Diedhiou contract

[IAmNick]

17 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

I don’t get the goal scorer argument. He isn’t a prolific goal scorer but he is a good one at this level. 19 players scored more than him last season and 3 the same amount. Sounds like a lot but lets break it down. 
 

Out of those 22, 5 had worse goals per minutes ratios.
 

Another 7 are worth 15m quid or more.

Another 1 is already on the team. While another 1 was bought for 7-8m quid last summer(12 goals Puscas). 
 

So that leaves another 8.
 

Grabban and Bamford I would guess make a fair bit more than Fam. 
 

Then the last few are Woodrow, Matt Smith, Hugill, Steven Fletcher, Meite & Daniel Johnson(takes penalties for Preston). All of which are in the same range as Fam(12-14) goals wise. 
 

Point is, who on the list could Bristol City get that is a significant upgrade on Fam in terms of scoring? Maybe that is where Martin comes into play but he is 4 years older than Fam and I’d guess similar wages?

No qualms selling Fam if he doesn’t want to sign a new deal. Just not a fan of selling him because “he doesn’t score goals.” He is 1:3 in the league under Lee Johnson. Even if a bit freer means 3 more goals he is at 15 where anything more is hard to get for less than 10m and 25k a week. Extending Fam for 3 more years means from an FFP standpoint he could be cheaper than Joe Williams on a per season basis. 
 

Yeah I completely agree.

He's also been played with what could create about 5 teams worth of different partners, systems, and formations. Lone striker, in a 2, target man, wingers, wingbacks, a number 10 behind him, long balls and so on. Sometimes switching almost from week to week as we know. Despite all that he's kept a decent record up.

Certainly not perfect and can look a bit clumsy at times, but he's been remarkably consistent!

[Hartleysbeard]

This could be the season he benefits from not having to do all the work up front on his own. I hope he stays and bangs in 20+ league goals that fire us towards promotion. Looking at the league table today and Brentford aside, there’s nothing there that phases me as I think the relegated sides will struggle to adapt - It could be our best chance of promotion yet. Yours, annually overoptimistic fan! 

[Gillies Downs Leeds]

1 hour ago, Hartleysbeard said:

This could be the season he benefits from not having to do all the work up front on his own. I hope he stays and bangs in 20+ league goals that fire us towards promotion. Looking at the league table today and Brentford aside, there’s nothing there that phases me as I think the relegated sides will struggle to adapt - It could be our best chance of promotion yet. Yours, annually overoptimistic fan! 

Brentford could possibly lose another of their front 3 yet but no doubt they will have plans in place to replace him. Watford & Bournemouth I can see struggling to adapt however I think Norwich, even though they have lost a couple of players, have recruited well in my opinion. I think that they will go straight back up. Other than that I think the division looks as wide open as ever. 

[Kid in the Riot]

3 hours ago, JoeAman08 said:

I don’t get the goal scorer argument. He isn’t a prolific goal scorer but he is a good one at this level. 19 players scored more than him last season and 3 the same amount. Sounds like a lot but lets break it down. 
 

Out of those 22, 5 had worse goals per minutes ratios.
 

Another 7 are worth 15m quid or more.

Another 1 is already on the team. While another 1 was bought for 7-8m quid last summer(12 goals Puscas). 
 

So that leaves another 8.
 

Grabban and Bamford I would guess make a fair bit more than Fam. 
 

Then the last few are Woodrow, Matt Smith, Hugill, Steven Fletcher, Meite & Daniel Johnson(takes penalties for Preston). All of which are in the same range as Fam(12-14) goals wise. 
 

Point is, who on the list could Bristol City get that is a significant upgrade on Fam in terms of scoring? Maybe that is where Martin comes into play but he is 4 years older than Fam and I’d guess similar wages?

No qualms selling Fam if he doesn’t want to sign a new deal. Just not a fan of selling him because “he doesn’t score goals.” He is 1:3 in the league under Lee Johnson. Even if a bit freer means 3 more goals he is at 15 where anything more is hard to get for less than 10m and 25k a week. Extending Fam for 3 more years means from an FFP standpoint he could be cheaper than Joe Williams on a per season basis. 

And playing in a side last season that created next to nothing for him...

[Major Isewater]

15 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

And playing in a side last season that created next to nothing for him...

Turning it round , how many goals did he create for himself ? And how many assists did he have ? 
 

I am a fan of Famaral, he reminds me of ‘ The Chief ‘ big Wayne Allison who was always there or thereabouts but never quite broke through as a goal machine . 
 

An awkward looking player and hard to play against. 
 

I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him and hope he re-signs .

[LondonBristolian]

1 hour ago, Gillies Downs Leeds said:

Brentford could possibly lose another of their front 3 yet but no doubt they will have plans in place to replace him. Watford & Bournemouth I can see struggling to adapt however I think Norwich, even though they have lost a couple of players, have recruited well in my opinion. I think that they will go straight back up. Other than that I think the division looks as wide open as ever. 

I just think it's hard to predict how anyone will do. There are about 14 teams where I feel could make a convincing case for why they are sure to end up in the play-offs, and I convincing case as to why they will not. And I'd not rule 5 of the other 10 either...

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I just think it's hard to predict how anyone will do. There are about 14 teams where I feel could make a convincing case for why they are sure to end up in the play-offs, and I convincing case as to why they will not. And I'd not rule 5 of the other 10 either...

I think the league has a few tiers:

• a top 3/4
• 4/5 down to 13/14
• 14 to 18
• 19 to 24

i see us in the 2nd bullet...here’s my 1-24

 

[LondonBristolian]

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think the league has a few tiers:

• a top 3/4
• 4/5 down to 13/14
• 14 to 18
• 19 to 24

i see us in the 2nd bullet...here’s my 1-24

 

I think that is a very fair summary but I think teams nonetheless surprise.

All the teams you mention will expect to be there and challenging but I can also see Norwich's signings not gelling, Bournemouth's new manager not having the skills, Brentford having lost some spark after last season's disappointment, Cardiff reverting to early season form, Watford being pure chaos and Millwall lacking in quality and depth with the level of rotation.

Similarly I think Derby, Boro and QPR are all probably pitched about right but all of them could surprise.

I think the bottom three plus Reading and Rotherham are the only five where I'd be genuinely shocked if they mounted a promotion challenge. 

[Jerseybean]

55 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think the league has a few tiers:

• a top 3/4
• 4/5 down to 13/14
• 14 to 18
• 19 to 24

i see us in the 2nd bullet...here’s my 1-24

 

Here’s my end of season table prediction: 

1. Watford
2. Brentford
3. Norwich
4. Forest
5. Swansea
6. Stoke
7. Cardiff
8. PNE
9. Derby
10. Bournemouth
11. Boro
12. Bristol City
13. Millwall
14. Huddersfield
15. Blackburn
16. QPR
17. Wycombe
18. Coventry
19. Birmingham
20. Barnsley
21. Luton
22. Reading
23. Sheffield Weds
24. Rotherham

[Davefevs]

12 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I think that is a very fair summary but I think teams nonetheless surprise.

All the teams you mention will expect to be there and challenging but I can also see Norwich's signings not gelling, Bournemouth's new manager not having the skills, Brentford having lost some spark after last season's disappointment, Cardiff reverting to early season form, Watford being pure chaos and Millwall lacking in quality and depth with the level of rotation.

Similarly I think Derby, Boro and QPR are all probably pitched about right but all of them could surprise.

I think the bottom three plus Reading and Rotherham are the only five where I'd be genuinely shocked if they mounted a promotion challenge. 

So City as Champions then!

[Sturny]

7 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Here’s my end of season table prediction: 

1. Watford
2. Brentford
3. Norwich
4. Forest
5. Swansea
6. Stoke
7. Cardiff
8. PNE
9. Derby
10. Bournemouth
11. Boro
12. Bristol City
13. Millwall
14. Huddersfield
15. Blackburn
16. QPR
17. Wycombe
18. Coventry
19. Birmingham
20. Barnsley
21. Luton
22. Reading
23. Sheffield Weds
24. Rotherham

I reckon Bournemouth would fall even further than that, they've sold nearly everyone decent and have been poor at replacing for a while. 

[RedEyez]

Actually think Bournemouth will struggle this season.

[IAmNick]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

I think the league has a few tiers:

• a top 3/4
• 4/5 down to 13/14
• 14 to 18
• 19 to 24

i see us in the 2nd bullet...here’s my 1-24

 

Perhaps this is for another thread, but I'm consistently amazed people have us down for a better season than any of the ones we managed under Lee, and in fact our second best in what, 30 years+?

Call me Mr Pessimistic but I can't see any reason currently to back that up... apart from the standard pre-season optimism perhaps!

[Bat Fastard]

Just now, IAmNick said:

Perhaps this is for another thread, but I'm consistently amazed people have us down for a better season than any of the ones we managed under Lee, and in fact our second best in what, 30 years+?

Call me Mr Pessimistic but I can't see any reason currently to back that up... apart from the standard pre-season optimism perhaps!

Mr Pessimistic, you may consider that other teams will have been affected by limitations in recruiting and spending by Covid. We may not be as bad as you think. Dean seems to be winning over many of the doubters as well. Maybe you could allow yourself a chink of optimism?

[Sturny]

1 minute ago, JonDolman said:

I think we have quality in all areas of the pitch and don't see why we can't be making the playoffs.

Can't really see a weakness. Get the tactics right and this team could be right up there imo.

I'd still say defensive midfield. The amount of times I saw teams slice through our midfield like butter over the past couple of season! I hope this was down to just LJ tactics and DH has addressed this. Apart from that I agree 

[IAmNick]

3 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I think we have quality in all areas of the pitch and don't see why we can't be making the playoffs.

Can't really see a weakness. Get the tactics right and this team could be right up there imo.

I agree the team looks good on the whole. Surely there is one very obvious potential weakness though, in perhaps the most important position of all? That's been done to death though of course so there's no point getting in to it here.

8 minutes ago, Bat Fastard said:

Mr Pessimistic, you may consider that other teams will have been affected by limitations in recruiting and spending by Covid. We may not be as bad as you think. Dean seems to be winning over many of the doubters as well. Maybe you could allow yourself a chink of optimism?

I think our recruitment has been pretty good so far. But it will take more than a nice radio interview to improve my predictions - winning league games will win over this doubter!

I've been optimistic before far too many seasons before and am usually wrong. Hopefully I am this time too!

The fact the positive predictions are also on a thread about losing our best striker from the last few years is unusual as well.

[Bat Fastard]

1 minute ago, IAmNick said:

I agree the team looks good on the whole. Surely there is one very obvious potential weakness though, in perhaps the most important position of all? That's been done to death though of course so there's no point getting in to it here.

I think our recruitment has been pretty good so far. But it will take more than a nice radio interview to improve my predictions - winning league games will win over this doubter!

I've been optimistic before far too many seasons before and am usually wrong. Hopefully I am this time too!

The fact the positive predictions are also on a thread about losing our best striker from the last few years is unusual as well.

The gulf between teams with and without parachute payments could be bigger than ever this year - but that aside, I believe we may have a good season.  Having to trade FD would be a blow, but that would depend on the person recruited in his stead. Most likely this would be a loan from the Premier League.

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

I agree the team looks good on the whole. Surely there is one very obvious potential weakness though, in perhaps the most important position of all? That's been done to death though of course so there's no point getting in to it here.

I think our recruitment has been pretty good so far. But it will take more than a nice radio interview to improve my predictions - winning league games will win over this doubter!

I've been optimistic before far too many seasons before and am usually wrong. Hopefully I am this time too!

The fact the positive predictions are also on a thread about losing our best striker from the last few years is unusual as well.

My Holden-ball piece is gonna be on Bristol City Live (BP) early next week.

You can read why I’m optimistic. You may not agree, that’s cool.

When you see the likes of Derby losing players, not just Martin, but Bogle and Lowe etc, then you realise even with MMA (Mel’s Magic Accounting) that some clubs have not recruited anywhere near as strongly as we have. 

[IAmNick]

11 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Head coach?

Well he could be anything. So far he's impressed me. But with a better squad than he had in those final games I'd like to think he can really make that system work.

A key thing for me is Mawson and Kalas staying fit. And if Joe Williams can get back and stay fit too then we could have a much more solid look. But certainly not lacking attacking quality too.

 

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

My Holden-ball piece is gonna be on Bristol City Live (BP) early next week.

You can read why I’m optimistic. You may not agree, that’s cool.

When you see the likes of Derby losing players, not just Martin, but Bogle and Lowe etc, then you realise even with MMA (Mel’s Magic Accounting) that some clubs have not recruited anywhere near as strongly as we have. 

Yep both fair points on the solidity of our squad now, and our recruitment compared to others.

From what Holden has said, I've been impressed as well. But I was impressed with what Millen and Tinnion said too so I'm remaining cautious. Words come cheap, and after the last few years I think we perhaps are too enthusiastic due to the difference we now have. Recruitment has certainly been more cohesive in general though.

I guess with the unknown comes a range - perhaps I'm being overly negative and looking at the bottom of the range, and you're both looking nearer the top. I'd like to think I'm being cautious rather than negative though, but who knows. As you said Jon, he could be anything - that's why it's interesting to read all these different opinions! Then we can look back in a year and tear into each other  

I had a read of your Bees Analytica article Dave and enjoyed it so will take a peek at the BP one as well - if it's different?

[Davefevs]

22 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

 

Yep both fair points on the solidity of our squad now, and our recruitment compared to others.

From what Holden has said, I've been impressed as well. But I was impressed with what Millen and Tinnion said too so I'm remaining cautious. Words come cheap, and after the last few years I think we perhaps are too enthusiastic due to the difference we now have. Recruitment has certainly been more cohesive in general though.

I guess with the unknown comes a range - perhaps I'm being overly negative and looking at the bottom of the range, and you're both looking nearer the top. I'd like to think I'm being cautious rather than negative though, but who knows. As you said Jon, he could be anything - that's why it's interesting to read all these different opinions! Then we can look back in a year and tear into each other  

I had a read of your Bees Analytica article Dave and enjoyed it so will take a peek at the BP one as well - if it's different?

Thanks...Only a slight update to cover Exeter and last week’s 4 signings.

[MC RISK77]

3 hours ago, RedEyez said:

Actually think Bournemouth will struggle this season.

Yep and me....Watford favourites for me and I think Swansea will join them in top 2....I also think Brentford will struggle

[INCRED]

3 hours ago, IAmNick said:

Perhaps this is for another thread, but I'm consistently amazed people have us down for a better season than any of the ones we managed under Lee, and in fact our second best in what, 30 years+?

Call me Mr Pessimistic but I can't see any reason currently to back that up... apart from the standard pre-season optimism perhaps!

So you don’t think the shortcomings that were clearly apparent last season have been addressed?

I do and provided they gel with the rest of the squad then there is no need not to be optimistic as quality and experience has clearly been added very much along the lines of our promotion season from L1

i would prefer to be in our current situation than most of the others in the Championship 

[IAmNick]

34 minutes ago, INCRED said:

So you don’t think the shortcomings that were clearly apparent last season have been addressed?

I do and provided they gel with the rest of the squad then there is no need not to be optimistic as quality and experience has clearly been added very much along the lines of our promotion season from L1

i would prefer to be in our current situation than most of the others in the Championship 

There were two shortcomings last year I think most of us would agree that needed addressing.

Shortcomings in the squad? Yes. It looks much better and the club deserve credit there - I'm feeling good about that for sure.

In the management? We have someone who's managed about 20 games in their career. 3/4 of them were 5 years ago in a lower division with a 20% win rate. None of us know yet whether that shortcoming has been addressed. Considering how notoriously difficult the division is I'm erring on the side of caution.

[Jerseybean]

7 hours ago, Jerseybean said:

Here’s my end of season table prediction: 

1. Watford
2. Brentford
3. Norwich
4. Forest
5. Swansea
6. Stoke
7. Cardiff
8. PNE
9. Derby
10. Bournemouth
11. Boro
12. Bristol City
13. Millwall
14. Huddersfield
15. Blackburn
16. QPR
17. Wycombe
18. Coventry
19. Birmingham
20. Barnsley
21. Luton
22. Reading
23. Sheffield Weds
24. Rotherham

So here’s how the data modelling approach has the final table:

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/how-bristol-city-tipped-season-4509481

 

 

 

 

[Davefevs]

Low points top to bottom, suggesting a lot of draws.

[Port Said Red]

Interesting last two pages, if the discussion was on the main page........ Any news on Famara? 

[GrahamC]

Just now, Port Said Red said:

Interesting last two pages, if the discussion was on the main page........ Any news on Famara? 

None at all, I still have a hunch he will go (but I’m often wrong) & the nearer we get to the deadline without his new contract signed the more likely we will look to make that happen.

[Port Said Red]

3 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

None at all, I still have a hunch he will go (but I’m often wrong) & the nearer we get to the deadline without his new contract signed the more likely we will look to make that happen.

I think his agents will be keen to get him into free agent status unless there is money to be made from any deal we can negotiate. 

[GrahamC]

14 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I think his agents will be keen to get him into free agent status unless there is money to be made from any deal we can negotiate. 

Undoubtedly & that is where Ashton comes in to make sure that is not the case & we get at least some return on our investment.

Whilst we are speculating those involved will have a fairly good idea which way this is heading & will plan accordingly.

[brad blit]

Muriqi to Lazio deal done (fenerbache striker - 20mil), Fammy was widely rumoured to be no1 choice replacement if he left. See what happens next week