Talent ID - The Comings & Goings - The Long List

[Davefevs]

Since Keith Burt left in March 2016, the Recruitment Department / Talent ID Team under Mark Ashton has presided over 63 transfers to the club (16 Loans, 12 Frees and 35 Fees).  Therefore you won't see Bobby Reid, Aden Flint, etc in this list.

Based on info gleaned from multiple sources, those 35 Fees have cost £59.45m.  There is also signing-on fees, loan fees, agent fees to be included but there is no reliable source for this.

Of the 47 players signed permanently (35 Fees plus 12 Free), 22 have been sold for £36.95m (-£22.5m deficit).  If you take into account most of this has been in an inflationary market where our strategy is predominantly to buy younger players, develop and sell them for a profit, that's not that great

Of those 47 players signed, 25 remain, but 10 are out of contract this summer.

I have given every player a simple rating based on their playing value for City, their Financial value (if no longer here) or their Current Value (if still here).  Loan players have no Financial value rating.

As it stands only two players brought to the club in the last 4 seasons and subsequently sold get a green blob for both elements:

- Josh Brownhill

- Adam Webster

Only two players in the current squad if sold today would get two green blobs:

- Tyreeq Bakinson

- Dan Bentley

There are some where you may argue differently, but Jay Dasilva has played well for us (green blob) but would we recoup / improve on the £2.5m ovulated based on his worrying shin issues (amber blob)?

Joe Williams gets a red blob for performance with City, but would probably make us a profit (green blob).

Happy to take feedback on individuals (or if I've missed someone), but I've erred on the generous side for the likes of Afobe and Mawson, even though over a season or half-season you'd assess differently.

So, is this a class-leading recruitment team?  Id say its one that's benefitted a lot from previous Recruitment teams, and the trend is towards ending up with a repeat of where we were when SOD took over.

I know its an age-old topic on OTIB, but I thought it would be good to pull together one single list of players once and fall all with fees, etc.

 

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Since Keith Burt left in March 2016, the Recruitment Department / Talent ID Team under Mark Ashton has presided over 63 transfers to the club (16 Loans, 12 Frees and 35 Fees).  Therefore you won't see Bobby Reid, Aden Flint, etc in this list.

Based on info gleaned from multiple sources, those 35 Fees have cost £59.45m.  There is also signing-on fees, loan fees, agent fees to be included but there is no reliable source for this.

Of the 47 players signed permanently (35 Fees plus 12 Free), 22 have been sold for £36.95m (-£22.5m deficit).  If you take into account most of this has been in an inflationary market where our strategy is predominantly to buy younger players, develop and sell them for a profit, that's not that great

Of those 47 players signed, 25 remain, but 10 are out of contract this summer.

I have given every player a simple rating based on their playing value for City, their Financial value (if no longer here) or their Current Value (if still here).  Loan players have no Financial value rating.

As it stands only two players brought to the club in the last 4 seasons and subsequently sold get a green blob for both elements:

- Josh Brownhill

- Adam Webster

Only two players in the current squad if sold today would get two green blobs:

- Tyreeq Bakinson

- Dan Bentley

There are some where you may argue differently, but Jay Dasilva has played well for us (green blob) but would we recoup / improve on the £2.5m ovulated based on his worrying shin issues (amber blob)?

Joe Williams gets a red blob for performance with City, but would probably make us a profit (green blob).

Happy to take feedback on individuals (or if I've missed someone), but I've erred on the generous side for the likes of Afobe and Mawson, even though over a season or half-season you'd assess differently.

So, is this a class-leading recruitment team?  Id say its one that's benefitted a lot from previous Recruitment teams, and the trend is towards ending up with a repeat of where we were when SOD took over.

I know its an age-old topic on OTIB, but I thought it would be good to pull together one single list of players once and fall all with fees, etc.

 

This is a good try but there are several strange ratings here: Jack Hunt and Tommy Rowe only yellow blobs as players?  Diedhiou our top scorer for three (?) seasons but only yellow?  All very subjective, but you do seem to have erred on the negative side more often than not, which skews the outcome (which maybe is what you wanted).  It’s a little disingenuous to present opinions as though they are facts.

Also, I hate to be pedantic but the ‘fee paid’ and ‘fee rec’d’ columns should be (k), not (m).

[pongo88]

Thanks. This is interesting . Could agree / disagree with the various ratings but it’s useful to be reminded of all the comings and going’s in recent years.

[Sheltons Army]

4 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

This is a good try but there are several strange ratings here: Jack Hunt and Tommy Rowe only yellow blobs as players?  Diedhiou our top scorer for three (?) seasons but only yellow?  All very subjective, but you do seem to have erred on the negative side more often than not, which skews the outcome (which maybe is what you wanted).  It’s a little disingenuous to present opinions as though they are facts.

Also, I hate to be pedantic but the ‘fee paid’ and ‘fee rec’d’ columns should be (k), not (m).

Famara (Top,Scorer means that , doesn’t automatically qualify him as a success) It’s  Looking like with fee paid and wages he will have cost us somewhere approaching £3 million p.a 

You think that’s a success / playing value  ?

And Jack Hunt at £1.6m replacing £200k Luke Ayling who is twice the player 

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

This is a good try but there are several strange ratings here: Jack Hunt and Tommy Rowe only yellow blobs as players?  Diedhiou our top scorer for three (?) seasons but only yellow?  All very subjective, but you do seem to have erred on the negative side more often than not, which skews the outcome (which maybe is what you wanted).  It’s a little disingenuous to present opinions as though they are facts.

Also, I hate to be pedantic but the ‘fee paid’ and ‘fee rec’d’ columns should be (k), not (m).

I’m a Hunt fan, but has he been better than a top half RB?

Has Diedhiou been better than a top half CF (especially for £5.3m)?  I admit I could argue either way, but went for amber because I think he’s been mixed and there is more than just goals.

I haven’t presented them as facts, I’ve clearly stated they are my ratings / opinion and invited feedback.

Im sure I won’t be 100% consistent, but I wanted a simple red / amber / green way of rating.

As for pedantism, “m” is correct, that is a decimal point not a comma!

[Red Skin]

Nice work @Davefevs

Can't debate the blobs as I'm red/green colourblind, but I'm with you in Diedhiou.

[Kid in the Riot]

So the two best signings thus far have basically been LJ picks (Brownhill and Webster)!!

With that monetary deficit, which would have been even worse were it not for the profit made on those two players, there is a pretty big question mark over MA's head. 

[The Fat Controller]

29 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

This is a good try but there are several strange ratings here: Jack Hunt and Tommy Rowe only yellow blobs as players?  Diedhiou our top scorer for three (?) seasons but only yellow?  All very subjective, but you do seem to have erred on the negative side more often than not, which skews the outcome (which maybe is what you wanted).  It’s a little disingenuous to present opinions as though they are facts.

Also, I hate to be pedantic but the ‘fee paid’ and ‘fee rec’d’ columns should be (k), not (m).

Agree with this. Think there a some very harsh ratings on the playing value. 

I also think that it's difficult to consider playing value without taking into account the fee paid. For example, I was happy enough with Maenpaa's contributions in the context of him being a free signing, but maybe wouldn't have been so satisfied if we'd paid a fee for him whereas I am particularly unhappy with Wells' contributions in the context of him costing us a fat wedge. 

[Shuffle]

Good work @Davefevs

The recruitment has not been good enough and do we even have a chief scout these days?? I know the recruitment team report into Mark Ashton but who is in this team?? The deficit on his watch is staggering and even more alarming is those with in our squad who will make a profit.

When compared to Brentford we are miles away and no self respecting manager would stake his reputation with Ashton calling the shots on signings. That’s why Paul Cook wasn’t entertained as he isn’t a yes man.  When you look at the amount spent why the hell haven’t we got a football man rather than a business man managing recruitment at our club?

Now I do not profess to know ins and outs of the club but it appears that something is fundamentally wrong and if multiple signings are from one agent, then it stinks as that’s surely not a coincidence 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Interesting stuff @Davefevs

Very high turnover, churn of players which cannot help financially or cohesion wise- accept some is necessary for financial reasons!

I still think our recruitment has been middling from a general POV, financially not so good.

In terms of sell on value, I'd suggest the following would have been hoped for- hopes don't always materialise of course but hoped for...looking at age, ceiling etc. Of the current squad and excluding those we've signed on loan- and loaned out:

1. Bentley
2. Moore
3. DaSilva
4. Walsh
5. Williams
6. Bakinson
7. Massengo
8. Semenyo

Add Palmer, loaned out. Jonny Smith too? Just had a look and we signed him from Wrexham- assumed he was academy.

Could make a case for one or two more, but once they get past say 25, 26- how much are they going to increase in value? Goalkeepers aside!

[spudski]

Is there a correlation with certain agents being used?

Do we refuse to work with some agents?

Do we limit our pool of targets depending on what Agents we are willing to work with?

Does MA have 'preferred' working relationships? 

[archie andrews]

i knew we would have been better off with amanda holden.....at least she might have spotted some talent.......

[tin]

Good work, @Davefevs, which reinforces my opinion that Ashton and his team of analysts are coming up short. Why those roles haven’t been scrutinised sooner, I don’t know. 

[Sheltons Army]

23 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

So the two best signings thus far have basically been LJ picks (Brownhill and Webster)!!

With that monetary deficit, which would have been even worse were it not for the profit made on those two players, there is a pretty big question mark over MA's head. 

Not sure how you can say this Kid

So the rest are down to Mark Ashton are they ?
 

BOTH culpable as one another

The Johnson & Ashton era of missed opportunity to build on what SC left

[Mr Popodopolous]

Quick q also @Davefevs

How many players that you had marked down as failing had injury as a key feature of their time here? On the playing side, not the monetary side I mean.

Having a quick scan of that list- Hegeler, O'Neil, Djuric are 3. Arguably Walsh and Watkins another 2- mitigating factor, potentially.

[Furious Custard]

The list only paints one half of the picture in terms of recruitment. Its not representative of who or what was available at the market at the time. This season we reportedly beat out some bigger names for the likes of Sessegnon, Mawson and Williams. it also doesn't take into account the ones that got away (not Moteab") that were available but outside of our wage structure or not interested in life down south.

Plenty of players on there I disagree with ratings. Fam, Baker, Taylor, Steele, Nikki, Rowe, Kalas all should be green in terms of playing value for what they offered during their time here. There is a definite negative bias in this from my point of view. There are plenty of players on this list that were exciting signings when they were made that the majority of the forum were excited and praising the club getting them to sign for us. Remember when we signed Tomlin, or Baker or Kalas, Dasilva and Palmer to name a few, all players we had seen play before that brought genuine optimism to pre-season. From what I can see It's the main man in the dugout that's been the root of our problems. The recruitment team have done an overall good job in the last 4 years with the players we have been able to tempt to the once 'Little Bristol City'. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, Furious Custard said:

The list only paints one half of the picture in terms of recruitment. Its not representative of who or what was available at the market at the time. This season we reportedly beat out some bigger names for the likes of Sessegnon, Mawson and Williams. it also doesn't take into account the ones that got away (not Moteab") that were available but outside of our wage structure or not interested in life down south.

Plenty of players on there I disagree with ratings. Fam, Baker, Taylor, Steele, Nikki, Rowe, Kalas all should be green in terms of playing value for what they offered during their time here. There is a definite negative bias in this from my point of view. There are plenty of players on this list that were exciting signings when they were made that the majority of the forum were excited and praising the club getting them to sign for us. Remember when we signed Tomlin, or Baker or Kalas, Dasilva and Palmer to name a few, all players we had seen play before that brought genuine optimism to pre-season. From what I can see It's the main man in the dugout that's been the root of our problems. The recruitment team have done an overall good job in the last 4 years with the players we have been able to tempt to the once 'Little Bristol City'. 

Surprised Kalas isn't green tbh, only scanned the list! All about opinions though.

Maenpaa was an unexpectedly excellent free transfer addition too- filled the boots of Fielding and was a little bit better in terms of distribution too- no real sell on value of course but for the here and now, don't think there was a lot wrong. Defence seemed to have quite a bit of confidence with him behind.

Rowe given he was just versatile and from League One- he has his limitations, isn't for the future and has little sell on value but I think he has surpassed expectations. Done well in fact.

[RedRock]

For SLs strategy to work we need to excel at transfer dealings and the production of talent from the Academy. 

We are, at best, rank average. At worst, pretty hopeless.

 

Well overdue for a Director of Football to come in and get a grip of things.

This position, once filled, would provide the continuity SL craves when the inevitable departures happen elsewhere in the hierarchy.

[cidercity1987]

If you're excluding the transfer fees received for Reid and Bryan etc then you would have to include the market values of the players currently here to show a true picture of performance

[CyderInACan]

35 minutes ago, spudski said:

Is there a correlation with certain agents being used?

Do we refuse to work with some agents?

Do we limit our pool of targets depending on what Agents we are willing to work with?

Does MA have 'preferred' working relationships? 

Sure I’ve seen that most signings come via one agency. Either on here or Twitter but can’t quite the Source. It does all, however, seem very cosy with MA’s brother-in-law (? Again, I think) Head of Recruitment?

[1960maaan]

Very interesting reading @Davefevs , I think I might have been a little more generous with some green blobs, but really makes you think.
Our recruitment has been generally poor. You would like to think they would review after every year, but if they had surely there would have been a shake up by now.

[Mr Popodopolous]

17 minutes ago, RedRock said:

For SLs strategy to work we need to excel at transfer dealings and the production of talent from the Academy. 

We are, at best, rank average. At worst, pretty hopeless.

 

Well overdue for a Director of Football to come in and get a grip of things.

This position, once filled, would provide the continuity SL craves when the inevitable departures happen elsewhere in the hierarchy.

Bit harsh I feel- think we're middling, so-so- neither great nor terrible- we certainly don't excel though.

Which as you say, we need to do in order to push on with this.

[Sir Geoff]

21 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Surprised Kalas isn't green tbh, only scanned the list! All about opinions though.

Maenpaa was an unexpectedly excellent free transfer addition too- filled the boots of Fielding and was a little bit better in terms of distribution too- no real sell on value of course but for the here and now, don't think there was a lot wrong. Defence seemed to have quite a bit of confidence with him behind.

Rowe given he was just versatile and from League One- he has his limitations, isn't for the future and has little sell on value but I think he has surpassed expectations. Done well in fact.

Do you honestly think we would make a profit on Kalas in the current market, if we sold him tomorrow. Good solid centre back but not for £7 million plus.

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Do you honestly think we would make a profit on Kalas in the current market, if we sold him tomorrow. Good solid centre back but not for £7 million plus.

I mean from a playing POV, not necessarily a profit one- unless I've misunderstood a bit.

I don't think he would be on the profit list in any case- though if we sold him tomorrow based on amortised fee, we would need in excess of £5m to turn a profit in accounting. How much have fees fallen due to Covid? If sold tomorrow without Covid, could we hit £5m plus?

[Sir Geoff]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I mean from a playing POV, not necessarily a profit one- unless I've misunderstood a bit.

what we paid and Current value according to DaveFevs

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, Sir Geoff said:

what we paid and Current value according to DaveFevs

Okay, I took it as value in terms of playing and then market value/Current Value.

I'd give green for playing side, probably red for saleable value.

[Sir Geoff]

I'm struggling to read the writing at the top of the columns even with my reading glasses on...but I think the red was for current value. Totally agree green for playing value.

[IAmNick]

Feels a bit mean to have players like Fam, Kalas, Baker, Hunt, and Rowe in the same "Playing value" bucket as ones like Massengo, Sessegnon, and Cotterill to me. Which of those two lists have made more contribution to the team on the pitch since being here?

The first load have played a lot for us over the last few years and been important parts of the team in my opinion. They'd probably all be green in the playing value for me - I accept they're perhaps mostly not top 6 material, but we haven't been a top 6 team. The second lot aren't top 6 players either (currently).

I also wouldn't put Afobe who played 12 games for us, Mawson who played 5 higher than Fam or Kalas. For me they're both, if we're taking it as a snapshot in time "now", poorer playing value - because they weren't able to or aren't able to play for the majority of their time here and haven't made much contribution as a result.

This is assuming "player value" is contribute on the pitch as individuals, and "financial/current value" is taking into account the fee paid.

For me the story is that Ashton has done a decent job recruiting players who are around the level we currently are, rather than ones who are above our level. The "hits" are also in general more experienced ones, rather than promising younger ones who we can develop and sell.

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

As for pedantism, “m” is correct, that is a decimal point not a comma!

Apologies, my eyesight isn’t all that it used to be!  

[Harry]

Let’s just call it “A collection of failures and a pocket-full of favours”.