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Rotherham (a) – Sat 12th December 15:00 – What Can We Expect?


Davefevs

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Rotherham (a) – Sat 12th December 15:00 – What Can We Expect?

City head north to the New York Stadium for Saturday’s match against the Millers buoyed by a gritty win at home to Blackburn on Wednesday.  With City travelling up on Friday, the usual post-match rest-day has been cancelled as Holden has had to use Thursday to prepare for this fixture.

Their Yorkshire opponents were promoted back the Championship last season, finishing second to Coventry in a season cut short by Covid.  They have yo-yo’d between the second and third tiers in recent times having got back into the Championship on the back of successive promotions in 2012-13 and 2013-14, but were relegated in 2016-17, came straight back up in 2017-18, and went back down again in 2018-19.  

They currently sit in 20th spot on the back of a defeat at Watford (2-0) on Tuesday night and are on a 6-game winless run.  In their last two games they’ve found themselves two goals behind inside 15 minutes and therefore left themselves a mountain to climb.  They do show a lot of spirit and keep going until the end though.

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Pic 1 - Championship table ahead of this weekend's fixtures

Who’s the boss?

The Millers are managed by long-serving ex-player Paul Warne.  The 47-year-old has been in the hotseat for four years, replacing Kenny Jackett in November 2016.  The Norwich born midfielder made over 250 appearances for Rotherham in two spells as well as stunts at Wigan, Oldham and Yeovil, totalling over 500 league and cup games in the process.  

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Pic 2 - Warne preps for City

With a League One promotion already under his belt, it is no wonder the owners entrusted Warne with the opportunity to take Rotherham back up again.  His work on a tiny budget is incredible!

Recruitment:

As above Rotherham have the smallest budget in the Championship, a wage bill just 40% of our own (latest accounts published year ending May 2019 - which covered their last season in this division).  Yet they turned in a profit of £2.7m off the back of prudent cost management and the sales of Semi Ajayi and Will Vaulks which they invested a small percentage of to bring in the goals of Freddie Ladapo.  This season they’ve spent less again!

Players in:

§  Dan Barlaser – Newcastle (£250k)

§  Mickel Miller – Hamilton (Free)

§  Kieran Sadlier – Doncaster (Free)

§  Angus MacDonald – Hull (Free)

§  Wes Harding – Birmingham (Undisc.)

§  Florian Jozefzoon – Derby (Loan)

§  George Hirst – Leicester (Loan)

§  Jamal Blackman – Chelsea (Loan)

§  Josh Vickers – Unattached

Players out:

§  Jerry Yates – Blackpool (Undisc.)

§  Laurence Bilboe – Oldham (Free)

§  Jamie Proctor – Newport (Loan)

§  Curtis Tilt – Wigan (Loan)

§  Josh Kayode – Carlisle (Loan)

How Do They Line-up?

Warne has mainly set up his team in a 433, but in the last 4 games he has changed to a 352.  Below is the set-up versus Coventry last Saturday.

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Pic 3 - Warne's 352 versus Coventry [Wyscout]

However, with Rotherham falling 2-0 down after just 12 minutes it was little surprise to see Warne revert to 433 for the final 25 minutes.

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Pic 4 - Warne swaps to 433 for the final 25 minutes [Wyscout]

An injury to Joe Mattock (3) didn’t help matters as Warne had to make changes at half-time.  Mattock replaced by Barlaser (26) and captain Richard Wood (6) swapped for Matthew Olusunde (22), but positional changes too as Ben Wiles (8) moved to LWB and Wes Harding (19) switched into RCB.  Ladapo (10) was replaced by Hirst (9) before the hour, and Kyle Vassell (7) came on for Jamie Lindsay (16) as Warne chased the game.  The final sub saw Jozefzoon (28) replace Michael Smith (24), as Barlaser scored a late penalty in a 3-1 defeat. 

On Tuesday Warne was forced into more changes.

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Pic 5 - several changes for Watford [Wyscout]

Richard Wood is left out and Wes Harding is moved into the back three, Billy Jones comes in at RWB.  Ben Miles is moved from midfield to LWB with Joe Mattock injured, meaning Dan Barlaser taking his place in the centre of midfield.  Up front, top scorer Ladapo is rotated with Kyle Vassell. 

How do they play?

Rotherham are a hardworking outfit who try to make up for their lack of overall quality by being more about the sum of the parts.  They are predominantly a direct passing team, with lots of “diags” hit into the forwards, particularly Smith.

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Pic 6 - Michael Smith is the target for Rotherham's attacks [Wyscout]

We can see from the Coventry match last Saturday that Smith is the focal point of Rotherham’s attack.  But he’s not always the recipient of aerial balls, they do try to get it into his chest and feet too with Ladapo or Vassell looking to make runs off of him.  Against Watford he was more effective winning 16 of his 33 duals (10 / 20 aerially). 

The numbers*: 

§  Passes per 90: 265 (22nd)

§  Passing Accuracy: 72% (23rd)

§  Long Passes per 90: 51 (10th)

§  Long Passes Accuracy: 57% (3rd)

[* data from Wyscout up to 7th December]

Although their passing numbers are low, we can see that they one of the better teams in terms of long passing accuracy.  They are also good at disrupting the opposition too!  Most teams pass far below their average against the Millers and enjoy shorter possession sequences than they are used to.

Where Rotherham do win the ball in the opposition half, they do commit players forward with energy.

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Pic 7 - Rotherham commit players forward against Watford

With Watford giving away sloppy possession in their own right-back area, Rotherham load players forward.  Smith gets the ball into feet, lays it off to Crooks (25) who curls a shot over.  They enjoyed a decent end to the match as they pressed Watford onto mistakes. 

Crosses: 

One of Rotherham’s strengths is their willingness to get crosses in.  Some of that is because they don’t sustain possession, so they take their chance(s) to get the ball into the box when they can.

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Pic 8 - Wes Harding crosses first time versus QPR

Harding (19) playing RWB gets a ball laid back into his path and his first thought is to cross it, relying on his teammates to have made the box.  We can see three already there heading for the intended cross and another on the edge.  Harding’s cross is on the money, and Smith gets ahead of Dickie to head home.  As a striker, knowing that your wide man is going cross first time means you can make pro-active runs, and we can see that Smith (starred) has got half a yard. 

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Pic 9 - more early crosses versus Wednesday

Another cross, this time from the energetic Wiles (8).  It doesn’t come to anything, but we can see three Rotherham players heading the box.

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Pic 10 - Mattock this with the first-time cross

In the same match, a simple weighted pass laid back to Joe Mattock (3) who can sling a first-time cross into the box.  Four Rotherham players in the box, three of them in the target area. 

City’s centre-backs and full-backs will have to be switched on as soon as the Rotherham wide player shapes to cross.  They will probably need to head away as many balls as they did up at Middlesbrough last season (won 3-1) whilst being aware of runners into the box.

Too many defenders, not enough marking:

As a team who don’t retain possession for long spells, the Millers don’t always make the best use of the 352 formation and therefore they can see their wingbacks pinned back, and the 352 can look more like a 532.

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Pic 11 - Rotherham defend the box versus Brentford

We can see six Rotherham players inside the penalty area as the Brentford player crosses.  Brentford have only two forwards in the box.

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Pic 12 - Rotherham defenders get caught ball-watching

Ivan Toney peels to the back-post for a deep cross, and four Rotherham players make a move towards him whilst Marcus Forss drops towards the penalty spot for any nod back to him.  The nod back is perfect and by the time Wood (6) reacts, Forss has already shot and Brentford take the lead.  An example of plenty of defenders but nobody taking ownership for marking.

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Pic 13 - and another versus QPR

In the next example, we see Rotherham retreat into their box against QPR.  Eight players defending (plus the keeper), yet only three QPR forwards to contend with.  Although this might make them difficult to breakdown it gives them very little hope of building their own attacks. 

Narrow-minded: 

We’ve seen above that Rotherham will defend in numbers, but we also can see how narrow they can become too.

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Pic 14 - plenty of players back but a narrow defence versus Watford

With little pressure on Troost-Ekong (Watford), he is able to pick a pass to Ken Sema who has galloped forward from LWB.  We can see Rotherham’s back 5 are very narrow and it appears to be more of a zonal set-up, with runners being marked as they come into a defender’s zone.  The Rotherham midfielder Jamie Lindsay is now having to cover large distances when it would be more efficient to push Billy Jones out and the rest of the defence shuffle across.  This situation happens multiple times in a difficult first half.

Finally, another example below at home to Bournemouth with the ball being passed into Solanke.  We can see as Solanke (centre of pic) receives the ball but look how narrow they are!  There are a number of problems.   

§  Olusunde and Harding (bottom left) marking one player whilst leaving Rico on his own for starters when there is enough cover to avoid this.  

§  Every Rotherham player is well inside their own half meaning that if the Millers do win the ball, there is no out-ball.  

§  The condensed area is easier for the Cherries to heavy-press if they do lose the ball and win it back in Rotherham’s final third

§  Any ball cleared is going to come straight back too!

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Pic 15 - lots of bodies but narrow again versus Bournemouth

So, not a good set-up which inevitably invites pressure and wave after wave of attacks to defend.

Possible Line-up:

GK: Jamal Blackman (27) – on a season long loan from Chelsea.  Having come through the Chelsea youth system he’s had loans at Middlesbrough, Ostersund, Wycombe, Sheffield United, Leeds, Vitesse and even Bristol Rovers.  Can be a bit erratic!  Providing back up is Viktor Johansson (22) – a free transfer signing from Leicester in the summer and has just one start so far.

RWB: Billy Jones (33) - former West Brom / Sunderland man who I always thought was a steady Prem performer in his day and surprised to see move to Rotherham two seasons ago.  Good going both ways but wonder if he still has the legs to give whoever opposes him a tough afternoon.  Just 3 starts this season.  The RWB spot is under challenge from Matthew Olusunde (22) – a free transfer from Manchester United in July 2019, he has one cap for the United States having initially been at New York Red Bull.

RCB: Wes Harding (24) – Birmingham academy product who moved in the summer for an undisclosed fee.  Versatile and could easily line up at RWB if required.

CB: Michael Ihiekwe (28) – athletic centre-back who has become a key player since returning from a loan at Accrington in January 2019.  Started at Liverpool but moved to Wolves at 18 before a transfer back to Merseyside and Tranmere to get his career going.  Made over 100 appearances before signing on a free in the summer of 2017, where hes now totted up another 100 for the Millers.  It’s quite possible Ihiekwe could move to RCB and Richard Wood (35) – could come back in.  The veteran defender who started at Wednesday before arriving at Rotherham in 2014 via Coventry and Charlton.  Well over 500 appearances in his career and when he has played this season has worn the captain’s armband.

LCB: Angus MacDonald (28) – former Reading youth who has played for Torquay, Wimbledon, Barnsley and Hull, and has battled back from the early stages of bowel cancer, receiving the all-clear a year ago.

LWB: Ben Wiles (21) – came through the Millers academy and started to establish himself last season.  An energetic midfielder by trade with good technique, he’s filling in at LWB currently due to an injury to Joe Mattock (30) – who’s out until February.

CM: Jamie Lindsay (25) – former Celtic youth who arrived in the summer of 2019 from Ross County.  Played the majority of games in last season’s promotion winning squad and has again featured heavily this season.

CM: Matt Crooks (26) – former Manchester United and Huddersfield youth player before being released by the Terriers.  Got picked up by Accrington and moved to Rangers and Northampton before signing for Rotherham in January 2019.  Provides a physical presence in the centre of the pitch.

CM: Dan Barlaser (23) – signed in the summer from Newcastle for £250k having been at Accrington on loan previously.  Good on the ball with nice touches, a player City don’t want to give too much time on the ball. DANGERMAN

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Pic 16 - Barlaser signs for the Millers

CF: Freddie Ladapo (27) – much travelled striker in his younger days, having spells at Colchester, Chelmsford, Grays etc before signing for Crystal Palace in 2016.  Loans Oldham and Shrewsbury showed a bit of promise before a move to Southend.  But it was at Plymouth where Ladapo started to really shine prompting a £500k transfer to the Millers where his 17 goals played a key role in gaining promotion.  Fighting for a slot in Warne’s team is Kyle Vassell (28) – another much travelled forward, who had spells at Peterborough and Blackpool amongst others before joining Rotherham in July 2018.  Can look a real threat but doesn’t get enough goals.

CF: Michael Smith (29) – ex-Swindon man, who scored the winner in the Wade Elliott red card game in 14/15.  Good feet for a big man but not gonna run in behind us.  Will peel to the back stick for crosses so City’s side centre-backs beware and a good foil for either Ladapo or Vassell.

Other players:

LB: Trevor Clarke (22) – Ireland U21 international signed from Shamrock

RW: Florian Jozefzoon (29) – winger on loan from Derby

LW: Kieran Sadler (26) – former West Ham youth who joined from Doncaster having been at Sligo and Cork

CF: George Hirst (21) – son of Wednesday legend David, on loan from Leicester

Prediction:

With City in 6th and coming off of the back of a good win, it would be easy to think three points is a given.  But this is the Championship, the Millers have had an extra day’s rest and no travel either.  They finished the game against Watford looking better than at the start, and if they can stop losing the early goal and the initiative, I see it becoming a tough afternoon and City taking a point.

Rotherham United 1:1 Bristol City

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Rate Paul Warne, done a brilliant job there with minimal resources.

They are a tall, direct side & we will have to win a lot of aerial battles before hopefully imposing our game on them.

Holden’s options to change it around are pretty limited, unless Paterson is fit to play some part & so if we assume we go with a back four again they are really only Famara, Brunt or Massengo & the latter has had hardly any game time.

Bakinson looked like playing the full 90 was a stretch & Semenyo is in need of a break for me. How we could achieve that would be interesting.

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I know it's the championship - but a team that's lost 4 of their last 5 and not won in 6 (conceding the most goals of any team) and only won 2 in last 10....we have to be aiming for 3 points.

They have a much better record at home than away but we have a much better record away than home.

One criticism levelled at us is our inability to control games or possession, so given how Dave has highlighted controlling possession as not one of Rotherham's strengths, it will be interesting to compare the two teams, despite the fact that they may be good at disrupting us. 

Even if we give up some possession, I'm hoping to see us limit Rotherham tomorrow and stretch them on the break. Going for Rotherham 0 - City 1

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We should be good enough and confident enough to get a win. At some point the team will click for 90 mins and we could do with increasing our goal tally- it looks likely that it's going to count come the end of this season.

However, I'd take a draw if Semenyo finally gets on the score sheet as I think this is what he desperately needs ( not a rest). I'm pleased Dean has persevered with him so far.

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Excellent write up again. 

As many others have said, it definitely won’t be an easy afternoon. Will be good to see Pato back hopefully and a repeat of the performance v Blackburn, only difference is we know where the net is this time!

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2 hours ago, steviestevieneville said:

Does anyone think , with their direct style it might be worth reverting to 352 , got the extra centre half for the diagonal ball / early cross and perhaps a chance to use their lack of width in defensive areas to counter attack them . Great write up as ever @Davefevs ??

Yep & also it is a way of rotating players when we don’t have many to choose from.

In our last 3 games Taylor Moore has played just 6 minutes so if anyone is going to be fresh, he is.

I’d also bring Famara in, he is very good defensively for us & a more likely scorer than either Martin or Semenyo, also he (like Moore) has had a light workload in the last 3, playing just 30 minutes in total.

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16 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Yep & also it is a way of rotating players when we don’t have many to choose from.

In our last 3 games Taylor Moore has played just 6 minutes so if anyone is going to be fresh, he is.

I’d also bring Famara in, he is very good defensively for us & a more likely scorer than either Martin or Semenyo, also he (like Moore) has had a light workload in the last 3, playing just 30 minutes in total.

I think we might see a few changes tomorrow.  Although I’m not an advocate of looking at the game after, with us playing Tuesday (followed by Friday too), Dean perhaps might have an eye on not going into Tuesday wanting to play someone specific who might’ve just played a few on the trot.

Its a real difficult balance for him, and I don’t think there’s a right way either.  The one advantage he has is that we do have a squad of fairly equal abilities.  Of the eleven that started on Wednesday, would any of of have too many qualms about Diedhiou, Moore, Mariappa, Brunt or Massengo, coming into the starting line-up on an individual basis?  You probably might not look at a CM pairing of Brunt and Massengo, but you could easily bring one in tomorrow, one in on Tuesday and give Nagy and Bakinson a break.  Not forgetting Paterson could be back tomorrow too.

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A case here again of focussing on our own game but doing the simple things right like winning first and second balls, passing accurately and quickly, not giving away possession stupidly. Getting a goal early might be vital. Can see us getting the ball back a lot via their route of persistent long balls but we need the quality to break quickly and with quality to put them to the sword.

bakinson should continue As dm and Nagy as the energy. O’dowda looked a little tired last game so massengo or brunt could deputise or the returning pato if passes fit as preference. 
 

I would like to see as I’ve said elsewhere, wells moved centrally, Alongside fam as a focal point for our own long ball option.

could possibly see Mariappa come in as a three at the back alongside kalas and vyner to negate their long ball tactic. One to challenge the first ball, one to mop up the second and one to cover zonally whilst the wing backs as part of a 3-5-2 cover wide balls in defence and start counter attacks moving forward.

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We need a good win tomorrow so not too many changes for me.  Back 4 the same, Nagy and Bakinson to be given time to form a solid CM partnership, would give COD a bit of a break, maybe half a game with Paterson for the other half if fit. Diedhiou got to have earned himself a starting spot, Nakhi to continue after his great game at the weekend, but still out wide, with Semenyo the other side of the front 3.  Nice to see a few goals scored and get the attacking confidence going after so many rushed and snatched efforts last game. No guarantees in this league, but lots to be positive about right now - well done Deano, setting us up nicely. 

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6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I think we might see a few changes tomorrow.  Although I’m not an advocate of looking at the game after, with us playing Tuesday (followed by Friday too), Dean perhaps might have an eye on not going into Tuesday wanting to play someone specific who might’ve just played a few on the trot.

Its a real difficult balance for him, and I don’t think there’s a right way either.  The one advantage he has is that we do have a squad of fairly equal abilities.  Of the eleven that started on Wednesday, would any of of have too many qualms about Diedhiou, Moore, Mariappa, Brunt or Massengo, coming into the starting line-up on an individual basis?  You probably might not look at a CM pairing of Brunt and Massengo, but you could easily bring one in tomorrow, one in on Tuesday and give Nagy and Bakinson a break.  Not forgetting Paterson could be back tomorrow too.

Generally agree, with one major exception, I'll be glad if Brunt never makes a start for us again. Once a decent player, but no more.

Most important to me is to start with 2 proper CMs, hopefully Nagy & Bakinson, but if either not fit to start then Massengo. Do not want to see both Pato & COD start in midfield.

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9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I think we might see a few changes tomorrow.  Although I’m not an advocate of looking at the game after, with us playing Tuesday (followed by Friday too), Dean perhaps might have an eye on not going into Tuesday wanting to play someone specific who might’ve just played a few on the trot.

Its a real difficult balance for him, and I don’t think there’s a right way either.  The one advantage he has is that we do have a squad of fairly equal abilities.  Of the eleven that started on Wednesday, would any of of have too many qualms about Diedhiou, Moore, Mariappa, Brunt or Massengo, coming into the starting line-up on an individual basis?  You probably might not look at a CM pairing of Brunt and Massengo, but you could easily bring one in tomorrow, one in on Tuesday and give Nagy and Bakinson a break.  Not forgetting Paterson could be back tomorrow too.

Agree.

Can’t remember the game (think it was Birmingham?) when we went unchanged but it was definitely one when we were really poor.

I won’t be too surprised to see Bakinson rested, Tinnion said he was playing catch up after so long out & starting 3 games in 6 days will probably be too much.

Disappointing (but not surprising) to read the comments slagging off Brunt, if others were ever available to play a part perhaps he wouldn’t need to be involved so much, eh?

Nagy has gone from not even making the bench in the first 7 games to being indispensable, so expect we will probably try to start him in all 3 but rest him late on depending on the score. That would be how I expect us to use HNM.

Hunt has had a decent break recently so baring some unknown injury I don’t expect Mariappa to start today but think Moore, Brunt & Diedhiou possibly all will.

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44 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Agree.

Can’t remember the game (think it was Birmingham?) when we went unchanged but it was definitely one when we were really poor.

I won’t be too surprised to see Bakinson rested, Tinnion said he was playing catch up after so long out & starting 3 games in 6 days will probably be too much.

Disappointing (but not surprising) to read the comments slagging off Brunt, if others were ever available to play a part perhaps he wouldn’t need to be involved so much, eh?

Nagy has gone from not even making the bench in the first 7 games to being indispensable, so expect we will probably try to start him in all 3 but rest him late on depending on the score. That would be how I expect us to use HNM.

Hunt has had a decent break recently so baring some unknown injury I don’t expect Mariappa to start today but think Moore, Brunt & Diedhiou possibly all will.

Interesting isn’t it...the old man who’s past it, legs have gone etc....always been fit and available for selection, eh!

He’s clearly not the player he was, he clearly will be beaten by more athletic opposition players, yeah he’s played a few bad balls when there was no outlet - but I still think he’s got something to add to the team when so many first choices are out, unfit or in need of a rest.

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11 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Yep & also it is a way of rotating players when we don’t have many to choose from.

In our last 3 games Taylor Moore has played just 6 minutes so if anyone is going to be fresh, he is.

I’d also bring Famara in, he is very good defensively for us & a more likely scorer than either Martin or Semenyo, also he (like Moore) has had a light workload in the last 3, playing just 30 minutes in total.

Agree. Taylor hasn’t kicked on as yet but Rotherham could play to his strengths . Nagy could do with a break but he’s been superb. If pato is back I’d bring him in for O’dowda. He still frustrates the life out of me . He did well in the build up for the goal on Wednesday , but his lack of awareness of runners does my head in . Everyone fit he doesn’t make the bench imo 

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12 minutes ago, Septic Peg said:

Rov has become the new Champ yoyo team. They're on a 6 game winless run and we're playing away.

It should be an easy win but I wouldn't be surprised by a 0-0 draw. 

It’s a really difficult game to call. On paper City should  be too strong regardless of who starts but the game isn’t played on paper as we know.

I have a feeling that City will nick a 0-1 but I’m not confident enough to put a few quid on it.

Reading Fevs excellent preview it looks as if our CBs are in for lots of heading.............:cool2:

City are in a hectic run of fixtures and Deano along with his assistants will have to carefully assess each individual players stamina and ability to cope with such a heavy schedule. All players want to play so making the decision on the matchday squad and starting 11 will not be straightforward . However one big advantage is that the coaches work with these guys pretty much everyday and obviously will have a greater insight into how they are in training.

I can imagine Deano saying to Bakinson ’I think you need a rest’.......you can be sure that Bakinson won’t agree.

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4 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said:

I want 3 points today, a top 6 side should beat Rotherham but aware they are not a bad team at home. 

I see it differently. A top 6 side should get 75 points plus and who they get them against doesn’t matter. Pro Rata we are on target for 80 points but of course it doesn’t work like that. However of the 30 points we have won some have been won unexpectedly and then other games have seen points dropped unexpectedly. It’s the Championship and anything goes!!

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Be interesting to see the possession stats today. 
Rotherham average 45% at home. 
City average 45% away. 
 

So neither team are the most comfortable in possession and controlling the game. 
 

This won’t suit our usual ‘smash & grab’ away performances. We’re gonna have to ‘control’ this game if we want to win it. 

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