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Swansea City (h) - 15:00 Sat 24th Oct - Matchday thread


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Swansea (H): 15:00 Sat 27th October – What Can We Expect?

Having received a punch on the nose versus Barnsley last weekend, City welcome Swansea to Ashton Gate on Saturday mindful that a Swan can break your arm!  With 13 points from 6 games and sat in 2nd place it seems strange to think that for some fans this match looks like it may provide a mark as to whether City’s start was a flash in the pan or not.  

Manager:

Swansea are managed by Steve Cooper, who is in his second season at the Liberty Stadium.  After a modest playing career that started at Wrexham and ended at Bangor City, the son of former league referee Keith Cooper gained his UEFA Pro badges by the age of 27.  He took coaching roles at Wrexham and Liverpool before taking over England age group teams, culminating in winning the u17 World Cup.

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Pic 1 - Cooper celebrates England u17 World Cup win!

Last season his Swansea team made a late run for the playoffs as Forest faltered, as he used his England contacts to bring in talented loanees like Rhian Brewster, Marc Guehi and Conor Gallagher.  They played an attractive brand of passing football before falling to Brentford 3-2 on aggregate in the semi-final.  Swansea expect to be right in the playoff mix again this season.

Season so far:

They have started pretty well.  After an early exit in the EFL Cup to Newport where they looked seriously undercooked, they won three of the next four before suffering their first defeat on Saturday at home to Huddersfield.  A draw at St Andrews versus Coventry on Tuesday leaves them in 6th place, 2 points behind City.

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Pic 2 - Championship table ahead of this weekend's fixtures [BBC Sport]

System / Formation:

Cooper played a 4231 system last season until post-Covid when he changed to a 3412 / 352.  The opportunity to make better use of the talented Andre Ayew alongside Rhian Brewster rather than drifting in off the right wing necessitated the change as they earned 10 points from their final 5 games to edge past Forest and into the playoffs.

Cooper has continued the 3412 this season, although he has the flexibility within the squad to alter that system in-game to suit the state of the match or opponents.

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Pic 3 - Swansea (right) starting eleven versus Coventry

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Pic 4 - Swansea tactical changes versus Coventry

Against Coventry in the week a half-time sub saw Cooper change from 3412 to 343 to stop Coventry playing out from the back.  Then with 25 minutes to go Cooper went to a solid middle three with the introduction of a conventional central midfielder.

Recruitment – Ins and Outs

It’s fair to say many pundits are suggesting Swansea “won” the transfer window with a series of excellent signings both early on and again on “Deadline Day”.  Cooper used his England contacts to secure highly rated youngsters from Premier League clubs on loan.

Incoming:

§  Jamal Lowe – £800k from Wigan

§  Korey Smith – free (out of contract at Bristol City)

§  Freddie Woodman – loan from Newcastle (second season with Swansea)

§  Morgan Gibbs-White – loan from Wolves

§  Marc Guehi – loan from Chelsea

§  Viktor Gyokeres – loan from Brighton

on Deadline Day:

§  Ryan Manning – £250k from QPR

§  Ryan Bennett – undisclosed from Wolves

§  Joel Latibeaudiere – undisclosed from Manchester City

§  Kasey Palmer – loan from Bristol City

The only negative is the injury to Gibbs-White which probably hastened the decision to bring Palmer in on loan.

Outgoing:

§  Bersant Celina – £2.7m to Dijon

§  Kristoffer Pederson – £400k to Fortuna Dusseldorf

§  Mike Van der Hoorn – free to Armenia Bielefeld

§  Erwin Mulder – free to Heerenveen

§  Joe Rodon – £10.9m to Spurs (on Deadline Day)

How do they play:

Swansea like to pass the ball.  They regularly make over 500 passes per game (average 434) and with 80% plus accuracy too.  City average 396 at 78%..  There are three main parts to that success:

1.     Side centre-backs that are comfortable on the ball.

Both side centre-backs, Ben Cabango and Marc Guehi are more than happy to receive the ball from keeper Freddie Woodman and can build attacks from there.  Both are 20 years of age, yet we consider Moore and Vyner, both 23 to be young for this position.

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Pic 5 - Woodman pass network versus Coventry [Wyscout]

Against Coventry, 18 of Woodman’s 21 interactions with his back three were to the side centre-backs, Cabango and Guehi, with little interaction with Ryan Bennett. 

Swansea’s only defeat came in the previous match to this versus Huddersfield where Cabango played as the middle centre-back and Woodman continued to distribute the ball to him rather than Kyle Naughton who’d come in at right centre-back.  This changed the angles they make with their midfielders and wingbacks whilst also meaning one extra pass and possibly making it easier for Huddersfield to get into defensive shape. (Credit: @swansanslytics on Twitter)

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Pic 6 - Woodman pass network versus Huddersfield [Wyscout]

Here we can see the difference in interactions with the middle centre-back Cabango (total 20) as opposed to Bennett (3 versus Coventry).  We can also see that Woodman had more interaction with right wing-back Connor Roberts than Kyle Naughton.  This unbalanced Swansea usual routes out from the back as they made only 354 passes.  We’ve seen ourselves that when Bentley can play quicker passes to Mawson and Vyner, City’s attacks are less likely to be stifled by a team who are disciplined in their defensive shape.

It would suggest whoever City play up-top on Saturday they would be better off closing Cabango and Guehi rather than the slightly less capable ball-player Bennett and make Swansea build more centrally.

2.     Matt Grimes – anything but grim

The former Exeter midfielder is the key to Swansea’s possession and build-up acting as a progressive pivot to their passing moves.  He tends to operate in the left half of the pitch and likes to get on the ball as much as possible (see pass map below).

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Pic 7 - Matt Grimes passing map versus Coventry [Wyscout]

He links well with Guehi and left wing-back Jake Bidwell in moving the ball up the pitch.

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Pic 8 - Bidwell passes infield to Grimes versus Coventry

In this sequence we see Grimes (8) come short to receive a pass from Bidwell.  He has Marc Guehi available if he needs to go backwards, but he is aware that his marker is 5 yards away so can take a touch.  Jamal Lowe (9) is coming short to offer himself for a pass.

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Pic 9 - Grimes passes to Lowe versus Coventry

As the passage of play continues, Grimes turns and passes to Lowe who flicks a pass onto Bidwell who’s not stopped his forward run.  He bombs down the wing to cross and although Coventry half-clear the balls falls to Lowe who shoots just over the bar.

The little passes around the corner to teammates in sync with Grimes remind me of Barry Bannan (Sheffield Wednesday) so City will need to decide whether to mark him tight or try to press the receiver of his passes.  Looks like the energy of Andi Weimann on the right side of City’s midfield three would be a good option.

3.     Flying wingbacks

I’ve already started to elude to Jake Bidwell’s importance in showing how he links with Grimes (above), but Swansea have a pair of wingbacks who love to bomb forward.  On the opposite wing Swansea have Connor Roberts.  He scored the goal at the Liberty to inflict Dean Holden’s only defeat of his caretaker spell last season.  Both are ideal for the wingback role, possess high energy, good technically on the ball, whilst being able to defend.  Roberts is starting to build a relationship with City old-boy Korey Smith, who appears to be playing more of a box-to-box role under Cooper and perhaps more reminiscent of his first two seasons at Ashton Gate.

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Pic 10 - Jake Bidwell season heatmap [Wyscout]

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Pic 11 - Connor Roberts season heatmap [Wyscout]

With both clubs playing three games in a week there will be temptation for both head-coaches to freshen up these high intensity positions.  Swansea could bring in new signing Ryan Manning on the left and Kyle Naughton on the right.

My final observation of Swansea goes back to their 2-0 win against Wycombe.  They absolutely carved Wycombe open at will and created a whole host of chances but only scored twice.  For fans of XG (Expected Goals) stats, they are under-performing this season.

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Pic 12 - Championship top 7 Expected Goals (XG) [Wyscout]

We can see that Brentford and Swansea are at the top of the XG pile, but Swansea have scored 3 goals fewer.  Likewise, Norwich and Forest have scored less than you’d expect them to have from their chances created.  Whereas City, Blackburn and Huddersfield are outperforming their XG.  Is there a tendency for Swansea to want to score the perfect goal?  Let’s hope they don’t change this trend against City!

The Players:

Possible line-up

GK: Freddie Woodman (23) – England age group keeper on loan from Newcastle and remembered for winning the u20 World Cup for England.  Good with his feet, and of course well known to City’s coaches Simpson and Downing.

RWB: Connor Roberts (25) – Welsh international who’s played on loan in the West Country for our north of the river neighbours and Yeovil.  Very exciting modern day fullback who is very capable on the ball, a good engine, and solid defensively.  A key player in their build up from the back down the right channel.

LWB: Jake Bidwell (27) – ex-Everton, Brentford and QPR LB signed on a free last summer.  A lot of fans were worried about his passing pedigree having come from a direct-QPR team, but I remember him being very suited to Swansea’s Style from his Brentford days.  Had Dasilva not signed for City, he was someone high on my list along with Antonee Robinson.  Good player and likes a tackle too!  If Cooper decides to freshen up, then Ryan Manning (24) – the recent signing from QPR could come in.  Had a loan spell at Rotherham and can play in midfield too.

RCB: Ben Cabango (20) – young ball-playing centre-back who recently made his full Welsh international debut. Got a bit of pace too.

CB: Ryan Bennett (30) – astute signing by Cooper in a young Swansea team.  Formerly at Norwich and Peterborough before achieving promotion with Wolves in 2017/18.  Scored the injury time winner at Ashton Gate which many City fans felt turned our season.

LCB: Marc Guehi (20) – young defender back on loan from Chelsea for his second season.  Reminds me of being in the mould of Tomori (Derby loanee last season).  Has played all 6 games so far this season having missed the Carabao Cup game on England age group duty.  Member of Cooper’s U17 World Cup winning squad scoring in the final whilst earning caps under Downing and Simpson.

CM: Matt Grimes (25) – ex-Exeter man, and one scouted heavily by City in the past, but got away.  Neat and tidy midfielder who comes deep to join the CBs and start the play.  Key player that gets them playing.

CM: Korey Smith (29) – needs no introduction as one of City fans’ favourite players over 7 years at the club.  Looks to have settled in really quickly and I’m sure he will become a fans favourite at Swansea too.  I don’t expect Cooper to change Smith or Grimes but waiting in the swings are Jay Fulton (26) – former Scottish u21 midfielder who joined from Falkirk 6 seasons ago.  Nice left foot and will hurt us if we give him time on the ball.  Alternatively, Yan Dhanda (20) – a free transfer from Liverpool in the summer of 2018.

CAM – Viktor Gyokeres (22) – on loan from Brighton and benefitting from an injury to Morgan Gibbs-White (20) – on loan from Wolves who’d made an exciting start to his Swans loan spell.  Kasey Palmer (23) – also needs no introduction spending at least 3 months on loan at Swansea from ourselves.  He is ineligible for this game.

CF: Andre Ayew (30) – Ghanaian international, and a very good player at this level.  Good back-catalog of clubs - Lorient, Marseilles, West Ham, and strong runner with the ball.  Likes to come inside off the wings, and also dart in behind, prompting the more central role Cooper has given him.  One of those players where everything is done at pace...and one we don’t want to let run on the blindside. Likes to make a meal of every challenge made on him though! My DANGERMAN.

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Pic 13 - Andre Ayew in action in last season’s Playoff semi-final versus Brentford

CF: Jamal Lowe (26) – signed from Wigan in the summer having plied the non-league circuit before starring at Portsmouth.  Can play from the left, but his pace is being used centrally by Cooper.

So How Do We Win:

1.     Freshen it up:

On Tuesday night against Boro a few City players looked like a third game in 7 days might be too much, so I expect Dean Holden to make changes.  There are a few candidates for a rest, but Swansea might be the right game to bring Jay Dasilva and Steven Sessegnon back in at wingback.  Jay will bring better passing options from the back whilst “Sess” will bring pace to counter Bidwell’s constant runs forward, as well as his own energy to go past Bidwell the other way.

There are other possibilities in midfield and up-front, but I’m sure Holden won’t be making changes for changes sake.  City’s back three is going to have to get by with Moore and Vyner alongside the experienced Kalas if Mawson’s injury is as bad as feared.

2.     Tempo:

If City allow Swansea to get into defensive shape it is going to be difficult to break them down, although that’s no different for almost every team in the Championship.  Tempo is key, more so for City.  In every game this season where we’ve moved the ball quickly and crisply, we’ve created chances or at least opportunities to create chances. Below I’ve spotted four ways in which City can open up Swansea.

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Pic 14 - Swansea unable to press in a structured way with Coventry in transition

Transition: In the example above, the Coventry keeper (Marosi) throws the ball quickly to Giles.  Swansea get caught with two players (Roberts and Gyokeres) pressing him, and Giles easily passes inside to Shipley who builds an attack down Swansea’s left in the space where Roberts has over-committed.

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Pic 15 - Swansea caught b y a simple pass between two players

Passing Lanes: a simple example of Ayew (10) not doing anything of note to stop a pass from the Coventry centre-back to the elusive O’Hare (11).  Korey Smith is not marking anyone either.  Maybe he’s not “here, there and everywhere” as the lyrics of the Gerry Gow song would have us believe!

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Pic 16 - Swansea not shifting across the pitch

Shifting across the pitch: In the above passage of play, Coventry quickly pass inside from their left sided centre-back to the middle centre-back, who chips a ball over Ayew (left of picture who is stopping the pass to the right centre-back) to the right wingback to move onto.  Swansea’s central midfielders (red circles) are really slow to shuffle across and Grimes and Bidwell both get attracted to the ball, leaving space for the Coventry attacker to run into the space behind.  All it took was two quick passes to create acres of space for the Coventry wingback to advance into.

In all three examples, Coventry moved the ball quickly and Swansea left gaps as a result.

Speed of thought: Finally, Swansea were caught out by Huddersfield with a short corner last weekend.

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Pic 17 - Swansea get caught 2-on-1 from a corner

Although City look more of a threat from their own set-pieces into the box this season, we see above how easily Huddersfield exposed Swansea from a short corner.  Only one Swansea player went out to defend the quickly taken corner and Huddersfield easily worked the advantage.  The pass led to a shot and with the aid of a deflection Toffolo scored for the Terriers.

Prediction:

Both sides two games without a win.  Both sides in the top 6.  I see both sides sharing the points.

Bristol City 1:1 Swansea City

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They're one of my top 5 teams, ( with Watford, Bournemouth, Brentford, Norwich) and the first big test of the season for me in terms of, I think they're better than us.

Someone has to step up and fill that LCB role.

We have to help Bakinson in midfield more.

We can't be creating 0 chances.

We haven't really played well since Sheff Weds IMO, and we need to arrest the slide before comparisons to LJ's inability to do so come up. Losing two games within a week at home also feels really bad.

It's a big game for Dean. Does Plan A stack up against some of the divisions best? Is there a variation you've been waiting to unveil? We need to see a reaction from the players after the midweek performance.

A haul of 4+ points from the next three games will really encourage me as to how this season will go.

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As ever, good analysis.

It will be very interesting to see the starting line up, as effectively ever since an hour in against Coventry, when Bakinson & Martin came on & replaced HNM & Famara, we have kept the same side, bar Mawson for (the then injured) Kalas.

I completely get the desire by Holden to avoid LJ’s overtinkering but hopefully he saw in midweek that it does badly need freshening up now, even aside from Kalas coming back for Mawson, we need to look at making a few more.

Hopefully starting Dasilva, Brunt (I have given up waiting for Williams or Walsh) & possibly Diedhiou too, depending on how Martin is, all make sense to me.

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We've had some lucky wins this season and haven't really hit our stride except in the second half against Wednesday and for short periods in the other wins.  We really need to get more control in midfield whch means support for Bakinson who has been the stand out player so far.  Weimann and Patterson together don't give us that - either one or the other or may be time to rest both to the bench and bring in some fresh legs and new ideas from players who can look after the ball better and link more effectivley with Martin, our other stand out to date.  Nagy, Massengo, Brunt are all good options and deserve a chance to show what they can do in this formation.  Why JD isn't in the match squad is beyond me but he definitely needs to be brought back now.  Looking at the squads we're at least a match for Swansea - if we can compete in midfield we should have the beating of them at home.  

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1 hour ago, SouthS22 said:

We've had some lucky wins this season and haven't really hit our stride except in the second half against Wednesday and for short periods in the other wins.

I totally get what you’re saying, but I might flip it around and say that none of our opponents have dominated us much either, certainly not for long spells.  Games have been fairly even in the main, that’s the Championship, and it therefore doesn’t take much to turn a draw into a win.  I thought we thoroughly deserved wins against Stoke and Wednesday, just about did enough (overall) to shade Coventry.  But if we were sat here with w3 d3 or w3 d2 l1 and 11/12 points I don’t think that is a million miles of what we deserved. So perhaps a point or two better off than we should have.

We really need to get more control in midfield whch means support for Bakinson who has been the stand out player so far.  Weimann and Patterson together don't give us that - either one or the other or may be time to rest both to the bench and bring in some fresh legs and new ideas from players who can look after the ball better and link more effectivley with Martin, our other stand out to date.

I still think too often there’s a missing part of the argument to the Pato and Weimann debate.  Our midfield has rarely been run-through, exposing our CBs and I think there is too much made of them being a striker and a no10, because it’s actually given us a lot more options going forward, and that’s the bit people want to give up by swapping one or both out.  I look at goals like Weimann’s at Forest, Pato at Coventry and Exeter, etc and wonder how we score those goals without two more adventurous midfielders.

But I do agree there could be a better balance too, so waiting to see how that plays out.  It’s got us goals from midfield, something we’ve failed to do for most of the last 4 seasons.  And we have conceded only 5 in 6 games, 2 very much avoidable....yeah Bentley has helped save a couple too!  Swings and roundabouts.
Nagy, Massengo, Brunt are all good options and deserve a chance to show what they can do in this formation.  Why JD isn't in the match squad is beyond me but he definitely needs to be brought back now.  Looking at the squads we're at least a match for Swansea - if we can compete in midfield we should have the beating of them at home.

I think Dasilva will come back in tomorrow, and then he will become first choice with Rowe as cover.  I get why Holden has gone with O’Dowda on the bench for versatility over Jay, but it’s not what I’d have done....but I’d have played Jay anyway (once fit)....whilst accepting he probably wouldn’t have scored v Wednesday.

Comments above ⬆️⬆️⬆️

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36 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Good stuff. I'm yet to see Swansea this season. Korey getting forward a lot someone told me.

They have strengthened well. Guehi back on loan, he was superb against us I thought end of last season.

I thought in that game a problem for us was Afobe and Wells not linking up very well. Both too similar maybe, although I was excited about them together, maybe I should have seen that might be a problem.

At least they haven't got Connor Gallagher back who's work rate was as good as anybody, and amazing quality too with the ball at his feet.

Id definitely freshen up the wing backs. Go with Dasilva and Sessegnon. I thought we should have done that last game.

Pato needs to be dropped for this one I think. O'Dowda and Weimann box to box, which I also thought we should have done last game. Joe Williams and not O'Dowda if he is back fit.

Big game for Bakinson. I feel like if he's not at his best then we may struggle. Such an important position.

Its kind of hard not to make changes after midweek. Semenyo I think should be in for Wells who I think has been poor most games this season.

Out of interest, how do you want Callum to play as Pato’s replacement, both in and out of possession and who he might match up with in the Swansea team?  Left side of Bakinson or right side, more as a 10?

FWIW, tomorrow is a better game for Callum than Boro....his performances have generally been better against the teams that don’t bully him, e.g. Norwich.  Swansea aren’t bullies either.

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4 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Agree I think Callum plays best against the better sides. Thinking Norwich both games in their promotion season, Fulham last season, I think it was one of the Leeds games he came on and looked really good. And we saw it in 18/19 he's far more effective counter attacking sides, and this is a very counter attacking system we have and playing against a passing side like Swansea I think suits him.

I'd have him and Weimann box to box, both sitting in at times to help Bakinson like Weimann and Paterson both do currently.

I think both have very high work rate. I actually think O'Dowda looked good in this system under LJ. Cardiff away he was one of our best players. Swansea at home too.

I didn’t say he plays better against the better teams, I said he plays better against the teams that don’t bully him.  I do agree with you that in some case that is against more attack based teams...because he gets time and space.  He may well get that tomorrow with Swansea.  I think He’d have struggled against Morsy on Tuesday but that’s just me speculating against his performances previously against players happy to kick him about.

So my thoughts are that Swansea suit him when he gets on the ball, but I do have concerns about his concentration and positional sense when Swansea are working triangles and running off his shoulder or on the blindside.  I have similar concerns with Pato at times too, so I’m not just picking faults because it’s Callum.

Against Cardiff (possibly the only time last season I thought he was one of our best 2 or 3 players in a match....yes I’m harsh!) we played a much flatter CM3 (alongside Brownhill and Nagy), so I’m not convinced you can just put him as a no8 (argh I hate that term) and expect him to do the business.  He needs to play from deeper starting positions so that there is space to run into.  Pato likes to get in to feet on the half turn or even back to goal.

Will be an interesting CM3 team selection tomorrow.  My guess is that it might be Brunt, Bakinson and Weimann.  We’d both like to see Willians though.

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4 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

O'Dowda hasn't had any starts under Holden. Different manager, different ideas. 

I think there's others we could say have been poor under LJ.

Weimann I think had been poor in more games than he was good under LJ. Look at him now under Holden.

Right wing not really adding much on the ball, or up top running around but us not benefitting much at all from his work rate. Holden is getting the best version of Weimann in his current role.

Hunt as well, good games but many bad ones under LJ. This season been far more consistent offensively and a lot more solid defensively. 

Even Rowe I think has improved a lot this season, though I still think he's a bit too limited at wing back. His best games there have been better than those under LJ imo.

So I am looking forward to Holden's version of O'Dowda. I think this system suits him. Direct, quick and works very hard. I had a feeling he'd be more a Holden type player than some others we have.

I honestly think that LJ was trying to force too many ideas onto players. Be able to play 3/4 different shapes in one game and have to cope with the different positions and requirements. Just too complicated. Holden has used one shape/system and tweaked a little if necessary, keep it simple .  

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1 hour ago, LondonBristolian said:

Not the thread for this but don't want to start a new one.  We've not had any kind of update on Mawson at all yet have we?

No we have not.  MacGregor on Bristol Live alluded to the fact updates around 17:00 ?  I'm am sure he will ask about Mawson, Walsh & Williams.  However DH will not want to reveal his hand too much for the Swans will he. 

I fancy three changes, wing backs & possibly Fam for CM. Bit rotation.  That said Jay was not even on bench Tuesday .  With all these games the squad will be used. Still 2.00pm we might all have a shock.

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Whoever starts, we have to play all over the park with some more pace than we ever got to on Tuesday.

I don't mean how fast we run but the speed of passing must be quicker than the snail trail which gave Boro so much time to press.

As for any changes in personnel, we do not have that many options. What appears to be a squad with too many is actually quite sparse at present.

Is Dasilva fit? When will we ever see Williams and Walsh?  And with Paterson reverting to one good game in five, where is the creativity and support for whoever gets the short straw to play up front? 

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10 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

Whoever starts, we have to play all over the park with some more pace than we ever got to on Tuesday.

I don't mean how fast we run but the speed of passing must be quicker than the snail trail which gave Boro so much time to press.

As for any changes in personnel, we do not have that many options. What appears to be a squad with too many is actually quite sparse at present.

Is Dasilva fit? When will we ever see Williams and Walsh?  And with Paterson reverting to one good game in five, where is the creativity and support for whoever gets the short straw to play up front? 

Yep, tempo is a key part of my summary.

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27 minutes ago, bristolcitysweden said:

Will Swansea do the obvious and press us high?

If so what have we learnt from the last two games to deal with it?

They don’t press high aggressively like say Barnsley (hectic press) Blackburn and Millwall.  Boro pressed mainly when we tried to move into midfield it wasn’t a high press.  The 3 CBs did a decent job of moving the ball between themselves to create the opportunity to move the ball through the lines, but Boro pushed Spence tight to Rowe and Johnson to Hunt.

Boro did of course press high occasionally, e.g. the goal, when they sensed the opportunity.

Vyner and Moore’s passing stats were up on their season averages (both number and accuracy).  Mawson was on track before injury too.

We do need “horses for courses” solutions for different opponents.  We’ve seen that in most games this season or at least parts of games.  Tuesday we didn’t.

Swansea will provide a different challenge.  They will want to dominate possession.  The more time they have it, the less time they have to think about getting it back.  I don’t think we press heavily or high either, so not giving it back cheaply is goal number one, or else we will be chasing it a lot.  But when we get possession Swansea are not structured like Boro, they will let you play through them (not on purpose of course), just that they aren’t as good a defensive unit as plenty of other team’s.  They don’t have any ratty midfielders like Morsy.  Korey Smith is energy but he’s not dirty, physical.

Every team gives different problems.

 

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20 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Comments above ⬆️⬆️⬆️

Dave, thanks as always for posting your analysis which I learn plenty from.

Small point in one of your subsequent posts... you said we good value v Wednesday - not first half! They did a Boro on us in the 1st 45. I remember clearly because I was chatting throughout the game with my Wednesday supporting family who couldn't believe the turnaround after half time.

So much of the tactical battle in this league seems to be the battle of the press. The team that is switched on and lively in their press can force so many errors.

Wednesday did it to us for 45 mins, Boro did it well for 90. Swansea will surely look to press Bakinson hard throughout. They might think our depleted and error-prone back line are worth pressing too.

City need to be prepared for that. When Bakinson receives the ball in congested areas he needs rehearsed options.

I think we also need to revert to attack being our best form of defence. We just didn't impose ourselves at all on Tuesday. We need that flair and arrogance back. That's about attitude and confidence which is where Holden comes in.

I agree with your scoreline prediction!

 

Edit: one more point... Swansea have two 20 year old centre backs? If we play Martin and Wells up top I would expect them to use their nous and experience to out-think the defence.

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23 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 

Swansea (H): 15:00 Sat 27th October – What Can We Expect?

Having received a punch on the nose versus Barnsley last weekend, City welcome Swansea to Ashton Gate on Saturday mindful that a Swan can break your arm!  With 13 points from 6 games and sat in 2nd place it seems strange to think that for some fans this match looks like it may provide a mark as to whether City’s start was a flash in the pan or not.  

Manager:

Swansea are managed by Steve Cooper, who is in his second season at the Liberty Stadium.  After a modest playing career that started at Wrexham and ended at Bangor City, the son of former league referee Keith Cooper gained his UEFA Pro badges by the age of 27.  He took coaching roles at Wrexham and Liverpool before taking over England age group teams, culminating in winning the u17 World Cup.

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Pic 1 - Cooper celebrates England u17 World Cup win!

Last season his Swansea team made a late run for the playoffs as Forest faltered, as he used his England contacts to bring in talented loanees like Rhian Brewster, Marc Guehi and Conor Gallagher.  They played an attractive brand of passing football before falling to Brentford 3-2 on aggregate in the semi-final.  Swansea expect to be right in the playoff mix again this season.

Season so far:

They have started pretty well.  After an early exit in the EFL Cup to Newport where they looked seriously undercooked, they won three of the next four before suffering their first defeat on Saturday at home to Huddersfield.  A draw at St Andrews versus Coventry on Tuesday leaves them in 6th place, 2 points behind City.

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Pic 2 - Championship table ahead of this weekend's fixtures [BBC Sport]

System / Formation:

Cooper played a 4231 system last season until post-Covid when he changed to a 3412 / 352.  The opportunity to make better use of the talented Andre Ayew alongside Rhian Brewster rather than drifting in off the right wing necessitated the change as they earned 10 points from their final 5 games to edge past Forest and into the playoffs.

Cooper has continued the 3412 this season, although he has the flexibility within the squad to alter that system in-game to suit the state of the match or opponents.

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Pic 3 - Swansea (right) starting eleven versus Coventry

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Pic 4 - Swansea tactical changes versus Coventry

Against Coventry in the week a half-time sub saw Cooper change from 3412 to 343 to stop Coventry playing out from the back.  Then with 25 minutes to go Cooper went to a solid middle three with the introduction of a conventional central midfielder.

Recruitment – Ins and Outs

It’s fair to say many pundits are suggesting Swansea “won” the transfer window with a series of excellent signings both early on and again on “Deadline Day”.  Cooper used his England contacts to secure highly rated youngsters from Premier League clubs on loan.

Incoming:

§  Jamal Lowe – £800k from Wigan

§  Korey Smith – free (out of contract at Bristol City)

§  Freddie Woodman – loan from Newcastle (second season with Swansea)

§  Morgan Gibbs-White – loan from Wolves

§  Marc Guehi – loan from Chelsea

§  Viktor Gyokeres – loan from Brighton

on Deadline Day:

§  Ryan Manning – £250k from QPR

§  Ryan Bennett – undisclosed from Wolves

§  Joel Latibeaudiere – undisclosed from Manchester City

§  Kasey Palmer – loan from Bristol City

The only negative is the injury to Gibbs-White which probably hastened the decision to bring Palmer in on loan.

Outgoing:

§  Bersant Celina – £2.7m to Dijon

§  Kristoffer Pederson – £400k to Fortuna Dusseldorf

§  Mike Van der Hoorn – free to Armenia Bielefeld

§  Erwin Mulder – free to Heerenveen

§  Joe Rodon – £10.9m to Spurs (on Deadline Day)

How do they play:

Swansea like to pass the ball.  They regularly make over 500 passes per game (average 434) and with 80% plus accuracy too.  City average 396 at 78%..  There are three main parts to that success:

1.     Side centre-backs that are comfortable on the ball.

Both side centre-backs, Ben Cabango and Marc Guehi are more than happy to receive the ball from keeper Freddie Woodman and can build attacks from there.  Both are 20 years of age, yet we consider Moore and Vyner, both 23 to be young for this position.

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Pic 5 - Woodman pass network versus Coventry [Wyscout]

Against Coventry, 18 of Woodman’s 21 interactions with his back three were to the side centre-backs, Cabango and Guehi, with little interaction with Ryan Bennett. 

Swansea’s only defeat came in the previous match to this versus Huddersfield where Cabango played as the middle centre-back and Woodman continued to distribute the ball to him rather than Kyle Naughton who’d come in at right centre-back.  This changed the angles they make with their midfielders and wingbacks whilst also meaning one extra pass and possibly making it easier for Huddersfield to get into defensive shape. (Credit: @swansanslytics on Twitter)

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Pic 6 - Woodman pass network versus Huddersfield [Wyscout]

Here we can see the difference in interactions with the middle centre-back Cabango (total 20) as opposed to Bennett (3 versus Coventry).  We can also see that Woodman had more interaction with right wing-back Connor Roberts than Kyle Naughton.  This unbalanced Swansea usual routes out from the back as they made only 354 passes.  We’ve seen ourselves that when Bentley can play quicker passes to Mawson and Vyner, City’s attacks are less likely to be stifled by a team who are disciplined in their defensive shape.

It would suggest whoever City play up-top on Saturday they would be better off closing Cabango and Guehi rather than the slightly less capable ball-player Bennett and make Swansea build more centrally.

2.     Matt Grimes – anything but grim

The former Exeter midfielder is the key to Swansea’s possession and build-up acting as a progressive pivot to their passing moves.  He tends to operate in the left half of the pitch and likes to get on the ball as much as possible (see pass map below).

97A76504-AAA1-4872-9A35-9807FAA61F10.thumb.jpeg.7c1e17b3b4dd3ea4436ef0f9d561a78f.jpeg

Pic 7 - Matt Grimes passing map versus Coventry [Wyscout]

He links well with Guehi and left wing-back Jake Bidwell in moving the ball up the pitch.

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Pic 8 - Bidwell passes infield to Grimes versus Coventry

In this sequence we see Grimes (8) come short to receive a pass from Bidwell.  He has Marc Guehi available if he needs to go backwards, but he is aware that his marker is 5 yards away so can take a touch.  Jamal Lowe (9) is coming short to offer himself for a pass.

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Pic 9 - Grimes passes to Lowe versus Coventry

As the passage of play continues, Grimes turns and passes to Lowe who flicks a pass onto Bidwell who’s not stopped his forward run.  He bombs down the wing to cross and although Coventry half-clear the balls falls to Lowe who shoots just over the bar.

The little passes around the corner to teammates in sync with Grimes remind me of Barry Bannan (Sheffield Wednesday) so City will need to decide whether to mark him tight or try to press the receiver of his passes.  Looks like the energy of Andi Weimann on the right side of City’s midfield three would be a good option.

3.     Flying wingbacks

I’ve already started to elude to Jake Bidwell’s importance in showing how he links with Grimes (above), but Swansea have a pair of wingbacks who love to bomb forward.  On the opposite wing Swansea have Connor Roberts.  He scored the goal at the Liberty to inflict Dean Holden’s only defeat of his caretaker spell last season.  Both are ideal for the wingback role, possess high energy, good technically on the ball, whilst being able to defend.  Roberts is starting to build a relationship with City old-boy Korey Smith, who appears to be playing more of a box-to-box role under Cooper and perhaps more reminiscent of his first two seasons at Ashton Gate.

A6E27FB6-E3F7-4B7B-8412-DCA30E68735E.jpeg.2e4fb574c2f8a5c88e02f8711e137f9f.jpeg

Pic 10 - Jake Bidwell season heatmap [Wyscout]

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Pic 11 - Connor Roberts season heatmap [Wyscout]

With both clubs playing three games in a week there will be temptation for both head-coaches to freshen up these high intensity positions.  Swansea could bring in new signing Ryan Manning on the left and Kyle Naughton on the right.

My final observation of Swansea goes back to their 2-0 win against Wycombe.  They absolutely carved Wycombe open at will and created a whole host of chances but only scored twice.  For fans of XG (Expected Goals) stats, they are under-performing this season.

DAE0E1A4-7AE6-4516-925E-75199F290730.thumb.jpeg.75811e0fab876e3429f2dc04c47e6558.jpeg

Pic 12 - Championship top 7 Expected Goals (XG) [Wyscout]

We can see that Brentford and Swansea are at the top of the XG pile, but Swansea have scored 3 goals fewer.  Likewise, Norwich and Forest have scored less than you’d expect them to have from their chances created.  Whereas City, Blackburn and Huddersfield are outperforming their XG.  Is there a tendency for Swansea to want to score the perfect goal?  Let’s hope they don’t change this trend against City!

The Players:

Possible line-up

GK: Freddie Woodman (23) – England age group keeper on loan from Newcastle and remembered for winning the u20 World Cup for England.  Good with his feet, and of course well known to City’s coaches Simpson and Downing.

RWB: Connor Roberts (25) – Welsh international who’s played on loan in the West Country for our north of the river neighbours and Yeovil.  Very exciting modern day fullback who is very capable on the ball, a good engine, and solid defensively.  A key player in their build up from the back down the right channel.

LWB: Jake Bidwell (27) – ex-Everton, Brentford and QPR LB signed on a free last summer.  A lot of fans were worried about his passing pedigree having come from a direct-QPR team, but I remember him being very suited to Swansea’s Style from his Brentford days.  Had Dasilva not signed for City, he was someone high on my list along with Antonee Robinson.  Good player and likes a tackle too!  If Cooper decides to freshen up, then Ryan Manning (24) – the recent signing from QPR could come in.  Had a loan spell at Rotherham and can play in midfield too.

RCB: Ben Cabango (20) – young ball-playing centre-back who recently made his full Welsh international debut. Got a bit of pace too.

CB: Ryan Bennett (30) – astute signing by Cooper in a young Swansea team.  Formerly at Norwich and Peterborough before achieving promotion with Wolves in 2017/18.  Scored the injury time winner at Ashton Gate which many City fans felt turned our season.

LCB: Marc Guehi (20) – young defender back on loan from Chelsea for his second season.  Reminds me of being in the mould of Tomori (Derby loanee last season).  Has played all 6 games so far this season having missed the Carabao Cup game on England age group duty.  Member of Cooper’s U17 World Cup winning squad scoring in the final whilst earning caps under Downing and Simpson.

CM: Matt Grimes (25) – ex-Exeter man, and one scouted heavily by City in the past, but got away.  Neat and tidy midfielder who comes deep to join the CBs and start the play.  Key player that gets them playing.

CM: Korey Smith (29) – needs no introduction as one of City fans’ favourite players over 7 years at the club.  Looks to have settled in really quickly and I’m sure he will become a fans favourite at Swansea too.  I don’t expect Cooper to change Smith or Grimes but waiting in the swings are Jay Fulton (26) – former Scottish u21 midfielder who joined from Falkirk 6 seasons ago.  Nice left foot and will hurt us if we give him time on the ball.  Alternatively, Yan Dhanda (20) – a free transfer from Liverpool in the summer of 2018.

CAM – Viktor Gyokeres (22) – on loan from Brighton and benefitting from an injury to Morgan Gibbs-White (20) – on loan from Wolves who’d made an exciting start to his Swans loan spell.  Kasey Palmer (23) – also needs no introduction spending at least 3 months on loan at Swansea from ourselves.  He is ineligible for this game.

CF: Andre Ayew (30) – Ghanaian international, and a very good player at this level.  Good back-catalog of clubs - Lorient, Marseilles, West Ham, and strong runner with the ball.  Likes to come inside off the wings, and also dart in behind, prompting the more central role Cooper has given him.  One of those players where everything is done at pace...and one we don’t want to let run on the blindside. Likes to make a meal of every challenge made on him though! My DANGERMAN.

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Pic 13 - Andre Ayew in action in last season’s Playoff semi-final versus Brentford

CF: Jamal Lowe (26) – signed from Wigan in the summer having plied the non-league circuit before starring at Portsmouth.  Can play from the left, but his pace is being used centrally by Cooper.

So How Do We Win:

1.     Freshen it up:

On Tuesday night against Boro a few City players looked like a third game in 7 days might be too much, so I expect Dean Holden to make changes.  There are a few candidates for a rest, but Swansea might be the right game to bring Jay Dasilva and Steven Sessegnon back in at wingback.  Jay will bring better passing options from the back whilst “Sess” will bring pace to counter Bidwell’s constant runs forward, as well as his own energy to go past Bidwell the other way.

There are other possibilities in midfield and up-front, but I’m sure Holden won’t be making changes for changes sake.  City’s back three is going to have to get by with Moore and Vyner alongside the experienced Kalas if Mawson’s injury is as bad as feared.

2.     Tempo:

If City allow Swansea to get into defensive shape it is going to be difficult to break them down, although that’s no different for almost every team in the Championship.  Tempo is key, more so for City.  In every game this season where we’ve moved the ball quickly and crisply, we’ve created chances or at least opportunities to create chances. Below I’ve spotted four ways in which City can open up Swansea.

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Pic 14 - Swansea unable to press in a structured way with Coventry in transition

Transition: In the example above, the Coventry keeper (Marosi) throws the ball quickly to Giles.  Swansea get caught with two players (Roberts and Gyokeres) pressing him, and Giles easily passes inside to Shipley who builds an attack down Swansea’s left in the space where Roberts has over-committed.

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Pic 15 - Swansea caught b y a simple pass between two players

Passing Lanes: a simple example of Ayew (10) not doing anything of note to stop a pass from the Coventry centre-back to the elusive O’Hare (11).  Korey Smith is not marking anyone either.  Maybe he’s not “here, there and everywhere” as the lyrics of the Gerry Gow song would have us believe!

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Pic 16 - Swansea not shifting across the pitch

Shifting across the pitch: In the above passage of play, Coventry quickly pass inside from their left sided centre-back to the middle centre-back, who chips a ball over Ayew (left of picture who is stopping the pass to the right centre-back) to the right wingback to move onto.  Swansea’s central midfielders (red circles) are really slow to shuffle across and Grimes and Bidwell both get attracted to the ball, leaving space for the Coventry attacker to run into the space behind.  All it took was two quick passes to create acres of space for the Coventry wingback to advance into.

In all three examples, Coventry moved the ball quickly and Swansea left gaps as a result.

Speed of thought: Finally, Swansea were caught out by Huddersfield with a short corner last weekend.

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Pic 17 - Swansea get caught 2-on-1 from a corner

Although City look more of a threat from their own set-pieces into the box this season, we see above how easily Huddersfield exposed Swansea from a short corner.  Only one Swansea player went out to defend the quickly taken corner and Huddersfield easily worked the advantage.  The pass led to a shot and with the aid of a deflection Toffolo scored for the Terriers.

Prediction:

Both sides two games without a win.  Both sides in the top 6.  I see both sides sharing the points.

Bristol City 1:1 Swansea City

 

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1 minute ago, mozo said:

Dave, thanks as always for posting your analysis which I learn plenty from.

Small point in one of your subsequent posts... you said we good value v Wednesday - not first half! They did a Boro on us in the 1st 45. I remember clearly because I was chatting throughout the game with my Wednesday supporting family who couldn't believe the turnaround after half time.

So much of the tactical battle in this league seems to be the battle of the press. The team that is switched on and lively in their press can force so many errors.

Wednesday did it to us for 45 mins, Boro did it well for 90. Swansea will surely look to press Bakinson hard throughout. They might think our depleted and error-prone back line are worth pressing too.

City need to be prepared for that. When Bakinson receives the ball in congested areas he needs rehearsed options.

I think we also need to revert to attack being our best form of defence. We just didn't impose ourselves at all on Tuesday. We need that flair and arrogance back. That's about attitude and confidence which is where Holden comes in.

I agree with your scoreline prediction!

Over the course of the 90, I thought we were.  The first half wasn’t as bad imho as many made out.  Wednesday shaded it, but I think we were ok, we just tried to force it a couple of times and lost ball in poor positions - I think that gave the impression that Wednesday were better than they were.  Second half we were good.  All my opinion of course.

Re Swansea, they will have to change their approach if they are gonna press us / Bakinson.  Someone on twitter suggested Cooper will sit Korey Smith on Bakinson and that’ll be that.  My counter-argument was if they do that it will ruin their shape.  I was chatting to the brilliant “Swansanalytics” on twitter last night (he works for Market Insights who do recruitment analysis for pro clubs) and he agrees that Swansea are not a hard or high pressing team.  He is worried we will break their lines as most teams have.  Whilst acknowledging they are a very good team with the ball he said they aren’t anywhere near as capable without the ball.

The problem with the advent of the press becoming common parlance in football fans conversations is that the nuances of each team’s pressing style gets missed.

Barnsley are the closest to the gegenpress, Forest deploy a left or right half of the pitch press, Boro were mid-pitch etc, etc.

Swansea I would suggest don’t have a real press style at all.

We will see from their team selection whether they’ve changed because they have concerns about us.  If they play Lowe, Ayew and Gyokeres, then I’d say they are gonna play very open...and one of those three won’t want to do the hard yards on Bakinson - especially Ayew, who is lazy w/o the ball.  If one of those miss out and Fulton comes in, then I’d suggest they are concerned about our midfield.

Its stuff like this that is the reason why I write these things, so I can understand what the opposition might do to counter us.  It’s quite possible this match is like a basketball match with both sides backing their own possession to be better than the other.

I wasn’t surprised Holden made only 1 change on Tuesday, although I didn’t expect the same 10 outfield players to be retained.  Today will surely see a few changes, and hopefully those players coming in are desperate to impress and make the difference.

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14 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Over the course of the 90, I thought we were.  The first half wasn’t as bad imho as many made out.  Wednesday shaded it, but I think we were ok, we just tried to force it a couple of times and lost ball in poor positions - I think that gave the impression that Wednesday were better than they were.  Second half we were good.  All my opinion of course.

Re Swansea, they will have to change their approach if they are gonna press us / Bakinson.  Someone on twitter suggested Cooper will sit Korey Smith on Bakinson and that’ll be that.  My counter-argument was if they do that it will ruin their shape.  I was chatting to the brilliant “Swansanalytics” on twitter last night (he works for Market Insights who do recruitment analysis for pro clubs) and he agrees that Swansea are not a hard or high pressing team.  He is worried we will break their lines as most teams have.  Whilst acknowledging they are a very good team with the ball he said they aren’t anywhere near as capable without the ball.

The problem with the advent of the press becoming common parlance in football fans conversations is that the nuances of each team’s pressing style gets missed.

Barnsley are the closest to the gegenpress, Forest deploy a left or right half of the pitch press, Boro were mid-pitch etc, etc.

Swansea I would suggest don’t have a real press style at all.

We will see from their team selection whether they’ve changed because they have concerns about us.  If they play Lowe, Ayew and Gyokeres, then I’d say they are gonna play very open...and one of those three won’t want to do the hard yards on Bakinson - especially Ayew, who is lazy w/o the ball.  If one of those miss out and Fulton comes in, then I’d suggest they are concerned about our midfield.

Its stuff like this that is the reason why I write these things, so I can understand what the opposition might do to counter us.  It’s quite possible this match is like a basketball match with both sides backing their own possession to be better than the other.

I wasn’t surprised Holden made only 1 change on Tuesday, although I didn’t expect the same 10 outfield players to be retained.  Today will surely see a few changes, and hopefully those players coming in are desperate to impress and make the difference.

That's interesting. It could be our kind of game then if the pressing is less aggressive. Also, players like Paterson and Weimann could be in their element receiving passes from Bakinson between the lines. Let's hope Swans play into our hands!

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