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This makes grim reading...

spudski

By spudski
in Football Chat

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ExiledAjax

ExiledAjax

Posted
Posted

Agree. It effectively confirms what people have started to see with their eyes, but has been part of our game for at least 18 months now. The past half dozen games have been particularly bad, but we've been producing these numbers for all of last season and most of this one as well.

We allow an awful lot of shots, and rely on the fact that we force them to be of poor quality, and that Bentley is a good shotstopper, to keep the goals down. Blackburn recently is a good example of this working, as is the Forest game from earlier in the season.

Further forward we rely on strikers who can finish (and they actually can, both Wells and Fam have good conversion rates, although I've not looked at Martin and Semenyo) to put away a decent number of goals for a low number of high quality shots.

It works sometimes, but for me it's not a recipe for consistent success. If a team disrupts any part of our game then the whole thing falls apart. I also hate just letting the opposing side shoot 15-20 times a game.

Ultimately it is also excruciating to watch.

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DT The Optimist

DT The Optimist

Posted
Posted

Opps.

That is certainly food for thought re the three wise men and staff.... if supporters can see the obvious I am sure DH can.... DH certainly believes fortunes will turn in new year with return of players (as quoted to McGergor) and I will give him this season...

The excellent charts also back up the fact we have got away with a few this year, by that 3 points against the odds, Forest, Coventry, QPR  and more where it seemed like Bents v the world..

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Davefevs

Davefevs

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Posted
47 minutes ago, spudski said:

....an overworked defence and one of the worst attacking sides.

https://experimental361.com/2020/12/20/scatter-graphics-championship-20-dec-2020/

I follow Ben, saw those these morning.

34 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Agree. It effectively confirms what people have started to see with their eyes, but has been part of our game for at least 18 months now. The past half dozen games have been particularly bad, but we've been producing these numbers for all of last season and most of this one as well.

We allow an awful lot of shots, and rely on the fact that we force them to be of poor quality, and that Bentley is a good shotstopper, to keep the goals down. Blackburn recently is a good example of this working, as is the Forest game from earlier in the season.

Further forward we rely on strikers who can finish (and they actually can, both Wells and Fam have good conversion rates, although I've not looked at Martin and Semenyo) to put away a decent number of goals for a low number of high quality shots.

It works sometimes, but for me it's not a recipe for consistent success. If a team disrupts any part of our game then the whole thing falls apart. I also hate just letting the opposing side shoot 15-20 times a game.

Ultimately it is also excruciating to watch.

We’d actually started to reverse the trend in the opening 8 games(ish).

We’d increased our own shots, whilst reducing opposition numbers, both total, on target and xG, but of late it’s dropped off a cliff.

Two good examples though.  Forest was a funny one, because Bentley’s wonder save from Christie’s long ranger was just 0.06 xG, Freeman’s goal just 0.04.  Blackburn we had 3 of the 4 best chances.

22 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That's a bit strong but after the first 8-10 games of this season, there's been a sharp decline...

I’d agree that it’s been a season of two halves, or possibly being critical opening 8 vs last 12.

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ExiledAjax

ExiledAjax

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

 But does a season ever go well all season? There good and not so good bits. And with our injury list we are in a not so good patch. And when we are fully fit. We would hope for a good patch. And aspire for mid table mediocrity 

This is true, and as pointed out by @Davefevs and @Mr Popodopolous there were some better numbers early in the season. First few games we were hitting 12 or 13 shots on average (last few we've been down at 9), so a 25% drop off. Of those 12 or 13 about 4 were hitting the target, in our last 6 we've been doing that just 2.5 times per game. Another big drop. I said at the time that those numbers were better, but they still weren't the kind of figures generally posted by a top 4 team. You did see play off teams with those numbers, but they're rare.

For me that thing is it doesn't tally with the coach's stated aim. Holden states the aim is promotion, and the aim is 2 goals per game. Well, if you look at the past 18 months of games the team and players we have need to create and take about 8 or 9 shots to score 1 goal. The graphs @spudski posted show these numbers, as do my own calculations.

So if you want to score twice with our team you're going to need to create and take about 16-18 shots per game. Sometimes that will get you 2, sometimes 1, maybe 3 or 4 on a good day. But on average, across a 46 game season, that should be the target. We are currently operating at 50% of that, and so can reasonably expect to score 1 goal per game, as you can't score a fraction of a goal, this will often in fact result in 0 goals - as we know all too well from recent games.

To me that says there is a fundamental mismatch in the stated aims and what we put into practice. Of course this ignores defence and goals allowed, but that's another conversation. 

How is it fixed? I don't know, it's not my full-time job and I'm not payed 6 figures to work that out. But something needs to change or we are only going to continue falling horribly short of our stated ambitions.

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Banjo Island

Banjo Island

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33 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

 But does a season ever go well all season? There good and not so good bits. And with our injury list we are in a not so good patch. And when we are fully fit. We would hope for a good patch. And aspire for mid table mediocrity 

Cyril our not so good patch has lasted nigh on 2 1/2 seasons now

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ExiledAjax

ExiledAjax

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19 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

We’d actually started to reverse the trend in the opening 8 games(ish).

We’d increased our own shots, whilst reducing opposition numbers, both total, on target and xG, but of late it’s dropped off a cliff.

Two good examples though.  Forest was a funny one, because Bentley’s wonder save from Christie’s long ranger was just 0.06 xG, Freeman’s goal just 0.04.  Blackburn we had 3 of the 4 best chances.

The thing is it all just looks depressingly similar to last season's pattern. Even in those opening 8 games we only had two matches where took more shots than the opposition. Since then we've done that twice more. The numbers for shots on target make better reading, and early on the delta was in our favour, but that still means a reliance on a low number of good shots - so any reduction because of quality opposition has a greater impact on our likelihood of scoring.

Ultimately though those better numbers are the one reason I'm not quite in the Holden out camp. Those early numbers suggest that with a full squad we can challenge for, and with luck achieve, 6th place. However, if we are serious about automatic promotion I think we'll need a change.

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BCFC Rich

BCFC Rich

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Posted

When we played five at the back early in the sesson and even now to a point - we try to stop the opposition working the ball into the box. We have actually been pretty effective at this at times, especially earlier in the season. This results in the opposition taking long shots that have a much lower chance of going in. 

 

It has felt to me that first hald we are more contained and don't mind the opposition having possession and wearing themselves out. We then push harder second half when they are more worn out. This means we are often less entertaining first half, opposition get high possession stats (we don't mind them having the ball, if they can't find a way through us), and they end up shooting from range - hence a high number of shots

 

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GrahamC

GrahamC

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Posted

To me there are 2 possibilities;

Once we get some semblance of whatever Holden believes is his best 11 out (highly unlikely that we have seen it in the last ten games with between 7 & 10 missing) then either we will revert to the early season form (won the first 4, some decent results apart from that) or the stuff of the last 8 games is the “new normal” & we will drop to a bottom third side.

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Davefevs

Davefevs

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28 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

When we played five at the back early in the sesson and even now to a point - we try to stop the opposition working the ball into the box. We have actually been pretty effective at this at times, especially earlier in the season. This results in the opposition taking long shots that have a much lower chance of going in. 

 

It has felt to me that first hald we are more contained and don't mind the opposition having possession and wearing themselves out. We then push harder second half when they are more worn out. This means we are often less entertaining first half, opposition get high possession stats (we don't mind them having the ball, if they can't find a way through us), and they end up shooting from range - hence a high number of shots

 

If that is the genuine tactic, I think it’s flawed. First goal is important and we’ve seen across the season chasing a game is hard. 

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Galley is our king

Galley is our king

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1 hour ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

(Bentley)

Sessegnon Mawson Baker Dasilva

Williams Brunt

Weimann Walsh Paterson

(Diedhiou)

Decent team, that.

Forget about who is in there the op is trying to show that apart from those in brackets NONE of the other players listed are available!!!!!

Just goes to show just how bad our injury situation is.

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BCFC Rich

BCFC Rich

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58 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

If that is the genuine tactic, I think it’s flawed. First goal is important and we’ve seen across the season chasing a game is hard. 

I don't think part of the tactic is not trying to score ourselves. It's just a lot of teams are set up with a high press and in possession to work an opening. Whatever people think of Holden we are well disciplined and organized at the back and with 5 its very difficult for side to break us down. Honestly if the opposition are going to press and harass and expend energy I don't mind that. I don't think defense has been out problem. 

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Rocking Red Cyril

Rocking Red Cyril

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52 minutes ago, Banjo Island said:

A lot higher than the  current shite thats being dished up thats for sure

Yeah, but what ever the result I or performance I will always be a City fan. So it is what it is. You need it not so good at times to really enjoy the better times. So I see no point in getting all a tizz with a couple of poor performances

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Davefevs

Davefevs

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39 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

I don't think part of the tactic is not trying to score ourselves. It's just a lot of teams are set up with a high press and in possession to work an opening. Whatever people think of Holden we are well disciplined and organized at the back and with 5 its very difficult for side to break us down. Honestly if the opposition are going to press and harass and expend energy I don't mind that. I don't think defense has been out problem. 

I think very few sides are set up to high press, Barnsley are one though.  Most teams are setting up to press from halfway line.  Too much energy being expelled from gegen-press...especially if you’re bad at it.

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Banjo Island

Banjo Island

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13 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Yeah, but what ever the result I or performance I will always be a City fan. So it is what it is. You need it not so good at times to really enjoy the better times. So I see no point in getting all a tizz with a couple of poor performances

A couple wtf are u on about it bin hideous for almost 3 years cyril

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Rocking Red Cyril

Rocking Red Cyril

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8 minutes ago, Banjo Island said:

A couple wtf are u on about it bin hideous for almost 3 years cyril

We have not been relegated in that time.  So not see a problem. Yes the football could be better but it is what it is. We are only a big club in Bristol. 

I really think you are expecting too much 

 

 

 

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Bristol Oil Services

Bristol Oil Services

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Posted
4 hours ago, GasDestroyer said:

We are playing some of the worst football in many years. Struggling to get motivated to watch City currently.  Might take up watching the rugby in 2021?

The Bristol/Clermont cup game was the most entertaining event at AG since City v Man Utd in December '17, bar none. I didn't check OTIB once throughout the 80 minutes. An outstanding sporting contest and spectacle. 

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