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Bournemouth (a) - Wed 28th Oct 19:45 - What Can We Expect?


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AFC Bournemouth (A) – Wed 28th Oct 19:45 – What Can We Expect?

AFC Bournemouth have made a very solid start to their return to the Championship following five seasons in the Premier League.  Formed as Boscombe FC, they became Bournemouth & Boscombe Athletic in 1923 and were elected to the Football League.  They changed their name to AFC Bournemouth in 1971 so they would appear first in alphabetical club lists.  Everyone knows Arsenal are first, although in my day it was Aldershot!

They’ve started with 3 wins and 4 draws and therefore unbeaten, although currently on a run of three successive draws.  Ahead of the midweek round of fixtures, Bournemouth are in 4th place on 13 points, one point and two places behind City.

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Pic 1 - Championship table ahead of the midweek round of fixtures [BBC Sport]

In the Carabao Cup they knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties, entering at the second-round stage, before losing a tight affair to Man City in the third round.

Who’s the boss?

The Cherries are managed by Jason Tindall who was previously assistant to long-serving Eddie Howe across two spells whilst they also had an 18-month stint together at Burnley.  Tindall first became assistant under Jimmy Quinn in 2008 having played over 150 games for his club.  He moved  briefly to Weymouth in 2006 before returning with Howe in 2008 and the rise from the bottom of League Two began. Following Howe’s departure at the backend of last season, Tindall was appointed permanently in August.  Who says you can’t promote from within?

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Pic 2 - Tindall appointed as Bournemouth manager in August 2020

Recruitment: Ins and outs

With Bournemouth in their first season back down in the Championship they will still benefit from over £100m in parachute payments over the coming three seasons.  But the Premier League TV deal accounted for almost 90% of their revenue with Dean Court’s capacity so constraining.  Add in Covid and its no surprise that they’ve been forced to sell some key assets as they adjust to life in the second tier.

Incoming:

§  Rodrigo Riquelme – loan from Atletico Madrid

§  Cameron Carter-Vickers – loan from Tottenham

§  Asmir Begovic – returning from loan at AC Milan

Outgoing:

§  Nathan Ake – £41m to Man City

§  Callum Wilson – £20m to Newcastle

§  Aaron Ramsdale – £18.5m to Sheffield United

§  Jordan Ibe – free transfer (now at Derby County)

§  Brad Smith – free transfer (Sounders in MLS)

§  Ryan Fraser – free transfer (Newcastle)

§  Artur Boruc – free transfer (Legia Warsaw)

§  Jermain Defoe – free transfer (Rangers – previously on loan)

§  Andrew Surman – unattached

§  Simon Francis – unattached

§  Charlie Daniels – free transfer (Shrewsbury)

An element of book balancing taking place, but they did keep hold of Josh King on deadline day amid huge interest from the Premier League.

How do they play:

The Cherries play with a back three and wingbacks, and have mixed up the front five, either with a more conventional 352 or a forward threesome in a 343.

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Pic 3 - Starting line-up versus Watford [Wyscout]

They started with a 352 against Watford on Saturday in the lunchtime kick-off, however, an early injury to Jefferson Lerma meant Tindall brought on Dominic Solanki and switched to a 343.

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With substitutions in the final quarter of the match Tindall switched back to a 352 with Diego Rico replaced by Rodrigo Riquelme and Arnaut Danjouma by Junior Stanislas.  Holden and his staff will have to watch out for these tweaks so that they can be flexible in any match-ups they have planned.

Build-up:

For a side with a lot of Premier League pedigree remaining it is little surprise they’ve kept their “easy on the eye” approach, building from the back with centre-backs who are comfortable on the ball.

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Pic 4 - Playing out from the keeper (versus Coventry)

We see the typical approach of splitting the side centre-backs.  What we can’t see here is that one of the Bournemouth central midfield (e.g. Lewis Cook) will come short to give another passing option other than Stacey (17) or Begovic.  If he’s not tracked, then it’s an easy pass into midfield and the initial opposition press is wasted.  If he is tracked then Bournemouth’s forward players (e.g. Solanke) look to drop short to receive driven passes, where they can pop it off and break on the opposition.  In summary Bournemouth make the pitch very big and there is a lot of pitch to press.  They back themselves to be able play through it but with a safety net of being able to ping the front men if need be.

Creativity:

Bournemouth have good technical players and importantly good movement to compliment it.  Forward runs are made with purpose.

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Pic 5 - Danjouma breaks the lines versus Watford

With Danjouma breaking through the lines, Watford still have six players in close proximity, but unfortunately two of them have been caught behind the ball and the third is not really affecting play.  Solanke cleverly finds a position between two markers meaning the Watford defender is forced to come across with him.

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Pic 6 - Solanke gets a shot away versus Watford

With Watford shuffling to their right, Solanke uses Danjuma’s run to give him the option to check back onto his right foot and either play a pass to Chris Mepham (6) or take a shot.  Solanke shoots, but its straight at Foster in the Watford goal.  It is a feature of Solanke’s play so far this season that he likes to manoeuvre the ball onto his right foot and shoot for goal.

In the next sequence we see the opposite combination.

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Pic 7 - Solanke has the ball on the left wing versus Watford

This time around its Solanke who’s peeled into the left channel and faced up his marker.  Danjuma makes a run into the space behind the right centre-back and gives Solanke an easy pass.

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Pic 8 - Danjuma bursts into the space versus Watford

Danjuma is able to steal that yard on his marker and is now running onto the ball ready to pull a ball into a dangerous position.  Bournemouth have four runners trying to get into the box, Josh King, Solanke who’s not stopped to admire his pass, Jack Stacey (the right wingback) and Philip Billing who’s trying to pounce on any ball that’s cut back or half-cleared.  On this occasion Watford scramble the ball behind for a corner.  In summary, quick, purposeful and unselfish running is the key to creating opportunities.

Flying wingbacks:

It seems to be that every preview I write has a section on the opposition wingbacks.  As most of City’s opponents are playing some form of 352 maybe that’s not surprising.  The Cherries have two excellent wingbacks, Jack Stacey on the right and Adam Smith on the left, albeit a converted right sided player. 

Both play aggressively high up the pitch and are another asset in the Bournemouth armoury. Diego Rico is more conservative when playing left wingback.

Starting with Adam Smith on the left side, he provides energy and willingness to create width in positions high up the pitch.

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Pic 9 - Smith creates a run down the left versus Cardiff

On this occasion Smith isn’t worried whether gets the ball or not, he’s more interested in making the pitch as wide as possible and keeping the Cardiff right-back honest and leaving space for Gosling to break into the box and give Danjuma (10) a more threatening pass option.

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Pic 10 - Smith keeps his width versus Cardiff

As Danjuma darts inside, the Cardiff right-back realises Smith isn’t the danger, but Gosling is, but he’s now on the wrong side and can’t make a challenge for fear of giving away a penalty.  Gosling is able to cut into the box and shoots towards goal, but the shot is blocked.

When Smith does receive the ball, being predominately right footed, he will usually check back onto his right side and deliver an inswinger.

On the other side, Jack Stacey plays almost like a right winger.  He takes up advanced positions early in the phase of possession and appears to have infinite energy to bomb up and down.

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Pic 11a - Stacey runs into the space versus Watford

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Pic 11b - Stacey runs into the space versus Cardiff

In this example Stacey runs from a deeper position from a Gosling pass into the space in behind the Cardiff left-back.

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Pic 12 - Stacey pulls the ball back for Stanislas versus Cardiff

As is common in these positions the pass is pulled back to the onrushing Junior Stanislas and is hard to defend.  On this occasion Stanislas has an air-shot, but the ball spins to Jefferson Lerma who gets his shot on target.

We now see a similar example.

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Pic 13 - Stacey receives a great defence-splitting pass from Lerma versus Cardiff

Stacey is again the ever-willing runner and recipient of a superb pass from Lerma.  In the previous example just a few minutes earlier in the game Stacey pulled the ball back.

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Pic 14 - Stacey slides the cross into the 6-yard box versus Cardiff

This time Stacey plays a crisp cross into the path of Solanke to fire home (1-0).  But look at the body position of Cardiff’s Curtis Nelson (16 – blue circle).  He’s expecting another pull-back to Stanislas, and is edging towards him meaning he is not able to cover the cross.

City’s wingbacks will have to contend with a lot of attempts to run in behind them and will need support from Moore and Vyner.

Set-pieces:

Nothing out of the ordinary here from the Cherries.  The standard near-post variety (where blockers try to get the man running to the near-post un-marked) and a mid-goals delivery for Bournemouth’s big guys to attack.

Possible line-up:

GK: Asmir Begovic (33) – vastly experienced Bosnia-Herzegovina international who started at Portsmouth.  His career has taken him to Stoke, Chelsea and AC Milan (loan) whilst accumulating over £20m in transfer fees along the way, of which £10m of that was paid by Bournemouth in 2017.  As solid and reliable a keeper you’ll see in the Championship.

RWB: Jack Stacey (24) – the former Reading academy wingback who went to Luton on a free transfer in summer of 2017 becoming a key part of Nathan Jones’ League One promotion side.  The Cherries paid £4m for him last summer and he has quickly established himself as a key player.  Previously had loans at Barnet, Carlisle and Exeter. My DANGERMAN.

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Pic 15 - Jack Stacey - Right Wingback

RCB: Chris Mepham (22) – key player in the Brentford system that have played attractive football so a good fit when Bournemouth paid £12m for him last summer.  Welsh international who City fans may remember getting sent off (two yellow cards) at Griffin Park in 2018/19 season.

CCB: Steve Cook (29) – club captain who seems to have been around for ages.  Started at Brighton before signing for £150k in 2012.  Has now made nearly 350 appearances for the Cherries, and two promotions to boot.

LCB: Lloyd Kelly (22) – athletic full-back and centre-back, Kelly needs no introduction being “one of our own”.  I first saw him pre-season in 2015 and he looked a natural left sided centre-back.  Had an injury in his first season on the South coast having signed for £13m last summer, but when he did play, he received a lot of plaudits.  It’s possible the back three could be shuffled to include Diego Rico (27) – Spanish full-back who came through the Zaragoza youth ranks playing 100 times before moving to Leganes for £900k in 2017.  He made 51 La Liga appearances before Bournemouth splashed £13.5m on him in the summer of 2018.  Can play centre-back too.  Cameron Carter-Vickers (22) is getting back to fitness so may feature from the bench.

LWB: Adam Smith (29) – right-back / right-winger who provides versatility by playing left wing-back.  Started at Tottenham, enjoying loans at Torquay, Bournemouth, MK Dons, Leeds, Millwall and Derby before permanently joining the Cherries in January 2014.  Part of the Premier League promotion side and now boasts almost 250 appearances in red and black.

CM: Lewis Cook (23) – highly rated youngster who broke through at Leeds.  Played every England age group from u16 to u21, and has a solitary full international cap.  Is closing in on 100 Bournemouth appearances but perhaps hasn’t reached the heights excepted from his early career.  Only 23, so certainly still time.

CM: Dan Gosling (30) – vastly experienced midfielder who started at Plymouth. Moved to Everton just before his 18thbirthday, then to Newcastle where he struggled to get regular games, before a loan at Blackpool ignited his career and he signed for Bournemouth in the summer of 2014.  Another member of the Premier League promotion team.

CM: Phillip Billing (24) – Copenhagen born midfielder who recently made his full Danish international debut.  Moved to Huddersfield aged 17 and another player who’s achieved promotion to the Premier League.  Signed for the Cherries for almost £15m last summer.  Has a lovely left foot and can look effortless spraying it around the middle of the park.  With Jefferson Lerma (26) – picking up an injury against Watford I expect he will miss out on Wednesday.  The Columbian international is a fine player and will be a boost to City if he’s missing.  The other main option is David Brooks (23) – a wideman who can play inside.  Welsh international who has had niggly injuries to start this campaign.

CF: Dominic Solanke (23) – striker who started at Chelsea, going on the obligatory Vitesse loan before leaving on a free transfer to join Liverpool. In 2017.  Never got going at Anfield but secured a £19m move to Dean Court last January.  Struggled for goals last season but looks like he may be finding his touch this term.

CF: Josh King (28) – Norwegian international with 17 goals from 51 caps.  Came to England from Valerenga and had loans at Preston, Borussia Monchengladbach, Hull and Blackburn who he eventually joined permanently in 2013 for £1.1m.  Ran down his contract there, joining Bournemouth in the summer of 2015.  Has 50 goals for the Cherries but only featured twice this season amid Premier League interest over the summer window.  He is likely to battling it out with Arnaut Danjuma (23) – the Lagos born Dutch international who started as PSV.  Can play anywhere across the frontline and its possible Tindall may plump for a 343 and include Solanke, King and Danjuma at the expense of one of the three midfielders.

Other players:

CF: Sam Sturridge (22) – young striker who’s had loans at Poole, Yeovil, Oldham and Swansea.

RW/LW: Junior Stanislas (30) – experienced winger who signed from Burnley in the summer of 2014 having started at West Ham.

RW: Rodrigo Riquelme (20) – Atletico Madrid loanee (with option to buy) signed just before the end of the international transfer window.  Just two brief sub appearances so far.

How do City win: 

Beat the press:

Bournemouth aren’t a heavy pressing team, but if Tindall does decide to go 343, and Solanke, King and Danjuma try to press our centre-backs then there may be space for Bakinson and / or Brunt to receive the ball from Bentley and then open up the play.

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Pic 16 - Watford play through Bournemouth's press

Ben Foster is closed down by King but can play to forward to his left centre-back or into midfield.  Billing is caught between a rock and a hard place trying to close the space in front of him and marking his man.  The Watford defensive midfielder has to time to collect the pass and the ball wide as Billing closes him down, albeit too late.

Zonal centre-backs:

In quite a few examples I’ve seen, Bournemouth’s centre-backs seem content to mark space rather than their opponents.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it can be exploited.  

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Pic 17 - view of the Cherries zonal back line versus Watford

We can see Bournemouth are pretty well set up.  You could argue Kelly (LCB circled) could be wider and Steve Cook and Mepham could shuffle across, but the ball appears to be of little danger as it’s in the left defensive half of Watford’s half.  What is does highlight that Solanke doesn’t pressure the Watford defender who sprays a wonderful pass with pace out to Sarr.  Rico (also circled) is in touch with the Watford wingback at this point. 

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Pic 18 - one pass and Watford are away

Kelly doesn’t go out to close-down Sarr and is in no position to influence a cross either.  Rico is too far away having left his man to try to catch Sarr.  Sarr crosses to a dangerous area and Perica slides in to put Watford 1-0 up.  We are probably lacking Mawson’s passing from left to right to exploit this, but maybe Brunt picking the ball up instead is the way to take advantage.

The second example is the space between the centre-backs.

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Pic 19 - Watford exploit the gap between the centre-backs

A simple pass inside from Watford and poor closing down between Billing and Solanke allow Watford to play a ball in the gap between Mepham and Steve Cook for Sarr to run onto.  Perica (also circled) has positioned himself so that he’s split between Steve Cook and Kelly (out of picture) so that Cook isn’t marking either player.  This is good forward play from Watford’s too front-men ensuring that they space themselves between the three centre-backs. 

We will have to wait and see who Holden pairs up-top for City.  If Martin or Diedhiou plays, then we may see them trying to attract two centre-backs to leave Wells or Semenyo one-on-one instead.

Numbers in midfield:

If Bournemouth do line-up with a 343, then City may be able to make their extra man tell. In the example below, Watford sub Quina (20) sucks in Bournemouth’s Mepham (6) who gets too tight and is rolled.

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Pic 20 - Mepham sucked towards the ball versus Watford

This leaves a big space between Stacey (17) and Steve Cook (3), and perhaps shows how with Billing drawn towards the touchline how light the Cherries midfield becomes, especially when it’s a 343. 

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Pic 21 - Watford's Quina drives towards goal

As Quina runs away from Mepham and Lewis Cook, Kelly tries to come across but Perica drags him back towards Kelly’s left and Sarr gives Steve Cook a decision to track him or engage Quina.  Cook decides to track Sarr and Quina gets his shot away, but its straight at Begovic.  Ideally this is where Jamie Paterson would come into his own, but we will need to see who starts on Wednesday evening.

Press Lewis Cook:

I’ve spotted that Lewis Cook can be susceptible to losing the ball when receiving the ball back-to-goal under pressure of a challenge.  He is fine given a bit of time, but in Bournemouth’s expansive build-up play from the back he can get isolated easily.  He will often just tried and turn the ball around the corner first time, but City should be able to position for this.

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Pic 22 - Lewis Cook under pressure versus QPR

With Steve Cook not under enormous pressure from QPR’s Bonne he sees his passing route to Mepham blocked and a longer pass to Lerma too risky.  Lewis Cook drops short to receive the pass but takes a heavy touch and loses the ball.  This happened twice early on in the game, but QPR wasted both chances.  If Bakinson and Brunt play in central midfield, I feel that we could use Bakinson to get close to Cook and put him under pressure, without sacrificing Brunt’s defensive position.

What City need to improve upon:

Whilst there are areas in Bournemouth’s game that City can take advantage of, City themselves need to improve their own game.  The match against Swansea had lots of positive elements, e.g. we passed the ball better than them (at times) and they are renowned for passing teams to death.  What we didn’t do was take advantage of good positional situations.  Nor did we perhaps move the ball quickly enough.

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Pic 23 - Sessegnon crosses for Martin versus Swansea

Having said that we see in the above example Brunt has got the ball to Sessegnon (top right) in a one-on-one versus Bidwell.  Bidwell shows him inside and he delivers a good cross to Martin who heads just wide with Woodman scrambling.  Sessegnon didn’t always deliver a cross and I think Hunt in similar situations will do - and the likes of Martin expect him too and will make runs accordingly.  We also had three players in the box and two on the edge.

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Pic 24 - City create down their left side

In the second example we see where we waste a good opportunity.  Following a quick pass infield to Paterson, Semenyo and the galloping forward Dasilva have a real chance to get a two-on-one against Roberts (on a yellow card).    However, City don’t take advantage as Semenyo has to check back and by the time he passes to Dasilva Swansea have re-positioned on their right side.  The move peters out.  City really must look to get at the opposition wingback in these situations.

Prediction:

This is going to be a tough evening at Dean Court, but the advantage of their tight, little ground somewhat lessened with no fans, together with a defence that can be exposed leads me to think an exciting match ends up with the spoils shared.

AFC Bournemouth 2 : 2 Bristol City

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8 minutes ago, mozo said:

Looking at the league table...a win would be bloody lovely, wouldn't it... 

I wouldn't count it out.

1-2 win methinks.

Looking forward to this one then away for 10 days Thursday morning so will watch the Norwich win in the sun hopefully :sun: and the Huddersfield win in a nice bar ?  (yeah, in holiday mode).

 

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13 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Not from Monday I won’t, start new contract.  Might have to scale these back a bit.

Speak to Big Tone for tips on producing a condensed version. 

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Tonight’s squad::

Bentley

Hunt / Vyner / Kalas / Moore / LWB

CM / DM / CM

CF / CF

So 5 nailed on starters as we stand.

LWB: Dasilva / Rowe

DM: Bakinson / Brunt - I’m sure one at least will start

CM: Paterson / Nagy / Massengo / O’Dowda

CF: Martin / Wells / Semenyo / Diedhiou

Plus: O’Leary makes our fit 18.  Some players like Rowe can double up.

We then have Wollacott as back-up and it appears Towler and Opi Edwards as our 3 “travellers”.

It’s amazing how quick a player who looks like he’s nowhere near the squad, even getting kitted up, might now have to play minutes over the next 4 games at least.

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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Started my new job today as Joe Biden’s tactical analyst. ?2B15222D-866E-4F2D-A726-BE39013E9042.thumb.jpeg.146e5f57b2c233a94d6ea6c69b736f8f.jpeg

lot of bunching down the right side allows Biden an easy route to goal.  

Looks like it could be one of LJ’s training methods.

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2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Tonight’s squad::

Bentley

Hunt / Vyner / Kalas / Moore / LWB

CM / DM / CM

CF / CF

So 5 nailed on starters as we stand.

LWB: Dasilva / Rowe

DM: Bakinson / Brunt - I’m sure one at least will start

CM: Paterson / Nagy / Massengo / O’Dowda

CF: Martin / Wells / Semenyo / Diedhiou

Plus: O’Leary makes our fit 18.  Some players like Rowe can double up.

We then have Wollacott as back-up and it appears Towler and Opi Edwards as our 3 “travellers”.

It’s amazing how quick a player who looks like he’s nowhere near the squad, even getting kitted up, might now have to play minutes over the next 4 games at least.

Would start both Brunt & Bakinson tonight with Pato to give us a more solid base in midfield.

Semenyo to start to help get us up the pitch and chase the ball - think people are going to appreciate how much work Weimann gets through in a game 

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32 minutes ago, One Team In Keynsham said:

What do I expect? Another defeat. 

I honestly have near-zero sense of engagement right now, I'll most likely be swerving it.

I'm not questioning your disengagement, but...

If we win, we'll be 2nd after 8 games ?

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24 minutes ago, daored said:

Would start both Brunt & Bakinson tonight with Pato to give us a more solid base in midfield.

Semenyo to start to help get us up the pitch and chase the ball - think people are going to appreciate how much work Weimann gets through in a game 

Me too!!!

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32 minutes ago, daored said:

Would start both Brunt & Bakinson tonight with Pato to give us a more solid base in midfield.

Semenyo to start to help get us up the pitch and chase the ball - think people are going to appreciate how much work Weimann gets through in a game 

I think that makes sense.

We will definitely have lower energy levels in that new look midfield, but there's every chance that it will be more cohesive. 

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41 minutes ago, One Team In Keynsham said:

The league position would clearly good. But, I struggle to give a toss.

Come on, there must be some way the game can capture your imagination...

A Semenyo hat-trick?

Dean Holden punching 4th official?

The God of Chaos meteor lands on Massengo's hair?

 

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4 minutes ago, mozo said:

Come on, there must be some way the game can capture your imagination...

A Semenyo hat-trick?

Dean Holden punching 4th official?

The God of Chaos meteor lands on Massengo's hair?

 

If someone messages me that a UFO has landed on the centre circle and the aliens have come for one of our players, I would be tempted to switch over from The Repair Shop to see who we gave them.

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I’d change the dynamics a bit tonight

Assuming he wants to stick with 5-3-2

I’d sacrifice a bit of creativity for solidity at LWB and  in the midfield 3 , and play Semenyo in behind Famara supporting him and linking rather than right up top

Give Martin a break and challenge Famara to put in a performance  

 

 

               Bentley 

Hunt Vyner Kalas Moore Rowe

Massengo Bakinson Brunt

      Semenyo

      Diedhiou

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20 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

I’d change the dynamics a bit tonight

Assuming he wants to stick with 5-3-2

I’d sacrifice a bit of creativity for solidity at LWB and  in the midfield 3 , and play Semenyo in behind Famara supporting him and linking rather than right up top

Give Martin a break and challenge Famara to put in a performance  

 

 

               Bentley 

Hunt Vyner Kalas Moore Rowe

Massengo Bakinson Brunt

      Semenyo

      Diedhiou

That starting line up would get absolutely hammered...?

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42 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

I’d change the dynamics a bit tonight

Assuming he wants to stick with 5-3-2

I’d sacrifice a bit of creativity for solidity at LWB and  in the midfield 3 , and play Semenyo in behind Famara supporting him and linking rather than right up top

Give Martin a break and challenge Famara to put in a performance  

 

 

               Bentley 

Hunt Vyner Kalas Moore Rowe

Massengo Bakinson Brunt

      Semenyo

      Diedhiou

I’d like to see us go all Olivia Newton-John tonight and be physical with them.  We have committed the least fouls this season despite looking a bit more streetwise with the likes of Martin.  We will need to break up their passing / fluidity.

I do think we are gonna need channel runners tonight as we should look to clear down the flanks not centrally.

Interesting selection coming up.

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