Diedhiou contract

[westex red]

7 hours ago, Olé said:

Like others I also sadly think he's going or at least is still being touted around - I read absolutely nothing into Dean Holden's feedback about what Fam told him since returning, as I can't imagine a scenario where Fam would say anything but positive things to appease and please him. It's the agent who is paid to do the uncomfortable stuff. 

With that said, I'm still not convinced by Ligue 1 as his destination. Watching some of the prior interviews from Senegalese TV and looking at the career arcs of players who have moved from France, I'm not sure going back to that league, particularly a smaller club, would look like anything other than a backwards step vs the hype.

The Championship was and is seen as a step up unless you're talking about PSG, Lyon and a few others. He told one Senegalese channel he was looking to make it to the Premier League. On another he was talked up as going to Fenerbache and playing in Europe. Will be a bit odd to then sign for a small club in the league he came from.

Think you're right Rob!

(Pete who used to sit in front of you in the Dolman with Ray) 

[Tangle Foot]

3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

A problem with 3-5-2 is if you are the opposition, then you can really hinder a side by pinning back, overloading or isolating the wingbacks- of course if you have players comfortable with pulling wider in other phases- perhaps Moore to help out RWB, maybe Paterson in CM to pull left and help DaSilva this will work around it.

Palmer won't be applicable to the latter. Wingbacks are integral to the success or failure of a 3-5-2 though.

I don't disagree that wing-backs, in a 3 at the back formation, are intergral to its success or failure. I do strongly believe that almost as important, maybe more so even, is having 2 wide centre-backs that are comfortable going in the full back area (out wide). If they can play, or have played, full-back as well, then even better. Ideally they would be reasonably pacey too (a typical full-back attribute).

I have to admit, I've always liked the 3 at the back formation, however you lay it out - 3-5-2, 3-4-1-2, 3-4-2-1, 3-4-3, or 3-2-3-2 (although I don't think I've ever seen this one in action). 

COYR.

[Davefevs]

36 minutes ago, Tangle Foot said:

I don't disagree that wing-backs, in a 3 at the back formation, are intergral to its success or failure. I do strongly believe that almost as important, maybe more so even, is having 2 wide centre-backs that are comfortable going in the full back area (out wide). If they can play, or have played, full-back as well, then even better. Ideally they would be reasonably pacey too (a typical full-back attribute).

I have to admit, I've always liked the 3 at the back formation, however you lay it out - 3-5-2, 3-4-1-2, 3-4-2-1, 3-4-3, or 3-2-3-2 (although I don't think I've ever seen this one in action). 

COYR.

Lots of sense in that TF.

Having played as the RCB in a 3 lots of times, you’ve got to be prepared to cover a lot of space behind the RWB, as it is an obvious out ball for the opposition.  But the middle CB and LCB (in this scenario) have got to shift across too.

I like this pic of Derby (a) last season, showing the shift across.  As the move progresses Taylor Moore (RCB) and Jack Hunt (RWB) shift across too.

Kasey Palmer and Massengo ensure Tommy Rowe (LWB) isn’t left on his own too.

[Jerseybean]

Like many others I hope he stays and signs a new contract, it means zip I know but he certainly appeared to be his usual smiling self at the training session on the OS.

[AshtonRobin21]

I'm amazed that Stade Brest have just paid £5m for Steve Mounie (Huddersfield). His goalscoring record during his time in England has been questionable for that outlay. 

You would think that Fam is a better option for them than Mounie, especially with his contract running out. 

[Davefevs]

France got some money by the sounds of it.  

[bcfc01]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

France got some money by the sounds of it.  

https://psgtalk.com/2020/05/overall-ligue-1-is-unprofitable-a-detailed-explainer-of-french-football-finances/

[George Rs]

Myself, I love fam and I would 100% want him to stay and if you watch his highlights at city and the failand video released today it seems to me he loves being at city as well.

Not many people who could replace him that are good enough and in our price range. Like a few others have said he’s one of those players who you don’t know how much he brought till you lose him and over the recent years it frustrates me to see us sell our players after they have a Good season. I get the business side of football is ever growing these days but it  is slightly annoying.

That being said if he does leave, for the shits and giggles I think DH should at least enquire about akinfenwa 

[Garland-sweden]

Got the feeling Famara gonna sign the contract for us.

[Port Said Red]

9 hours ago, Jerseybean said:

Like many others I hope he stays and signs a new contract, it means zip I know but he certainly appeared to be his usual smiling self at the training session on the OS.

That’s a big smile isn’t it? He certainly looked happy but is that because he is staying, or because he knows he’s going back to France?

 

[marcofisher]

20 hours ago, BOSRed said:

Wages will still be a big thing and Fam being one of our higher earners balances the books somewhat when it comes to wages. Williams, Martin, brunt, Mawson and sessegnon can’t be cheap when it comes to wages

He hasn’t only made 14 appearances for Fulham after coming through their youth team...can’t  imagine he is on a super contract and that we are paying all of it if so? 

[Phileas Fogg]

21 hours ago, BOSRed said:

Wages will still be a big thing and Fam being one of our higher earners balances the books somewhat when it comes to wages. Williams, Martin, brunt, Mawson and sessegnon can’t be cheap when it comes to wages

Between them they'll be on good money but remember we're also not paying wages for the likes of Benkovic, Afobe, Pereira etc. 

[mozo]

12 hours ago, Davefevs said:

France got some money by the sounds of it.  

Rennes have some Euros to chuck around because they've got Champions League football (their 1st time?), and are also sitting on the Camavinga goldmine which will doubtless be plundered next summer, unless that is the Covid austerity situation continues.

That would be an incredible move for Fam, but as far as far know they play one up top and have a few options for that role already. They haven't been linked with him but the kind of step up that he might be hoping for.

[Fatalist]

13 hours ago, westex red said:

Don't want Fam to leave, would have to replace him with a striker and a top defender, he fills both rolls!!

Didn't know he had to make the picnic lunches as well!

[IAmNick]

I'm very conflicted with Fam. I love him, he seems like a great guy and just the kind of person we want at our club. On the pitch I'm also a big fan and think he's done very well, and been very consistent since he joined playing all kinds of roles and with all kinds of formations and people around him.

However I also don't want us to hang on to players just because they're good if they don't fit the system - and I don't want us to start messing with a system (assuming we finally have one) to fit in individuals. I'm not so sure how Fam fits in with our other options up front, given that him and Wells doesn't seem to be as good together as we'd like.

In hindsight, I think Wells was a mistake. That's probably not a popular opinion but I'd rather have Fam +1 up front then Wells + 1 based on what I've seen so far, not to mention Fam is three years younger.

If the rumoured fees of €6m or so are true I think that's low - I know he only has a year left, but a consistent 12-15 goals every year in our goal shy team coupled with the defensive side isn't something to be sniffed at and very good value at that amount I think.

I'll be very sad when he leaves and think it'll be a mistake.

[Phileas Fogg]

12 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

I'm very conflicted with Fam. I love him, he seems like a great guy and just the kind of person we want at our club. On the pitch I'm also a big fan and think he's done very well, and been very consistent since he joined playing all kinds of roles and with all kinds of formations and people around him.

However I also don't want us to hang on to players just because they're good if they don't fit the system - and I don't want us to start messing with a system (assuming we finally have one) to fit in individuals. I'm not so sure how Fam fits in with our other options up front, given that him and Wells doesn't seem to be as good together as we'd like.

In hindsight, I think Wells was a mistake. That's probably not a popular opinion but I'd rather have Fam +1 up front then Wells + 1 based on what I've seen so far, not to mention Fam is three years younger.

If the rumoured fees of €6m or so are true I think that's low - I know he only has a year left, but a consistent 12-15 goals every year in our goal shy team coupled with the defensive side isn't something to be sniffed at and very good value at that amount I think.

I'll be very sad when he leaves and think it'll be a mistake.

I agree with everything you say apart from the point about Wells. If he stays fit, I'm confident that Wells has a good chance of being in the top 3 scorers in this division.

He's an instinctive natural goalscorer and ultimately will win us more matches than Diedhiou in my opinion.

[INCRED]

44 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I agree with everything you say apart from the point about Wells. If he stays fit, I'm confident that Wells has a good chance of being in the top 3 scorers in this division.

He's an instinctive natural goalscorer and ultimately will win us more matches than Diedhiou in my opinion.

Agree, Wells is a natural goal scorer and if we intend to play a more attacking style and create more chances then he will get his 20+ goals a season

Fam isn’t nowhere near as deadly in front of goal but is good for 10 -15 goals a season 

I would like to see both of them as our first choice frontmen and give them both time to gel under DHs approach but if I had a choice I would definitely keep Wells and a n other

[IAmNick]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I agree with everything you say apart from the point about Wells. If he stays fit, I'm confident that Wells has a good chance of being in the top 3 scorers in this division.

He's an instinctive natural goalscorer and ultimately will win us more matches than Diedhiou in my opinion.

 

59 minutes ago, INCRED said:

Agree, Wells is a natural goal scorer and if we intend to play a more attacking style and create more chances then he will get his 20+ goals a season

Fam isn’t nowhere near as deadly in front of goal but is good for 10 -15 goals a season 

Yeah fair comments. I thought twice when I wrote that.

On him being a natural goalscorer / instinctive it's a tough one, his record is reasonable but not great, perhaps obviously or he wouldn't be here! Last year was a great season for him and if he'd kept up his form (or we'd kept up the service?) here that he had at QPR he'd have hit 20 comfortably. He's been decent/good but not great before that though. 2015-16 he got 17 in 44 apps so getting to the 20 goal benchmark but that's kind of it. 7 in 40, 10 in 43, and 11 in 35 were his other recent Championship seasons - less than Fam.

Watching him in the last game he had two great chances he missed, which Fam would be getting stick for. Perhaps just rusty, I'm certainly not judging him or saying he's not good enough! I think he's a good player.

But given that, is he scoring the same / less goals than Fam, but also providing less elsewhere? Maybe that's too simplistic a view, you could argue he will contribute more to general attacking play.

I hope I'm wrong and he smashes it this year, especially if we can play to his strengths which unfortunately doesn't seem to be alongside Fam.

[Davefevs]

Here’s a chart showing goals per 90 versus xG per 90.  Above the line shows players who score more goals than the chance of scoring (no need for an xG debate here though).  Below the line, those that don’t.

I’ve split each player relative to their club, so you can see Nahki Wells in a City shirt and QPR.  Size of square equates to number of goals.  Also includes players on loan, so you can see how they performed too, e.g. Jonny Smith.

Interesting how Wells is not as productive with us as with QPR.

 

[mozo]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s a chart showing goals per 90 versus xG per 90.  Above the line shows players who score more goals than the chance of scoring (no need for an xG debate here though).  Below the line, those that don’t.

I’ve split each player relative to their club, so you can see Nahki Wells in a City shirt and QPR.  Size of square equates to number of goals.  Also includes players on loan, so you can see how they performed too, e.g. Jonny Smith.

Interesting how Wells is not as productive with us as with QPR.

 

Thanks for sharing Fevs. Sometimes the stats completely back up our intuitions!

[Mr Popodopolous]

Perhaps QPR set up in a way that suited him more than under LJ.

.Another factor to consider might be that he played with QPR (I think) in 2018/19 and then half a season in 2019/20- some good continuity, whereas with us- new club, new style (whatever that was under LJ)! His goals/game ratio shot up post June return IIRC. Improved anyway- have a feeling Holden's setup will be more to his liking than LJ's was.

That and the basic benefit of a proper continuity, pre-season etc.

[Davefevs]

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Perhaps QPR set up in a way that suited him more than under LJ.

.Another factor to consider might be that he played with QPR (I think) in 2018/19 and then half a season in 2019/20- some good continuity, whereas with us- new club, new style (whatever that was under LJ)! His goals/game ratio shot up post June return IIRC. Improved anyway- have a feeling Holden's setup will be more to his liking than LJ's was.

 

[IAmNick]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s a chart showing goals per 90 versus xG per 90.  Above the line shows players who score more goals than the chance of scoring (no need for an xG debate here though).  Below the line, those that don’t.

I’ve split each player relative to their club, so you can see Nahki Wells in a City shirt and QPR.  Size of square equates to number of goals.  Also includes players on loan, so you can see how they performed too, e.g. Jonny Smith.

Interesting how Wells is not as productive with us as with QPR.

 

Interesting. So the question that comes to me is: Was Wells over-performing relative to his history with QPR and has now regressed to his standard? Or have we not played to his strengths and are inhibiting him and should be trying to get him back to that standard?

If so was it more a case of QPR doing something right than us now doing something wrong? Or perhaps it was just a purple patch?

Do you have the data from his last few seasons we could plot? Then we can see if QPR last season, or us are the outlier. Being that far above your xG is probably not sustainable in my opinion.

My assumption from looking at his history is last year was a very good few months, but that's the exception rather than the norm and we shouldn't expect it to continue.

 

[LondonBristolian]

16 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

Interesting. So the question that comes to me is: Was Wells over-performing relative to his history with QPR and has now regressed to his standard? Or have we not played to his strengths and are inhibiting him and should be trying to get him back to that standard?

If so was it more a case of QPR doing something right than us now doing something wrong? Or perhaps it was just a purple patch?

Do you have the data from his last few seasons we could plot? Then we can see if QPR last season, or us are the outlier. Being that far above your xG is probably not sustainable in my opinion.

My assumption from looking at his history is last year was a very good few months, but that's the exception rather than the norm and we shouldn't expect it to continue.

 

I think over-performing is an interesting debate but that confidence also plays a role - i.e. players maybe score more than their expected goals when confident but less than when they are not, which feels logical instinctively. Over his career he has had a few "purple patches" so it is not a fluke but he barely played in 17 - 18, did alright in 18 - 19 and then excelled in the start of 19-20 when he was settled and team was built to his strength.

Which is to say that I don't "expect" Wells form to continue but I believe it could be possible to create situations where it might do so. Like you suggested in your previous post, I'm not 100% convinced Wells was the right striker to bring in for the way we wanted to play last season. But he was a reliable goalscorer who was available. Now we have him, I suppose it is how we use him at his best to make it work, especially if Fam does not stick around. 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, IAmNick said:

Interesting. So the question that comes to me is: Was Wells over-performing relative to his history with QPR and has now regressed to his standard? Or have we not played to his strengths and are inhibiting him and should be trying to get him back to that standard?

If so was it more a case of QPR doing something right than us now doing something wrong? Or perhaps it was just a purple patch?

Do you have the data from his last few seasons we could plot? Then we can see if QPR last season, or us are the outlier. Being that far above your xG is probably not sustainable in my opinion.

My assumption from looking at his history is last year was a very good few months, but that's the exception rather than the norm and we shouldn't expect it to continue.

 

I can only go back 5 seasons but he’s generally performing below his “norm” for us...but QPR was a purple patch.

[redordead1]

Hope I’m wrong and he scores a shed load for us this season, but I haven’t been overly impressed with his technique or decision making at times. If he’s not scoring, he brings little else to the team and as others have said above, he missed some pretty simple chances against Exeter through a combination of poor control and lack of composure.

Now hopefully he comes good and he shares a similar knack for scoring (however they go in) to his compatriot Shaun Goater, but I would choose Fam over Wells and rate him as a higher quality player as it stands. 

[ReggyRed]

1 hour ago, redordead1 said:

Hope I’m wrong and he scores a shed load for us this season, but I haven’t been overly impressed with his technique or decision making at times. If he’s not scoring, he brings little else to the team and as others have said above, he missed some pretty simple chances against Exeter through a combination of poor control and lack of composure.

Now hopefully he comes good and he shares a similar knack for scoring (however they go in) to his compatriot Shaun Goater, but I would choose Fam over Wells and rate him as a higher quality player as it stands. 

When he’s not scoring he brings little else? He does so much for the team

[Merrick's Marvels]

12 hours ago, IAmNick said:

I'm not so sure how Fam fits in with our other options up front, given that him and Wells doesn't seem to be as good together as we'd like.

In hindsight, I think Wells was a mistake. That's probably not a popular opinion but I'd rather have Fam +1 up front then Wells + 1 based on what I've seen so far, not to mention Fam is three years younger.

 

I've been thinking this myself - I see little evidence of a partnership between Fam and Wells at all.

Although his link up play can at times be poor, Wells is the striker who will score us 20 goals given the right service. So I'd play him as high up the pitch as possible, concentrate on being a fox in the box, and ask Martin to be the one who drops a bit deeper to link up the play - he's got the technique and intelligence, if not the stamina to do it for 46 games.

However, I'm not sure how those 2 fit Holden's desire for energetic pressing to win the ball back. Weimann has bundles of energy which is why I can see him playing plenty under Holden but I'm not convinced he's good enough if we're serious about promotion.    

[Red Skin]

I was quite supportive when Fam first arrived when others was less so, but just when most seem to have a big love in with him I've gone the other way.  I would ok about him going.  

He works hard, he can defend corners and is a lovely guy, but I just don't think he that good a striker.  I haven't seen enough improvement over the time he's been here to make me want him to stay.

I'd far rather see what Martin can do alongside Wells.  If we get a replacement for Fam, I'd rather see one come in that plays on the shoulder of the last defender and can run in behind and gave some belief he'd score. 

[JoeAman08]

I don’t get the goal scorer argument. He isn’t a prolific goal scorer but he is a good one at this level. 19 players scored more than him last season and 3 the same amount. Sounds like a lot but lets break it down. 
 

Out of those 22, 5 had worse goals per minutes ratios.
 

Another 7 are worth 15m quid or more.

Another 1 is already on the team. While another 1 was bought for 7-8m quid last summer(12 goals Puscas). 
 

So that leaves another 8.
 

Grabban and Bamford I would guess make a fair bit more than Fam. 
 

Then the last few are Woodrow, Matt Smith, Hugill, Steven Fletcher, Meite & Daniel Johnson(takes penalties for Preston). All of which are in the same range as Fam(12-14) goals wise. 
 

Point is, who on the list could Bristol City get that is a significant upgrade on Fam in terms of scoring? Maybe that is where Martin comes into play but he is 4 years older than Fam and I’d guess similar wages?

No qualms selling Fam if he doesn’t want to sign a new deal. Just not a fan of selling him because “he doesn’t score goals.” He is 1:3 in the league under Lee Johnson. Even if a bit freer means 3 more goals he is at 15 where anything more is hard to get for less than 10m and 25k a week. Extending Fam for 3 more years means from an FFP standpoint he could be cheaper than Joe Williams on a per season basis.