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Are we in a "false position"?


Prinny

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1 hour ago, Tipps69 said:

Funny you should say this because I thought exactly the same & I was going to say similar elsewhere but my comparison was going to be with LJ from last season but I thought that maybe a little unfair considering the injuries & schedule that we are now facing.

It feels like this is more of a necessity this season rather than it felt more like a choice through LJ last season.

I thought we changed initially v Huddersfield.  Holden came out after the game and said that we gifted too many chances to Norwich early on, and that we needed to stay in games.  Hunt came out and said the other night that the early goals conceded against Norwich hurt the players and they’ve reacted very well since.

I think it is definitely down to necessity....a realisation that we are running on bare bones, the fixture list is condensed and punishing and finally we are strong enough / disciplined enough to defend.  In the past you wouldn’t necessarily back us to keep a clean sheet.

1 hour ago, Tipps69 said:

Have you been drinking Fevs? Brunt? Come on now, I struggle to trust him to come off the bench for the last 10 minutes let alone start a game.

I started to do some more work on my points gained / lost model last night.  I have started to break each player down into their starting position and sub, so I can now say who the super-subs are and who the influential starters are.  Haven’t got it all working yet, but Kalas as a sub is not good, Brunt is!

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1 hour ago, Robbored said:

The optimist will point out that City are doing pretty well despite having lengthy injured list. Weimann, Walsh, Williams and Bakinson all absent from the engine room and when they’re available again Deano will have a selection headache - made easier I guess by rotating the players as he does with the strikers,

Things certainly seem positive for the upcoming months. 

I would say that DH has had a selection headache most weeks this season, what with injuries and covid limiting his options. 

Having said that, I take your point, in that, if the current team continue to get results, what will he do when players we perceive to be first choice become available? 

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I'm another who doesn't believe in false positions. You are where you are in the league due to results, which in terms of promotion or relegation is the only thing that matters. We know we all want to see wins as a result of sparkling performances, but performance doesn't equal points. Every week across the leagues a team will outplay the opposition but still lose the game, look at Norwich v Derby. Equally every supporter in the land will look at his teams performances and think we should have won/drawn that game or were lucky to pick up points in another. A snapshot of our season makes me think we should have won at Barnsley, got draws against Boro and Bournemouth but we were lucky to be on the right side of a dodgy penalty decision against Swansea. You can only beat what's before you so we are where we are on merit. There's no reason to suggest we won't stay in our position. If we can get our so-called better players back we could improve, while who's to say other 'better' teams won't suffer injuries or a loss in form. I'm no Nostradamus so i don't predict  the future, I just enjoy the ride. 

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8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I started to do some more work on my points gained / lost model last night.  I have started to break each player down into their starting position and sub, so I can now say who the super-subs are and who the influential starters are.  Haven’t got it all working yet, but Kalas as a sub is not good, Brunt is!

I guess this just goes to show that stats do lie :whistle2:

I hope he’s able to control his bowels better than he can a football.

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4 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

I have supported City for seventy one years and rarely are we ever in the correct position in the league that reflects our performances.

Exceptional years, like Cott's Champions or AD's 1976 promotion winners when our league placing was correct, are very rare. So sit back all City fans and enjoy the status even if the entertainmant value is not up to scratch.

Great post , and so true

 

FWIW

I think our results and league position are better than most would have predicted Pre season looking at others squads , taking into account the unknown re Dean and coaches etc etc 

But since then

There is a lot to like about Deans methods and clear work showing of him and the coaching team

some young players have emerged and developed far more than most would have expected , both in terms of numbers and individual development (A positive thing to have come from the crazy injury setbacks)

Watching most of the Championship Games and I’ve been surprised by the overall sameness and lack of real standout sides or individuals

Weve played an obvious 3 prospects in Norwich , Bournemouth and Watford and although the points tally isn’t great we’ve not disgraced ourselves at all and had very positive periods if each of those games

 

So .... not sure what a false position is .... but looking ahead we have a squad that competes with most if not all (Certainly with some injuries sorted) , The players are clearly buying in and Dean & Co have developed a good squad and team spirit with healthy competition for places ...

You have to say we can certainly be in the mix for the top six , with top 2 maybe a step too much

FWIW I smell something building here under DH , the initial foundations are looking promising

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As said above, I believe we're punching above our weight. This is based on some of the facts that we have in front of us, as also discussed above; injuries; COVID; rookie coach etc.

We have a right to be where we are, because we've won those points.

Are we lucky?

No.

I think @Davefevs shared some heatmaps of where we're making the opposition play. We aren't letting teams play in the danger areas of the pitch. We're happy to be organised and frustrate teams - letting them play in areas where they can't hurt us. We're then in a position to hit them hard later on in games when they tire. 

It might be a bit dull, but it is effective (for now).

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16 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

Is this because we feel more comfortable with Kalas for 90 minutes and Brunt is safer being given less (and less) time ? ?

No it just means in a very small sample size of two sub appearances....Kalas came on with us drawing at Boro and winning at Barnsley, and we conceded with him on the pitch to lose v Boro and draw v Barnsley.

Both goals conceded were other player mistakes.

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35 minutes ago, Blackbird1 said:

OK! My mindset on OTIB generally is one of unfair criticism levelled at the players and the quality of football we display, your false position theory question seemed to me very much in that mould.

You have to make multiple logical leaps to come to that conclusion. I don't mention any player, or the quality of football. At no point in the OP do i express dissatisfaction or criticism of the team or players.  I ask a question, and point to a possible reason as to why someone might consider us to be in a "false position". 

Considering the amount of games played and injuries sustained I think we can view this seasons effort as superb.

Agree.

However the match day comments are negative in the extreme, and it seems that the nay sayer's are outnumbering the others. You final question about being third ...and do 'we' think we will end up there at the end of the season is the question you need to answer.

I mean I do in the OP. "I don't think we'll finish 3rd or higher".

So perhaps you might think we will end up 1st or second?

"I don't think we'll finish 3rd or higher"

I mean why not?

"Our 7 wins are vs the teams currently in 8th, 16th, 18th, 20th, 21st, 23rd, 24th  Or if you want to remove Wednesdays point deduction because that's better as an indicator then it's 8th, 16th, 18th, 19th, 21st, 22nd, 24th

3 Draws vs 4th, 5th, 14th

3 Losses vs 1st, 2nd, 7th

Our wins are usually against teams lower down (makes more sense since they lost vs us)  and the worse results so far tend to be against teams that are higher up (again it's skewed by the small data sample)."

after all with a level of support that would be a given, it's not beyond the realms of possible,  but reading the posts matchday an alien might think we were staving off relegation. I do believe reading back you are very much the glass half empty type, happy to be proved wrong though.

The match day threads are a snapshot of individual moments and emotions. It's a mistake IMO to judge general opinions based on that. If I take you by your posts on this thread like I have for the purpose of the example, you're pretty negative, about the forum, about discussions, about exploring ideas and concepts. Social media is inherently "negative" as we engage with and remember things we disagree with more. We will like if we like, and stop to say why we disagree on forums where there is no quick option to dislike.

Here are your posts from the Watford match day thread btw

"Who the frig are you? And what are you doing on OTIB, you drip misery and cynicism ...Watford have a Prem set up we don't and have a depleted squad, give it a rest."

"Good ..see ya!"

"Just City..you?"

"No one should have been surprised if we lost, but again we have a clean sheet, and a point, happy with that. The big loser tonight was this place...again, it seems to be getting worse, before the kick off we were going to lose, and as the game drew on the attention was drawn to how poor the players are. Same old same old from the moaning about streams buffering and or volume and then the same old usual suspects setting the tone. If you are not City Basso and the rest, just leave the support to the few on here that do actually care. You know what has to be done Mods but I won't hold my breath."

 

And

"Watford have been poor in front of Goal all season, in many ways they have been a mirror image of ourselves, no surprise in this 0..0"

Maybe you should be the change you want to see? You're negative on that thread, yet complain about the negativity on that thread. Instead of fighting with fellow supporters, why not praise good passes or moves?

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1 hour ago, Red7 said:

Indeed. Where does it end?
Stripped down to the basics, you get 3 points for winning a game, 1 point for drawing a game, 0 for losing a game.
You may win and not deserve to on the balance of play, you may lose and not deserve to. All immaterial in the record books.

Don’t forget all those tournaments that Germany won falsely ?

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After 13 games the league table will reflect a fair comparison of how teams have done. Not as good as the one after 23 games or 46 games but as a point of time its where we are.

So trying to not be to boring here are my comments.

City, have seven first teamers out. They have played well at times and been under pressure a lot. Our players are looking mostly impressive individually and we always look to have a goal in us. (Luckily we don’t have an injury crisis among the forwards) Thus is our squad in a false position? definitely not, is our makeshift team in a false position (which seems to be the premise here) no. They have stuck to the game plan and reaped the reward of a solid no nonsense approach.

I’m a fairly regular visitor to the Derby forum, as they seem to be the comparison club, and watched them three times this season. The huge difference between them and us now, was the difference reversed in large parts last season. The players had/have little confidence in the manager/set up. Despite having good players, there is an excuse or a lapse/lack of confidence that inevitably leads to missing chances and leaking cheap goals. If they can find themselves a decent manager they will turn it around and not get relegated...So the difference defined between the two clubs could be described as The Management

As for all the other clubs in between. The position of any club after any large tranche of games will come down to ability throughout the squad, injuries and efficient game plan. Luck can go either way , but to use the tired old adage will even itself out. 

With a wrath of games coming and a barebones squad, if we lose a few its going to be easy to say, oh we were in a false position after 13 games. What these boys need is reinforcements as tired legs are going to become a factor, particularly if we get a couple of decisions go against us. (We are all hoping for Kalas and Bakinson soon). But the upside is if we keep getting points and winning games tiredness is replaced with adrenaline. Semenyo has looked different gravy recently and Wells/Martin are chomping at the bit to get on as is FD. So in summary anything can happen for the next 13, our squad is not in a false position, hopefully we can get a few more fit!

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4 hours ago, GrahamC said:

On the surface that is the case but since October 7th Nagy has also played in 7 internationals for Hungary as well. He has started virtually all of them and in the last break, played in every minute (bar 6) of all three.

This doesn’t take into account the travelling to and from, either, though fortunately all 3 were at least played in Hungary.

He looks incredibly fit & was apparently at the top of the pre season tests but we badly need Bakinson back & (maybe in time Williams?) to give him a break.

Yep superhuman fitness at the mo. I guess what I’m saying with him is that until he got in our team his workload was relatively (internationals) light, so may be why (despite workload now) he still looks ok.

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1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

No it just means in a very small sample size of two sub appearances....Kalas came on with us drawing at Boro and winning at Barnsley, and we conceded with him on the pitch to lose v Boro and draw v Barnsley.

Both goals conceded were other player mistakes.

While my post was very tongue in cheek, it does beg a question. Does the position of the sub affect the mindset?
I'm not a lover of throwing extra CB's on, I know every game is different but it tends to show intent when e are already a side that seems to go deeper and deeper if we are winning a tight game. I guess there are exceptions, but the best Johnson sub I recall (probably because it worked) was bringing on forwards to run the oppositions defence , it turned out one of the easiest ends of a game I can remember. 

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1 hour ago, REDOXO said:

With a wrath of games coming and a barebones squad, if we lose a few its going to be easy to say, oh we were in a false position after 13 games. What these boys need is reinforcements as tired legs are going to become a factor, particularly if we get a couple of decisions go against us. (We are all hoping for Kalas and Bakinson soon). But the upside is if we keep getting points and winning games tiredness is replaced with adrenaline. Semenyo has looked different gravy recently and Wells/Martin are chomping at the bit to get on as is FD. So in summary anything can happen for the next 13, our squad is not in a false position, hopefully we can get a few more fit!

Winning teams don’t seem to feel tiredness.  As you say, easy to make excuses and players to use them as they drop their levels.

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

While my post was very tongue in cheek, it does beg a question. Does the position of the sub affect the mindset?
I'm not a lover of throwing extra CB's on, I know every game is different but it tends to show intent when e are already a side that seems to go deeper and deeper if we are winning a tight game. I guess there are exceptions, but the best Johnson sub I recall (probably because it worked) was bringing on forwards to run the oppositions defence , it turned out one of the easiest ends of a game I can remember. 

I think we can banish the idea re Boro as it was a direct replacement for the injured Mawson.

But Barnsley will always be one you look back at and think was it the right thing.

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We went from 352 to 361 (541), but we repelled Barnsley fairly easily in the last 10-15 minutes and it was only a crazy penalty given away that cost us 2pts.  Tinnion on Robinstv was saying how in control we looked.  We should’ve scored on the counter (same as Forest) and you could argue Wells playing the 90 might give you that clinical finish to ward off any fight back.  O’Dowda had broken away a couple of times, got hacked down so I don’t think it was a case of sitting in, just virtue of the fact Barnsley had pushed another player or two forward also.  You win some you lose some.

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We can only beat what's in front of us. If we were to analyze, we have lost to two teams who have dropped down from the prem and sit in 1st and 2nd. 

Norwich dominated the game, and I would have expected nothing less when you look at the strength of their squad. We were heading for a draw against Bournemouth before they scored late on. 

The Middlesbrough game didn't warrant anything in terms of performance, but we gifted them a goal in a very drab game. 

In terms of 'false position' I would argue that our some of the opposition we have faced are in a 'false position' themselves. The Forest squad is filled with talent that hasn't performed for whatever reason this season. Derby also have a talented squad but maybe didn't recruit well in the summer after losing Lowe and Bogle. however, I still wouldn't have expected to see them in the position they currently are. And the Wednesday points deduction didn't set them on course for the best start to a season. 

Draws against Swansea and Watford are good points to take from those games. And we were seconds away from taking 3 points away to Barnsley. 

It's a very strong start to the season. I would have been delighted if offered this at the start of the season. The next few games are going to be interesting and could define our season. Heading into the new year we could be in a fantastic position if we can continue recent form. 

The league is weak this year. No standout teams, and a crazy schedule so anything can happen. 

 

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10 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Whoscored.com....free.

Very few games are dominated by one team, and what do we mean by dominated?  Having lots of possession? That’s not really dominance.  Creating chance after chance, constantly knocking on the door?  Probably a good indication.

Who’ve dominated us this season?

I’d honestly say nobody.  Norwich didn’t.  They were the better side undoubtedly but we gave them a good game, but unfortunately gifted them a two goal head start.  Bournemouth didn’t.  We had the better of the first half, but they were much better second period.  So that’s the top two, and they didn’t dominate us imho.

Indeed, we gave them not only the first two but conceded at terrible times- early and then right on halftime!

Even then, penalty goes in different game- hit the post too. Better side for sure but frustrating how much we helped them in a sense, how they didn't have to work too hard for their goals- well taken through they were.

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Just think it's a very bizarre season especially this situation with no crowds,I keep thinking would Holden be under more pressure with crowds back? Would the younger lads feel the pressure of matchdays a little more and currently playing with freedom? Don't think anyone can complain being third with the amount out injured and a first time head coach but will it last I'm not sure it's hard to say if the current situation is playing it's part. 

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7 hours ago, Prinny said:

The match day threads are a snapshot of individual moments and emotions. It's a mistake IMO to judge general opinions based on that. If I take you by your posts on this thread like I have for the purpose of the example, you're pretty negative, about the forum, about discussions, about exploring ideas and concepts. Social media is inherently "negative" as we engage with and remember things we disagree with more. We will like if we like, and stop to say why we disagree on forums where there is no quick option to dislike.

Here are your posts from the Watford match day thread btw

"Who the frig are you? And what are you doing on OTIB, you drip misery and cynicism ...Watford have a Prem set up we don't and have a depleted squad, give it a rest."

"Good ..see ya!"

"Just City..you?"

"No one should have been surprised if we lost, but again we have a clean sheet, and a point, happy with that. The big loser tonight was this place...again, it seems to be getting worse, before the kick off we were going to lose, and as the game drew on the attention was drawn to how poor the players are. Same old same old from the moaning about streams buffering and or volume and then the same old usual suspects setting the tone. If you are not City Basso and the rest, just leave the support to the few on here that do actually care. You know what has to be done Mods but I won't hold my breath."

 

And

"Watford have been poor in front of Goal all season, in many ways they have been a mirror image of ourselves, no surprise in this 0..0"

Maybe you should be the change you want to see? You're negative on that thread, yet complain about the negativity on that thread. Instead of fighting with fellow supporters, why not praise good passes or moves?

The fighting is the 'supporters' that continually berate the players and performances on here, it really is a mystery that there is so much negativity around the place given out position My reaction to the Watford game is at least factual. they (Watford) have a strong squad, and yet are not free scoring, and yet have shut outs, as we do, if we are not free scoring close the back door, which is exactly what we have done, the three clean sheets in a row supports that. Football is not just about scoring freely as you will know, defending is the way good teams are built on. 

Anyway from the replies you have got it seems your intent has not been fulfilled in a mass moan rather the opposite, which is refreshing and shows a good insight into the game.

Perhaps all the moaners save it for kick off?

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8 minutes ago, San Fran City said:

The worry is we lack that but of swagger. We are a superbly coached and well drilled side but we rarely blow teams away, this season in particular. Don’t get me wrong, I think we are probably punching in terms of current position, but with half a team to come back in who knows. 

Exactly what I was alluding too, OK having swagger if you are losing 3-4 eh? 

Defending and winning 1-0 is rarely exciting or good on the eye to the casual observer, for me it is vital.

 

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23 minutes ago, Blackbird1 said:

Exactly what I was alluding too, OK having swagger if you are losing 3-4 eh? 

Defending and winning 1-0 is rarely exciting or good on the eye to the casual observer, for me it is vital.

 

So true

The last time we reached the top level we did it exactly this way - close squad / team , working hard , showing character and grinding out results , with a decent side but without ‘superstars’

We rarely put sides away with a swagger

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On 27/11/2020 at 21:08, Blackbird1 said:

Exactly what I was alluding too, OK having swagger if you are losing 3-4 eh? 

Defending and winning 1-0 is rarely exciting or good on the eye to the casual observer, for me it is vital.

 

Or winning 4-3. As I said, I hugely admire how we are grinding it out at this stage, but I would say that our current position is definitely false based on performances. Reading matched us today, then their swagger won the game. They’ve also lost heavily and consecutively so far this season as I think you allude to. I would predict it’s easier to get there with swag over 46 contests, rather than being tight and looking to nick it. 

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