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How Tough Is This Season’s Championship?


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I’m not after an answer just saw a few pics today that I thought I’d share.

BFF3D10D-12A9-481B-B848-D39368B552F2.jpeg.4cb732fdfc8dda27815dfd9bd3180890.jpeg
In order of points ⬆️⬆️⬆️.

8F27A46E-AEB3-4D5D-AEF3-42E03100BF9C.thumb.jpeg.71d23e119ddb4ba848c8934e74780c46.jpeg

in order of season ⬆️⬆️⬆️.

Shows how well Watford, Bournemouth and Norwich are doing.

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I like this chart.  So after 12 games you get a good indication of top 2 - promotion and at least one of the relegated teams if not two.

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13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I like this chart.  So after 12 games you get a good indication of top 2 - promotion and at least one of the relegated teams if not two.

It also looks like generally 2 or 3 of the top 6 after 12 games do not see out the season in those positions - but only one has ever been relegated in the end. Would be interesting to see the averages of those columns in your final chart.

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I suppose the interesting question is whether that means the relegated teams are better or the rest of the Championship less strong?

For me, I think I'd lean toward the former.

I think Norwich were a good team whose style of football was too gung-ho for the top flight and Watford and Brighton were strong sides who had poor seasons rather than fundamentally weak teams.

It also feels that all three have retained many of their best players and the average is presumably kept up by the fact there isn't one disastrously poor side who really struggle the following season as sometimes happens...

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17 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It also looks like generally 2 or 3 of the top 6 after 12 games do not see out the season in those positions - but only one has ever been relegated in the end. Would be interesting to see the averages of those columns in your final chart.

Not mine....Peter Løhmann on twitter.

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30 minutes ago, SBB said:

These are really interesting. I like the last one.

So in the last 22 seasons, out of the teams in 3rd after 12 games... 

4 - finished in an automatic spot

8 - made the playoffs 

10 - failed 

 

Also, no team in the top half of the table after 12 matches has ever been relegated at the end of the season

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Right here we go.

Breaking the numbers down a little bit more.

Chances are based off the last 12 seasons shown in the table in the op.

1st place average finish after 12 games: 5th

However the two outliner season finishes of 06/07 (19th) and 11/12 (15th) bring this down, remove those and it's 3rd place average finish.

Chance of finishing in autos: 54.48%

Chance of finishing in the playoffs:  22.7%

Chance of playoffs or better: 77.18%

Chance of promotion from playoffs 0%!!!

Chance of promotion: 54.48%

Shockingly no team has got promoted through the playoffs from being 1st at this point!

2nd place: 3rd/4th (3.5 actual).
 

Chance of finishing in autos: 54.48%

Chance of finishing in playoffs: 22.7%

Chance of playoffs or better: 77.18%

Chance of promotion from playoffs: 20%

Chance of promotion: 59.02%

Surprising that it seems to make little difference to teams in 1st or 2nd at this stage except for two things. Firstly, 2nd place has gone on to win the league more often (10) than 1st place (6). Second, only four times has a team from 3rd place finished in the top two after twelve games!  1st and 2nd have finished in the playoffs 5 times each, only once has one team won the playoffs between them, that being Ipwisch in 00/01 being 2nd at this point and finishing 3rd.


3rd Place average finish: 6th
 

Chance of finishing in autos: 18.16%

Chance of finishing in playoffs: 36.32%

Chance of playoffs or better: 54.48%

Chance of promotion from playoffs: 37.5%

Chance of promotion: 31.78%

So at this point we've got about a 1 in 3 chance of promotion at this point over the last twelve seasons.

 

Edited by Bristol is red
Added automics numbers
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16 hours ago, mozo said:

24th position is pretty grim

Indeed. Highest finish is 15th, and that's a bit of an anomaly. 

Derby County could be in real trouble when you look at that, and consider they've scored the lowest number of goals after 12 games in Division Two history. I've sort of been assuming they'll pull it together and survive relatively comfortably.

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4 hours ago, Robin101 said:

Indeed. Highest finish is 15th, and that's a bit of an anomaly. 

Derby County could be in real trouble when you look at that, and consider they've scored the lowest number of goals after 12 games in Division Two history. I've sort of been assuming they'll pull it together and survive relatively comfortably.

Has Rooney ever been in a team that has been relegated?

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