Where do we go from here?

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

 

And people say this platform is "depressing" and "toxic," (it is, and can be, but there's nuggets of gold in these 'ere otib hills, if you can only see them) and no-one at the club takes any notice whatsoever. Perhaps with some judicious browsing some at the club might with a little added humility learn something useful. At least get some thoughts beyond the Bristol Sport "group think." 

If you two are anywhere near right on this page, that is.

If you are, then what the fug is SL doing? Hibernating? Watching rugby, exclusively? What's he paying attention to? Are his "antennae" twitching and alarm bells ringing at the 1. Injury situation. 2. Recruitment ups and downs. 3. Level of entertainment?

Between you two and @Harry and one or two others, a persuasive case that Ashton is the problem is being presented and argued on these pages (and that, perhaps, firing LJ was re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic).

And those that will back the owner regardless on this platform and launch into the more rabid and OTT critics of SL appear to be absent from these threads and well-reasoned arguments and opinions. Conspicuous by their absence, even.

Which is worrying in itself, because maybe even they - the SL loyalists - can see that there is a big, big question mark against Ashton, and therefore SL. They can attack the more rabid/intellectually limited assaults on our benevolent owner but have nothing to come back with against the considered criticisms such as we see here.

 

 

I have no agenda behind anything I post on here, I have no ITK status (know a few people in the game) so most of my stuff is based on the knowledge of the pro game gleaned from them.  The rest is through research, both on the football and non-football / financial side.

Through this I do think Ashton is a problem.  He isn’t the whole problem, but our best chance of competing in this division with a sustainable strategy is to maximise our efficiencies in recruitment.  For all the bluster about how good it is, I think it’s been very poor.  The outside world doesn’t track every in and out like our own fans do....and most of us can see that for the millions raised, we’ve wasted millions too.

I can sit here and give MA a bit of praise for the fees gained for Reid, Bryan, Flint, Kodjia, Kelly, Brownhill and Webster (who have I missed), but in an inflationary market is it top drawer?  I don’t know.  He gets the benefit of the doubt from me.  But boy have we spent some millions too.  I don’t expect every signing to work out.  As I’ve said before if you look critically at players recruited in his time here and subsequently sold it looks pretty sub-standard imho.  And I wouldn’t say he’s got a conveyor belt of talent to argue that the next £10m-£15m sale of his sleeve, let alone 2 or 3 or 4 of them.

As our friend Ian of RB and FBC Pod would say....what’s his plan for the £14m of assets about to fall out of contract this summer,. I don’t always agree with him on the football front, but the Financial side I do.

I think we are moving in the direction of the 2012-ish.  It can be avoided, but I think it needs a huge revamp in recruitment.

33 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Fair enough, we wouldn't have breached under Cotterill as it stood- however had we signed Maguire and Gayle that summer e.g. that might have changed the equation=- either in terms of an embargo in January 2017 or in terms of need to trade.

I don't believe we were in a financial position to sign Maguire and Gayle in summer 2015 personally. Summer 2016 different story, but that ship had sailed by then. Still managed to make a £13m loss in 2015/16.

On another note, why did Burt leave? Was it just to bring Ashton back- seems like we recruited quite well in general. Still the problem would have come eventually- Maguire and Gayle in summer 2015, don't think it was feasible at that time.

Let’s just assume we did get Gray and Maguire at the alleged £4.5m and £2.0m and £14k and £10k wages.

Four year contracts:

Gray: £1.125m pa amortisation and £0.700m wages

Maguire: £0.500m pa and £0.500m

An increase in almost £3m on the accounts....pretty much offset by the increased tv money....and future years further offset by increased attendances and commercial stuff as the ground was finished.

I think it was possible.  A bit risky?  Yes....but with saleable assets (Smith, Freeman, Flint, Bryan, Pack, Kodjia and these new boys), maybe not as big as thought.

All speculative on my part, but you get the picture.

[Mr Popodopolous]

31 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I have no agenda behind anything I post on here, I have no ITK status (know a few people in the game) so most of my stuff is based on the knowledge of the pro game gleaned from them.  The rest is through research, both on the football and non-football / financial side.

Through this I do think Ashton is a problem.  He isn’t the whole problem, but our best chance of competing in this division with a sustainable strategy is to maximise our efficiencies in recruitment.  For all the bluster about how good it is, I think it’s been very poor.  The outside world doesn’t track every in and out like our own fans do....and most of us can see that for the millions raised, we’ve wasted millions too.

I can sit here and give MA a bit of praise for the fees gained for Reid, Bryan, Flint, Kodjia, Kelly, Brownhill and Webster (who have I missed), but in an inflationary market is it top drawer?  I don’t know.  He gets the benefit of the doubt from me.  But boy have we spent some millions too.  I don’t expect every signing to work out.  As I’ve said before if you look critically at players recruited in his time here and subsequently sold it looks pretty sub-standard imho.  And I wouldn’t say he’s got a conveyor belt of talent to argue that the next £10m-£15m sale of his sleeve, let alone 2 or 3 or 4 of them.

As our friend Ian of RB and FBC Pod would say....what’s his plan for the £14m of assets about to fall out of contract this summer,. I don’t always agree with him on the football front, but the Financial side I do.

I think we are moving in the direction of the 2012-ish.  It can be avoided, but I think it needs a huge revamp in recruitment.

Let’s just assume we did get Gray and Maguire at the alleged £4.5m and £2.0m and £14k and £10k wages.

Four year contracts:

Gray: £1.125m pa amortisation and £0.700m wages

Maguire: £0.500m pa and £0.500m

An increase in almost £3m on the accounts....pretty much offset by the increased tv money....and future years further offset by increased attendances and commercial stuff as the ground was finished.

I think it was possible.  A bit risky?  Yes....but with saleable assets (Smith, Freeman, Flint, Bryan, Pack, Kodjia and these new boys), maybe not as big as thought.

All speculative on my part, but you get the picture.

Gayle at £9m would have represented an issue for sure IMO. I am working on the assumption here that it would have been our recruitment that season as transpired plus Maguire and Gayle/Gray. If less would have come in as a result of those two, then it certainly seems more feasible.

Maguire and Gray- maybe would have worked. I'm looking at the one year for the 2015/16 season in isolation as well because clubs were judged on that too, in the final one year assessment as part of the transitional.

Saleable assets for sure- including those two. I think we were walking a bit of a tightrope at that time. Would Cotts have 'bought in' to that though, when the time came as it would have done where tough decisions on sales and trading were necessary?

All speculation on my part too.

Based on an old article I read, provided everything else had stayed the same that season, with Maguire and Gayle added to the incoming we would have exceeded FFP in that 1 year- Kieran Maguire had our allowable costs for that individual season at £2.7m, which sounds reasonable. Which meant we had £800k of headroom- but then again had we signed those two, no sacking of Cotts and costs, no recruitment of LJ and costs, possibly no January additions and cost. Maybe it could've worked but then again maybe we were caught between two stools a bit. I'm basing my calcs on the 2015/16 accounts and adding those two to it.

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Gayle at £9m would have represented an issue for sure IMO. I am working on the assumption here that it would have been our recruitment that season as transpired plus Maguire and Gayle/Gray. If less would have come in as a result of those two, then it certainly seems more feasible.

Maguire and Gray- maybe would have worked. I'm looking at the one year for the 2015/16 season in isolation as well because clubs were judged on that too, in the final one year assessment as part of the transitional.

Saleable assets for sure- including those two. I think we were walking a bit of a tightrope at that time. Would Cotts have 'bought in' to that though, when the time came as it would have done where tough decisions on sales and trading were necessary?

All speculation on my part too.

I always thought the sub-text on Gayle was £6m + £3m add-ons, e.g. promotion, not £9m.

It was not to be.  A great fantasy look forward though....just imagine.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

I always thought the sub-text on Gayle was £6m + £3m add-ons, e.g. promotion, not £9m.

It was not to be.  A great fantasy look forward though....just imagine.

The ultimate would have been, let's raise that bar- Gayle-Gray-Kodjia!

Front 3, but also both able to pull wide ie Gayle and Kodjia- especially the latter!

[exAtyeoMax]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Fair enough, we wouldn't have breached under Cotterill as it stood- however had we signed Maguire and Gayle that summer e.g. that might have changed the equation=- either in terms of an embargo in January 2017 or in terms of need to trade.

I don't believe we were in a financial position to sign Maguire and Gayle in summer 2015 personally. Summer 2016 different story, but that ship had sailed by then. Still managed to make a £13m loss in 2015/16.

On another note, why did Burt leave? Was it just to bring Ashton back- seems like we recruited quite well in general. Still the problem would have come eventually- Maguire and Gayle in summer 2015, don't think it was feasible at that time.

I seem to remember an article in the BEP with SL saying that KB didn't see eye to eye with their recruitment policy, and they didn't feel that he should remain in his post, or something like that (or that referred to another highly regarded scout (who possibly came from Liverpool?)). I got the impression that MA was here already when KB left (could be totally wrong on this).

[Davefevs]

38 minutes ago, exAtyeoMax said:

I seem to remember an article in the BEP with SL saying that KB didn't see eye to eye with their recruitment policy, and they didn't feel that he should remain in his post, or something like that (or that referred to another highly regarded scout (who possibly came from Liverpool?)). I got the impression that MA was here already when KB left (could be totally wrong on this).

It was announced that Burt left in March 2016....so not long after Cotts went....and went along with Academy boss Paul Groves (ex-Bournemouth).

So Ashton was here most definitely....as he was brought in to get rid of Cotts.

I think we can thank Burt alongside SOD and Cotts for signing some very good players who grew with the club, and many went on beyond.

This is an interesting thread from Jan 2016, just before Cotts got sacked.

You would think even in 2016 with the hindsight of the SOD foundations and Cotts recruits that Burt might’ve been offered some slack.  Did he and Cotts not bring some reasonable loans in too in the early stages of 15/16?

Looking back in 2021 (another 5 years), the bloke deserves a medal.

Especially when it appears that pre Burts arrival, it was Dawe and JL doing the negotiations, undoubtedly using MA’s database!!.

 

[RobintheRed Red]

On 31/12/2020 at 07:37, oldstandrobin said:

Another win on Tuesday, am watching Steve's tenure at the Shrews with interest as in my opinion ( and you may have yours) he was a breath of fresh air at AG in the last ten years.

Definately you dont know what you lost till its gone .

[Ivorguy]

To answer the original question; there are only two ways to go  in football, up or down. Standing still is usually only an option for one season, after a promotion.

Judging City over last three years or so down looks the most likely answer, especially if you take into account comments on other live threads re SL, MA, and DH., and most of our other seasons at this level.

 

 

[phantom]

On 30/12/2020 at 22:58, City1970 said:

You mention "ego" I think this is a problem in football. Ashton appears to have an ego, just like LJ. Mick McCarthy is another with an ego. I don't think Ashton will want another who will be hard to deal with due to their ego. He is top dog in his own eyes.

Just been given the boot at APOEL after less than two months in charge (along with his assistant Terry Connor)

[Sheltons Army]

On 30/12/2020 at 22:58, City1970 said:

You mention "ego" I think this is a problem in football. Ashton appears to have an ego, just like LJ. Mick McCarthy is another with an ego. I don't think Ashton will want another who will be hard to deal with due to their ego. He is top dog in his own eyes. 

If Ian and Mark who you mention are the guys who phone in on RB, they always seem to say what I am thinking after each game, keep it going lads. 

 

When exactly has Mick McCarthy ever shown an ‘Ego’

Id suggest anything but , - very down to earth and would have him here without a second thought 

[Lanterne Rouge]

6 hours ago, Sheltons Army said:

When exactly has Mick McCarthy ever shown an ‘Ego’

Id suggest anything but , - very down to earth and would have him here without a second thought 

I must confess, out of all the names that were bandied about back in the summer, he was my pick.

[City1970]

7 hours ago, Sheltons Army said:

When exactly has Mick McCarthy ever shown an ‘Ego’

Id suggest anything but , - very down to earth and would have him here without a second thought 

I think Roy Keane would disagree. This is what he said about McCarthy in 2002.

Not one to mince his words, Keane replied: "You’re a ******* w**ker. I didn’t rate you as a player, I don’t rate you as a manager and I don’t rate you as a person. You’re a ******* w**ker and you can stick your World Cup up your arse. I’ve got no respect for you. The only reason I have any dealings with you is that somehow you are the manager of my country! You can stick it up your b****cks."

Probably a clash of egos. 

[Sheltons Army]

13 minutes ago, City1970 said:

I think Roy Keane would disagree. This is what he said about McCarthy in 2002.

Not one to mince his words, Keane replied: "You’re a ******* w**ker. I didn’t rate you as a player, I don’t rate you as a manager and I don’t rate you as a person. You’re a ******* w**ker and you can stick your World Cup up your arse. I’ve got no respect for you. The only reason I have any dealings with you is that somehow you are the manager of my country! You can stick it up your b****cks."

Probably a clash of egos. 

Sorry , am I missing something

What relevance has one of Roy Keane numerous rants about something ?

Where is there an indication , even in Keanes tantrum , that McCarthy has an ego ?

Probably a clash of egos ?

 

Is that your best evidence ?

 

I think you need to look back at what Keanes complaints were at the time