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Reading – Sat 28th November 12:30 – What Can We Expect?


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Reading – Sat 28th November 12:30 – What Can We Expect?

City travel up the M4 on Saturday to Reading in one of their shorter away trips this season.  Having played on Wednesday night and kick-off having been brought forward to lunchtime for Sky, then it is a bonus that they only can travel on Saturday morning.  Every day they can spend preparing at Failand is a bonus with the punishing schedule ahead.  Every hour the players can avoid on a coach is no bad thing either.  

Midweek saw both sides draw, City at home to Watford 0-0 to halt their winning run, Reading 1-1 at Millwall to end their losing sequence.  We know how big a part momentum can play and Reading will be hopeful that they can start another unbeaten run having come from behind.

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Pic 1 - Championship Table ahead of this weekend's fixtures [BBC Sport]

Who’s the boss:

For the second game running City come face to face with a Yugoslav born ex-Partizan player in the opposition dugout.  Reading’s boss is Veljko Paunovic.  Having progressed through the youth ranks at Partizan he moved to Atletico Madrid after one season.  A loan at Marbella was followed by progression to Atletico’s B Team and over a 7 year stay in the capital he was loaned to Mallorca twice and Oviedo.  Continuing his holiday destination career, he then moved to Tenerife before transfers to Hannover 96, Getafe, Rubin Kazan, Almeria and back to Partizan before heading across the Atlantic to end his career at Philadelphia after a trial New York Red Bull.  He amassed over 350 appearances and 76 goals as well as 2 caps and 1 goal for Serbia and Montenegro.

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Pic 2 – Paunovic wins his first Manager of the Month award, and with it comes the “curse”!

After retirement from playing, he earned his UEFA PRO license and Sporting Director degree and coupled with his years spent in Spain he became the Champions League Analyst for the Royal Spanish Football Federation.  Alongside this role he started working with Serbia’s age-group teams that saw him win the u20 World Cup.  Perhaps Paunovic and Simpson will be parading their medals at the Madejski on Saturday?  Success led him to Chicago Fire in the MLS where he took them to the play-offs before he left after 4 years in November 2019.  Paunovic replaced self-appointed Mark Bowen at the end of August.

Recruitment:

Reading seem to be on an FFP tightrope having utilised the get out jail free card of selling their Stadium.  They were under a soft embargo in the summer of 2019 but have cleared a fair chunk of the wage bill over this summer to stay compliant whilst only bringing in one player for a fee.

Players in:

§  Ovie Ejaria – Liverpool (£3.5m)

§  Josh Laurent – Shrewsbury (Free)

§  Lewis Gibson – Everton (Loan)

§  Alfa Semedo – Benfica (Loan)

§  Tomas Esteves – Porto (Loan)

Players out: 

§  Mo Barrow – Jeonbuk Motors (South Korea) (£1.4m)

§  Danny Loader – Porto B (Free)

§  Tyler Blackett – Nottingham Forest (Free)

§  Vito Mannone – Monaco (Free)

§  Charlie Adam – Dundee (Free)

§  Jordan Holsgrove – Celta Vigo B (Free)

§  Chris Gunter – Charlton (Free)

§  Adrian Popa – FC Voluntari (Rumania) (Free)

§  Marc McNulty – Dundee Utd (Loan)

§  Jordan Obita – Released

§  Gareth McCleary – Released

Perhaps their best business was hanging onto Jon Swift who had a host of clubs enquiring after his services.  Having rebuffed those offers Swift suffered a serious hamstring injury two games into the season and is out for at least three months.

Formation / System

Paunovic has played a back four in most games this season predominantly in a 4231 formation, but he will deviate depending on personnel and game state.

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Pic 3 - Reading's line-up for Millwall on Wednesday [Wyscout]

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Pic 4 - Reading's subs and team shape retain the 4231 versus Millwall

With Reading trailing to a first half injury time goal from Jed Wallace, Semedo (30) is replaced by Michael Olise (7).   Joao got them back level before another sub In injury time saw ex-City player Sam Baldock (9) come on for Yakou Meite (11) and the attacking midfield three was shuffled around.

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Pic 5 - Reading's 4231 versus Bournemouth [Wyscout]

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Pic 6 - Paunovic's use of subs and system(s) [Wyscout]

In the defeat at Bournemouth, Reading looked good value for their 2-0 half-time lead but two goals in three minutes before the hour led to changes.  Estevez and Aluko were replaced by Holmes and Olise and just before Bournemouth took the lead Ejaria was withdrawn for Meite.  Finally, ex-City striker Baldock came on for Semedo and a switch to 442 in an attempt to rescue the game.

How do they play:

The 4231 is founded on a good spine.  Liam Moore and Michael Morrison at centre-back, one to attack the ball, one to sit off and cover.  In front of them they have a very hardworking three of Josh Laurent, Andy Rinomhota and Alfa Semedo.  They seem to complement each other well, and although their pass maps seem to highlight preferences, e.g., Rinomhota right, Laurent left and Semedo advanced, they cover each other well and are happy in each other space(s) too.

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Pic 7 - Josh Laurent's season heatmap [Wyscout]

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Pic 8 - Andy Rinomhota's season heatmap [Wyscout]

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Pic 9 - Alfa Semedo's season heatmap [Wyscout]

Ahead of them Reading have the Championship’s third leading scorer, Lucas Joao with 8 goals (inc. 2 penalties) and 3 assists.  He’s achieved this with an xG (Expected Goals) of just 5.23 from 25 shots of which 65% are on target.

Completing the forward threat from wider positions comes the likes of Sone Aluko, Ovie Ejaria, Yacou Meite and Michael Olise, who between them have chipped in 9 more goals.

Passing Style: 

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Pic 10 - Passing Style chart from @SwansAnalytics

In the chart above (thanks to @SwansAnalytics) we can see that Reading are one of the better teams at keeping the ball, making more passes per possession phase than most teams.  They also play very few long balls in comparison too.  With the likes of Ejaria and Aluko very happy to gain ground with the ball at their feet and Laurent purposeful when driving forward they’ve little need to launch the ball from the back.

They make 389 passes per 90 at 84% accuracy compared to a Championship average of 361 / 79% with City recently dropping from above to just below the median at 362 / 79%.  

However, making lots of passes doesn’t tell the whole story.  On Wednesday Reading added 473 passes at 87% to that but created just 7 chances.  For context, Derby made 602 passes at 85% on Saturday and fashioned very few chances too.  Most of their passing was in front of City’s midfield and of little threat.  We’ve seen excellent organisation from the Robins over the past few games as they’ve tweaked their system to press less heavily in light of injuries and little training due to Covid.  Derby’s best chance (0.22 in terms of xG) was Buchanan’s snapshot under pressure following a set-piece.  Waghorn’s half-volley on 6 minutes registered just 0.06 xG.

Looking back at Reading we see that they are seriously outperforming their xG scoring 1.58 goals per game (19 goals) against xG of 0.94 per game.  They owe much of this to Joao’s efficiency.  At the other end of the pitch, having only conceded 3 goals (6.34 xG Conceded) in their first 8 games, Reading then conceded 13 (6.91 xG Conceded) in their next 4.  Regression to mean and then beyond it in some style in their own goal!

Reading Early 2020/21 In A Nutshell:

Watching Reading this season I’ve been impressed with some of the simplicity of their play and the execution.  I like that they make the pass when it’s on, not delaying whilst they look around for other options.  They are quite fluid in the middle part of the pitch and I think they break the lines effectively.

Although not a heavy pressing side, they do trigger it well when required, and I think this goes back to the three midfielders understanding each other’s position on the pitch.

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Pic 11 - Reading win the ball back versus Bournemouth

Above we can see Rinomhota pounce on a loose touch from Solanke under pressure from Laurent to his side and Semedo behind.

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Pic 12 - Reading's one-touch passing rips Bournemouth apart

Rinomhota pops a pass off to Laurent who plays it first time to Ejaria who clips it to Semedo.  Ejaria is on the move and there is a lovely gap opening up in front of Bournemouth’s back four.  Semedo has spotted the run too and an opportunity for a one-two.

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Pic 13 - Ejaria on the move

Semedo lays a nice ball into Ejaria’s path.  Ejaria isn’t on the ball yet but with Joao dragging Kelly out of position, Aluko is already “on his bike” making a run into the gap.

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Pic 14 - Bish, Bash, Bosh – Goal

Ejaria spots the run, slides the ball into the hole and Aluko finishes the job.  I loved the proactive run from Aluko, but also the simplicity of the one touch execution from Rinomhota, Laurent, Ejaria and Semedo before Ejaria gets it back and assists Aluko.  Easy to be critical of Bournemouth, but when a team clicks into gear like this there is little to stop them.

From a defensive point of view, we see the importance of Liam Moore in their early run of results.  He has developed an excellent partnership with Michael Morrison.

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Pic 15 - Liam Moore covers the danger area versus Rotherham

Liam Moore takes up an excellent position covering the run towards the near post of Michael Smith who has stolen half a yard on Morrison.  The cross is hit into this area and Moore wins a great header with Smith all over him.

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Pic 16 - Moore clears off the line

Ever alert, Moore re-positions himself on the goal-line and George Hirst’s goal-bound shot is cleared to safety.  This type of defending typified Reading’s opening games of the season as they romped to the top of the Championship.  Moore’s injury meant a change at the back and unsettled them in their poor run.  He was back for Bournemouth, but sometimes it’s a confidence thing.

Exposed By Overloads:

Defensively Reading had started to ship goals over those 4 games.  Bournemouth’s David Brooks started to float around the pitch and Reading didn’t pass-on runners as effectively as they needed to.  For anyone that watched the game, Solanke scored from a wonderful Kelly cross into the 6-yard-box.  Having switched from 433 to 442, Kelly was now playing left-back (Rico subbed off) and with Danjuma ahead of him was starting to cause overloads on Tomas Estevez’s side.  The opening Bournemouth goal is a major part of their equaliser too.

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Pic 17 - Brooks (7) drifting off of the right wing

In this sequence Brooks has dribbled the ball across the pitch.  Initially tracked by left-back Omar Richards (3) he hands off to Semedo (30) and tries get back into position.  We see Esteves worried about Danjuma outside him, but because of the first goal, he’s also concerned about Kelly on the overlap.  Aluko (facing Brooks) is trying to cut the passing lane to Danjuma.

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Pic 18 - Esteves squared up

As Brooks shapes to pass wide to Kelly again, Estevez semi-commits to go out to mark him.  Danjuma sees that as the opportunity to catch Estevez off balance and darts inside.  Aluko’s position is pretty decent but Brooks threads the ball through the eye of a needle to Danjuma.

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Pic 19 - A better angle of Danjouma taking advantage of Esteves's movement towards Kelly

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Pic 20 – Danjuma is free and scores the equaliser

That half a yard march on Estevez is all it takes.  The pass from Brooks is perfect, one touch to get the ball into position and he shoots past Rafael.  City know all about Danjuma’s movement from his late winner at the Vitality Stadium, but it shows how the willing run of the left-back (Dasilva or Rowe in City’s case) can create space for a player with clever movement (Wells).  I thought Wells linked well for City on limited service against Derby and his desire to get into scoring position from out-to-in runs could serve City well.  Esteves at 18 or Holmes at 20 years-old might find Wells a big test also in his new left-forward role, especially if Diedhiou or Martin can isolate Morrison and Liam Moore.

Catalogue of Errors / Momentum:

From a team playing with confidence and keeping lots of clean sheets whilst not conceding many chances we’ve suddenly seen it all go horribly wrong.  Every little mistake is getting punished and it seems that momentum has swung.

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Pic 21 - Stoke trigger the press as Reading try to play out

In the first example Rafael passes out to Lewis Gibson (in for Liam Moore) who is under pressure from Steven Fletcher.  All other passes are blocked so he passes back to his keeper.

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Pic 22 - Rafael tries a clever pass to Richards

Rafael isn’t under enormous pressure from Fletcher, but he attempts a risky pass over to the left wing towards Omar Richards (3).  Tommy Smith reads it well, heads it forward to Fletcher (who is onside) who swivels and hits ball into the net.

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Pic 23 - Yiadom takes a heavy touch in the same game

In the same game Yiadom (17) receives a pass from Gibson following a clearance from Stoke.  Reading aren’t in good shape with 8 outfield players well past the ball.  Yiadom takes a heavy touch and James McLean smells blood!

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Pic 24 - McLean block tackles Yiadom

McLean is strong with the tackle and the balls breaks to Tyrese Campbell, who’s away on goal.  One-on-one he heads towards the box where he squares up Gibson and curls a shot past Rafael, but the ball comes back off the post.

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Pic 25 - Another clearance and Reading get into a mess

With Stoke happy to see the game out and clear their lines, Reading’s Gibson (with a 10-yard head start over sub Jacob Brown) has to deal with a bouncing ball.  City fans will remember Brown’s energetic pressing for Barnsley last season, and he isn’t giving this up, putting Gibson under pressure, forcing a mishit back pass.  Brown latches onto it, rounds Rafael and slots home for his first Stoke goal.  To make matters worse, Gibson chasing back slides into the goalpost in an attempt to clear – ouch!

Three examples in one game.  Two goals conceded, one off the post.  If we wind forward to last Saturday, we see Rafael gift Solanke their fourth goal of the match as the error trend continues.  Perhaps they are trying to get their mistakes out of the way in one go!

Set-pieces:

From left wing corners, Michael Olise shapes up for an away-swinger. 

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Pic 26 - Olise with a left footed corner versus Rotherham

As Olise runs up to the ball Josh Laurent makes a run away from the near post area as a distraction for the runs from five Reading attackers towards the intended target for the cross.  Rotherham defend the ball well, heading away.  The ball drops to Tomas Esteves, 35 yards from goal who shifts the ball out of his feet and hits a rasping drive that the keeper tips onto the crossbar.

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Pic 27 - Meite with a mighty fine volley!

Minutes later, the same routine brings its reward.  Laurent again vacates the near post area and Moore (on the ground – left of picture) almost gets on the end of it.  The ball ricochets into the air where Yakou Meite (mid-air) scores with an acrobatic volley. 

Penalties: 

On an aside both of Lucas Joao’s penalties (Rotherham and Bournemouth) have been scored low to his left / keeper’s right.

The Players / line-up:

GK: Rafael (30) – Brazilian born stopper who signed from Sampdoria in 2019 on a free transfer.  Previously at Napoli having started at Santos.  Great pedigree and had 3 Brazil caps earlier in his career.

RB: Tomas Esteves (18) – young full-back on loan from Porto.  Likes to get forward and very impressive in early games.  Looks like he was rested on Wednesday with Thomas Holmes (20) – the versatile homegrown player coming in.  The other option is Andy Yiadom (28) – the former Barnsley player who signed on a free in summer 2018.

CB: Liam Moore (27) – ex-Leicester City defender who captains the Biscuitmen.  Had a loan spell at City in 2014/15 where a hernia injury cut it short.  Been at Reading since summer 2016 when he signed for £1.

CB: Michael Morrison (32) – experienced Championship defender who made 150 appearances for both Charlton and Birmingham before Reading swooped in July 2019 to sign him on a free transfer.  Birmingham were under a transfer embargo and were unable to offer him a new deal.  Forms a key partnership with Moore

LB: Omar Richards (22) – another academy product who’s made over 70 appearances.  Made a single England u21 appearance and is a very capable left-back.

CM: Andy Rinomhota (23) – hard-working midfielder who was signed from non-league Porchester in 2005.  Neat and tidy on the ball, tenacious in the press.  Played every minute in the league this season.

CM: Josh Laurent (25) – former QPR youngster who moved to Brentford as a youngster and had a loan spell at Newport before going to Hartlepool on a free. Then moved to Wigan, a loan at Bury before moving to Shrewsbury in the summer of 2018 and showed his ability against City in the FA Cup last season.  Moved to Reading in the summer and settled in really well.

RAM/F: Yakou Meite (24) – Paris born Ivory Coast international who can play anywhere along the forward line.  Strong and quick, he started at PSG before signing for Reading in 2016 before a loan spell back in France with Sochaux in 2017/18.  4 goals in 7 starts (2 subs) this season.  He is battling with Sone Aluko (31) – the ex-Nigerian forward who I remember ripping us apart for Hull a good while back.

AM: Alfa Semedo (23) – On loan from Benfica having been at Forest last season.  Likes to get on the ball in pockets of space and can go past his man.

LAM: Ovie Ejaria (23) – talented attacking player who glides past players with his silky skills.  Started at Arsenal before Liverpool poached him as an 18-year-old.  Spent the first half of 2018-19 at Rangers before going to Reading which took him through 2019-20 also.  Signed permanently this season.  My Dangerman!!!

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Pic 28 - The man to watch - Reading's Ovie Ejaria

If Ejaria plays centrally the left side spot will fall to Michael Olise (18) – a Chelsea youth product who’s played a part in each game this season.  2 goals and 4 assists so far, and exciting talent.

CF: Lucas Joao (27) – Portuguese born striker who at 6’4” is very adept with his feet.  Started at Nacional in his home country before signing for Wednesday in 2015.  Likes a goal versus City and has 8 goals already this season.  Backing Joao up is George Puscas (24) – the Romanian international striker who spent time at Inter before a £6.75m transfer to Reading at the start of last season.  Not forgetting Sam Baldock (31) – the ex-City hitman who top-scored at Ashton Gate in 2013/14.  Been struggling with injury but making his comeback slowly from the bench.

Prediction: 

With City unbeaten in four and Reading winless in five I see City heading back West with at least a point, but more than likely all three.  City have three successive clean sheets and with Martin and Wells nicely rested I see this being the deciding factor against a Reading defence lacking confidence.

 

Reading 0:2 Bristol City

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Would it be fair to say that the reason Reading were doing so well at the start of the season is because playing in empty stadiums, they haven’t noticed? What with playing in that completely soulless warehouse of a stadium? They surely didn’t have to get used to not having an atmosphere at a game.

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7 minutes ago, Tipps69 said:

Would it be fair to say that the reason Reading were doing so well at the start of the season is because playing in empty stadiums, they haven’t noticed? What with playing in that completely soulless warehouse of a stadium? They surely didn’t have to get used to not having an atmosphere at a game.

Have you been listening to OSIB? ?

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22 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Having played on Wednesday night and kick-off having been brought forward to lunchtime for Sky, then it is a bonus that they only can travel on Saturday morning.  Every day they can spend preparing at Failand is a bonus with the punishing schedule ahead.  Every hour the players can avoid on a coach is no bad thing either.

They have to spend the same amount of time on the coach whenever they travel ?.

Seriously, another meticulously researched piece, @Davefevs. Superb stuff :clap:

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This is a good test for us today.

Looking at the top 6, we’re 2 teams many wouldn’t have up there at the end. Both had good starts, both stuttered and fell but we’ve recovered the better. 
 

They’ve shipped some goals recently and I fancy a smash and grab away win by a goal: 0-1 or 1-2 to City.
 

COYR!

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23 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Expect?

City travel up the M4 on Saturday to Reading in one of their shorter away trips this season.  Having played on Wednesday night and kick-off having been brought forward to lunchtime for Sky, then it is a bonus that they only can travel on Saturday morning.

Got on the M5 behind them yesterday at the portishead junction about half 1 . They must have come straight from the training ground .

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Feeling really positive about the team at the moment.

However, I have this nagging doubt that the lack of rotation (due to covid and injuries) is going to catch up with us soon. Not sure that the likes of Hunt, Paterson, Semenyo and COD can keep putting in big efforts every three days. Even the machine that is Nagy is gonna get a bit leggy soon.

Hope I'm wrong.

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7 minutes ago, Jimbo76 said:

Feeling really positive about the team at the moment.

However, I have this nagging doubt that the lack of rotation (due to covid and injuries) is going to catch up with us soon. Not sure that the likes of Hunt, Paterson, Semenyo and COD can keep putting in big efforts every three days. Even the machine that is Nagy is gonna get a bit leggy soon.

Hope I'm wrong.

I’m with you on this.

Absolutely amazed that we kept 10 of the starting XI on the pitch until the 87th minute in midweek.

It seems that neither Bakinson or Kalas are back for this one, so we are effectively going again with the same 17 players (Towler & Edwards may be on the bench but aren’t really viable options).

Massengo presumably is nearer to being a sub option having trained this week but I do expect Brunt to start today (I know he has been poor so far but is fit, experienced & unlike others, available) plus Martin & Wells to return.

Depends on whether we revert to a back four as to if Antoine stays in, he seems fresh and is of course young, but with QPR on Tuesday we do need to manage his workload.

Only other viable option is Mariappa, who must be approaching sufficient fitness levels to be involved either today or Tuesday.

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8 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I’m with you on this.

Absolutely amazed that we kept 10 of the starting XI on the pitch until the 87th minute in midweek.

It seems that neither Bakinson or Kalas are back for this one, so we are effectively going again with the same 17 players (Towler & Edwards may be on the bench but aren’t really viable options).

Massengo presumably is nearer to being a sub option having trained this week but I do expect Brunt to start today (I know he has been poor so far but is fit, experienced & unlike others, available) plus Martin & Wells to return.

Depends on whether we revert to a back four as to if Antoine stays in, he seems fresh and is of course young, but with QPR on Tuesday we do need to manage his workload.

Only other viable option is Mariappa, who must be approaching sufficient fitness levels to be involved either today or Tuesday.

I really hope you are wrong, when he signed thought it was a good move, but he has been lamentably poor. We have seen nothing of this fabled 'wand of a left foot' he once had.

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On 27/11/2020 at 17:49, Davefevs said:

 

Reading – Sat 28th November 12:30 – What Can We Expect?

City travel up the M4 on Saturday to Reading in one of their shorter away trips this season.  Having played on Wednesday night and kick-off having been brought forward to lunchtime for Sky, then it is a bonus that they only can travel on Saturday morning.  Every day they can spend preparing at Failand is a bonus with the punishing schedule ahead.  Every hour the players can avoid on a coach is no bad thing either.  

Midweek saw both sides draw, City at home to Watford 0-0 to halt their winning run, Reading 1-1 at Millwall to end their losing sequence.  We know how big a part momentum can play and Reading will be hopeful that they can start another unbeaten run having come from behind.

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Pic 1 - Championship Table ahead of this weekend's fixtures [BBC Sport]

Who’s the boss:

For the second game running City come face to face with a Yugoslav born ex-Partizan player in the opposition dugout.  Reading’s boss is Veljko Paunovic.  Having progressed through the youth ranks at Partizan he moved to Atletico Madrid after one season.  A loan at Marbella was followed by progression to Atletico’s B Team and over a 7 year stay in the capital he was loaned to Mallorca twice and Oviedo.  Continuing his holiday destination career, he then moved to Tenerife before transfers to Hannover 96, Getafe, Rubin Kazan, Almeria and back to Partizan before heading across the Atlantic to end his career at Philadelphia after a trial New York Red Bull.  He amassed over 350 appearances and 76 goals as well as 2 caps and 1 goal for Serbia and Montenegro.

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Pic 2 – Paunovic wins his first Manager of the Month award, and with it comes the “curse”!

After retirement from playing, he earned his UEFA PRO license and Sporting Director degree and coupled with his years spent in Spain he became the Champions League Analyst for the Royal Spanish Football Federation.  Alongside this role he started working with Serbia’s age-group teams that saw him win the u20 World Cup.  Perhaps Paunovic and Simpson will be parading their medals at the Madejski on Saturday?  Success led him to Chicago Fire in the MLS where he took them to the play-offs before he left after 4 years in November 2019.  Paunovic replaced self-appointed Mark Bowen at the end of August.

Recruitment:

Reading seem to be on an FFP tightrope having utilised the get out jail free card of selling their Stadium.  They were under a soft embargo in the summer of 2019 but have cleared a fair chunk of the wage bill over this summer to stay compliant whilst only bringing in one player for a fee.

Players in:

§  Ovie Ejaria – Liverpool (£3.5m)

§  Josh Laurent – Shrewsbury (Free)

§  Lewis Gibson – Everton (Loan)

§  Alfa Semedo – Benfica (Loan)

§  Tomas Esteves – Porto (Loan)

Players out: 

§  Mo Barrow – Jeonbuk Motors (South Korea) (£1.4m)

§  Danny Loader – Porto B (Free)

§  Tyler Blackett – Nottingham Forest (Free)

§  Vito Mannone – Monaco (Free)

§  Charlie Adam – Dundee (Free)

§  Jordan Holsgrove – Celta Vigo B (Free)

§  Chris Gunter – Charlton (Free)

§  Adrian Popa – FC Voluntari (Rumania) (Free)

§  Marc McNulty – Dundee Utd (Loan)

§  Jordan Obita – Released

§  Gareth McCleary – Released

Perhaps their best business was hanging onto Jon Swift who had a host of clubs enquiring after his services.  Having rebuffed those offers Swift suffered a serious hamstring injury two games into the season and is out for at least three months.

Formation / System

Paunovic has played a back four in most games this season predominantly in a 4231 formation, but he will deviate depending on personnel and game state.

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Pic 3 - Reading's line-up for Millwall on Wednesday [Wyscout]

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Pic 4 - Reading's subs and team shape retain the 4231 versus Millwall

With Reading trailing to a first half injury time goal from Jed Wallace, Semedo (30) is replaced by Michael Olise (7).   Joao got them back level before another sub In injury time saw ex-City player Sam Baldock (9) come on for Yakou Meite (11) and the attacking midfield three was shuffled around.

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Pic 5 - Reading's 4231 versus Bournemouth [Wyscout]

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Pic 6 - Paunovic's use of subs and system(s) [Wyscout]

In the defeat at Bournemouth, Reading looked good value for their 2-0 half-time lead but two goals in three minutes before the hour led to changes.  Estevez and Aluko were replaced by Holmes and Olise and just before Bournemouth took the lead Ejaria was withdrawn for Meite.  Finally, ex-City striker Baldock came on for Semedo and a switch to 442 in an attempt to rescue the game.

How do they play:

The 4231 is founded on a good spine.  Liam Moore and Michael Morrison at centre-back, one to attack the ball, one to sit off and cover.  In front of them they have a very hardworking three of Josh Laurent, Andy Rinomhota and Alfa Semedo.  They seem to complement each other well, and although their pass maps seem to highlight preferences, e.g., Rinomhota right, Laurent left and Semedo advanced, they cover each other well and are happy in each other space(s) too.

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Pic 7 - Josh Laurent's season heatmap [Wyscout]

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Pic 8 - Andy Rinomhota's season heatmap [Wyscout]

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Pic 9 - Alfa Semedo's season heatmap [Wyscout]

Ahead of them Reading have the Championship’s third leading scorer, Lucas Joao with 8 goals (inc. 2 penalties) and 3 assists.  He’s achieved this with an xG (Expected Goals) of just 5.23 from 25 shots of which 65% are on target.

Completing the forward threat from wider positions comes the likes of Sone Aluko, Ovie Ejaria, Yacou Meite and Michael Olise, who between them have chipped in 9 more goals.

Passing Style: 

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Pic 10 - Passing Style chart from @SwansAnalytics

In the chart above (thanks to @SwansAnalytics) we can see that Reading are one of the better teams at keeping the ball, making more passes per possession phase than most teams.  They also play very few long balls in comparison too.  With the likes of Ejaria and Aluko very happy to gain ground with the ball at their feet and Laurent purposeful when driving forward they’ve little need to launch the ball from the back.

They make 389 passes per 90 at 84% accuracy compared to a Championship average of 361 / 79% with City recently dropping from above to just below the median at 362 / 79%.  

However, making lots of passes doesn’t tell the whole story.  On Wednesday Reading added 473 passes at 87% to that but created just 7 chances.  For context, Derby made 602 passes at 85% on Saturday and fashioned very few chances too.  Most of their passing was in front of City’s midfield and of little threat.  We’ve seen excellent organisation from the Robins over the past few games as they’ve tweaked their system to press less heavily in light of injuries and little training due to Covid.  Derby’s best chance (0.22 in terms of xG) was Buchanan’s snapshot under pressure following a set-piece.  Waghorn’s half-volley on 6 minutes registered just 0.06 xG.

Looking back at Reading we see that they are seriously outperforming their xG scoring 1.58 goals per game (19 goals) against xG of 0.94 per game.  They owe much of this to Joao’s efficiency.  At the other end of the pitch, having only conceded 3 goals (6.34 xG Conceded) in their first 8 games, Reading then conceded 13 (6.91 xG Conceded) in their next 4.  Regression to mean and then beyond it in some style in their own goal!

Reading Early 2020/21 In A Nutshell:

Watching Reading this season I’ve been impressed with some of the simplicity of their play and the execution.  I like that they make the pass when it’s on, not delaying whilst they look around for other options.  They are quite fluid in the middle part of the pitch and I think they break the lines effectively.

Although not a heavy pressing side, they do trigger it well when required, and I think this goes back to the three midfielders understanding each other’s position on the pitch.

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Pic 11 - Reading win the ball back versus Bournemouth

Above we can see Rinomhota pounce on a loose touch from Solanke under pressure from Laurent to his side and Semedo behind.

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Pic 12 - Reading's one-touch passing rips Bournemouth apart

Rinomhota pops a pass off to Laurent who plays it first time to Ejaria who clips it to Semedo.  Ejaria is on the move and there is a lovely gap opening up in front of Bournemouth’s back four.  Semedo has spotted the run too and an opportunity for a one-two.

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Pic 13 - Ejaria on the move

Semedo lays a nice ball into Ejaria’s path.  Ejaria isn’t on the ball yet but with Joao dragging Kelly out of position, Aluko is already “on his bike” making a run into the gap.

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Pic 14 - Bish, Bash, Bosh – Goal

Ejaria spots the run, slides the ball into the hole and Aluko finishes the job.  I loved the proactive run from Aluko, but also the simplicity of the one touch execution from Rinomhota, Laurent, Ejaria and Semedo before Ejaria gets it back and assists Aluko.  Easy to be critical of Bournemouth, but when a team clicks into gear like this there is little to stop them.

From a defensive point of view, we see the importance of Liam Moore in their early run of results.  He has developed an excellent partnership with Michael Morrison.

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Pic 15 - Liam Moore covers the danger area versus Rotherham

Liam Moore takes up an excellent position covering the run towards the near post of Michael Smith who has stolen half a yard on Morrison.  The cross is hit into this area and Moore wins a great header with Smith all over him.

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Pic 16 - Moore clears off the line

Ever alert, Moore re-positions himself on the goal-line and George Hirst’s goal-bound shot is cleared to safety.  This type of defending typified Reading’s opening games of the season as they romped to the top of the Championship.  Moore’s injury meant a change at the back and unsettled them in their poor run.  He was back for Bournemouth, but sometimes it’s a confidence thing.

Exposed By Overloads:

Defensively Reading had started to ship goals over those 4 games.  Bournemouth’s David Brooks started to float around the pitch and Reading didn’t pass-on runners as effectively as they needed to.  For anyone that watched the game, Solanke scored from a wonderful Kelly cross into the 6-yard-box.  Having switched from 433 to 442, Kelly was now playing left-back (Rico subbed off) and with Danjuma ahead of him was starting to cause overloads on Tomas Estevez’s side.  The opening Bournemouth goal is a major part of their equaliser too.

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Pic 17 - Brooks (7) drifting off of the right wing

In this sequence Brooks has dribbled the ball across the pitch.  Initially tracked by left-back Omar Richards (3) he hands off to Semedo (30) and tries get back into position.  We see Esteves worried about Danjuma outside him, but because of the first goal, he’s also concerned about Kelly on the overlap.  Aluko (facing Brooks) is trying to cut the passing lane to Danjuma.

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Pic 18 - Esteves squared up

As Brooks shapes to pass wide to Kelly again, Estevez semi-commits to go out to mark him.  Danjuma sees that as the opportunity to catch Estevez off balance and darts inside.  Aluko’s position is pretty decent but Brooks threads the ball through the eye of a needle to Danjuma.

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Pic 19 - A better angle of Danjouma taking advantage of Esteves's movement towards Kelly

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Pic 20 – Danjuma is free and scores the equaliser

That half a yard march on Estevez is all it takes.  The pass from Brooks is perfect, one touch to get the ball into position and he shoots past Rafael.  City know all about Danjuma’s movement from his late winner at the Vitality Stadium, but it shows how the willing run of the left-back (Dasilva or Rowe in City’s case) can create space for a player with clever movement (Wells).  I thought Wells linked well for City on limited service against Derby and his desire to get into scoring position from out-to-in runs could serve City well.  Esteves at 18 or Holmes at 20 years-old might find Wells a big test also in his new left-forward role, especially if Diedhiou or Martin can isolate Morrison and Liam Moore.

Catalogue of Errors / Momentum:

From a team playing with confidence and keeping lots of clean sheets whilst not conceding many chances we’ve suddenly seen it all go horribly wrong.  Every little mistake is getting punished and it seems that momentum has swung.

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Pic 21 - Stoke trigger the press as Reading try to play out

In the first example Rafael passes out to Lewis Gibson (in for Liam Moore) who is under pressure from Steven Fletcher.  All other passes are blocked so he passes back to his keeper.

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Pic 22 - Rafael tries a clever pass to Richards

Rafael isn’t under enormous pressure from Fletcher, but he attempts a risky pass over to the left wing towards Omar Richards (3).  Tommy Smith reads it well, heads it forward to Fletcher (who is onside) who swivels and hits ball into the net.

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Pic 23 - Yiadom takes a heavy touch in the same game

In the same game Yiadom (17) receives a pass from Gibson following a clearance from Stoke.  Reading aren’t in good shape with 8 outfield players well past the ball.  Yiadom takes a heavy touch and James McLean smells blood!

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Pic 24 - McLean block tackles Yiadom

McLean is strong with the tackle and the balls breaks to Tyrese Campbell, who’s away on goal.  One-on-one he heads towards the box where he squares up Gibson and curls a shot past Rafael, but the ball comes back off the post.

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Pic 25 - Another clearance and Reading get into a mess

With Stoke happy to see the game out and clear their lines, Reading’s Gibson (with a 10-yard head start over sub Jacob Brown) has to deal with a bouncing ball.  City fans will remember Brown’s energetic pressing for Barnsley last season, and he isn’t giving this up, putting Gibson under pressure, forcing a mishit back pass.  Brown latches onto it, rounds Rafael and slots home for his first Stoke goal.  To make matters worse, Gibson chasing back slides into the goalpost in an attempt to clear – ouch!

Three examples in one game.  Two goals conceded, one off the post.  If we wind forward to last Saturday, we see Rafael gift Solanke their fourth goal of the match as the error trend continues.  Perhaps they are trying to get their mistakes out of the way in one go!

Set-pieces:

From left wing corners, Michael Olise shapes up for an away-swinger. 

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Pic 26 - Olise with a left footed corner versus Rotherham

As Olise runs up to the ball Josh Laurent makes a run away from the near post area as a distraction for the runs from five Reading attackers towards the intended target for the cross.  Rotherham defend the ball well, heading away.  The ball drops to Tomas Esteves, 35 yards from goal who shifts the ball out of his feet and hits a rasping drive that the keeper tips onto the crossbar.

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Pic 27 - Meite with a mighty fine volley!

Minutes later, the same routine brings its reward.  Laurent again vacates the near post area and Moore (on the ground – left of picture) almost gets on the end of it.  The ball ricochets into the air where Yakou Meite (mid-air) scores with an acrobatic volley. 

Penalties: 

On an aside both of Lucas Joao’s penalties (Rotherham and Bournemouth) have been scored low to his left / keeper’s right.

The Players / line-up:

GK: Rafael (30) – Brazilian born stopper who signed from Sampdoria in 2019 on a free transfer.  Previously at Napoli having started at Santos.  Great pedigree and had 3 Brazil caps earlier in his career.

RB: Tomas Esteves (18) – young full-back on loan from Porto.  Likes to get forward and very impressive in early games.  Looks like he was rested on Wednesday with Thomas Holmes (20) – the versatile homegrown player coming in.  The other option is Andy Yiadom (28) – the former Barnsley player who signed on a free in summer 2018.

CB: Liam Moore (27) – ex-Leicester City defender who captains the Biscuitmen.  Had a loan spell at City in 2014/15 where a hernia injury cut it short.  Been at Reading since summer 2016 when he signed for £1.

CB: Michael Morrison (32) – experienced Championship defender who made 150 appearances for both Charlton and Birmingham before Reading swooped in July 2019 to sign him on a free transfer.  Birmingham were under a transfer embargo and were unable to offer him a new deal.  Forms a key partnership with Moore

LB: Omar Richards (22) – another academy product who’s made over 70 appearances.  Made a single England u21 appearance and is a very capable left-back.

CM: Andy Rinomhota (23) – hard-working midfielder who was signed from non-league Porchester in 2005.  Neat and tidy on the ball, tenacious in the press.  Played every minute in the league this season.

CM: Josh Laurent (25) – former QPR youngster who moved to Brentford as a youngster and had a loan spell at Newport before going to Hartlepool on a free. Then moved to Wigan, a loan at Bury before moving to Shrewsbury in the summer of 2018 and showed his ability against City in the FA Cup last season.  Moved to Reading in the summer and settled in really well.

RAM/F: Yakou Meite (24) – Paris born Ivory Coast international who can play anywhere along the forward line.  Strong and quick, he started at PSG before signing for Reading in 2016 before a loan spell back in France with Sochaux in 2017/18.  4 goals in 7 starts (2 subs) this season.  He is battling with Sone Aluko (31) – the ex-Nigerian forward who I remember ripping us apart for Hull a good while back.

AM: Alfa Semedo (23) – On loan from Benfica having been at Forest last season.  Likes to get on the ball in pockets of space and can go past his man.

LAM: Ovie Ejaria (23) – talented attacking player who glides past players with his silky skills.  Started at Arsenal before Liverpool poached him as an 18-year-old.  Spent the first half of 2018-19 at Rangers before going to Reading which took him through 2019-20 also.  Signed permanently this season.  My Dangerman!!!

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Pic 28 - The man to watch - Reading's Ovie Ejaria

If Ejaria plays centrally the left side spot will fall to Michael Olise (18) – a Chelsea youth product who’s played a part in each game this season.  2 goals and 4 assists so far, and exciting talent.

CF: Lucas Joao (27) – Portuguese born striker who at 6’4” is very adept with his feet.  Started at Nacional in his home country before signing for Wednesday in 2015.  Likes a goal versus City and has 8 goals already this season.  Backing Joao up is George Puscas (24) – the Romanian international striker who spent time at Inter before a £6.75m transfer to Reading at the start of last season.  Not forgetting Sam Baldock (31) – the ex-City hitman who top-scored at Ashton Gate in 2013/14.  Been struggling with injury but making his comeback slowly from the bench.

Prediction: 

With City unbeaten in four and Reading winless in five I see City heading back West with at least a point, but more than likely all three.  City have three successive clean sheets and with Martin and Wells nicely rested I see this being the deciding factor against a Reading defence lacking confidence.

 

Reading 0:2 Bristol City

Great update Dave and these reports are brilliant. I dont know how you do it but keep up the good work. I’m sure all of us get a great frill on the stats and updates.

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5 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

I really hope you are wrong, when he signed thought it was a good move, but he has been lamentably poor. We have seen nothing of this fabled 'wand of a left foot' he once had.

Thing is Brunt has hardly featured so hasn’t really had the opportunity to show his skills yet. A Baggies fan I know reckoned that they were sorry to see him go. They really liked him up there.

A major reason for bringing him in must have been for his vast experience of both the PL and the Championship and that his influence both on and off the pitch being of benefit particularly to those younger guys.

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32 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

I really hope you are wrong, when he signed thought it was a good move, but he has been lamentably poor. We have seen nothing of this fabled 'wand of a left foot' he once had.

Who else, though?

Williams? Walsh?

Nagy cannot play every single minute, Bakinson is still unavailable & Massengo coming back from a health scare..

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