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Are we in a "false position"?


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I want to start a topic based on an interesting (to me) idea put forward by @Port Said Redin the O'Dowda thread and not derail that one. They said that Derby were in a false position. But if they are, are we?

Our 7 wins are vs the teams currently in 8th, 16th, 18th, 20th, 21st, 23rd, 24th  Or if you want to remove Wednesdays point deduction because that's better as an indicator then it's 8th, 16th, 18th, 19th, 21st, 22nd, 24th

3 Draws vs 4th, 5th, 14th

3 Losses vs 1st, 2nd, 7th

Our wins are usually against teams lower down (makes more sense since they lost vs us)  and the worse results so far tend to be against teams that are higher up (again it's skewed by the small data sample).

I think this also explains the split in between the (sane) people who are really happy with where we are, and those that have major concerns about how the season is going to play out in the longer term. We have a lot of teams in the middle of the table to play yet. 

I'm sure some dullards will point out that we should wait until the season ends to judge (duh), of course that's the best indicator we can have. I think it's interesting to think about us in the context of a false position right now because I don't think we'll finish 3rd or higher, but I also expect us to be better than the bad teams in the league with not quite the quality to challenge the best ones. So we're both too high in the table but also with (what I consider) a fair number of points based on who we've played and where i saw us before the season started and still see us (somewhere between 6th-12th best team in the league).

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If you work it out, the average position of teams we've played is about 10.5. So our distribution of matches has been slightly leaning towards the better teams. 

However, the fact we've got 2 points from playing 4 of the top 6 suggests we struggle to beat the best sides. Personally I still don't see us finishing in the top 6 but will be very happy if I turn out to be wrong. 

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84FB90B6-9CFF-4755-ADC1-F4544F6EB7F0.thumb.jpeg.e1cef17e1f477240e12223e3df875e8a.jpeg

I always like this view, good way of looking at it.

A few weeks ago, when we were still saying the same thing, “it’s too early to judge”...I said we’d know more after we see our results against the mid-table teams....we were about to play Huddersfield who were 12th and Cardiff who were 14th.  We won them both. The point I’m making is that you could look at the positions of ourselves and our opposition at the time we played them.  You’ll get more fluctuations early season but it’s a way of looking at it.

Are we in a false position?  On paper....yes.  Do I think we can stay top 3?  Probably not.  Do I think we can make too 6?  Yes, I most certainly do.  Will we?  No idea!!!

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How do you measure if we’re in a false position, how many supporters & pundits backed us when DH was appointed? How many bookies backed us to be where we are? So that could suggest that we are in a false position if you use them as expectancy level.

When you consider the injuries & the hope that we might just get some of them back in the New Year, if we can hold on in there into January, we can then make the decision of either going with what we have or looking to bring players in from outside. And I don’t envisage us paying millions but there will be plenty of clubs struggling financially that may have to take whatever they can get & there is likely to be a lot of players not getting new contracts in the summer that may be available at a knock down fee in January rather than clubs losing players for nothing in the summer. So we could then push on even better for once in the second half of the season.

Personally, I put my money on us, so I don’t personally think we’re in a false position but given our injury problems & the actual schedule we have had with that depleted squad, I would of accepted being a fair bit lower in the league right now, so irrelevant of whether we are in a false position or not, I’m happy.

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Less of one than last season. The performances seem more convincing, overall- more durable and when we had a fuller (I say fuller as it's never been full) squad to choose from we were also adding goals and possession to our sound allowance of chances and creation. The injuries are part of the game but as more come back, we should be able to build on the foundations. It's the worst possible time to have injuries galore, if we can keep picking up points and come through it in a decent position, as they return we can really attack the 2nd half of the season.

Do I think we're the 3rd best side? Perhaps not. Do I think we should have a strong playoff challenge and play in a fairly convincing and enjoyable manner- absolutely.

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We are doing more than well concidering with so many injuries. The team we met have had more possesion, more corners and most of the time more shots on the target than us. In that way we are in false position, a table never lies many says but sometimes that not the truth. You can also see it in defensive way, our tactic is to have a strong defensive team. We have now 3 clean sheets in a row and that is a statement that we now are in third place. Dont think we will be in the first or second place when the season is finished. Norwich and Bournemouth are better than us but it can change quickly. We have mutch football in our team and a good manager so I think we can be top six. You build a team from defence, If that work the points are coming in.  I hope for first or second place for our team but the odds for that

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What a negative thread, but very typical of the thinking on here as to the mindset of many OTIBers. With only 13 matches played the OP considers all our losses were against the top teams in the division, hardly a surprise given any 3 points at this stage will promote a jump of several places. But the fact we lost to Muff Norwich should not be gut wrenching, Boro was the biggest and only real surprise. 

Again some have to examine our worth constantly along with individual players, but better to view the sum of the parts of what we have, that is a team that is together without big egos managed by a down to Earth guy ...not perhaps the most exciting model, but proving to be very effective. 

Worry If we reach the top flight, until then enjoy the ride.

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The only team in a false position is Sheffield Wednesday.

I think that highest points score in third place in recent times was 88 points.  So 89 would likely get you promoted this season.  So you need to win 30 matches.  if you lost 16 matches against 8 of the top 10 and won the rest it would still be highly likely that you were promoted automatically. You don’t get refused promotion on the basis of individual results.

Should the thread be renamed “Are Norwich in a false position because they lost to Derby”

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At the start of the season had anyone suggested that we'd hold a strong Watford team and look the better team in the second half, we'd have bitten their hands off.

If they then suggested we'd do it with a back three of Moore, Vyner and Rowe and a midfield of Pato, COD and Nagy I suspect we'd think they were joking. 

If they said the result would take us 3rd and that we'd only conceded 1 goal in the last 4 we'd find it hard to believe. 

If they told us we'd done it under Rookie boss DH we'd probably check it was not April 1.

Every team deserves to be where they are, because they have secured the results that put them there, whether that be us or WRDC -, no points are awardedfor

If we lose the next 4 and drop down the table we will still deserve to be where we are awarded for artistic merit or bad luck and points are it deducted for good luck. 

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I have supported City for seventy one years and rarely are we ever in the correct position in the league that reflects our performances.

Exceptional years, like Cott's Champions or AD's 1976 promotion winners when our league placing was correct, are very rare. So sit back all City fans and enjoy the status even if the entertainmant value is not up to scratch.

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3 hours ago, Garland-sweden said:

We are doing more than well concidering with so many injuries. The team we met have had more possesion, more corners and most of the time more shots on the target than us. In that way we are in false position, a table never lies many says but sometimes that not the truth. You can also see it in defensive way, our tactic is to have a strong defensive team. We have now 3 clean sheets in a row and that is a statement that we now are in third place. Dont think we will be in the first or second place when the season is finished. Norwich and Bournemouth are better than us but it can change quickly. We have mutch football in our team and a good manager so I think we can be top six. You build a team from defence, If that work the points are coming in.  I hope for first or second place for our team but the odds for that

From a very basic set of averages we might concede more shots, but we concede less shots on target (3.61 City / 3.15 Oppo).

We can also see that the xG of our opponents chances is less too.

In summary we shoot more efficiently and effectively.

The other thing is the +5 GD....typically we lose games by more goals than we win games.  Those couple of 2-0s at the start of the season helped.

1B2123C2-C6A2-4B50-AEE6-F1F50485AB5A.thumb.jpeg.50eafa0c4d2181ae24e4c12d3e8a6b00.jpeg

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7 hours ago, Davefevs said:

84FB90B6-9CFF-4755-ADC1-F4544F6EB7F0.thumb.jpeg.e1cef17e1f477240e12223e3df875e8a.jpeg

I always like this view, good way of looking at it.

A few weeks ago, when we were still saying the same thing, “it’s too early to judge”...I said we’d know more after we see our results against the mid-table teams....we were about to play Huddersfield who were 12th and Cardiff who were 14th.  We won them both. The point I’m making is that you could look at the positions of ourselves and our opposition at the time we played them.  You’ll get more fluctuations early season but it’s a way of looking at it.

Are we in a false position?  On paper....yes.  Do I think we can stay top 3?  Probably not.  Do I think we can make too 6?  Yes, I most certainly do.  Will we?  No idea!!!

I like that table - is that free to access?

I’d be interested to see how we compare to our top 6-8 rivals in terms of their results against other top 6-8 teams?

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Interesting question and I prefer to look at it a slightly different way:

Is our position in the table accurately reflected in the way we’ve played in our games? I can only come to the conclusion that it’s too high. We haven’t really dominated teams in a way you’d expect the third best team to do. We’ve been fairly fortunate in terms of results. 

That being said, they say the best teams find a way to win when they haven’t played well, but I feel we’re doing this a little too regularly for my liking. 

Then I suppose you’ve got to consider our injuries which have been nothing short of horrendous. 

I think we’ve done well to be as competitive as we have, but as for false position, I’d say yes. Definitely. 

If we can just stay within touching distance of the best teams, then surely things can only get better when our best midfielders and defenders return to fitness. 

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1 hour ago, Blackbird1 said:

What a negative thread, but very typical of the thinking on here as to the mindset of many OTIBers. With only 13 matches played the OP considers all our losses were against the top teams in the division, hardly a surprise given any 3 points at this stage will promote a jump of several places. (I make that point myself) But the fact we lost to Muff Norwich should not be gut wrenching, Boro was the biggest and only real surprise. 

Again some have to examine our worth constantly along with individual players, but better to view the sum of the parts of what we have, that is a team that is together without big egos managed by a down to Earth guy ...not perhaps the most exciting model, but proving to be very effective. 

Worry If we reach the top flight, until then enjoy the ride.

So this is really interesting. You've taken it as a negative when all it's doing is asking a question. I'm interested in what people think by the term "false position", because we all understand it and there's a lot of personal interpretation of the term or if they even believe in it as some state they don't.

So it's really interesting to me, you've interpreted the term "false position", as a criticism or an attack on the team. Says a lot about your mindset as a supporter to me and how you view other supporters.

For me, MY personal ideas around the phrase or interpretation is, that we're currently third, so do I think we're the third best team in the league? Do I think we'll end up there at the end of the season? Which definitely isn't an attack or a criticism.

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I think the term “false position” is misleading as teams are where they are. A better way to look at is to consider if the current position is sustainable, likely to improve or get worse. With the fixture congestion plus all the injuries and illnesses affecting every team this is impossible to predict 

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5 minutes ago, Robbored said:

I can’t see why it’s useful to analyse the position of where City are after 13 games............:dunno:

We are where are......and unless you’re a Swindon Town fan, nothing is won in November.

 

10 hours ago, Prinny said:

I'm sure some dullards will point out that we should wait until the season ends to judge (duh), of course that's the best indicator we can have.

zzz

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19 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

I like that table - is that free to access?

I’d be interested to see how we compare to our top 6-8 rivals in terms of their results against other top 6-8 teams?

Whoscored.com....free.

12 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Interesting question and I prefer to look at it a slightly different way:

Is our position in the table accurately reflected in the way we’ve played in our games? I can only come to the conclusion that it’s too high. We haven’t really dominated teams in a way you’d expect the third best team to do. We’ve been fairly fortunate in terms of results. 

That being said, they say the best teams find a way to win when they haven’t played well, but I feel we’re doing this a little too regularly for my liking. 

Then I suppose you’ve got to consider our injuries which have been nothing short of horrendous. 

I think we’ve done well to be as competitive as we have, but as for false position, I’d say yes. Definitely. 

If we can just stay within touching distance of the best teams, then surely things can only get better when our best midfielders and defenders return to fitness. 

Very few games are dominated by one team, and what do we mean by dominated?  Having lots of possession? That’s not really dominance.  Creating chance after chance, constantly knocking on the door?  Probably a good indication.

Who’ve dominated us this season?

I’d honestly say nobody.  Norwich didn’t.  They were the better side undoubtedly but we gave them a good game, but unfortunately gifted them a two goal head start.  Bournemouth didn’t.  We had the better of the first half, but they were much better second period.  So that’s the top two, and they didn’t dominate us imho.

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22 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Interesting question and I prefer to look at it a slightly different way:

Is our position in the table accurately reflected in the way we’ve played in our games? I can only come to the conclusion that it’s too high. We haven’t really dominated teams in a way you’d expect the third best team to do. We’ve been fairly fortunate in terms of results. 

That being said, they say the best teams find a way to win when they haven’t played well, but I feel we’re doing this a little too regularly for my liking. 

Then I suppose you’ve got to consider our injuries which have been nothing short of horrendous. 

I think we’ve done well to be as competitive as we have, but as for false position, I’d say yes. Definitely. 

If we can just stay within touching distance of the best teams, then surely things can only get better when our best midfielders and defenders return to fitness. 

I think that kind of assumes a league like Scotland where a couple of standout teams thoroughly dominate the rest. In the EFL I'm not sure that even the top team regularly dominates the others. Indeed, if they did, you would expect them to be miles ahead of where they are now. If you assume there isn't much to choose between most of the teams, then you don't need to be regularly dominating games to be in the top three.

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I don't think we are in a false position myself. We have done very well considering the injuries we have had with our defence.

Perhaps we have gained a reputation for "falling away" towards the end of the season, and people are expecting the same again, thus making the current position of 3rd "false" ?

Jobi McAnuff confirmed this on Sky during the Watford match. He was asked whether Watford and ourselves would finish top 6.

His answer was "Watford definitely, Bristol City are likely to fall away, as they have before".

I think this opinion may be driving the thought that we are in a false position now, compared to where people expect us to finish.

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The other angle on this that before the season beating Derby, Forest and Cardiff would be seen as a highly impressive feat. Now, these games have retrospectively been downgraded by their respective results so far.

Funny old game.

My personal take is that I am focussed on 6th. Are we on track for that? Yes, with a couple of extra points in the bag. Because 3rd still isn't a realistic goal for me, I'll worry about 6th and shift my goals if we're still 3rd in March.

 

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My view is we are probably currently slightly higher in the league than expected & whilst our performances haven’t been exactly free flowing, when you take into account a brutal schedule & large list of absentees, we are doing excellently.

I actually thought for the first time in midweek that we are playing like an away side, even at home & (I promise this isn’t a criticism) a lot like a Warnock side, low possession %, slowing the game down at every opportunity & conserving energy.

Two final obvious points, the strategy surely has to be to look to stay in contention until the likes of Baker & Williams return, (would be good if Kalas was a short term absence, too) we are currently well stocked with strikers so getting senior players back in other positions is crucial.

Lastly, it is a very even league, but the sides who were in The Prem last season (all in the top 5) have a huge advantage & we are doing excellently to keep pace so far. 

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