had 57 deaths per 100k, compared to 5 in Norway and 11 in Denmark.

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

Scientists across the globe have said it's here forever. We will all eventually get it. So if that's the case, how can you proceed like we are forever? You can't...it's impossible.

Nobody I can see has suggested we proceed like this forever. But we can delay until we're better prepared or have increased understanding of how to tackle it.

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

Vaccines aren't the answer...we have flu vaccines...we still catch the flu. 🙄

And yet the flu vaccine is still given, updated each year, and very popular and successful. What's your point?

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

If isolation is the answer...why is it that the biggest reported covid deaths are in care homes? They are isolated from the outside world, don't receive visitors and care workers are tested regularly. So how are they getting it? Or as I suspect...they aren't, they are dieing from other causes.

Because people in care homes are older and have more underlying comorbidity features.

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

The figures of covid in the UK are also wrong. Every positive test gets put down as two. One from nostril swab, the other from throat swab. The Government have admitted this. So you can half the positive rates straight away.

Some have but ONLY if the test was done in both ways. They think it led to about a 20% increase back in May. Not double.

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

Also...as an example...if you get tested positive say back in January, and get knocked down and killed by a bus tomorrow, your death certificate will show it as covid. That's been admitted too.

Yep. That's why people now look at excess deaths (i.e. how many more deaths compared to previous years) to work it out.

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

If it's so contagious...how has my friend's wife tested positive for covid, and was really ill, with extreme flu like symptoms, she has underlying health issues, yet her husband who lives with her, has been tested twice, both times negative...how does that work?

And people with a 99% deadly cancer still survive. It happens. It means nothing.

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

People with serious health issues, like cancer, are being shunned and put on the back burner so to speak, because of 'mismanagment' and an agenda.

I agree, on the mismanagement point at least.

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

It's ridiculous how people are just going along with government guidelines without thinking for themselves or researching.

Well if the alternative is the type of research you did to write the above thank god for that ;) 

The point is that it's an incredibly complex subject, so looking at a few facebook posts from "free thinkers" and reading the odd article then drawing your own conclusion and doing your own thing is not a sustainable strategy to tackle a problem of this magnitude.

Perhaps it seems less bad because we DID lock down and have taken huge measures? It's all very well saying it wasn't that bad after we take drastic measures isn't it.

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Thanks @spudski - you tell Joe he can’t resume something like normality like all his mates 😡😡😡

And then his sister can’t go to school because she has to isolate because of him

And I can’t get a job, because we have to look after Joe and Zara, because they need looking after at home.

Isolating the vulnerable is not the answer.

Sweden did lock down their secondary school, they worked online.  They invest in their children’s education.

 

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22 minutes ago, spudski said:

I really can't believe how many people believe figures being banded about by the Government.

Before Covid...the majority of people believed politicians etc were in it for their own personal gain, were liars, and had agendas, and gave out stats that suited those agendas.

Covid comes along, and all of a sudden people believe everything they are being told by the Government. 🙈🤔🤣

It's nuts. It's a world pandemic, that's being addressed differently from country to country. Each doing something differently...like covid acts differently in each country 😩🙈🙄🤣

Look how Sweden has worked, compared to us. They haven't locked down...they just isolated the vulnerable.

Scientists across the globe have said it's here forever. We will all eventually get it. So if that's the case, how can you proceed like we are forever? You can't...it's impossible.

Isolate the vulnerable...carry on as normal but with self distancing. We have to build Immunity.

Vaccines aren't the answer...we have flu vaccines...we still catch the flu. 🙄

If isolation is the answer...why is it that the biggest reported covid deaths are in care homes? They are isolated from the outside world, don't receive visitors and care workers are tested regularly. So how are they getting it? Or as I suspect...they aren't, they are dieing from other causes.

The figures of covid in the UK are also wrong. Every positive test gets put down as two. One from nostril swab, the other from throat swab. The Government have admitted this. So you can half the positive rates straight away.

Also...as an example...if you get tested positive say back in January, and get knocked down and killed by a bus tomorrow, your death certificate will show it as covid. That's been admitted too.

If it's so contagious...how has my friend's wife tested positive for covid, and was really ill, with extreme flu like symptoms, she has underlying health issues, yet her husband who lives with her, has been tested twice, both times negative...how does that work?

People with serious health issues, like cancer, are being shunned and put on the back burner so to speak, because of 'mismanagment' and an agenda.

More people will die because of the restrictions in place and the consequences, rather than covid.

It's ridiculous how people are just going along with government guidelines without thinking for themselves or researching.

The one thing that is frightening, is how easy it is to manipulate populations into doing things without question. Staggering.

tenor.gif?itemid=9987042

 

There’s so much wrong with this I don’t know where to start. Is this what an anti vaxxer looks like? 

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34 minutes ago, spudski said:

I really can't believe how many people believe figures being banded about by the Government.

Before Covid...the majority of people believed politicians etc were in it for their own personal gain, were liars, and had agendas, and gave out stats that suited those agendas.

Covid comes along, and all of a sudden people believe everything they are being told by the Government. 🙈🤔🤣

It's nuts. It's a world pandemic, that's being addressed differently from country to country. Each doing something differently...like covid acts differently in each country 😩🙈🙄🤣

Look how Sweden has worked, compared to us. They haven't locked down...they just isolated the vulnerable.

Scientists across the globe have said it's here forever. We will all eventually get it. So if that's the case, how can you proceed like we are forever? You can't...it's impossible.

Isolate the vulnerable...carry on as normal but with self distancing. We have to build Immunity.

Vaccines aren't the answer...we have flu vaccines...we still catch the flu. 🙄

If isolation is the answer...why is it that the biggest reported covid deaths are in care homes? They are isolated from the outside world, don't receive visitors and care workers are tested regularly. So how are they getting it? Or as I suspect...they aren't, they are dieing from other causes.

The figures of covid in the UK are also wrong. Every positive test gets put down as two. One from nostril swab, the other from throat swab. The Government have admitted this. So you can half the positive rates straight away.

Also...as an example...if you get tested positive say back in January, and get knocked down and killed by a bus tomorrow, your death certificate will show it as covid. That's been admitted too.

If it's so contagious...how has my friend's wife tested positive for covid, and was really ill, with extreme flu like symptoms, she has underlying health issues, yet her husband who lives with her, has been tested twice, both times negative...how does that work?

People with serious health issues, like cancer, are being shunned and put on the back burner so to speak, because of 'mismanagment' and an agenda.

More people will die because of the restrictions in place and the consequences, rather than covid.

It's ridiculous how people are just going along with government guidelines without thinking for themselves or researching.

The one thing that is frightening, is how easy it is to manipulate populations into doing things without question. Staggering.

never heard some h bollocks since boris last spoke. you must be a politician to spout such shit!

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36 minutes ago, spudski said:

I really can't believe how many people believe figures being banded about by the Government.

Before Covid...the majority of people believed politicians etc were in it for their own personal gain, were liars, and had agendas, and gave out stats that suited those agendas.

Covid comes along, and all of a sudden people believe everything they are being told by the Government. 🙈🤔🤣

It's nuts. It's a world pandemic, that's being addressed differently from country to country. Each doing something differently...like covid acts differently in each country 😩🙈🙄🤣

Look how Sweden has worked, compared to us. They haven't locked down...they just isolated the vulnerable.

Scientists across the globe have said it's here forever. We will all eventually get it. So if that's the case, how can you proceed like we are forever? You can't...it's impossible.

Isolate the vulnerable...carry on as normal but with self distancing. We have to build Immunity.

Vaccines aren't the answer...we have flu vaccines...we still catch the flu. 🙄

If isolation is the answer...why is it that the biggest reported covid deaths are in care homes? They are isolated from the outside world, don't receive visitors and care workers are tested regularly. So how are they getting it? Or as I suspect...they aren't, they are dieing from other causes.

The figures of covid in the UK are also wrong. Every positive test gets put down as two. One from nostril swab, the other from throat swab. The Government have admitted this. So you can half the positive rates straight away.

Also...as an example...if you get tested positive say back in January, and get knocked down and killed by a bus tomorrow, your death certificate will show it as covid. That's been admitted too.

If it's so contagious...how has my friend's wife tested positive for covid, and was really ill, with extreme flu like symptoms, she has underlying health issues, yet her husband who lives with her, has been tested twice, both times negative...how does that work?

People with serious health issues, like cancer, are being shunned and put on the back burner so to speak, because of 'mismanagment' and an agenda.

More people will die because of the restrictions in place and the consequences, rather than covid.

It's ridiculous how people are just going along with government guidelines without thinking for themselves or researching.

The one thing that is frightening, is how easy it is to manipulate populations into doing things without question. Staggering.

Ha, what a load of tripe

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36 minutes ago, spudski said:

I really can't believe how many people believe figures being banded about by the Government.

Before Covid...the majority of people believed politicians etc were in it for their own personal gain, were liars, and had agendas, and gave out stats that suited those agendas.

Covid comes along, and all of a sudden people believe everything they are being told by the Government. 🙈🤔🤣

It's nuts. It's a world pandemic, that's being addressed differently from country to country. Each doing something differently...like covid acts differently in each country 😩🙈🙄🤣

Look how Sweden has worked, compared to us. They haven't locked down...they just isolated the vulnerable.

Scientists across the globe have said it's here forever. We will all eventually get it. So if that's the case, how can you proceed like we are forever? You can't...it's impossible.

Isolate the vulnerable...carry on as normal but with self distancing. We have to build Immunity.

Vaccines aren't the answer...we have flu vaccines...we still catch the flu. 🙄

If isolation is the answer...why is it that the biggest reported covid deaths are in care homes? They are isolated from the outside world, don't receive visitors and care workers are tested regularly. So how are they getting it? Or as I suspect...they aren't, they are dieing from other causes.

The figures of covid in the UK are also wrong. Every positive test gets put down as two. One from nostril swab, the other from throat swab. The Government have admitted this. So you can half the positive rates straight away.

Also...as an example...if you get tested positive say back in January, and get knocked down and killed by a bus tomorrow, your death certificate will show it as covid. That's been admitted too.

If it's so contagious...how has my friend's wife tested positive for covid, and was really ill, with extreme flu like symptoms, she has underlying health issues, yet her husband who lives with her, has been tested twice, both times negative...how does that work?

People with serious health issues, like cancer, are being shunned and put on the back burner so to speak, because of 'mismanagment' and an agenda.

More people will die because of the restrictions in place and the consequences, rather than covid.

It's ridiculous how people are just going along with government guidelines without thinking for themselves or researching.

The one thing that is frightening, is how easy it is to manipulate populations into doing things without question. Staggering.

What I can't understand is if all of this were to be true and their is some worldwide conspiracy whereby governments throughout the globe are lying to their populations who stands to benefit from the situation?

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23 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

Or people are looking at the information given and drawing a similar conclusion. I see lots of criticism of the government, not people believing everything at all.

Using Sweeden as an example just shows you don't really understand the situation. There has been a lot of discussion and good articles written about it. Firstly it did lock down in places, it wasn't completely open. It's a very different country to the UK. Try comparing them to their neighbours. Hint: Sweeden had 57 deaths per 100k, compared to 5 in Norway and 11 in Denmark.

Nobody I can see has suggested we proceed like this forever. But we can delay until we're better prepared or have increased understanding of how to tackle it.

And yet the flu vaccine is still given, updated each year, and very popular and successful. What's your point?

Because people in care homes are older and have more underlying comorbidity features.

Some have but ONLY if the test was done in both ways. They think it led to about a 20% increase back in May. Not double.

Yep. That's why people now look at excess deaths (i.e. how many more deaths compared to previous years) to work it out.

And people with a 99% deadly cancer still survive. It happens. It means nothing.

I agree, on the mismanagement point at least.

Well if the alternative is the type of research you did to write the above thank god for that ;) 

The point is that it's an incredibly complex subject, so looking at a few facebook posts from "free thinkers" and reading the odd article then drawing your own conclusion and doing your own thing is not a sustainable strategy to tackle a problem of this magnitude.

Perhaps it seems less bad because we DID lock down and have taken huge measures? It's all very well saying it wasn't that bad after we take drastic measures isn't it.

Dominic Raab said on Sky news yesterday that 7% of positive tests only show covid 19...the other 93% show other Corona like viruses, including the common cold.

Our figures are completely wrong...and the Government are acting on incorrect figures.

24 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Thanks @spudski - you tell Joe he can’t resume something like normality like all his mates 😡😡😡

And then his sister can’t go to school because she has to isolate because of him

And I can’t get a job, because we have to look after Joe and Zara, because they need looking after at home.

Isolating the vulnerable is not the answer.

Sweden did lock down their secondary school, they worked online.  They invest in their children’s education.

 

Dave....since January I've had to isolate and bubble my mother and father.

My mother has bowel cancer and is likely to die because of the operations being put back and cancelled all the time.

They went to operate last Friday, but stopped because it had grown so big and gone deeper. If the operation had gone ahead as scheduled she would have been given a fighting chance.

Speaking to her surgical team, off the record, they implied more people will die due to restrictions being put in place than not.

A family member works frontline at a Bristol hospital...they inform me of what's happening. They see everyday. Many departments are empty, when they should be full of people with other life threatening illnesses. They will die because the Government are reacting to incorrect information they are gathering.

I'll lose my mother due to the incompetence 😠😠😠

 

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49 minutes ago, spudski said:

I really can't believe how many people believe figures being banded about by the Government.

Before Covid...the majority of people believed politicians etc were in it for their own personal gain, were liars, and had agendas, and gave out stats that suited those agendas.

Covid comes along, and all of a sudden people believe everything they are being told by the Government. 🙈🤔🤣

It's nuts. It's a world pandemic, that's being addressed differently from country to country. Each doing something differently...like covid acts differently in each country 😩🙈🙄🤣

Look how Sweden has worked, compared to us. They haven't locked down...they just isolated the vulnerable.

Scientists across the globe have said it's here forever. We will all eventually get it. So if that's the case, how can you proceed like we are forever? You can't...it's impossible.

Isolate the vulnerable...carry on as normal but with self distancing. We have to build Immunity.

Vaccines aren't the answer...we have flu vaccines...we still catch the flu. 🙄

If isolation is the answer...why is it that the biggest reported covid deaths are in care homes? They are isolated from the outside world, don't receive visitors and care workers are tested regularly. So how are they getting it? Or as I suspect...they aren't, they are dieing from other causes.

The figures of covid in the UK are also wrong. Every positive test gets put down as two. One from nostril swab, the other from throat swab. The Government have admitted this. So you can half the positive rates straight away.

Also...as an example...if you get tested positive say back in January, and get knocked down and killed by a bus tomorrow, your death certificate will show it as covid. That's been admitted too.

If it's so contagious...how has my friend's wife tested positive for covid, and was really ill, with extreme flu like symptoms, she has underlying health issues, yet her husband who lives with her, has been tested twice, both times negative...how does that work?

People with serious health issues, like cancer, are being shunned and put on the back burner so to speak, because of 'mismanagment' and an agenda.

More people will die because of the restrictions in place and the consequences, rather than covid.

It's ridiculous how people are just going along with government guidelines without thinking for themselves or researching.

The one thing that is frightening, is how easy it is to manipulate populations into doing things without question. Staggering.

Stick to footy mate.

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48 minutes ago, spudski said:

Dominic Raab said on Sky news yesterday that 7% of positive tests only show covid 19...the other 93% show other Corona like viruses, including the common cold.

Our figures are completely wrong...and the Government are acting on incorrect figures.

Dave....since January I've had to isolate and bubble my mother and father.

My mother has bowel cancer and is likely to die because of the operations being put back and cancelled all the time.

They went to operate last Friday, but stopped because it had grown so big and gone deeper. If the operation had gone ahead as scheduled she would have been given a fighting chance.

Speaking to her surgical team, off the record, they implied more people will die due to restrictions being put in place than not.

A family member works frontline at a Bristol hospital...they inform me of what's happening. They see everyday. Many departments are empty, when they should be full of people with other life threatening illnesses. They will die because the Government are reacting to incorrect information they are gathering.

I'll lose my mother due to the incompetence 😠😠😠

 

Feel for you mate....tough times ☹️☹️☹️
 

incompetence?  Most definitely!!!  I actually don’t think they are reacting to the data at all....they are just doing what suits their own selfish aims, their donors pockets, etc.

Johnson (Boris) repeated his “expect to lose some loved ones” last week.  He couldn’t give a flying %&ck about x thousand deaths.

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52 minutes ago, spudski said:

Dominic Raab said on Sky news yesterday that 7% of positive tests only show covid 19...the other 93% show other Corona like viruses, including the common cold.

Our figures are completely wrong...and the Government are acting on incorrect figures.

No he didn't, I just don't think you fully understand what he was talking about. The actual false positive rate for the tests we use is widely believed to be well under 1%.

The misunderstanding is that Raab was talking about testing everyone at an airport which is an important statistical difference to people booking a test. Consider this:

Let's say the FPR (false positive rate) is 5%, and 1000 people get tested. In an airport, only one person per thousand there has COVID. So we get 1 real positive test, and 50 false positive ones (due to the 5% false positive rate). So 98% of tests are incorrect and only 2% are correct - Wow!

However, at a testing centre your chance of having COVID is much higher - that's why you're there to get a test after all. Let's say 1000 people are getting tests, but 500 per thousand of them have COVID (over estimated of course, just like the airport was under estimated). We get 500 real positive tests, and 25 false positive ones (5% of the remaining 500). Now the same test with the same FPR has only 5% incorrect and 95% correct. This is the number Raab was talking about with his 7%, specifically in the context of airports where you will be testing a lot of people most of which don't have the virus.

So you can see that testing a LOT of people somewhere where hardly anyone will have COVID means that even a small FPR can make it appear that the tests aren't working properly. Even a tiny FPR (of say 0.05%, one number I've seen) in a million people is 500 positives. At an airport where it's pretty rare that will of course likely be higher than the actual positive rate, leading to misunderstandings like the above.

Hopefully I explained that properly, some others here know a lot more than me about this so I may have made a mistake somewhere. Apologies if so.

Think about this:

The amount of tests done each day is known. The false positive rate is static. So why are positive test rates increasing as a percentage of tests done? If this was due to a huge false positive rate, surely then it would move in tandem quite closely with the number of tests done?

 

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4 hours ago, spudski said:

I really can't believe how many people believe figures being banded about by the Government.

Before Covid...the majority of people believed politicians etc were in it for their own personal gain, were liars, and had agendas, and gave out stats that suited those agendas.

Covid comes along, and all of a sudden people believe everything they are being told by the Government. 🙈🤔🤣

It's nuts. It's a world pandemic, that's being addressed differently from country to country. Each doing something differently...like covid acts differently in each country 😩🙈🙄🤣

Look how Sweden has worked, compared to us. They haven't locked down...they just isolated the vulnerable.

Scientists across the globe have said it's here forever. We will all eventually get it. So if that's the case, how can you proceed like we are forever? You can't...it's impossible.

Isolate the vulnerable...carry on as normal but with self distancing. We have to build Immunity.

Vaccines aren't the answer...we have flu vaccines...we still catch the flu. 🙄

If isolation is the answer...why is it that the biggest reported covid deaths are in care homes? They are isolated from the outside world, don't receive visitors and care workers are tested regularly. So how are they getting it? Or as I suspect...they aren't, they are dieing from other causes.

The figures of covid in the UK are also wrong. Every positive test gets put down as two. One from nostril swab, the other from throat swab. The Government have admitted this. So you can half the positive rates straight away.

Also...as an example...if you get tested positive say back in January, and get knocked down and killed by a bus tomorrow, your death certificate will show it as covid. That's been admitted too.

If it's so contagious...how has my friend's wife tested positive for covid, and was really ill, with extreme flu like symptoms, she has underlying health issues, yet her husband who lives with her, has been tested twice, both times negative...how does that work?

People with serious health issues, like cancer, are being shunned and put on the back burner so to speak, because of 'mismanagment' and an agenda.

More people will die because of the restrictions in place and the consequences, rather than covid.

It's ridiculous how people are just going along with government guidelines without thinking for themselves or researching.

The one thing that is frightening, is how easy it is to manipulate populations into doing things without question. Staggering.

Point 1. Look up what Sweden actually did. Firstly at one point they had the highest deaths per capita in Europe. Also, they closed high schools and unis, businesses at reduced hours, restaurants reduced capacity. Social distancing was in place and people were told not to make non-essential travel and work from home. Gatherings over 50 banned and over 70s stayed home. Stockholm had upto 90% less pedastrian traffic at the peak of the pandemic. Shops were empty, people stopped visiting friends. So whilst they may not have had an official lockdown they certainly had measures in place that sound quite familiar?

Point 2. I dont think this is true. It was a statistical counting issue where PHE compared a database of covid positive people and whether they were still alive. This had nothing to do with death certificates.

Point 3. No one was getting tested regularly at the start of the pandemic. People were coming home from hospital with the virus and spreading it round the homes.

Point 4. I love this line. Did you think for yourself or just repeat someone elses crap? It's just more "woke" if you get your info from a dodgy youtube video rather than say the ONS

edit: I since saw your post about your mum, and I empathise I really do, I've lost 3 family members during this. The one thing we can all agree on is this had been handled so awfully but people spreading mis-information so wilfully is part of the problem. It's also part of the reason these people have the majority of power that they do from the last election

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4 hours ago, spudski said:

Dominic Raab said on Sky news yesterday that 7% of positive tests only show covid 19...the other 93% show other Corona like viruses, including the common cold.

Our figures are completely wrong...and the Government are acting on incorrect figures.

Dave....since January I've had to isolate and bubble my mother and father.

My mother has bowel cancer and is likely to die because of the operations being put back and cancelled all the time.

They went to operate last Friday, but stopped because it had grown so big and gone deeper. If the operation had gone ahead as scheduled she would have been given a fighting chance.

Speaking to her surgical team, off the record, they implied more people will die due to restrictions being put in place than not.

A family member works frontline at a Bristol hospital...they inform me of what's happening. They see everyday. Many departments are empty, when they should be full of people with other life threatening illnesses. They will die because the Government are reacting to incorrect information they are gathering.

I'll lose my mother due to the incompetence 😠😠😠

 

Sorry to hear about your mother's situation Spudski. I hope she can get the care she needs ASAP 

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4 hours ago, spudski said:

 

Speaking to her surgical team, off the record, they implied more people will die due to restrictions being put in place than not.

A family member works frontline at a Bristol hospital...they inform me of what's happening. They see everyday. Many departments are empty, when they should be full of people with other life threatening illnesses. They will die because the Government are reacting to incorrect information they are gathering.

 

 

Not sure what my personal take on it is - as mentioned by others, its a highly complex issue - but I will vouch that I have a few doctor friends who are saying the same thing and that it is quite a common opinion within the profession apparently.

I'm sure its probably a divisive topic between healthcare professionals and many dont think that way, but there is definitely concern that more people are being harmed by lockdown/restrictions than being saved. 

 

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18 hours ago, Midlands Robin said:

Another highly enjoyable episode. My only fear is that Dean Holden's visit to the Three Lions could be an attempt to displace Harry Food on the Pod as resident food and beverage reviewer.

We want Harry back. The campaign starts here.

Maybe Harry & Dean could join forces to present a Food & Drink segment ?

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23 hours ago, Red Alert said:

Bit unnecessary & poisonous mate, why don’t you put yourself forward and give up some of your precious time & offer to appear on the Podcast?

I’m sure we’d all be curious to hear your debating style.

No thanks ‘mate’. I don’t think I’m enough of a social media influencer blogger super fan voice of the fans to pull off the slot these two guys normally fill. I’ll just avoid the episodes they’re on and listen happily to the ones they’re not. Big fan of the other OSIButers and the pod in general and I think I’m allowed to have my own tastes and opinions without being called poisonous or have sarcastic remarks thrown my way. All a bit unnecessary. 

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On 29/09/2020 at 00:04, RiverRed said:

**** me, this thread escalated quickly.

Yeah, **** you!! 

Blimey, even I'm getting swept along with it all!!

Keep me coming boys.  Will have a listen during the next few days.  👍☺️

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On 29/09/2020 at 15:42, IAmNick said:

  

No he didn't, I just don't think you fully understand what he was talking about. The actual false positive rate for the tests we use is widely believed to be well under 1%.

The misunderstanding is that Raab was talking about testing everyone at an airport which is an important statistical difference to people booking a test. Consider this:

Let's say the FPR (false positive rate) is 5%, and 1000 people get tested. In an airport, only one person per thousand there has COVID. So we get 1 real positive test, and 50 false positive ones (due to the 5% false positive rate). So 98% of tests are incorrect and only 2% are correct - Wow!

However, at a testing centre your chance of having COVID is much higher - that's why you're there to get a test after all. Let's say 1000 people are getting tests, but 500 per thousand of them have COVID (over estimated of course, just like the airport was under estimated). We get 500 real positive tests, and 25 false positive ones (5% of the remaining 500). Now the same test with the same FPR has only 5% incorrect and 95% correct. This is the number Raab was talking about with his 7%, specifically in the context of airports where you will be testing a lot of people most of which don't have the virus.

So you can see that testing a LOT of people somewhere where hardly anyone will have COVID means that even a small FPR can make it appear that the tests aren't working properly. Even a tiny FPR (of say 0.05%, one number I've seen) in a million people is 500 positives. At an airport where it's pretty rare that will of course likely be higher than the actual positive rate, leading to misunderstandings like the above.

Hopefully I explained that properly, some others here know a lot more than me about this so I may have made a mistake somewhere. Apologies if so.

Think about this:

The amount of tests done each day is known. The false positive rate is static. So why are positive test rates increasing as a percentage of tests done? If this was due to a huge false positive rate, surely then it would move in tandem quite closely with the number of tests done?

 

 

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1 hour ago, spudski said:

 

Ok. In a totally NOT surprising demonstration of total irony it turns out you "thinking for yourself and researching" is watching a few youtube videos. In fact you can't even type in your response, I presume because you don't understand it.

First lets see who this bloke is from his "About me" section:

Quote

Britain's ruling elites manifestly refuse to discuss the most important issues of our time, namely mass immigration from the Third World, the steady rise of fundamentalist Islam and the hijacking of traditional British culture and institutions by well-organised left-wing 'progressives'.

Ooooook... not off to the best start. I thought I remembered his name, he's the bloke who was arrested a few years ago for shouting anti-Islam stuff with a megaphone in front of a city hall right>

But lets not discount him on that, that'd be unfair. Clearly he is a balanced and learned man if he is your source of "research" and "thinking for yourself. Double irony though: He's a politician mate. Maybe you just believe the ones you like? I dunno.

Anyway I watched the video. This bloke is either stupid, or intentionally lying and misleading you. I reckon it's a bit of both. He is WRONG.  I don't know how to make it any clearer than that. He is lying.

It should be an immediate red flag he thinks the FPR reduces the cases from 90-100%. 100%? For real? What were the 3,000 admissions PER DAY meant to be then? You don't go to hospital and end up on a ventilator with a false positive diagnosis.

Amusingly he even shows he hasn't read the white paper he links. He says the 2.3% rate in the paper is the "mean average". It's not, it specifically says it's the median and you wouldn't use a "mean average" in that situation. And it also was 43 OTHER tests, not the COVID one. His false positive rate is higher than all the positives we have... what? So he's saying we should have MORE positives than we do. Let's even take a DIRECT quote from HIS OWN bloody source:

Quote

The majority of people tested on that day did not have SARS-CoV-2 (98.4% of tests are negative). When only a small proportion of people being tested have the virus, the operational false positive rate becomes very important. Clearly the false positive rate cannot exceed 1.6% on that day, and is likely to be much lower.

But he went for his "mean average" 2.3% anyway.

Just think about this:

Between April and August the amount of tests done increased by perhaps 600-700% from 30k to around 180-200k. If apparently most positives were actually due a 90-100% false positive rate then SURELY the number of cases per day also increased by 600-700% right? Is that what happened? Are we now seeing 6-7 times the number of positives as we did back in April? Has the positive rate gradually increased pretty well in line with the numbers of tests done over this last 6 months? No?

So what's going on there exactly? How were we doing 7 times MORE tests and getting maybe 10-20% of the cases?

And once again, he also doesn't understand how to apply a FPR. He is lying to you.

If you want to continue "doing your research" and "thinking for yourself" I recommend not using youtube videos as your main source, and if you do want to watch them (there are some great ones) I suggest you apply your own words to them - think about it. Absolutely bonkers.

Stick to the footie mate.

 

 

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1 hour ago, spudski said:

 

Spud - I really don’t know what conclusion you are drawing from the Paul Weston video.  Weston is in effect saying the 420k positive cases is made up of 460k false positives, e.g. there are no true positive cases.

If he’s trying to discredit the government data, it’s a bizarre way of doing it, but making himself look a complete tool in the process...therefore discrediting his own criticism of the numbers in a vicious circle.

I didn’t bother watching the Desmond Swaine video, before he is just a complete cock....so based on watching the video of Paul Weston as your case study, I didn’t really feel I’d gain anything by watching Swiss Tony.

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20 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

Ok. In a totally NOT surprising demonstration of total irony it turns out you "thinking for yourself and researching" is watching a few youtube videos. In fact you can't even type in your response, I presume because you don't understand it.

First lets see who this bloke is from his "About me" section:

Ooooook... not off to the best start. I thought I remembered his name, he's the bloke who was arrested a few years ago for shouting anti-Islam stuff with a megaphone in front of a city hall right>

But lets not discount him on that, that'd be unfair. Clearly he is a balanced and learned man if he is your source of "research" and "thinking for yourself. Double irony though: He's a politician mate. Maybe you just believe the ones you like? I dunno.

Anyway I watched the video. This bloke is either stupid, or intentionally lying and misleading you. I reckon it's a bit of both. He is WRONG.  I don't know how to make it any clearer than that. He is lying.

It should be an immediate red flag he thinks the FPR reduces the cases from 90-100%. 100%? For real? What were the 3,000 admissions PER DAY meant to be then? You don't go to hospital and end up on a ventilator with a false positive diagnosis.

Amusingly he even shows he hasn't read the white paper he links. He says the 2.3% rate in the paper is the "mean average". It's not, it specifically says it's the median and you wouldn't use a "mean average" in that situation. And it also was 43 OTHER tests, not the COVID one. His false positive rate is higher than all the positives we have... what? So he's saying we should have MORE positives than we do. Let's even take a DIRECT quote from HIS OWN bloody source:

But he went for his "mean average" 2.3% anyway.

Just think about this:

Between April and August the amount of tests done increased by perhaps 600-700% from 30k to around 180-200k. If apparently most positives were actually due a 90-100% false positive rate then SURELY the number of cases per day also increased by 600-700% right? Is that what happened? Are we now seeing 6-7 times the number of positives as we did back in April? Has the positive rate gradually increased pretty well in line with the numbers of tests done over this last 6 months? No?

So what's going on there exactly? How were we doing 7 times MORE tests and getting maybe 10-20% of the cases?

And once again, he also doesn't understand how to apply a FPR. He is lying to you.

If you want to continue "doing your research" and "thinking for yourself" I recommend not using youtube videos as your main source, and if you do want to watch them (there are some great ones) I suggest you apply your own words to them - think about it. Absolutely bonkers.

Stick to the footie mate.

 

 

We can agree to disagree. I use all forms of information to come to my own conclusions.

These were just plucked.

I have no political views on covid.

I distrust all politicians.

I distrust mainstream media owned by powerful people who decide what news we see, for their own agenda.

I distrust paid up scientists owned by the Government.

I look for information across all forms, from as many neutral 'experts' as possible...which is hard, because most have personal agendas.

If you actually believe shutting down the world like we have, has benefited mankind as a whole, long term, and the consequences we will have to try to live with afterwards, is a good thing, then thats your prerogative.

I distrust the figures being banded about and I can't see how putting in all the silly rules and regs we have in place, that contradict one another helps. We are sheep following regs that make no sense what's so ever. 

For what end?

This isn't going away...it's here forever. 

I've no political leanings...the two videos were put up just to show that others disagree with the government information, and that others in the same party are discrediting the science and figures of their own and starting to make noise about it.

 

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Spud - I really don’t know what conclusion you are drawing from the Paul Weston video.  Weston is in effect saying the 420k positive cases is made up of 460k false positives, e.g. there are no true positive cases.

If he’s trying to discredit the government data, it’s a bizarre way of doing it, but making himself look a complete tool in the process...therefore discrediting his own criticism of the numbers in a vicious circle.

I didn’t bother watching the Desmond Swaine video, before he is just a complete cock....so based on watching the video of Paul Weston as your case study, I didn’t really feel I’d gain anything by watching Swiss Tony.

Dave...the majority of Politicians are self indulgent cocks...see my explanation above 👍

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1 hour ago, spudski said:

 

My immediate reaction was this is nonsense, but I thought I'd do what ironically you actually said you do, and I would listen, research and come to my own conclusion because to be honest it wasn't something I understood immediately.

Firstly, and I assume this is common sense, false negative is actually likely to be pretty high for a few reasons. The virus is hard to detect in the early days so getting enough "virus" on the swab can be difficult in the first day or 2, plus human error. Also some places (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2015897) based on studies of people suggest the sensitivity of the test may only be 70% (ie only 70% of truly infected people actually test positive). ONS has it somewhere between 85-98%.

As for false positives, the specificity is 99.92% (about 1 in 1000 or less). Now with a bit of maths that's explained much better here https://medium.com/@gidmk/most-positive-coronavirus-tests-are-true-positives-60c95fe54fec you can see how they confirm the accuracy.

A valid point in that article is that if false positives were really that high, why is somewhere like New South Wales in Australia that tested 60k this week and 90k last week only getting 1 and 4 positive results respectively? Based on the video, that should be over 3000 false positives?

Basically I was right, that video is nonsense, and it's actually dangerous for people to keep peddling this crap. I'd rather believe scientists, medical journals and official sources over a right-wing racist with, as far as I can see, no qualifications on this subject?

I think @IAmNick covered the test situation quite well and the differences between testing 1000 people at an airport and 1000 people at a test site.

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1 minute ago, spudski said:

 

If you actually believe shutting down the world like we have, has benefited mankind as a whole, long term, and the consequences we will have to try to live with afterwards, is a good thing, then thats your prerogative.

 

No one thinks that this is for the betterment of the world. No one is benefiting from this situation. That’s the whole point, people are sacrificing to save the lives of those who will die if they catch COVID.
 

My wife’s job and my own are on the line and could well be lost, at the disruption of my son and my unborn child’s future, but of course I’ll go along with that, because the alternative is that my parents and thousands of other elderly and vulnerable people die.

As you’ve seen, other vulnerable people may die as a result of overreacting to COVID, which is incredibly sad, but it’s two evils and we won’t know which was the better evil until we come out the other side. 
 

 

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