Talent ID - The Comings & Goings - The Long List

[spudski]

33 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

Sure I’ve seen that most signings come via one agency. Either on here or Twitter but can’t quite the Source. It does all, however, seem very cosy with MA’s brother-in-law (? Again, I think) Head of Recruitment?

It's common place. Heads of recruitment and head scouts strike up working relationships. Some like to work with 'trusted' agents. Unfortunately a colourful agent can prejudice the quality of the signing if the relationship becomes too close.

There is also the financial rewards to consider.

[ciderwithtommy]

2 minutes ago, spudski said:

It's common place. Heads of recruitment and head scouts strike up working relationships. Some like to work with 'trusted' agents. Unfortunately a colourful agent can prejudice the quality of the signing if the relationship becomes too close.

There is also the financial rewards to consider.

Wassermans. We are very much #teamwass

[CyderInACan]

4 minutes ago, spudski said:

It's common place. Heads of recruitment and head scouts strike up working relationships. Some like to work with 'trusted' agents. Unfortunately a colourful agent can prejudice the quality of the signing if the relationship becomes too close.

There is also the financial rewards to consider.

A closed shop, if you will. 

[Dullmoan Tone]

1 hour ago, Shuffle said:

That’s why Paul Cook wasn’t entertained as he isn’t a yes man.

Appreciate off topic but is there any substance to this comment above or just your opinion?

[spudski]

2 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

A closed shop, if you will. 

And we have been before...Burke was notorious for it.

[Shuffle]

1 minute ago, Dullmoan Tone said:

Appreciate off topic but is there any substance to this comment above or just your opinion?

I’m certainly not ITK but read on here that he was interviewed but both sides weren’t interested from some seemingly well connected forum users.  Could be bull but no reason to doubt them but has been taken as true.  

[CyderInACan]

4 minutes ago, spudski said:

And we have been before...Burke was notorious for it.

That was then. Why do we restrict our potential talent pool? We’re not fishing in ponds and lakes, we’re only fishing in our mate’s paddling pool. It’s bollocks. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

A closed shop, if you will. 

 

5 minutes ago, spudski said:

And we have been before...Burke was notorious for it.

Seems rife in football tbh.

The old who you know vs what you know. Sometimes it works well though, sometimes...it doesn't!

[And Its Smith]

Harsh on Fam. Rest of it is pretty much spot on 

It’s a pitiful list and shows we are miles away off the pitch from where we need to be. 

Seems like peoples who’s job it is to spot players cannot do it 

[spudski]

11 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

 

Seems rife in football tbh.

The old who you know vs what you know. Sometimes it works well though, sometimes...it doesn't!

Not saying it happens now...but brown envelopes were all the rage.

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

Harsh on Fam. Rest of it is pretty much spot on 

It’s a pitiful list and shows we are miles away off the pitch from where we need to be. 

Seems like peoples who’s job it is to spot players cannot do it 

Is it though- how many had injuries as a notable factor for one?

Don't agree with the downgrade of Kalas permanent either, Maenpaa for a free was quite strong and Rowe has outperformed expectations- though unsure you'd give the last two a green.

[deadredfred]

Firstly, doesn’t 63 transfers in 4 years sound like a huge influx of players and player change?! That’s just shy of 6 whole football teams in 4 seasons?! 
 

It seems a huge turnover of players. Huge change and evidence of an unsettled system. Surely player recruitment should be about minor tweaks to enhance certain areas or provide strength in depth, not recruit a new 11 every window?

I don’t know how this compares to other championship teams. It may well be par for the course as it of course contains academy, U23 and ‘ones for the future’. (Perhaps I’ll see if I can compare to Brentford for example, who seem to be the blueprint of how to recruit, improve and sell talent every season yet remain consistent in their style and competitiveness.)

And secondly. You’ve been waaaaay too harsh on Rodri. I thought he was class 

[BCFCGav]

To play devils advocate, you could say that only 1 out of 10 need to come off in order for the system to work. Webo’s profit alone covers a big chunk of that lists ‘fees paid’. When you factor in that many of these names were brought in as ‘quick fix’ rather than ‘develop and sell’ (Wright, Niki, Martin, Wells) it doesn’t read quite so poorly. 
 

Also, maybe contentious this but I think Mags deserves two green blobs. Tidy defender who helped attacks with that throw, and 600k profit. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, deadredfred said:

Firstly, doesn’t 63 transfers in 4 years sound like a huge influx of players and player change?! That’s just shy of 6 whole football teams in 4 seasons?! 
 

It seems a huge turnover of players. Huge change and evidence of an unsettled system. Surely player recruitment should be about minor tweaks to enhance certain areas or provide strength in depth, not recruit a new 11 every window?

I don’t know how this compares to other championship teams. It may well be par for the course as it of course contains academy, U23 and ‘ones for the future’. (Perhaps I’ll see if I can compare to Brentford for example, who seem to be the blueprint of how to recruit, improve and sell talent every season yet remain consistent in their style and competitiveness.)

And secondly. You’ve been waaaaay too harsh on Rodri. I thought he was class 

Agreed- always thought it's too high personally. Some of the sales will be necessary for financial reasons but it's waaay too high surely.

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, sinenomine said:

Agree with this. Think there a some very harsh ratings on the playing value. 

I also think that it's difficult to consider playing value without taking into account the fee paid. For example, I was happy enough with Maenpaa's contributions in the context of him being a free signing, but maybe wouldn't have been so satisfied if we'd paid a fee for him whereas I am particularly unhappy with Wells' contributions in the context of him costing us a fat wedge. 

I’ve tried to base playing value on have they done well in terms of being a top half championship player.  Red = not really, amber = yes, green = better than that.  I’ve tried to do it fairly, but accept there will be differences in opinion.

Amber is not bad.

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Interesting stuff @Davefevs

Very high turnover, churn of players which cannot help financially or cohesion wise- accept some is necessary for financial reasons!

I still think our recruitment has been middling from a general POV, financially not so good.

In terms of sell on value, I'd suggest the following would have been hoped for- hopes don't always materialise of course but hoped for...looking at age, ceiling etc. Of the current squad and excluding those we've signed on loan- and loaned out:

1. Bentley agree, hence he got two blobs
2. Moore do you think we’d get a sizeable financial profit on him in current market?  If you think using current market is unfair....then I’d say using numbers from an inflationary market is unfair too.  I’ve tried to be balanced.
3. DaSilva do you think we’d recoup much more than we spent currently.  I love Dasilva, hence green blob for playing value.
4. Walsh he’s out of contract in June
5. Williams I gave him a green blob for future value
6. Bakinson he’s a double green
7. Massengo as it stands I think it’s unsure whether we’d recoup
8. Semenyo didn’t add him as I thought he was more an Academy recruit than a 1st team recruit (MA / LJ

Add Palmer, loaned out. Jonny Smith too?

I missed Jonny, will add him in, but he’d be an amber playing / green value.

Just had a look and we signed him from Wrexham- assumed he was academy.

Could make a case for one or two more, but once they get past say 25, 26- how much are they going to increase in value? Goalkeepers aside!

....and therefore what is the strategy?

Comments embedded below.

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Quick q also @Davefevs

How many players that you had marked down as failing had injury as a key feature of their time here? On the playing side, not the monetary side I mean.

Having a quick scan of that list- Hegeler, O'Neil, Djuric are 3. Arguably Walsh and Watkins another 2- mitigating factor, potentially.

I factored that in as best I could.  E.g. Kalas green blob on loan, amber blob since permanent because of injury.

2 hours ago, Furious Custard said:

The list only paints one half of the picture in terms of recruitment. Its not representative of who or what was available at the market at the time. This season we reportedly beat out some bigger names for the likes of Sessegnon, Mawson and Williams. it also doesn't take into account the ones that got away (not Moteab") that were available but outside of our wage structure or not interested in life down south.

I can only judge on the deals Mark Ashton’s team got over the line.

Plenty of players on there I disagree with ratings. Fam, Baker, Taylor, Steele, Nikki, Rowe, Kalas all should be green in terms of playing value for what they offered during their time here.

As my earlier response amber is not bad it’s a level of expectation for the level we are playing at.  Rowe was a tough one, and I’m fine with everyone’s opinion.  Also as above I’ve taken injuries  into account asa far as possible.  Luke Steele met expectations, no more no less for example - that’s amber, not green.

There is a definite negative bias in this from my point of view. There are plenty of players on this list that were exciting signings when they were made that the majority of the forum were excited and praising the club getting them to sign for us.

OTIB aren’t professional recruiters, it makes no difference how excited we are...it’s how they performed.  And it’s right to critique performance not excitement.  Otherwise we might as well keep signing Lee Tomlin.

Remember when we signed Tomlin, or Baker or Kalas, Dasilva and Palmer to name a few, all players we had seen play before that brought genuine optimism to pre-season. From what I can see It's the main man in the dugout that's been the root of our problems.

I agree to a large extent.  At what point does the recruitment professional say “you can’t have another exciting player because you didn’t play the one before”?  As I’ve posted elsewhere I think they messaged each other’s egos and whims.  And what what SL and JL doing in their oversight?

The recruitment team have done an overall good job in the last 4 years with the players we have been able to tempt to the once 'Little Bristol City'.

in your opinion....that’s fine.  In my opinion they’ve wasted tens of millions of pounds.  But happy to debate.

 

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Surprised Kalas isn't green tbh, only scanned the list! All about opinions though.

Kalas was green during loan...has he been green in the last 18 months.

Maenpaa was an unexpectedly excellent free transfer addition too- filled the boots of Fielding and was a little bit better in terms of distribution too- no real sell on value of course but for the here and now, don't think there was a lot wrong. Defence seemed to have quite a bit of confidence with him behind.

injuries stopped him being green.  Loved Niki when playing.

Rowe given he was just versatile and from League One- he has his limitations, isn't for the future and has little sell on value but I think he has surpassed expectations. Done well in fact.

again, people getting hooked up with expectations of the player not the level.  We are trying to recruit to a level to have a go at getting promoted....at least I hope we are.  Love Tommy Rowe, but this is about critiquing the recruitment team in terms of building a playing squad capable of getting into the playoffs.

 

2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

If you're excluding the transfer fees received for Reid and Bryan etc then you would have to include the market values of the players currently here to show a true picture of performance

That’s what the 3rd column of blobs is representing.

But based on today / current market conditions, heres my view on each based on if we tried to sell them this window:

Moore - £500k

O’Dowda - £1.5m

Paterson - £0 (injured, OOC)

Diedhiou - £2m (OOC)

Baker - £0 (injured, OOC, high wage)

Liam Walsh - £500k (injured, OOC)

Bakinson - £3m

Weimann - £500k (injured, year option)

Adelakun - £300k (year option)

Hunt - £250k (OOC)

Watkins - £0 (injured, OOC)

Rowe - £0 (OOC)

Gilmartin - £0 (OOC)

Kalas - £4m

Massengo - £2m

Wells - £2m

Palmer - £1m (wages)

Dasilva - £2.5m

Bentley - £5m

Nagy - £2m

Cundy - £100k (year option)

Martin - £1m (age)

j.Williams - £5m

Total £33.150m

Is that great against the strategy?

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, deadredfred said:

Firstly, doesn’t 63 transfers in 4 years sound like a huge influx of players and player change?! That’s just shy of 6 whole football teams in 4 seasons?! 
 

It seems a huge turnover of players. Huge change and evidence of an unsettled system. Surely player recruitment should be about minor tweaks to enhance certain areas or provide strength in depth, not recruit a new 11 every window?

I don’t know how this compares to other championship teams. It may well be par for the course as it of course contains academy, U23 and ‘ones for the future’. (Perhaps I’ll see if I can compare to Brentford for example, who seem to be the blueprint of how to recruit, improve and sell talent every season yet remain consistent in their style and competitiveness.)

And secondly. You’ve been waaaaay too harsh on Rodri. I thought he was class 

I thought Rodri was good too, but the head-coach never played him.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

Harsh on Fam. Rest of it is pretty much spot on 

It’s a pitiful list and shows we are miles away off the pitch from where we need to be. 

Seems like peoples who’s job it is to spot players cannot do it 

That’s the thrust of this thread.....we are expecting professionals to do a skilled job.  This isn’t OTIB doing the recruiting but team specifically employed to do this and giving an impression of how skilled they are.

[IAmNick]

3 hours ago, ciderwithtommy said:

Wassermans. We are very much #teamwass

Are we?!

 

All this Wasserman talk... Where's it come from? It seems to be becoming gospel at the moment.

Transfermarkt have 26 players of ours listed here  https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/bristol-city/berateruebersicht/verein/698 and 5 are from Wasserman (now Brunt is gone). A few don't have an agent listed.

The Wasserman ones are:

Weimann, O'Dowda, Williams, Walsh, and Vyner. So one from this year (two if you include Brunt), two from a couple of years ago, and two who have been here a while.

So that's about 20% from THE largest football agency in terms of players registered AND market value (https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/berater/beraterfirmenuebersicht/berater). What's the conspiracy exactly? Am I missing something?

[Sheltons Army]

Just now, IAmNick said:

Are we?!

 

All this Wasserman talk... Where's it come from? It seems to be becoming gospel at the moment.

Transfermarkt have 27 players of ours listed here  https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/bristol-city/berateruebersicht/verein/698 and 5 are from Wasserman (now Brunt is gone). A few don't have an agent listed.

The Wasserman ones are:

Weimann, O'Dowda, Williams, Walsh, and Vyner. So one from this year (two if you include Brunt), two from a couple of years ago, and two who have been here a while.

What's the conspiracy exactly? Am I missing something?

Agree

although Mark Ashton’s work has , rightly come under scrutiny ,

 

if you believe some , he started The Guy Fawkes Plot , WW2 , 9/11 and CoVid

Some of the allegations if untrue , border on , if not cross , the libel line

 

 

 

[johnwilkinson]

Freddie Hinds ?

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, johnwilkinson said:

Freddie Hinds ?

Will add him in tomorrow.

[Lrrr]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I’ve tried to base playing value on have they done well in terms of being a top half championship player.  Red = not really, amber = yes, green = better than that.  I’ve tried to do it fairly, but accept there will be differences in opinion.

Amber is not bad.

Comments embedded below.

I factored that in as best I could.  E.g. Kalas green blob on loan, amber blob since permanent because of injury.

 

 

That’s what the 3rd column of blobs is representing.

But based on today / current market conditions, heres my view on each based on if we tried to sell them this window:

Moore - £500k

O’Dowda - £1.5m

Paterson - £0 (injured, OOC)

Diedhiou - £2m (OOC)

Baker - £0 (injured, OOC, high wage)

Liam Walsh - £500k (injured, OOC)

Bakinson - £3m

Weimann - £500k (injured, year option)

Adelakun - £300k (year option)

Hunt - £250k (OOC)

Watkins - £0 (injured, OOC)

Rowe - £0 (OOC)

Gilmartin - £0 (OOC)

Kalas - £4m

Massengo - £2m

Wells - £2m

Palmer - £1m (wages)

Dasilva - £2.5m

Bentley - £5m

Nagy - £2m

Cundy - £100k (year option)

Martin - £1m (age)

j.Williams - £5m

Total £33.150m

Is that great against the strategy?

Somewhat potentially harsh comparison of what they’re worth now vs what they cost as some of the values would have shrunk in Covid pricing vs what we paid for them outside Covid. Ie Nagy and Dasilva still being profit despite Covid pricing would probably be a good thing but marked amber on your list. Non Covid we’d have been adding a couple mil to each at least. 

[WolfOfWestStreet]

Didn't johnson already have the SP on Brownhill from his time @ barnsley? So really in the 60+ transfers we've made under Ashton we've hit on 1 (Webster)?

Ffs 

[CyderInACan]

5 hours ago, WolfOfWestStreet said:

Didn't johnson already have the SP on Brownhill from his time @ barnsley? So really in the 60+ transfers we've made under Ashton we've hit on 1 (Webster)?

Ffs 

Yep - Brownhill was LJ's "project" - and it worked 

[Davefevs]

7 hours ago, Lrrr said:

Somewhat potentially harsh comparison of what they’re worth now vs what they cost as some of the values would have shrunk in Covid pricing vs what we paid for them outside Covid. Ie Nagy and Dasilva still being profit despite Covid pricing would probably be a good thing but marked amber on your list. Non Covid we’d have been adding a couple mil to each at least. 

Yep, you could argue that.

I would expect a professional recruitment team to have risk mitigation strategies in place.  It’s no point sitting here today and saying “ignore FFP, it’s not our fault Dasilva is now worth less, it’s Covid’s fault”.  It’s not like we haven’t had declining markets in the past, e.g. OnDigital.

As Dasilva has a green and amber blob, that’s still an above average recruitment.

I think people are taking lack of green to be bad....amber is ok....red is not though.  I just wanted a simple method to highlight it.  Overall, it average out just worse than amber across playing and financial.  So a few changed blobs here or there are fine.  That probably makes it average (amber) overall.  Is that good enough for a recruitment team under MA lauded as being really good?

As I’ve said often enough the money MA has generated in sales is great, although we will see how he does in a Covid affected market.  Overall, imho, we’ve not spent the money affectively.  That’s borne out in league position vs target, and also the financial accounts vs strategy.

[ciderwithtommy]

10 hours ago, IAmNick said:

Are we?!

 

All this Wasserman talk... Where's it come from? It seems to be becoming gospel at the moment.

Transfermarkt have 26 players of ours listed here  https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/bristol-city/berateruebersicht/verein/698 and 5 are from Wasserman (now Brunt is gone). A few don't have an agent listed.

The Wasserman ones are:

Weimann, O'Dowda, Williams, Walsh, and Vyner. So one from this year (two if you include Brunt), two from a couple of years ago, and two who have been here a while.

So that's about 20% from THE largest football agency in terms of players registered AND market value (https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/berater/beraterfirmenuebersicht/berater). What's the conspiracy exactly? Am I missing something?

Worth noting wassermans do far more than pure agency work as such. Their reach is way beyond that. 
 

 

[Alessandro]

9 minutes ago, RalphMilnesLeftFoot said:

 

Bit confused by this tbh.  Was the idea here to show that the club has been wasteful? (Covid has decimated transfer fees and value) or was it to try and assign value to players in somekind of attempt to show potential, again Covid has totally wrecked the market.

Under non Pandemic conditions, fees would have continued to rise and the potential for fees received would have therefore become greatly increased

Also the stats do not show amortisation either, so wouldnt some of those 'losses' not actually be losses and work out as being profitable under that system?

Finally league position would also determine fees as well, so if we did playoffs and gawd forbid some how got promotion these figures would change again.

It seems like an unsubtle dig at MA/The Board etc, which is rapidly becoming derigeur and also reduces the players to pure stats, ala Football Manager/ Champ, which personally I find as cold as anything.

However that's just my two penneth worth.

 

Putting the debate of @Davefevs’s lights system aside, which is just his way of doing things....for me it boils down to a few simple points.

SL’s stated aim is promotion and key to that is the strategy of MA and his team finding and developing talent, either to improve the team to get there or to sell on and re-invest.

On that front, Dave’s list reveals our talent ID is nowhere near up to standard. 
 

1) Over 60 signings and only 2 have been players MA has bought and sold on for a major profit.

2) When you look at the current squad - which of those 60 signings now look like a) players we can sell on for a major profit (2 or 3) b) players who can get us to the next level (3 or 4)

3) From a simple profit and loss on transfers, we’re looking in the red.

4) We’re relying too much on the academy to produce a gem, which it looks at least a 2 years off doing.
 

This for me isn’t about scoring points on OTIB or having a go, this is about the core of what is vital to the clubs future success - at that very least the questions should be asked, because this evidence is not great reading.

 

 

[The Journalist]

15 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

So the two best signings thus far have basically been LJ picks (Brownhill and Webster)!!

With that monetary deficit, which would have been even worse were it not for the profit made on those two players, there is a pretty big question mark over MA's head. 

Did Johnson not also personally identify Eliasson (albeit through data originally)? I still maintain if coached and managed properly - and a lot of that is obviously Johnson's responsibility - we could've fetched a substantial profit on him.

None of it reflects brilliantly on Ashton, does it?

[Kid in the Riot]

7 hours ago, WolfOfWestStreet said:

Didn't johnson already have the SP on Brownhill from his time @ barnsley? So really in the 60+ transfers we've made under Ashton we've hit on 1 (Webster)?

Ffs 

LJ only agreed to the sale of Flint if he got Webster in return, so Ashton has in fact hit on 0 emphatic successes. 

[Buster Footman's T shirt]

Really good thread. Not read all the replies. Agree with most. Not sure about Afobe being a green blob for playing when majority injured. Also think that Rowe should be green for playing value. Obviously no pre-sale value but would argue that he has been the best value/most consistent/most surprising signing in last couple of years and we have certainly had our money's worth from him