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Out of contract players & what to do with them.


Tipps69
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With so many players due to be out of contract at the end of this season, I’m intrigued with why so many people have decided that Diedhiou either needs to sign a new contract or be sold!

But what about Walsh, Baker, Paterson, Weimann, Rowe & Hunt, why has there been no such ultimatum from fans towards them? Is it because Diedhiou cost us the most amount of money? 
Yet to the team so far this season it could probably be argued that Paterson has the most value & in the transfer market so why has the club either got to get Diedhiou to sign a new contract or sell him?

For me now, even if none of them sign new contracts, unless we get offered something ridiculous like £5m per player, there’s no point in selling them! Say we get offered £1m per player, the disruption & the cost of trying to replace them now (in the January window) would in theory be more than the £1m we received. To bring in say 3 new players to replace a possible 3 outgoings could have a detrimental effect on the squad & how we are performing, would it really be worth it?

Like I said, I’m mainly intrigued as to why people have decided that Diedhiou either needs to sign or leave & the rest are free to do as they seemingly want?

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Simple answer: market value.

Although in Covid times that’s significantly less.

Slightly more complicated answer: can sign a pre-contract abroad on Jan 1st

The other names are less likely to have suitors from abroad (Weimann - club has a year option)

All the points you’ve made are absolutely valid.

There have been similar discussions re Walsh as we’ve already exercised his option.

Hunt has revealed no discussions, but he’s happy with that, says he’s concentrating on his form.  Think he moved his family down here too.

Finally, you’d imagine the chances of our players improving wages at clubs likely to be interested in their services is probably low.

As for taking a million in January, don’t forget you’d save 6 month of wages too.

I suspect City would like to retain most / all of them, but finances will play a part.

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If it were my decision, I'd be attempting to re-sign all of them. 

Weimann via the clubs year option. Another year for Rowe, Paterson and Hunt if they'd take it. Walsh I'd attempt to tie down for a bit longer given his potential. And Baker I'd be offering a year but on reduced terms as he's rumoured to be on quite a wedge, isn't he?

I guess that probably all sounds a bit Football Manager though. Obviously it would be more complicated than that. 

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4 minutes ago, sinenomine said:

If it were my decision, I'd be attempting to re-sign all of them. 

Weimann via the clubs year option. Another year for Rowe, Paterson and Hunt if they'd take it. Walsh I'd attempt to tie down for a bit longer given his potential. And Baker I'd be offering a year but on reduced terms as he's rumoured to be on quite a wedge, isn't he?

I guess that probably all sounds a bit Football Manager though. Obviously it would be more complicated than that. 

I guess the issue we could have with that is, what IF we got promoted? Would they all be considered good enough? Or would we get stuck with a couple on contracts that we didn’t really need?

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One more thing, I think it has a bit to do with the club/manager/press have mentioned Fam's contract talks were going well. This is bound to get people talking, I wondered what was taking so long , when they were going well a month or two ago. The rest, as far as I know , haven't been mentioned apart from Walsh. He hasn't played since coming back, so no-one has seen him for a year, out of sight out of mind . 

These are the 2 I would try and get sorted now, the rest can probably wait. 

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15 minutes ago, mozo said:

Funnily enough, setting Walsh aside who is a bit unknown atm, I'd be happy to say goodbye to all of those players for different reasons. I realise that's really harsh but I'm just conflicted on all of them.

Kind of agree. We need to keep improving which means we have to be ruthless.

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50 minutes ago, mozo said:

Funnily enough, setting Walsh aside who is a bit unknown atm, I'd be happy to say goodbye to all of those players for different reasons. I realise that's really harsh but I'm just conflicted on all of them.

For me it is largely down to the cost of replacing these players and the availability of replacements that improve us. But maybe in a Covid affected market we'd do alright at finding the right players at a reasonable cost. It would have to be genuine improvements though because all of the OOC players are of a good Championship standard, IMO. 

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54 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Could be a lot of outgoings by the end of the season I think.

I think Walsh and Fam will probably be sold cheap in January with a good percentage of future profit, rather like how Freeman was sold.

Who knows with the others. Holden let a player of Korey's ability go so no one is safe!

 

Can’t see Fam justifying a fee in future that would give us much / any sell-on fee.  28 in December.  Very different stage of career to Freeman, and in his case rumours of 15% of £3.5m profit, so £525k.  Never one to sniff at any sell-on, but we aren’t talking Bolassie levels.  Could you honestly see Fam going for £8-10m in future?

For me, it would be reap as much as you can in January, assuming he doesn’t re-sign or sign a pre-contract elsewhere.

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1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

One more thing, I think it has a bit to do with the club/manager/press have mentioned Fam's contract talks were going well. This is bound to get people talking, I wondered what was taking so long , when they were going well a month or two ago. The rest, as far as I know , haven't been mentioned apart from Walsh. He hasn't played since coming back, so no-one has seen him for a year, out of sight out of mind . 

These are the 2 I would try and get sorted now, the rest can probably wait. 

And as things stand now, would you accept £1m for Diedhiou (I don’t believe we’d get anything more than that now with 6 months left on his contract) or keep him for the run-in?

My person feeling & it’s easy for me to say when it isn’t my money we’re talking about is that it’s a cheap price to receive when you consider what the rewards could be if we were still in the sort of position we are currently.

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14 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Can’t see Fam justifying a fee in future that would give us much / any sell-on fee.  28 in December.  Very different stage of career to Freeman, and in his case rumours of 15% of £3.5m profit, so £525k.  Never one to sniff at any sell-on, but we aren’t talking Bolassie levels.  Could you honestly see Fam going for £8-10m in future?

For me, it would be reap as much as you can in January, assuming he doesn’t re-sign or sign a pre-contract elsewhere.

If he bangs in goals and is a right handful wherever he goes then teams will be willing to spend quite a lot I think.

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1 hour ago, JonDolman said:

Could be a lot of outgoings by the end of the season I think.

I think Walsh and Fam will probably be sold cheap in January with a good percentage of future profit, rather like how Freeman was sold.

Who knows with the others. Holden let a player of Korey's ability go so no one is safe!

 

I don’t believe Diedhiou will have enough value in his remaining 6 months to be able to negotiate anything, in theory he can agree a deal to anywhere else in the world from January to leave in July. We won’t be in a position to negotiate anything.

Edited by Tipps69
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1 minute ago, Tipps69 said:

And as things stand now, would you accept £1m for Diedhiou (I don’t believe we’d get anything more than that now with 6 months left on his contract) or keep him for the run-in?

My person feeling & it’s easy for me to say when it isn’t my money we’re talking about is that it’s a cheap price to receive when you consider what the rewards could be if we were still in the sort of position we are currently.

It looks like, wherever we are next year, we will have to get another striker. Fam goes now or in the summer, we need a replacement. So. in my eyes £1m now and we have a long term replacement lined up, I'm happy. The other option is keep him for our promotion push, which we all hope we''ll have, and then worry about new strikers in the summer when we know where we are. I'd be happy with either of those options TBH.

This isn't a situation where money talks and we have to sell, no one will pay THAT sort of fee. But he could be important for the run in. You weigh up the cost of replacement and wages and you's be talking North of £8m I would think. Letting the contract run down and reassess in the summer looks the sensible option.

Like you say though, not our money.

 

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6 hours ago, Tipps69 said:

But what about Walsh, Baker, Paterson, Weimann, Rowe & Hunt,

The “problem” with this list is that if we were successful (I can still dream) I’d argue none of this list are Premier League quality.

So if that is our aim we should move them on. Clearly Walsh impressed in L1 but this is no guarantee at all and his injury has robbed us of any chance to test this, but also, it prevents any club from assessing his worth before offering a long term contract so I suspect he’ll stay to June.

Fam is different it’s notoriously difficult to get a reliable striker in January so we should keep him - there is no way we can afford a long term replacement especially if we think we can make play offs - but that’s another thread!

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12 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

If he bangs in goals and is a right handful wherever he goes then teams will be willing to spend quite a lot I think.

Out of interest, what sort of amount do you think we could get in a sell-on in future?  £2m? £3m?

Say we secure a 20% sell-on (15-20% seems to be the standard), do you think the club that buys him from us could then sell him for £8-£12m in say 18 months time after a full season of “banging in the goals”.

In a declining transfer market?

Or do you see the market going back to it’s pre-Covid values in the near future.

Fair play if you do.

A good article of the money spent last summer across Europe.  Serie A seems to have some creative accounting in player swaps!!!  That boosts their numbers.

https://www.football365.com/news/summer-2020-transfer-window-premier-league-1-26billion

Imho we missed Diedhiou’s top dollar value, which was probably last winter’s window.  Not our fault, COVID has had its affect, we couldn’t have foreseen it.
 

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48 minutes ago, sinenomine said:

For me it is largely down to the cost of replacing these players and the availability of replacements that improve us. But maybe in a Covid affected market we'd do alright at finding the right players at a reasonable cost. It would have to be genuine improvements though because all of the OOC players are of a good Championship standard, IMO. 

Yeah I suppose you could argue we have replacements for, say Paterson, Weimann and Walsh in Williams, Semenyo and...Walsh. Plus Massengo.

Hunt, Weimann and Baker all getting to 30ish and it feels like we need the next gen for those positions. 

Maybe I'd keep Rowe on as utility back up IF we see him as a coaching prospect.

 

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2 minutes ago, mozo said:

Yeah I suppose you could argue we have replacements for, say Paterson, Weimann and Walsh in Williams, Semenyo and...Walsh. Plus Massengo.

Hunt, Weimann and Baker all getting to 30ish and it feels like we need the next gen for those positions. 

Maybe I'd keep Rowe on as utility back up IF we see him as a coaching prospect.

 

Just like 23 (Vyner Moore) is no longer old to be establishing yourself, nor is 30 old either. Can be a tendency to ditch players too soon.  There are some FFP benefits of spreading their residual value over another year or longer.  I don’t think we signed Weimann or Hunt in fairness to make money on, so if they go at some point of a free at some point, I don’t think that was totally unexpected.  If you can eke another 1 or 2 years out of them that’s pretty good.

We need to be careful not to be too hasty.  As others have posted, bringing players in of similar levels, or a tad better is not cheap.  Although you’d expect there are some COVID sales coming up in January and next summer.

I’m sure the likes of Derby were expecting a promotion push....they might be looking to offload some in January to reduce their wage Bill.

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I think a lot will depend on our league position in January.

Fair to say we will be at least a Championship club next season, but with such an unknown outlook ahead, a (for example) 10k a week 3 year deal rising to 30k a week if we get to the prem might look more realistic than say, a 2 or 3 year deal on 12k a week, so we could possibly leverage that to our advantage.

If we were to get promoted then your bench is going to need to be (at the very least) full of players who can comfortably hit Championship standard, as a minimum. Take Fam for example, no real value in Jan, might get 2 or 3 mil for him. He might sign, but I will guess he will take overseas cash and enjoy one last payday. A Walsh however might be thinking... I've improved as a player, I am good enough to play top flight, so I'll sign and hope I get an opportunity.

Would guess (to quote Ashton sort of), the pond we'll be fishing in could look quite different over the summer depending on how this season goes. Could be we lose some deadwood, could be a mad scramble to sign players, could be everyone wants to re-sign and most of them we want to keep.

Just have no idea, other than Covid is a much bigger issue for a Championship club than a Premier league club.

 

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25 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Just like 23 (Vyner Moore) is no longer old to be establishing yourself, nor is 30 old either. Can be a tendency to ditch players too soon.  There are some FFP benefits of spreading their residual value over another year or longer.  I don’t think we signed Weimann or Hunt in fairness to make money on, so if they go at some point of a free at some point, I don’t think that was totally unexpected.  If you can eke another 1 or 2 years out of them that’s pretty good.

We need to be careful not to be too hasty.  As others have posted, bringing players in of similar levels, or a tad better is not cheap.  Although you’d expect there are some COVID sales coming up in January and next summer.

I’m sure the likes of Derby were expecting a promotion push....they might be looking to offload some in January to reduce their wage Bill.

Yeah and don't worry I don't think that players have an expiry date of 30, but it is also sometimes relevant. Certainly for the player it's probably the most important contract of their career. 

You know my thoughts on Baker so I won't go over it again, but if we see Towler as a potential long term solution to the left centre back vacancy we should make decisions that help usher that in, even if that means he's out on loan next season. 

Weimann's future is very uncertain. We have players ready to take his place and he doesn't know what his recovery will look like. If he recovers well we could use that year to give him a chance, but he could be well down the pecking order by then.

Paterson... I can't put my finger on how I feel about him. Injuries and age are definitely not an issue for him, but even Tinnion said on commentary that Pato's great when he's got something to prove, and if we give him a 3 year deal, will he have that hunger? He's one of our most effective and ineffective players rolled into one.

I've got no problem with Rowe, but he's not the future of this team, and more likely he's a bit part player. Liverpool do it with Milner. Offer him another year?

Diedhiou doesn't seem convinced about staying and he probably wants a relatively big money move to set his family up.

... so if you told me in 8 months, all of the above will leave City, for some reason I'd be okay with that.

 

 

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Personal opinion

  • Walsh - New deal if he's willing to sign, if he's not sell in Jan
  • Famara - Martin arguably better at the same role, can we recruit another 14 goal a season striker who'll fit us better? Probably wouldn't sign a short deal either
  • Baker - No new deal, combination of high wages and ability with the ball at his feet which I don't think matches what Holden is looking for.
  • Paterson - 2+1 deal, if we improve our squad and Pato turns into an impact sub we could still do a lot worse. Good character to have in squad too
  • Weimann - 1 year extension, see how he recovers from his injury and judge next season, now also covers a wide range of positions
  • Rowe - No new deal, promote Pring as LB/LWB cover and we have enough midfielders, if we're looking to trim the squad this seems a likely one.
  • Hunt - Short term extension, if Vyner is viewed as a CB that leaves no senior RWB/RB after Hunt, unless we view Opi Edwards (who has a 2021 expiry with a year option) as ready then we're short. Offer a 1+1 or 2+1. Recruit a RB/RWB this summer with view to signing another in a year or two depending on how Hunt is going/youth development.
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6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Out of interest, what sort of amount do you think we could get in a sell-on in future?  £2m? £3m?

Say we secure a 20% sell-on (15-20% seems to be the standard), do you think the club that buys him from us could then sell him for £8-£12m in say 18 months time after a full season of “banging in the goals”.

In a declining transfer market?

Or do you see the market going back to it’s pre-Covid values in the near future.

Fair play if you do.

A good article of the money spent last summer across Europe.  Serie A seems to have some creative accounting in player swaps!!!  That boosts their numbers.

https://www.football365.com/news/summer-2020-transfer-window-premier-league-1-26billion

Imho we missed Diedhiou’s top dollar value, which was probably last winter’s window.  Not our fault, COVID has had its affect, we couldn’t have foreseen it.
 

If we sell cheap then I am hoping we can negotiate a fairly high percentage of future profit into the deal. So then the sale after that would not have to be so huge for us to make a decent amount. 

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2 hours ago, JonDolman said:

If we sell cheap then I am hoping we can negotiate a fairly high percentage of future profit into the deal. So then the sale after that would not have to be so huge for us to make a decent amount. 

If you add a sell on though, you reduce the cash you receive up front. You can't just have both.

Tough choice whether you take £1m cash, or £750k with a 20% sell on clause. Its the same in reverse if you are buying a player.

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Market Value is one thing, but even though Fam cost a lot I think we've got our moneys worth out of him, so even if he went at a loss I wouldn't necessarily see that as money wasted by any means.  

Top goalscorer for three seasons is it, earned us a lot of points and we've probably had his best years.

If he went on a free and earned big money somewhere I wouldn't begrudge him that and would thank him for the last few seasons. He's been an absolute pro, through some tough times and seems a genuinely nice guy to boot.

Best of luck to him I say. 

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2 hours ago, Mad Cyril said:

If you add a sell on though, you reduce the cash you receive up front. You can't just have both.

Tough choice whether you take £1m cash, or £750k with a 20% sell on clause. Its the same in reverse if you are buying a player.

Yeah true. That seems to be the decision that needs to be made.

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3 hours ago, Mad Cyril said:

If you add a sell on though, you reduce the cash you receive up front. You can't just have both.

Tough choice whether you take £1m cash, or £750k with a 20% sell on clause. Its the same in reverse if you are buying a player.

 

35 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Yeah true. That seems to be the decision that needs to be made.

Of course, although it would also depend on the age of the player - better to receive cash now for a 35 year old, but allow a youngster with potential to leave for a small fee with a large % sell on clause. 

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13 hours ago, mozo said:

Funnily enough, setting Walsh aside who is a bit unknown atm, I'd be happy to say goodbye to all of those players for different reasons. I realise that's really harsh but I'm just conflicted on all of them.

Yeah, I don't see the point in renewing Weimann or Pato's contracts. Assuming they sign three-year deals, both will be in their mid-30s with little or no resale value. Walsh should be retained but I can see him being sold, and I suspect Fam is holding on until January to sign a pre-contract deal with a club abroad.

We need to keep evolving to move forward and in the unlikely event we get promoted, very few of the current squad would be good enough to compete in the PL week in, week out, IMO.

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5 hours ago, Mad Cyril said:

If you add a sell on though, you reduce the cash you receive up front. You can't just have both.

Tough choice whether you take £1m cash, or £750k with a 20% sell on clause. Its the same in reverse if you are buying a player.

That’s how I see it too.  My view of what I think is reality might be way off kilter.  But when you see Eliasson going for £2.25m in the summer window, you start to think we aren’t gonna hold many aces when it comes to Diedhiou in January, especially when he can then sign pre-contract abroad.

For me, the best financial arrangement I can see for City is that he signs a new contract.

But I certainly accept this one could go any of many directions, really tough one to call.

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