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Do Empty Stadiums Affect Outcomes? The Data Says Yes

Just my observation trying to find a reason why City do not perform at home, extracts plus link to article.

''The performances of home teams in the Bundesliga have, for all intents and purposes, collapsed in front of empty stands. The number of home victories slipped by 10 percentage points, to 33 percent of matches in empty stadiums from 43 percent in full ones.

The change has been so extreme, in fact, that Lukas Keppler, a managing director of the data and analytics firm Impect, noted a sort of “negative home advantage.” For the first time in soccer history, he said, it has appeared, at times, to be easier to be playing on the road.''

 

''Another aspect of home-field advantage that has been exposed in Germany is the impact a crowd can have on a referee. A considerable body of academic research, in fact, has long suggested that “all or part of home advantage” is down to “refereeing decisions being subconsciously in favor of the home team,” Gleave pointed out.

That idea now can step out off the page and into real life. In the 83 matches Gracenote analyzed, home teams were penalized more for fouls in empty stadiums than they generally were when the stands were full. They also had seen, perhaps not surprisingly, an increase in the number of yellow cards they were awarded.''

 
 

Both teams committed more fouls in empty stadiums than they had in full ones — perhaps a sign that referees, without a crowd to consider, have felt empowered to enforce the rules more rigidly. But there has been a significant shift in culpability: After the restart, hosts committed more fouls than their guests.

“The increase in yellow cards and fouls by the home team in matches behind closed doors appears to confirm the hypothesis,” Gleave said.

According to data provided by another analysis firm, Gracenote, home teams scored fewer goals than they had in full stadiums (1.74 to 1.43 per game), leading to a decline in goal scoring over all.

They also took fewer shots (a decrease of 10 percent), and those that they did take were worse. (The probability of any given shot ending up as a goal dropped more than a point, to 11.11 percent.) Home teams, the research found, also attempted fewer crosses, won fewer corners and tried fewer dribbles.''

Indeed, in empty stadiums, visiting players no longer need to feel they are playing against 12 opponents. The corollary of that, of course, is perhaps more significant: In normal times, perhaps the field was not quite as even as it should have been.

While industry and effort might have remained unchanged, Gleave saw in his figures — fewer shots, fewer dribbles, fewer home wins — proof that something was missing.

His conclusion, one that many fans watching might instinctively uphold, is that the urge to entertain diminishes if there is nobody to respond. Games since the restart have featured, on average, 16 more passes than normal, a signal to Gleave that players, subconsciously or not, are “choosing to pass the ball rather than attempt plays which would normally get fans on their feet.”

And yet similar data sets can give rise to different conclusions. Impect’s signature statistic is a metric called packing: a way of measuring how many opponents are bypassed by each and every action — whether a pass or a dribble — a player makes. “It measures the effectiveness of a team’s buildup,” Keppler said, and it has been, essentially, unchanged since the restart. “The overall quality of the game remained the same.”

 
 

That finding is not necessarily contrary to Gleave’s data, and it is not a riposte to Arsène Wenger’s assertion that soccer would lose some of its magic if it endured a prolonged period without fans. Teams run just as much as they did. They are no less talented than they were in March.

But the absence of fans — the cavernous stadiums, the oppressive silence, the sense of unreality — changed, somehow, the way the players expressed that talent, the way they approached the game. It created a more cautious, more mechanical approach, focused on the end result more than the process.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/sports/soccer/soccer-without-fans-germany-data.html

 

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24 minutes ago, Banjo Island said:

Someone always looking for an excuse its plain and simple we are SHITE

Too true Banjo, tedious unwatchable shite too.

My pace would not be quickening in eager anticipation as I approached AG should I be unfortunate enough to be allocated a ticket in the near future.

More likely I wouldn't have left the house in the first place!

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8 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

Too true Banjo, tedious unwatchable shite too.

My pace would not be quickening in eager anticipation as I approached AG should I be unfortunate enough to be allocated a ticket in the near future.

More likely I wouldn't have left the house in the first place!

????it pains me to admit it noggers but i havent enjoyed my football at the gate for a very long time my son who is my best mate has lost intrest and dont want to go anymore ??i dont go expecting to win every game but i would like to see us compete and maybe  couple of minuetes of exciting attacking football but it seems we have perfected the 90 min borefest game after game

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I haven't walked to AG with a spring in my step for about 3 years now. (No its not my age). I expect and usually get a turgid  dull performance that has me out of my seat with frustration rather than exitement. Even when we have won, the walk/talk home has been about how negative we play. This season has been gradually getting worse but its nothing to do with the lack of fans. That applies to all clubs. 

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I have no interest in returning currently. The last couple of years have been pretty dire, and as much as I miss going to AG, I can honestly say I am not missing the football. After the Millwall game, not I have even lost the desire to watch at home.

 

The club really need a change of direction if they are expecting season ticket sales to be strong in 2021

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1 hour ago, Banjo Island said:

????it pains me to admit it noggers but i havent enjoyed my football at the gate for a very long time my son who is my best mate has lost intrest and dont want to go anymore ??i dont go expecting to win every game but i would like to see us compete and maybe  couple of minuetes of exciting attacking football but it seems we have perfected the 90 min borefest game after game

I went down with my son for close on 20 years - first took him down aged 4 and we barely missed a game from then on until he moved away. This was after decades of going down with mates in various stands and in all divisions.

My wife took his season ticket over, loved going down the Gate under Cotts, but then completely lost interest under LJ's crap so I've been plodding down on my own for the last 2 seasons.

You can imagine how much I've enjoyed it!  

Bloody hell, City have been so boring these last few years and so, to me, is the experience of being at the new Ashton Gate.

Give me some fast paced attacking football to get up and shout about at Ashton Gate, far more important to me than which division we're in.

Stick your tippy tappy, sideways passing, F-all happening, and meaningless 'possession' stats where the sun don't shine.

How could any parent enthuse their child to watch this seemingly never ending tedious b******s?

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14 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

 

My wife took his season ticket over, loved going down the Gate under Cotts, but then completely lost interest under LJ's crap so I've been plodding down on my own for the last 2 seasons.

You can imagine how much I've enjoyed it!  

Bloody hell, City have been so boring these last few years and so, to me, is the experience of being at the new Ashton Gate.

Give me some fast paced attacking football to get up and shout about at Ashton Gate, far more important to me than which division we're in.

Stick your tippy tappy, sideways passing, F-all happening, and meaningless 'possession' stats where the sun don't shine.

How could any parent enthuse their child to watch this seemingly never ending tedious b******s?

This sums it up for me, at the end we were struggling big time under Cotts but I never once came out thinking everyone that he picked wasn’t giving it absolutely everything, (I remember Agard, a limited player chasing opposition players down like his life depended on it v Wolves).

Supporters will get behind that, not the tedium we have been served up in recent years.

 

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17 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

I went down with my son for close on 20 years - first took him down aged 4 and we barely missed a game from then on until he moved away. This was after decades of going down with mates in various stands and in all divisions.

My wife took his season ticket over, loved going down the Gate under Cotts, but then completely lost interest under LJ's crap so I've been plodding down on my own for the last 2 seasons.

You can imagine how much I've enjoyed it!  

Bloody hell, City have been so boring these last few years and so, to me, is the experience of being at the new Ashton Gate.

Give me some fast paced attacking football to get up and shout about at Ashton Gate, far more important to me than which division we're in.

Stick your tippy tappy, sideways passing, F-all happening, and meaningless 'possession' stats where the sun don't shine.

How could any parent enthuse their child to watch this seemingly never ending tedious b******s?

Your story sounds very similar to mine Nogbad, the only difference being, that I stopped going two years ago. 

Ive watched highlights for the last two years, and obviously been able to watch a lot of full games on the tv lately. I will not be coming back to AG in the foreseeable future to watch football. It’s not the game for me anymore, it’s dull and negative rubbish.

I watch plenty of live football now, but non league football where the majority of games give me something I can’t get at AG.....entertainment. 

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39 minutes ago, Fiale said:

I have no interest in returning currently. The last couple of years have been pretty dire, and as much as I miss going to AG, I can honestly say I am not missing the football. After the Millwall game, not I have even lost the desire to watch at home.

 

The club really need a change of direction if they are expecting season ticket sales to be strong in 2021

I said exactly the same to friends last night

We have been watching turgid dull football at home for years now.

I realised I was only really going to catch up with friends and before and after the game was the only reason I had any interest in going

Away days were fun as it was a day out with like minded people and again meeting up with different friends

For me I have no interest in going back to watching football, and the longer I stay away the less likely it is I will go back

15 minutes ago, steveybadger said:

Not away from home - until Saturday we had more points away from home than anybody. 

Problem is we can set up away from home to expect the home side to come at us and up to now have been getting away with it

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56 minutes ago, phantom said:

I said exactly the same to friends last night

We have been watching turgid dull football at home for years now.

I realised I was only really going to catch up with friends and before and after the game was the only reason I had any interest in going

Away days were fun as it was a day out with like minded people and again meeting up with different friends

For me I have no interest in going back to watching football, and the longer I stay away the less likely it is I will go back

Problem is we can set up away from home to expect the home side to come at us and up to now have been getting away with it

‘Getting away with it’ - maybe a couple this season but then you make your own luck (up to a point). But away record isn’t bad last season or so either....

just need that bit of creative spark at home......

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2 hours ago, steveybadger said:

‘Getting away with it’ - maybe a couple this season but then you make your own luck (up to a point). But away record isn’t bad last season or so either....

just need that bit of creative spark at home......

If only that was all we needed

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