BIG summer ahead- Rebuild opportunities, perhaps a necessity.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I am making the following assumptions for the purposes of this post.

We will still be a Championship club. Probably won't go up this season but at the same time we're certainly not relegation fodder.

Wage cap for players will be in. £18m mooted with the usual clauses etc. Usual wage counted as average but paid in full for those still under contract.

We as a nation, a planet will hopefully be returning to a fair degree of normality.

Quite a lot of players have contract up in the summer. Quite a lot from memory but a while since I've looked tbh!

People said the rebuild was this summer is 2020 post LJ, maybe it'll be summer 2021.

What's the strategy?

[archie andrews]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I am making the following assumption for the purposes of this post.

We will still be a Championship club. Probably won't go up this season but at the same time we're certainly not relegation fodder.

Quite a lot

Ill be happy to stay up at the moment because we aint gonna win many more games this season with the personnel staying the same for the foreseeable 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, archie andrews said:

Ill be happy to stay up at the moment because we aint gonna win many more games this season with the personnel staying the same for the foreseeable 

I believe the injuries will start to ease, this will help with depth, quality and rotation and hopefully this will be reflected in results over time.

[Mr Popodopolous]

@Davefevs you're usually good with this kinda thing, any idea who is out of contract in summer? Hunt, Baker, Paterson and I think Weimann are 4 from memory.

[Bassomylord]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

@Davefevs you're usually good with this kinda thing, any idea who is out of contract in summer? Hunt, Baker, Paterson and I think Weimann are 4 from memory.

Be surprised if we offer Pato a new deal. Time for him to have a fresh challenge. Pretty sure that Weimann will be offered one. Seems to be loved by the coaches. Walsh I think is another one......plus the likes of Nagy? Having 1 year left.....Will look to sell i imagine

[Fordy62]

I’d have a lot more confidence in a rebuild if I had confidence in the man doing the rebuild. 

I have absolutely nothing against DH. He talks straight and says the right things, but realistically what confidence can we have that he’ll bring a positive brand of football or success?

Essentially we’ve appointed a long shot who had a good interview, when we could’ve appointed someone whose football is well evidenced and in plain sight for all to see. 

I don’t necessarily want to see DH sacked, he doesn’t deserve that yet, not be a long shot from the yard stick SL created in his handling of LJ, however, do I want to see him be allowed to rebuild? I’m not sure I want that either. 

In reality, as much as Holden seems a nice bloke, it was a ******* horrendous gamble whether it works out in the long term or not. 

[JoeAman08]

From memory many are out of contract. This helps a rebuild from a wages standpoint. Does it help the transfer budget though? We have exhausted all our best resources the last few seasons. I don’t see a 5m player in this squad at the minute. Don’t feel coming out of a covid season will be beneficial to a rebuild. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

14 minutes ago, Bassomylord said:

Be surprised if we offer Pato a new deal. Time for him to have a fresh challenge. Pretty sure that Weimann will be offered one. Seems to be loved by the coaches. Walsh I think is another one......plus the likes of Nagy? Having 1 year left.....Will look to sell i imagine

Walsh, well remembered. Hope he extends here, shame he's injured! Wouldn't mind keeping Nagy. Club have an option on Weimann?

Think Rowe and Brunt oh and of course Diedhiou all out of contract as well.

@JoeAman08 We'll likely be coming into a wage cap world. Good and bad but something all clubs must factor in.

Assuming that FFP replaced by it and those 7-8 out of contract, that gives us £5.04m-£5.76m to play with as a starting point!

In wages I mean, in terms of replacements. Think allowances exist for under 21s eg.

[Carey 6]

Who's out of contract? @Davefevs

I know Fam, Rowe, Walsh and Paterson are. 

I doubt Rowe is on much, so I'd be tempted to offer him a year with an option of a second but I doubt he'd take that & will get plenty 2 year offers elsewhere. 

Fam would've signed by now if he wanted to stay, perhaps we sell in Jan to raise some funds. 

Walsh - Who knows, unknown at this level. 

Paterson - Let go, we need to be ruthless & aim for players who we can get a bit more consistency out of. 

[Bassomylord]

Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

Walsh, well remembered. Hope he extends here, shame he's injured! Wouldn't mind keeping Nagy.

Think Rowe and Brunt oh and of course Diedhiou all out of contract as well.

Would be surprised if they are kept on.

[AG City]

I think this lot are either OOC or loans will expire.  Massive opportunity for someone (?)   Joe Wollacott Jack Hunt Alfie Mawson Nathan Baker Steven Sessegnon Liam Walsh Tommy Rowe Chris Brunt Famara Diédhiou Jamie Paterson Andreas Weimann Marley Watkins Hakeeb Adelakun James Morton

[tin]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I am making the following assumptions for the purposes of this post.

We will still be a Championship club. Probably won't go up this season but at the same time we're certainly not relegation fodder.

Wage cap for players will be in. £18m mooted with the usual clauses etc. Usual wage counted as average but paid in full for those still under contract.

We as a nation, a planet will hopefully be returning to a fair degree of normality.

Quite a lot of players have contract up in the summer. Quite a lot from memory but a while since I've looked tbh!

People said the rebuild was this summer is 2020 post LJ, maybe it'll be summer 2021.

What's the strategy?

While I don't think we're relegation fodder, recent performances certainly are and the most concerning thing of all is the lack of fight or desire to compete. Only nine points currently separate us in 8th and Coventry in 18th. I would not be surprised if we get dragged down to lower mid-table. We need another 26 points or so to be safe, IMO.

What's the strategy with Ashton and JL at the helm is anyone's guess. If I was involved, the first thing to do would be to get a proper manager in before the end of the season so they can assess what they have before the season ends. Then big decisions need to be made on players whose contracts are expiring. That should provide much-needed breathing space on the wage bill for the new manager to rebuild. 

[Fordy62]

11 minutes ago, AG City said:

I think this lot are either OOC or loans will expire.  Massive opportunity for someone (?)   Joe Wollacott Jack Hunt Alfie Mawson Nathan Baker Steven Sessegnon Liam Walsh Tommy Rowe Chris Brunt Famara Diédhiou Jamie Paterson Andreas Weimann Marley Watkins Hakeeb Adelakun James Morton

If it were my decision and not their own, I’d keep;

Hunt, Walsh, Rowe, Diedhiou, Weimann. 

I don’t know anything of Morton. 

[AG City]

I can't see Walsh being here next season.  Like Diedhiou, if he was going to sign a contract he would have done it by now.  I know everyone likes to point to a good 45 mins against a poor Stoke side, but in reality he has been here 3 years in Jan and has played a grand total of 15 games for us.  I just get the feeling he has written off this season, live back up north and run down his contract and join someone on a free in the summer.

[GrahamC]

17 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

If it were my decision and not their own, I’d keep;

Hunt, Walsh, Rowe, Diedhiou, Weimann. 

I don’t know anything of Morton. 

Academic, he signed a 4 year deal about a year ago.

[LoyalRed]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I am making the following assumptions for the purposes of this post.

We will still be a Championship club. Probably won't go up this season but at the same time we're certainly not relegation fodder.

Wage cap for players will be in. £18m mooted with the usual clauses etc. Usual wage counted as average but paid in full for those still under contract.

We as a nation, a planet will hopefully be returning to a fair degree of normality.

Quite a lot of players have contract up in the summer. Quite a lot from memory but a while since I've looked tbh!

People said the rebuild was this summer is 2020 post LJ, maybe it'll be summer 2021.

What's the strategy?

It’s a long old season after the new year unfortunately and we are already losing too many games , league one is on the horizon unfortunately but kind of expected it anyway.  Sack consistency and replace with assistant to progress ?’ Never gonna happen 

[JoeAman08]

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Walsh, well remembered. Hope he extends here, shame he's injured! Wouldn't mind keeping Nagy. Club have an option on Weimann?

Think Rowe and Brunt oh and of course Diedhiou all out of contract as well.

@JoeAman08 We'll likely be coming into a wage cap world. Good and bad but something all clubs must factor in.

Assuming that FFP replaced by it and those 7-8 out of contract, that gives us £5.04m-£5.76m to play with as a starting point!

In wages I mean, in terms of replacements. Think allowances exist for under 21s eg.

Does that mean we can spend 15m on a player if he is on with 25-30k a week wages? For example anyway. Or is this on top of the 39m loss over 3 seasons?

[Merrick's Marvels]

1 hour ago, AG City said:

I think this lot are either OOC or loans will expire.  Massive opportunity for someone (?)   Joe Wollacott Jack Hunt Alfie Mawson Nathan Baker Steven Sessegnon Liam Walsh Tommy Rowe Chris Brunt Famara Diédhiou Jamie Paterson Andreas Weimann Marley Watkins Hakeeb Adelakun James Morton

Take out the loanees who we won't be keeping anyway and there's not many there that I'd keep, no matter who's head coach. So yes, a big opportunity for someone to re-shape the squad. Even if it's just promoting a load of young uns rather than shelling out millions on transfer fees and high-end (for us) wages. 

[RiverRed]

1 hour ago, LoyalRed said:

It’s a long old season after the new year unfortunately and we are already losing too many games , league one is on the horizon unfortunately but kind of expected it anyway.  Sack consistency and replace with assistant to progress ?’ Never gonna happen 

Is it? Do you think we're on for relegation?

[pongo88]

What’s the point? I can’t imagine Holden being sacked this season unless City sink into a relegation fight. The injuries will be justification for giving him another season. Next season might be a bit better than this, even if there is a rebuild, but I’m not optimistic of promotion. Better to save money for any big signings until SL realises he’s made a mistake an appoints someone with relevant experience 

[AG City]

If we finish bottom half I wouldn't give Holden or the two coaches next season.  We will be in a position where we will need to bring in a number of new faces due to the amount of players (and big earners at that) being out of contract.  We have become too much of a cushy number again with fancy facilities, big wages paid out and no real desire to push to the next level.  Need to be very careful who we bring in, and not base every transfer decision on whether we can turn a profit on them.

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

3 hours ago, Bassomylord said:

Be surprised if we offer Pato a new deal. Time for him to have a fresh challenge. Pretty sure that Weimann will be offered one. Seems to be loved by the coaches. Walsh I think is another one......plus the likes of Nagy? Having 1 year left.....Will look to sell i imagine

Maybe, but in the past couple of weeks we’ve missed Pato more than anybody.

[Alessandro]

Where are we going to finish this season?

Continue last 6 games form: 1 point a game = finishing in 57 points, which last season would have been around 15th.

Continue last 10 games form: 1.6 points a game = finishing on 72/73 points, which last season would have been 6th.

So unless we really capitulate, relegation is unlikely.

You've got to think we'll run out of steam as the season concludes...so looking at those numbers there, 10-12th?

 

Why ask this? Well is that acceptable? As @Fordy62 and others have said, we probably need a re-build. Perhaps the club were wrong when thinking only a few things needed changing from LJ hence appointing DH.

So the real question is, is DH the right man for that re-build? If they honestly believe yes, well this chat is pointless, we all know SL just digs his heels in when challenged and will hang on hoping to be "proved right". I honestly can't imagine Holden going before this time next year unless we're on the end of a couple 4/5-nils.

For me though, if DH is not turning out to be that man, why waste time and money? The wrong manager could really set us back, seasons. Big questions to be asked, top to bottom IMO.

Echo as before, nothing against DH and the fact is in his defence, the figures above show the margins are tight. There is still time to turn the ship around this season but the warning signs along the way are the worry.

[Davefevs]

5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

@Davefevs you're usually good with this kinda thing, any idea who is out of contract in summer? Hunt, Baker, Paterson and I think Weimann are 4 from memory.

 

4 hours ago, Carey 6 said:

Who's out of contract? @Davefevs

I know Fam, Rowe, Walsh and Paterson are. 

I doubt Rowe is on much, so I'd be tempted to offer him a year with an option of a second but I doubt he'd take that & will get plenty 2 year offers elsewhere. 

Fam would've signed by now if he wanted to stay, perhaps we sell in Jan to raise some funds. 

Walsh - Who knows, unknown at this level. 

Paterson - Let go, we need to be ruthless & aim for players who we can get a bit more consistency out of. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 hours ago, tin said:

While I don't think we're relegation fodder, recent performances certainly are and the most concerning thing of all is the lack of fight or desire to compete. Only nine points currently separate us in 8th and Coventry in 18th. I would not be surprised if we get dragged down to lower mid-table. We need another 26 points or so to be safe, IMO.

What's the strategy with Ashton and JL at the helm is anyone's guess. If I was involved, the first thing to do would be to get a proper manager in before the end of the season so they can assess what they have before the season ends. Then big decisions need to be made on players whose contracts are expiring. That should provide much-needed breathing space on the wage bill for the new manager to rebuild. 

26??

Doubt the 3rd bottom side will hit 50 this year. I know there are a number of big sides down there and teams can rally in general but that would be a record or close to, 56 pts to stay up?

Agree, last two performances especially very poor. However in recent weeks it's been more a case of pick the good- Blackburn home, Watford home  2nd half and QPR away 2nd half? About it IMO.

Should already be planning now I hope, as a club. Who takes charge of the team should be an open topic, Holden after all is only on a 12 month rolling deal.

[pillred]

3 hours ago, markcarter said:

Continue to play like the last 2 performances & relegation becomes a real prospect and we’ll be looking for good League One players again.  We’re certainly amongst the worst few teams in the division right now.  You can still get 50-1 but you’ll have to be quick.

We are a bit similar to Hull last season and we all know what happened there, pinning our hopes on players to come back from injury is risky to say the least.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 

Thanks Dave, knew you'd have it.

Some of the names on that list, Kinnell! Freddie Hinds for one!

Had a quick scan and young players aside, seems like we only definitely have 14 first team squad players who will be in contract going into next season ie after summer 2021. Palmer too, who knows what his future holds.

Big opportunity for someone, but if we get it wrong it could set us back years! Still think we should have kept Morrell. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, pillred said:

We are a bit similar to Hull last season and we all know what happened there, pinning our hopes on players to come back from injury is risky to say the least.

They sold Bowen and Grosicki in January. Went into freefall after that!

[pongo88]

3 hours ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Maybe, but in the past couple of weeks we’ve missed Pato more than anybody.

We missed something, but it’s not necessarily Pato. It could be him or someone else. Probably two players. One with some fight (not literally) and one with real creativity. If we could get one player with both attributes even better. 

[Wade Wilson]

The combination of Brexit and COVID is gonna make the Jan and summer windows an absolute shit show. 
 

I’d say we should pivot to the Brentford model of buying cheap on the continent but that avenue is totally closed now. 
 

So, best bet is give our own kids a chance and maybe get lucky with some loans.