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Robins & Bears. Compare & Contrast


BigAl&Toby

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Don't think it's quite as simple as to compare the two sports, even though I agree that we are not progressing as we should, due to the reigns being held tightly by the owner.

Rugby has far fewer professional teams playing at a top level, this means there is a higher percentage of players in Rugby that have played at a higher level. Ultimately there is a relatively large pool of experts/former pros to select from when it comes to management appointments in relation to how many jobs there are.

In football, there is a massive amount of professional players within the game but, a smaller percentage that have played and achieved success at the top level. Therefore those that have played at the top level and are likely to be more knowledgeable, with better contacts, are in demand from the teams higher up the football pyramid. This leaves the teams lower down the ladder having to pick from the rest of the pool.

Possibly 12 top rugby teams in England with various players from around the world, probably something like 300 ex players who've represented their country or have tasted success in league or cup competitions. Compare that to football in England where there are 12 top teams with a similar amount of players who've done likewise, but a vast number of clubs with players not reaching the dizzy heights of success. 

Maybe the figures are not actually correct but, it's just a picture I'm trying to paint. That we can't all have the top former players/experts, as there are fewer who fit that description. 

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2 hours ago, Jacki said:

Agree with much of what’s been said here... there’s a clear disparity between the upward trajectory of the Bears compared to City for all the reasons @Kid in the Riotstates.

My view, alongside that so clearly explained by kid and others, is that SL’s attachment to Ashton is based on his ability as a negotiator and businessman. While we keep selling a player or two per year for a huge profit and bob around in the middle of the Championship, SL is happy with Ashton’s work. That keeps us ticking along self sustainably, which is what SL wants. Ashton will only be questioned if we start to drop down the league and/or the conveyer belt of saleable talent dries up so we start losing fortunes again.

The only thing that made me doubt this theory was when, back in the summer, LJ was sacked for finishing mid table. I thought at that point that, just maybe, we are going to have a real go at promotion. Then we appointed Holden...

The only way we’ll get promoted with Ashton here is if we get fortunate and everything goes our way. The strategy of appointing managers who are essentially yes men will just keep us where we are now, or mean that we go backwards and end up struggling. It’s only a relegation that would lead to SL even thinking about moving Ashton on, IMO. 

What sustainability??

2017/18 accounts showed £25m losses, 2018/19 showed OPERATING losses of £25-26m. Profit on transfers took it to a £10-11m profit for the season but the operating loss is the underlying figure.

To look at it another way BEFORE any ins and outs, ie if we've signed or sold nobody, loss stated in accounts as £15m and £17m respectively.

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49 teams have played in the Football  Premier league . We are not one of them. Our average league position, over history is low 30's . So on any way of looking at it, we have failed badly, or generously, have returned to our natural league position of all time.

The financial comparisons with rugby are of course nonsense, SL is a big fish in that pond, and you can easily front load a players salary to have more star players on your books than would seemingly be impossible ( 2 star players outside the cap) . If you want to have success for your money , you are more likely to get that with rugby . That SL , aided by Tainton and Booy have set up a totally different level of ability, expertise and coaching is no surprise.

The big shock is that looking at that success, looking at the better periods of success under SL at the football club ( GJ and SC) then the current set up and decsions makes absolutely no sense. There is nowhere in SL business sphere where he would employ a total novice (Ashton) and a zero experienced man (Holden) to take a project to the top of the game. 

If you think of the players Ashton inherited , Kodja, Reid, Flint, Bryan, Kelly and you have a nice starting point. That the Kodja windfall was wasted o poor signings, and made it impossible for the club to meet FFP without selling Bryan and Reid, seems to get lost. The only successes of Ashton are Brownhill (who LJ essentially highlighted) and Webster. The random signings of players , and it has to be random because we have no identified playing process at the club has wasted millions more. We them move back to type, and start signing a player like Wells, end of career, big fee (for us) and not a hope of getting an uplft. We could go into detail of dozens of players. It is hapless. No transfer can be a guarantee, but you have to be better than the rest if you want to compete. We are not. We are using the same databases as everyone else. They have all put the "Ronaldo" data in and got the same result. Physical scouting is still essential, and we are nowhere near close.

So , recruitment is poor. Some say, well we are doing OK, well those other 49 teams that have been in the Prem have clearly done something different. Over the last 10 years all but 2 clubs have got the Prem with a manager that has been in place more than 2 seasons. Even then one other was due to double promotions coming fro L1. So a manger can make a difference, and quickly. 

Another trait, often heard with City, is to point to clubs doing worse than we are. This is slightly baffling, and is an excuse generating mentality, and it is wiser to look at the better examples not the worse ones. 

The bottom line

Do we have the best recruitment system in place in our league and our budget ? Clearly No

Do we have the best coach in place to define a path forward ? Clearly No

So it is quite impossible to understand how Sl, a very intelligent, able, successful and talented person, continues to accept average ability across the board at HIS football club. He needs to rapidly dispense of Ashton (who has really warped SL mind, and made him detached and sadly even arrogant- check the change point in behaviour) and put in place (even if he talks to others in the game) an executive CEO with deep higher level football experience and a DOF with a breadth and knowledge of the game to advise. Define how BCFC want to operate, Brentford , Southampton , Leeds, choose something, and then put in place a top to bottom execution, scouts, coaches, analysts . When you are doing that, you can start to think of who is the ideal first team coach is.  

Should we all be all bowing down to SL as he has recently suggested we should ? Respect yes, but ....

The investment level in the overall project is certainly conditioned by the asset value, as an  ongoing concerns and real estate. There has been no reckless spending . If SL sold the package now, would he get his money back ? Pretty much yes . 

He is not a crook, has not been laundering money, and has been a stable and reliable owner. But successful owner ? Not really, for all the talk, all the money, there is not the breakthrough that by now after 2 decades you would have thought had matured. That is the sad part for him, and will be his defining legacy as there is not a hope the current approach will yield Prem football anytime soon. Indeed, with the 3 rd season of dreadful football it looks far more like a side going the other way. As a minimum it should be enjoyable to watch the team play. 

That is his choice, he is doing nothing illegal , but it is baffling in extreme why he does not put in place the people to achieve what he claims is the goal, but his actions say otherwise. Why ? 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I was actually stating the same as you.  Just because SL has created a lovely infrastructure you could argue it’s held back the football side.  Could we be in the same, if not better position taking a different approach with less investment.

What if the focus had been on playing side, get to Prem and let Prem money fund the infrastructure.

I know there are no givens, but there is more than one way to achieve success.

I do think the Bristol Sport model is a bit misunderstood.  I see it more as a branding and a way of achieving operational efficiencies through ticketing, marketing etc.

Plenty of other clubs outsource ticketing, marketing etc, they just do it to 3rd parties, which is all we are doing, just that this 3rd party is owned by SL under Pula Sports.

Agreed, so it is an empire. 

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Let’s start with the Bears hierarchy: 

Owner: SL

Directors (4): Tainton (Bristol’s all-time record points scorer), Booy (the last bastion of the old Bristol), Marshall (finance man) JL (nepotism). 

City’s hierarchy: 

Owner: SL

Directors (3): Ashton (no experience as a player, no affiliation to the club), Harman (ceremonial figure), JL (nepotism). 

Key differences: 
• Fewer directors on the City board leads to less scrutiny
• Booy and Tainton look after Bristol’s best interests, nobody on City’s oard has any prior affiliation with the club 
• Nobody on the City board has any playing or coaching experience in professional football, while Tainton is a Bristol hero.
• In his own mind, SL thinks he knows more about football than he does rugby and therefore takes a more hands-on role in us compared to the Bears. 

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8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It's a tired comparison in some ways @BigAl&Toby

FFP, Parachute Payments are two factors. Whereas in Rugby there is a salary cap!

Money will buy you a lot more in Rugby too. Partly due to said salary cap?

You can argue the salary cap point the other way too, the Premiership is more of a level playing field because of it. Ergo, success is harder to "buy". 

The salary cap is being reduced in two years as well, so SL won't be able to pump millions in willy nilly. 

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27 minutes ago, City1970 said:

The Lansdowns have created a sporting empire. If SL wanted to sell the club, I am sure there are rich people out there waiting to invest. Just look how the Gas are flourishing under rich ownership ! 

Perhaps the Bristol Sport model is, better the devil you know. 

Its not just BCFC anymore is it, its just part of something much bigger, is there any way of getting an investor to buy just part of something? they would have no control, they would have to take 51% of the whole empire cake and SL would not be allowing that to happen....anytime in our lifetimes

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4 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

You can argue the salary cap point the other way too, the Premiership is more of a level playing field because of it. Ergo, success is harder to "buy". 

The salary cap is being reduced in two years as well, so SL won't be able to pump millions in willy nilly. 

Yes, agree on that.

No doubt Pat Lam has done great work, and it does level up (or level down). 

Do managerial and coaching salaries count towards it do you know? I'm going to guess not, but a more cost effective approach in football may be hire a high class manager/management team.

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2 minutes ago, glos old boy said:

Its not just BCFC anymore is it, its just part of something much bigger, is there any way of getting an investor to buy just part of something? they would have no control, they would have to take 51% of the whole empire cake and SL would not be allowing that to happen....anytime in our lifetimes

If Lansdown ever wanted to sell City he could. He will not have to sell 51% of his empire. 

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14 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

What sustainability??

2017/18 accounts showed £25m losses, 2018/19 showed OPERATING losses of £25-26m. Profit on transfers took it to a £10-11m profit for the season but the operating loss is the underlying figure.

To look at it another way BEFORE any ins and outs, ie if we've signed or sold nobody, loss stated in accounts as £15m and £17m respectively.

This is the point I was trying to make. Player trading has kept us ‘in the black’ in the last couple of years, and I think SL sees that as an important part of the model. It’s the only way we can turn a total profit while we’re a championship club losing fortunes operationally. 

As the man responsible for negotiating the fees, I imagine SL sees Ashton as the key part in keeping our heads above water in that context.  

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One or two on here mention Brentford on this thread. Rightly so too, great model.

The thing is, they're quite keen on data and analytics I believe, with respect to recruitment.

What is the difference I guess, between their use of analytics, data, stats etc for recruitment...and ours.

You mentioned recruitment @Psychopomp. Don't think that bad, reasonable Championship side, some of them certainly contributed to our Cup run, or did a job tactically. 

Just don't think it was stellar either. Definitely from a sell on value, lots of it was very poor.

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1 minute ago, Jacki said:

This is the point I was trying to make. Player trading has kept us ‘in the black’ in the last couple of years, and I think SL sees that as an important part of the model. It’s the only way we can turn a total profit while we’re a championship club losing fortunes operationally. 

As the man responsible for negotiating the fees, I imagine SL sees Ashton as the key part in keeping our heads above water in that context.  

....and my analysis would say we have gone beyond a point where the costs have grown to such an extent that you have to deteriorate the squad in each window to comply with FFP.

The strategy is therefore failing, as the balance has tipped too far.  Nor do we have another Kelly or Webster to sell.

So they need to reduce costs to lessen the need to sell.

23C7711A-D56D-47D8-901A-00D8E4DA9203.thumb.jpeg.4a65515554891bbe1f4739d5480d6016.jpeg

Some of those costs (£10m+) are amortisation.  That goes hand in hand in fees paid, so that needs looking at.  Wages obviously, a trimmer squad perhaps? But other costs too, growing year on year.

I think we’ve been loose with our cost control overall.  It’s only gonna look worse with COVID affecting revenues.

 

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8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

....and my analysis would say we have gone beyond a point where the costs have grown to such an extent that you have to deteriorate the squad in each window to comply with FFP.

The strategy is therefore failing, as the balance has tipped too far.  Nor do we have another Kelly or Webster to sell.

So they need to reduce costs to lessen the need to sell.

23C7711A-D56D-47D8-901A-00D8E4DA9203.thumb.jpeg.4a65515554891bbe1f4739d5480d6016.jpeg

Some of those costs (£10m+) are amortisation.  That goes hand in hand in fees paid, so that needs looking at.  Wages obviously, a trimmer squad perhaps? But other costs too, growing year on year.

I think we’ve been loose with our cost control overall.  It’s only gonna look worse with COVID affecting revenues.

 

This is my concern with where we are now. As you say, there are no real saleable assets at the club now, not for big money anyway. With the impact of Covid and no real prospect of many/any big money sales, we’ll lose an absolute fortune this financial year.  

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10 years ago Bristol Rugby were languishing in the middle of the Championship. All the best players had been moved on to save money, after the team had failed to bounce back into the Premiership immediately, and the situation as a Bris fan was pretty dreadful. 

I love and have been a season ticket holder at both Bris and City. 

The question I would ask fellow reds is if they would be prepared to give up as much as the Rugby fans have had to in order to achieve success? 

Bris have lost their traditional home (though that was stolen by the Sags long before), had a rediculous name change forced on them and even the traditional shirt colour is now a mishmash of red and blue. 

The eyes were moist when we won the European Challenge cup but it came at the cost of the above. 

Bristol Rugby failed to adapt rapidly enough in the 90s to the new professional model and for many years tried to cling on to the amateur ethos. In many ways they were fortunate to be around after the likes of Orrell, West Hartlepool, London Welsh and Scottish and Richmond have shown what happens when it all goes wrong. 

Once Bris were placed on a secure financial footing their ability to compete was much more straight forward. Having the Championship play offs scrapped also helped. Once back in the top flight the gain made in having the right on pitch set up and coaching has taken care of the rest. 

For City, its a more difficult picture. There's no denying the off pitch activity needed to be brought up to date. The stadium, the facilities, the fans village etc are all now 21st century. A far cry from the walk in hut shop at the back of the old Williams stand in the car park. 

For City to bridge the on field gap in the same way the Rugby club has to achieve their success, will need a corresponding level of investment. In Football, the gap between the Championship and the Premiership is bigger and the gap between the top and bottom half of the Prem is even wider. Therefore the on pitch investment needs to be correspondingly bigger. 

Just to go up will take strong on field investment under a coach who can ensure that the performances match the investment. 

Can anyone see Holden achieving that level of performance with City in comparison to how Pat Lam has done it with the Rugby Club? 

If, for example, we look at the last 5 years in the Championship and the managers that have gained promotion to the Premier league, where would you honestly place Holden on that list? 

In short, Bris have invested heavily on the field in quality coaching and playing staff but the price of that investment is the complete rewriting of the clubs identity and helped by there being a much smaller performance gap in top flight rugby so a well run club can gain comparatively more for less outlay. 

For City, the off field is now exactly where it should be for a club with our ambition but the performance investment hasn't been the same on the pitch. We need a promotion quality coaching staff and promotion quality signings. After the 2017-18 season we've stagnated. Selling our better players and not finding the right formula with those brought in. 

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9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

One or two on here mention Brentford on this thread. Rightly so too, great model.

The thing is, they're quite keen on data and analytics I believe, with respect to recruitment.

What is the difference I guess, between their use of analytics, data, stats etc for recruitment...and ours.

You mentioned recruitment @Psychopomp. Don't think that bad, reasonable Championship side, some of them certainly contributed to our Cup run, or did a job tactically. 

Just don't think it was stellar either. Definitely from a sell on value, lots of it was very poor.

The big difference, Brentford have their own proprietary data model. They have a clearly defined way of playing, and search for characteristics in players that meet that, and the model is based on those attributes. They also have extensive eyeball on the player scouts . They also plan in advance player sales so that replacements are either already at the club, or are arriving. They have no youth teams, and let Prem clubs etc. spend on initial training. It is a clear model and has excellent application. They play pretty damn good football too. Look at who they sold last season and how they play this year . It is impressive. 

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2 hours ago, Numero Uno said:

Yet Brentford, traditionally a far smaller club than us seem to be leaving us in their slipstream. If they can become a proper force at this level we do not have an excuse for what we have produced for the last three years now.

I’m not saying we can’t achieve what Brentford are doing (though they are still in the same division last time I looked ?). But I’d argue they are overachieving.

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1 minute ago, steveybadger said:

I’m not saying we can’t achieve what Brentford are doing (though they are still in the same division last time I looked ?). But I’d argue they are overachieving.

Agreed with one huge difference. If I was watching Bristol City failing to get to the Premiership but playing the type of football that Brentford play I wouldn’t have anything to complain about, nothing at all.

With the squad we’ve got we simply cannot play that football unfortunately or anything remotely approaching it and to me that is where my issue with the top management of the club is.

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1 minute ago, Numero Uno said:

Agreed with one huge difference. If I was watching Bristol City failing to get to the Premiership but playing the type of football that Brentford play I wouldn’t have anything to complain about, nothing at all.

With the squad we’ve got we simply cannot play that football unfortunately or anything remotely approaching it and to me that is where my issue with the top management of the club is.

True, though earlier in the season I was enjoying games (in terms of style) more than I had for some time. At that point all those involved were still the same.

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42 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

....and my analysis would say we have gone beyond a point where the costs have grown to such an extent that you have to deteriorate the squad in each window to comply with FFP.

The strategy is therefore failing, as the balance has tipped too far.  Nor do we have another Kelly or Webster to sell.

So they need to reduce costs to lessen the need to sell.

23C7711A-D56D-47D8-901A-00D8E4DA9203.thumb.jpeg.4a65515554891bbe1f4739d5480d6016.jpeg

Some of those costs (£10m+) are amortisation.  That goes hand in hand in fees paid, so that needs looking at.  Wages obviously, a trimmer squad perhaps? But other costs too, growing year on year.

I think we’ve been loose with our cost control overall.  It’s only gonna look worse with COVID affecting revenues.

 

The optimist in me would be hoping that SL is playing a waiting game this season. Covid driven costs will be down (Are this years books being used for FFP?) we have half of the pro squad out of contract in the summer so the wage bill will be reduced allowing a re build of the squad. A cheap head coach and staff in place so that when the summer comes and income streams will go up, we can get a new coaching set up in as this one will be cheap to replace and we will have scope to re build the squad to an extent and continue with our youth policy building for the next few years?

The realist in me says nah, we are just going round in circles again..

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34 minutes ago, Psychopomp said:

The big difference, Brentford have their own proprietary data model. They have a clearly defined way of playing, and search for characteristics in players that meet that, and the model is based on those attributes. They also have extensive eyeball on the player scouts . They also plan in advance player sales so that replacements are either already at the club, or are arriving. They have no youth teams, and let Prem clubs etc. spend on initial training. It is a clear model and has excellent application. They play pretty damn good football too. Look at who they sold last season and how they play this year . It is impressive. 

In. A. Nutshell.

Its a working / workable strategy, not a theoretical strap line.

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35 minutes ago, Jacki said:

This is my concern with where we are now. As you say, there are no real saleable assets at the club now, not for big money anyway. With the impact of Covid and no real prospect of many/any big money sales, we’ll lose an absolute fortune this financial year.  

"We'll"?

All the club debt is accumulated and signed off by the club's owner, who then pays the debt off. Steve is paying off debt which is owed to...himself. 

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3 minutes ago, M.D said:

The optimist in me would be hoping that SL is playing a waiting game this season. Covid driven costs will be down (Are this years books being used for FFP?) we have half of the pro squad out of contract in the summer so the wage bill will be reduced allowing a re build of the squad. A cheap head coach and staff in place so that when the summer comes and income streams will go up, we can get a new coaching set up in as this one will be cheap to replace and we will have scope to re build the squad to an extent and continue with our youth policy building for the next few years?

The realist in me says nah, we are just going round in circles again..

The problem is filling that £25m+ gap between income and costs each season (in a normal world).

Even if we were starting from a lower cost base, you still need top-quality recruitment, something we are not proven in.

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5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The problem is filling that £25m+ gap between income and costs each season (in a normal world).

Even if we were starting from a lower cost base, you still need top-quality recruitment, something we are not proven in.

...and this is where our pack of cards collapse. 

Our scouting has been below average, player development likewise and Academy, at best, average.

For the strategy to work - as Brentford have shown - we need above-average in all three.

You might be able to meddle through for one season being below average, four years plus and serious structural problems develop. 

Where does the buck stop? The CEO.

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55 minutes ago, steveybadger said:

I’m not saying we can’t achieve what Brentford are doing (though they are still in the same division last time I looked ?). But I’d argue they are overachieving.

I am. There’s no chance in hell we could recreate what Brentford has under SL, because it involves SL admitting he’s wrong in more ways than one. Benham, the Brentford owner, is also a big Brentford fan and football fan in general. The same can’t be said about SL. Benham has a clear, sustainable vision for Brentford. Again, the same can’t be said about SL. 

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2 hours ago, City1970 said:

I personally share your view, the devil you know thing was me playing devil's advocate. I want to see some risk and ambition being shown by SL. Appointing DH is not being ambitious but being cautious. 

Is just like to see someone at Bristol Ciy roll the dice and have a proper go for once... be that SL, MA, Dean Holden I don’t much care... blimey even one of our players rolling the dice and having a shot would be a tiny step forward! 

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9 hours ago, BigAl&Toby said:

So the Bears beat Newcastle yesterday to go second in the Premiership.

Four wins on the bounce and a nice tasty top of the table clash against Exeter to look forward to.

Compare that to the Robins. Recent performances and league position already well debated and documented on here......

But that’s got me thinking. What do the Bears do or have done that seems to make them more successful than us? Is there anything that as a football club we could learn from them, how they operate and who they appoint - on and off the pitch?

After all there are a few common denominators......

Thiughts anyone?

Bears appoint a top coach and recognised high level signings. We get a cheap novice coach, sell our best players and replace them with bargain basement options. 

Summary it is cheaper to feed your ego in rugby than football and SL feels that one successful franchise is enough

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13 minutes ago, Clutton Caveman said:

Bears appoint a top coach and recognised high level signings. We get a cheap novice coach, sell our best players and replace them with bargain basement options. 

Summary it is cheaper to feed your ego in rugby than football and SL feels that one successful franchise is enough

FFP, Parachute Payments- vs Salary cap which doesn't AFAIK include coaching staff and coaches. FFP DOES!

The losses are in football vs those in rugby are astronomical.

We do not have much more headroom- happy to post it again but...with rounding for simplicity.

1) Operating loss in 2018/19- ie before player sale profit- £25-26m.

2) Overall loss in 2017/18- £25m.

Where is this headroom to push the boat out further?

Where is the headroom- what is your alternative Business Plan. I believe we are hemmed in this season, somewhat.

58 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

"We'll"?

All the club debt is accumulated and signed off by the club's owner, who then pays the debt off. Steve is paying off debt which is owed to...himself. 

Some bank debt aside? Page 33-35 of the Bristol City Holdings Accounts. Mind you it is seemingly guaranteed by SL/Pula?

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16 minutes ago, tin said:

I am. There’s no chance in hell we could recreate what Brentford has under SL, because it involves SL admitting he’s wrong in more ways than one. Benham, the Brentford owner, is also a big Brentford fan and football fan in general. The same can’t be said about SL. Benham has a clear, sustainable vision for Brentford. Again, the same can’t be said about SL. 

Out of interest If he’s not a fan why would SL spend 20 years here spending huge amounts on infrastructure and yes, players if he had no interest in football or City? I’m Just struggling with his motivation? I don’t buy the inference that there’s some sort of secret project going on where he is or will eventually make a shedload of cash. He is a multi millionaire - if he wanted to make cash I seriously doubt he’d be involved in sport in general?

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