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Could history repeat itself?


old_eastender

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Some 15 and a bit years ago, an internal manager appointment at Bristol City came to a sorry end with a 7-1 capitulation against Swansea. Brian Tinnion's ill-fated reign was over.

Given the series of dreadful performances Holden has given us in the last 5 matches against lower half teams, a massive defeat against Brentford could well be on the cards. Then, surely the hapless Holden would have to go.

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5 minutes ago, ReggyRed said:

Can see history repeating itself, a Johnson keeping us in the top half of the championship, fans hound him out because of entitlement and they think he’s holding us back when in fact he’s doing a good job. Atleast we will have a league one campaign to look forward to.

I remember saying at the time that history would be kind to GJ's reign at City, and so it has proven, as 12 years on we haven't got close to his 4th place finish in the C'ship. 

History may well be pretty kind to LJ too. People will always bang on about how much money he spent, but look at the net spend and it shows a different picture. Which other manager at City in recent memory has improved our league position year on year over a 4 year period? And how many will in the future?

I warned the LJ out brigade to be careful what they wished for, as there was always a danger SL would appoint a substandard replacement and so it has proved. 

I'm not claiming to be any sort of nostradamus, by the way, all of this has been very predictable.  

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Just when will the penny drop and folk see that its not Holden or even LJ`s fault its the person who gave them the job. They didnt bring themselves here, it was given many weeks thought by The Boss before the the "best selection" was made to take us forward; just a matter of time before the process is repeated.

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5 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I remember saying at the time that history would be kind to GJ's reign at City, and so it has proven, as 12 years on we haven't got close to his 4th place finish in the C'ship. 

History may well be pretty kind to LJ too. People will always bang on about how much money he spent, but look at the net spend and it shows a different picture. Which other manager at City in recent memory has improved our league position year on year over a 4 year period? And how many will in the future?

I warned the LJ out brigade to be careful what they wished for, as there was always a danger SL would appoint a substandard replacement and so it has proved. 

I'm not claiming to be any sort of nostradamus, by the way, all of this has been very predictable.  

Let’s not pretend that things were good under LJ or that they’d been any different now if he were still here. 

We can agree however on how much it beggars belief that a man as successful as SL can be so consistently poor at appointing managers. 

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34 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

Some 15 and a bit years ago, an internal manager appointment at Bristol City came to a sorry end with a 7-1 capitulation against Swansea. Brian Tinnion's ill-fated reign was over.

Given the series of dreadful performances Holden has given us in the last 5 matches against lower half teams, a massive defeat against Brentford could well be on the cards. Then, surely the hapless Holden would have to go.

Unlikely to be a massive defeat. But do you measure “progress” as going to Brentford and “achieving” 30% possession of the football? If it’s significantly higher than that I will be amazed.

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24 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I remember saying at the time that history would be kind to GJ's reign at City, and so it has proven, as 12 years on we haven't got close to his 4th place finish in the C'ship. 

History may well be pretty kind to LJ too. People will always bang on about how much money he spent, but look at the net spend and it shows a different picture. Which other manager at City in recent memory has improved our league position year on year over a 4 year period? And how many will in the future?

I warned the LJ out brigade to be careful what they wished for, as there was always a danger SL would appoint a substandard replacement and so it has proved. 

I'm not claiming to be any sort of nostradamus, by the way, all of this has been very predictable.  

I'll remember the cup run for sure but my abiding memory of LJ's reign is some of the most dreadful, tedious and un-imaginative football in my 50 years of following the club and I'm afraid that if anything  it has become worse under DH

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1 hour ago, ReggyRed said:

Can see history repeating itself, a Johnson keeping us in the top half of the championship, fans hound him out because of entitlement and they think he’s holding us back when in fact he’s doing a good job. Atleast we will have a league one campaign to look forward to.

Well said Sir, we were doing ok under LJ and GJ, screwed or up both times thinking we could do better 

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1 hour ago, Fordy62 said:

Let’s not pretend that things were good under LJ or that they’d been any different now if he were still here

We can agree however on how much it beggars belief that a man as successful as SL can be so consistently poor at appointing managers. 

That’s not his point, to be fair. The point is about how SL has a track record for appointing substandard coaches/managers and how those bad decisions rewrite history. 

Not many people can deny LJ had to go and I wouldn’t want him back, but too many people have blind faith in SL to get someone better. The reality is we have 20 years of evidence to see the backward decisions he’s made and continues to make. The only time we’ve achieved anything under SL is when Cotterill was appointed and SL took a backseat. 

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15 minutes ago, tin said:

That’s not his point, to be fair. The point is about how SL has a track record for appointing substandard coaches/managers and how those bad decisions rewrite history. 

Not many people can deny LJ had to go and I wouldn’t want him back, but too many people have blind faith in SL to get someone better. The reality is we have 20 years of evidence to see the backward decisions he’s made and continues to make. The only time we’ve achieved anything under SL is when Cotterill was appointed and SL took a backseat. 

Spot on, a proven manager will cost big bucks and would want a spend war chest, he would also want to do things his way not the Ashton or SL way. So we will not see one of these rare commodities here anytime soon.

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23 minutes ago, tin said:

That’s not his point, to be fair. The point is about how SL has a track record for appointing substandard coaches/managers and how those bad decisions rewrite history. 

Not many people can deny LJ had to go and I wouldn’t want him back, but too many people have blind faith in SL to get someone better. The reality is we have 20 years of evidence to see the backward decisions he’s made and continues to make. The only time we’ve achieved anything under SL is when Cotterill was appointed and SL took a backseat. 

Out of likes here but wanted to say good post, completely agree! 

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2 hours ago, old_eastender said:

Some 15 and a bit years ago, an internal manager appointment at Bristol City came to a sorry end with a 7-1 capitulation against Swansea. Brian Tinnion's ill-fated reign was over.

Given the series of dreadful performances Holden has given us in the last 5 matches against lower half teams, a massive defeat against Brentford could well be on the cards. Then, surely the hapless Holden would have to go.

Here we go again!

Do me a favour please.

Look at all players registered to play for the team. Then pick what you think is the best 11. Then see how many of those players are currently available.

Then have a word with yourself!!

 

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1 hour ago, tin said:

That’s not his point, to be fair. The point is about how SL has a track record for appointing substandard coaches/managers and how those bad decisions rewrite history. 

Not many people can deny LJ had to go and I wouldn’t want him back, but too many people have blind faith in SL to get someone better. The reality is we have 20 years of evidence to see the backward decisions he’s made and continues to make. The only time we’ve achieved anything under SL is when Cotterill was appointed and SL took a backseat. 

I think my second paragraph suggests I didn’t miss the point. ?? 

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2 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I remember saying at the time that history would be kind to GJ's reign at City, and so it has proven, as 12 years on we haven't got close to his 4th place finish in the C'ship. 

History may well be pretty kind to LJ too. People will always bang on about how much money he spent, but look at the net spend and it shows a different picture. Which other manager at City in recent memory has improved our league position year on year over a 4 year period? And how many will in the future?

I warned the LJ out brigade to be careful what they wished for, as there was always a danger SL would appoint a substandard replacement and so it has proved. 

I'm not claiming to be any sort of nostradamus, by the way, all of this has been very predictable.  

Despite one maniac on here, it is unarguable that GJ’s time was the high point of Steve Lansdown’s time as chairman.

We finished in our highest league position since 1980 & were a competitive side in all 4 of his seasons in the league.

Like with everyone it went sour in the end, but worth reflecting that GJ was appointed after huge success down the A37, a template that we have rarely followed since.

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Not stirring, but just trying to work out what a ‘success rate’ is in terms of managerial appointments. Of the last (I think) 8 managers SL has appointed, 2 got us promoted. How does a 25% promotion success rate compare to other clubs? Or taking the whole sample, possibly 2 out of 12(?) Anybody got figures?

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4 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I remember saying at the time that history would be kind to GJ's reign at City, and so it has proven, as 12 years on we haven't got close to his 4th place finish in the C'ship. 

History may well be pretty kind to LJ too. People will always bang on about how much money he spent, but look at the net spend and it shows a different picture. Which other manager at City in recent memory has improved our league position year on year over a 4 year period? And how many will in the future?

I warned the LJ out brigade to be careful what they wished for, as there was always a danger SL would appoint a substandard replacement and so it has proved. 

I'm not claiming to be any sort of nostradamus, by the way, all of this has been very predictable.  

GJ also helped us on our way to our slide back to League 1 in 2013 by signing a lot of average players on long term contracts mind, we couldn't shift a lot of players off our books. 

After the play off final, the football wasn't much better than what we have seen recently.

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5 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I remember saying at the time that history would be kind to GJ's reign at City, and so it has proven, as 12 years on we haven't got close to his 4th place finish in the C'ship. 

History may well be pretty kind to LJ too. People will always bang on about how much money he spent, but look at the net spend and it shows a different picture. Which other manager at City in recent memory has improved our league position year on year over a 4 year period? And how many will in the future?

I warned the LJ out brigade to be careful what they wished for, as there was always a danger SL would appoint a substandard replacement and so it has proved. 

I'm not claiming to be any sort of nostradamus, by the way, all of this has been very predictable.  

Whist I agree regards GJ and I still have fond memories of some of LJ's time, I think we have to honest and say that they both lost their way in their last 12 months. 

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5 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I remember saying at the time that history would be kind to GJ's reign at City, and so it has proven, as 12 years on we haven't got close to his 4th place finish in the C'ship. 

History may well be pretty kind to LJ too. People will always bang on about how much money he spent, but look at the net spend and it shows a different picture. Which other manager at City in recent memory has improved our league position year on year over a 4 year period? And how many will in the future?

I warned the LJ out brigade to be careful what they wished for, as there was always a danger SL would appoint a substandard replacement and so it has proved. 

I'm not claiming to be any sort of nostradamus, by the way, all of this has been very predictable.  

To be honest, you didn't need to be nostradamus to see Holden was one hell of a gamble that was unlikely to pay off.

Not sure many would dare whisper it....but it looks right now like LJ had the team performing (largely) better than the sum of it's parts and the progress over his tenure was perhaps under-valued.

I won't argue whether LJ should or shouldn't have gone - but looking back at the timing now of this sacking, and given COVID and FFP meant we were unlikely to give any new manager a serious transfer kitty - you've got to wonder if we were better off sticking with him for another season rather than passing the reigns down the ladder - IF they weren't going to, or were not 'capable' of appointing externally. 

The whole thing is a mess TBH and I still think we're on course (my nostradamus moment) to be set back by 2 years at least in appointing Holden. That's only 2 if the club actually act and make the right appointment next time.....

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5 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

Let’s not pretend that things were good under LJ or that they’d been any different now if he were still here. 

We can agree however on how much it beggars belief that a man as successful as SL can be so consistently poor at appointing managers. 

Yes... it’s almost as though SL doesn’t want success... in which case he’s been very successful. 
What would happen if we were ever promoted? The levels of investment SL would need to make would be off the scale. We may become attractive to outside investors... he could be forced to sell. Perhaps neither option appeals to SL. Keeping the family business standing still might be the plan. 

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12 minutes ago, Mendip City said:

Yes... it’s almost as though SL doesn’t want success... in which case he’s been very successful. 
What would happen if we were ever promoted? The levels of investment SL would need to make would be off the scale. We may become attractive to outside investors... he could be forced to sell. Perhaps neither option appeals to SL. Keeping the family business standing still might be the plan. 

I don't think for a second he is afraid of, or doesn't want success.

He just won't achieve it by signing a blank cheque.

His current plan, admirable as it is, looks increasingly reliant on all the stars aligning perfectly. 

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4 hours ago, tin said:

That’s not his point, to be fair. The point is about how SL has a track record for appointing substandard coaches/managers and how those bad decisions rewrite history. 

Not many people can deny LJ had to go and I wouldn’t want him back, but too many people have blind faith in SL to get someone better. The reality is we have 20 years of evidence to see the backward decisions he’s made and continues to make. The only time we’ve achieved anything under SL is when Cotterill was appointed and SL took a backseat. 

Yes and by all accounts it was another board member who recommended and brought in Cotterill. The managerial appointments at the club have been shambolic but so has the management of the club. It only looked like it was heading in the right direction under GJ and Cotterill. It perhaps went too far GJ's way. Cotterill wins the double and was plainly sold out behind the scenes.  

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15 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

I don't think for a second he is afraid of, or doesn't want success.

He just won't achieve it by signing a blank cheque.

His current plan, admirable as it is, looks increasingly reliant on all the stars aligning perfectly. 

That’s true... the plan is impossible. The plan wants to have our cake and eat it - produce players to get us to the premier league and also “trade” those players for a profit to balance the books. 
A quick scan of the premier league shows we achieved part of that - producing premier league players (Ayling, Reid, Webster, Bryan, brownhill) and turning a profit.  
How on earth do we square the circle and make it to the prem? It’s going to need far more investment- that might mean paying high wages to those players to keep them and get the job done. We could probably carry a smaller squad with greater quality and proper utilisation if the academy (fewer outbound loans). 
The model now seems to have switched to buying championship players for the championship - Martin, Wells being good examples. 
Aside from Bentley I’m struggling to see who the next big thing (next big sale) will be...
The squad is now full of solid Championship (but no higher) players: Kalas, Baker, Hunt, Paterson, Weimann, O’Dowda and a handful of unproven (and not proving themselves) younger players. 

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The thing with Holden is, whether we trust him or not, we all know he hasn't had a normal season, 1. Due to crazy injuries, 2. Due to Covid. 

We can't possibly blame him for our plight, even if we have some strong reservations about his tactics, line ups, Diedhiou and interviews!

Because the response will point to injuries and setbacks out of his control.

So we're stuck. It's looking like a disappointing season all round and yet we can't even make strong judgements about it, which will be really frustrating. 

Come what may (relegation aside), Holden would have legitimate grounds for a second season. In which case, we can't truly assess him until late Autumn at the earliest. 

Lansdown won't support upheaval unless he really has to, so I think we need to lower our expectations, restrain our frustrations and buckle down for a difficult 2021.

Happy New Year! 

?

 

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1 minute ago, mozo said:

The thing with Holden is, whether we trust him or not, we all know he hasn't had a normal season, 1. Due to crazy injuries, 2. Due to Covid. 

We can't possibly blame him for our plight, even if we have some strong reservations about his tactics, line ups, Diedhiou and interviews!

Because the response will point to injuries and setbacks out of his control.

So we're stuck. It's looking like a disappointing season all round and yet we can't even make strong judgements about it, which will be really frustrating. 

Come what may (relegation aside), Holden would have legitimate grounds for a second season. In which case, we can't truly assess him until late Autumn at the earliest. 

Lansdown won't support upheaval unless he really has to, so I think we need to lower our expectations, restrain our frustrations and buckle down for a difficult 2021.

Happy New Year! 

?

 

I think, unless we go on a horrific run and we start flirting with the relegation zone (unlikely mathematically) you’ve hit the nail on the head there.

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6 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I remember saying at the time that history would be kind to GJ's reign at City, and so it has proven, as 12 years on we haven't got close to his 4th place finish in the C'ship. 

History may well be pretty kind to LJ too. People will always bang on about how much money he spent, but look at the net spend and it shows a different picture. Which other manager at City in recent memory has improved our league position year on year over a 4 year period? And how many will in the future?

I warned the LJ out brigade to be careful what they wished for, as there was always a danger SL would appoint a substandard replacement and so it has proved. 

I'm not claiming to be any sort of nostradamus, by the way, all of this has been very predictable.  

Worth reminding ourselves that we were 7th with 35 points and a +2 GD under LJ after 22 games last season (compared to 10th, 33 points, -1 GD now) and stinking the place out, and going backwards steadily. So not a significant difference. And injuries this season are notably worse than even this time last season.

We were 12th when LJ was sacked. Miles off target. His average across his four years here was indeed 12th, nowhere near good enough when 6th is the minimum expectation. The crowd was also bored as **** by the end; even SL must've been hankering for some shots on goal and goalmouth action. And aware of the actual, physical "bums on seats" numbers in attendance (on the slide, very likely) and pies and pints shifted. He being a numbers man, and all that.

I think it's also worth remembering that the "LJ out brigade" had no influence on the decision, or the decision-maker (as many will tell you, on here). There was no crowd at games when LJ was fired, and no immediate prospect of any crowd returning any time soon, not even a bedsheet hung from a dual-carriageway pedestrian bridge, and so no pressure, no heat, at least in the traditional form by barracking the manager and/or board in person at games, on SL to "act." SL takes no notice whatsoever of any of the "noise" from places like this forum, we are told over and over.

So you might want to aim your warnings in future where they might more usefully be employed. 

Another point worth making is that we had three seasons of league e-i-e-i-e-i-o-ing up the football league under LJ, not four. Helped in no small part by the meagre "improvement" of 2016/17 on the amateurism that was 2015/16 (one place, and two points).

What we might be doing now had LJ still been here, and Deano still only "putting out the cones" and saying "yes, boss," we can only guess. You appear to be suggesting that we might be doing a little better whereas we were already stagnating and then regressing under Johnson. Presumably why SL took the surprising action he did?

 

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2 minutes ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

Worth reminding ourselves that we were 7th with 35 points and a +2 GD under LJ after 22 games last season (compared to 10th, 33 points, -1 GD now) and stinking the place out, and going backwards steadily. So not a significant difference. And injuries this season are notably worse than even this time last season.

We were 12th when LJ was sacked. Miles off target. His average across his four years here was indeed 12th, nowhere near good enough when 6th is the minimum expectation. The crowd was also bored as **** by the end; even SL must've been hankering for some shots on goal and goalmouth action. And aware of the actual, physical "bums on seats" numbers in attendance (on the slide, very likely) and pies and pints shifted. He being a numbers man, and all that.

I think it's also worth remembering that the "LJ out brigade" had no influence on the decision, or the decision-maker (as many will tell you, on here). There was no crowd at games when LJ was fired, and no immediate prospect of any crowd returning any time soon, not even a bedsheet hung from a dual-carriageway pedestrian bridge, and so no pressure, no heat, at least in the traditional form by barracking the manager and/or board in person at games, on SL to "act." SL takes no notice whatsoever of any of the "noise" from places like this forum, we are told over and over.

So you might want to aim your warnings in future where they might more usefully be employed. 

Another point worth making is that we had three seasons of league e-i-e-i-e-i-o-ing up the football league under LJ, not four. Helped in no small part by the meagre "improvement" of 2016/17 on the amateurism that was 2015/16 (one place, and two points).

What we might be doing now had LJ still been here, and Deano still only "putting out the cones" and saying "yes, boss," we can only guess. You appear to be suggesting that we might be doing a little better whereas we were already stagnating and then regressing under Johnson. Presumably why SL took the surprising action he did?

 

Fine, fine post 

(And superbly written and presented)

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6 minutes ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

Worth reminding ourselves that we were 7th with 35 points and a +2 GD under LJ after 22 games last season (compared to 10th, 33 points, -1 GD now) and stinking the place out, and going backwards steadily. So not a significant difference. And injuries this season are notably worse than even this time last season.

We were 12th when LJ was sacked. Miles off target. His average across his four years here was indeed 12th, nowhere near good enough when 6th is the minimum expectation. The crowd was also bored as **** by the end; even SL must've been hankering for some shots on goal and goalmouth action. And aware of the actual, physical "bums on seats" numbers in attendance (on the slide, very likely) and pies and pints shifted. He being a numbers man, and all that.

I think it's also worth remembering that the "LJ out brigade" had no influence on the decision, or the decision-maker (as many will tell you, on here). There was no crowd at games when LJ was fired, and no immediate prospect of any crowd returning any time soon, not even a bedsheet hung from a dual-carriageway pedestrian bridge, and so no pressure, no heat, at least in the traditional form by barracking the manager and/or board in person at games, on SL to "act." SL takes no notice whatsoever of any of the "noise" from places like this forum, we are told over and over.

So you might want to aim your warnings in future where they might more usefully be employed. 

Another point worth making is that we had three seasons of league e-i-e-i-e-i-o-ing up the football league under LJ, not four. Helped in no small part by the meagre "improvement" of 2016/17 on the amateurism that was 2015/16 (one place, and two points).

What we might be doing now had LJ still been here, and Deano still only "putting out the cones" and saying "yes, boss," we can only guess. You appear to be suggesting that we might be doing a little better whereas we were already stagnating and then regressing under Johnson. Presumably why SL took the surprising action he did?

 

All fair comments and a good post.

It is worth saying though we weren’t without injury issues last season (fine, not as bad, but not a full squad) - LJ lost Afobe to long term injury, had Kalas and Dasilva in and out the team with injuries and Korey Smith missing until Jan IIRC. 
 

In terms of comparing points and positions, probably best done at the end of the season. At the moment, we look on current form, like we will need to go some to beat last season’s “miles off target” finish. 

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1 hour ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

Worth reminding ourselves that we were 7th with 35 points and a +2 GD under LJ after 22 games last season (compared to 10th, 33 points, -1 GD now) and stinking the place out, and going backwards steadily. So not a significant difference. And injuries this season are notably worse than even this time last season.

We were 12th when LJ was sacked. Miles off target. His average across his four years here was indeed 12th, nowhere near good enough when 6th is the minimum expectation. The crowd was also bored as **** by the end; even SL must've been hankering for some shots on goal and goalmouth action. And aware of the actual, physical "bums on seats" numbers in attendance (on the slide, very likely) and pies and pints shifted. He being a numbers man, and all that.

I think it's also worth remembering that the "LJ out brigade" had no influence on the decision, or the decision-maker (as many will tell you, on here). There was no crowd at games when LJ was fired, and no immediate prospect of any crowd returning any time soon, not even a bedsheet hung from a dual-carriageway pedestrian bridge, and so no pressure, no heat, at least in the traditional form by barracking the manager and/or board in person at games, on SL to "act." SL takes no notice whatsoever of any of the "noise" from places like this forum, we are told over and over.

So you might want to aim your warnings in future where they might more usefully be employed. 

Another point worth making is that we had three seasons of league e-i-e-i-e-i-o-ing up the football league under LJ, not four. Helped in no small part by the meagre "improvement" of 2016/17 on the amateurism that was 2015/16 (one place, and two points).

What we might be doing now had LJ still been here, and Deano still only "putting out the cones" and saying "yes, boss," we can only guess. You appear to be suggesting that we might be doing a little better whereas we were already stagnating and then regressing under Johnson. Presumably why SL took the surprising action he did?

 

Your penultimate sentence of a fine post sums up my view.

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2 hours ago, Alessandro said:

All fair comments and a good post.

It is worth saying though we weren’t without injury issues last season (fine, not as bad, but not a full squad) - LJ lost Afobe to long term injury, had Kalas and Dasilva in and out the team with injuries and Korey Smith missing until Jan IIRC. 
 

In terms of comparing points and positions, probably best done at the end of the season. At the moment, we look on current form, like we will need to go some to beat last season’s “miles off target” finish. 

Yes, we were struggling with fitness a year ago, too; I did refer to injuries last season. I suppose that it is, in part, what you have a head coach for: to manage things like this, injury crisees. 

I see Liverpool have appointed a 'Head of Recovery' - how long before everyone follows suit, and might we get ahead of the rest and sign one up now?

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