Informative Sky Commentary

[Davefevs]

26 minutes ago, Clutton Caveman said:

Problem is, which of our players would attract a decent fee at the moment.

Not many, not enough to cover the costs!

For me it is impossible to run a Championship club in a commercially normal way.

yep, it’s a different beast, but there are fundamentals that apply too.

Ignoring covid, we get fairly good gates for the championship, we maximise income from the stadium by playing both Rugby and Football, I think at the bars etc we create good revenue and also from the sports bar.

we do indeed....thank god we do

Overall we should be one of the better clubs in the league with regards to profit. However football is not a normal business. Players wages and conditions have been allowed to spiral past all reality caused by clubs chasing the dream.

My challenge back is why are other clubs equally as competitive as us doing it on a fraction of the budget.  Millwall....£18m costs, us £62m!

Parachute payments further distort the picture. The Bosman ruling has also had its effect. So any owner of a championship club can only remain an owner if he treats this activity as a hobby and writes a big cheque each year.

I disagree, we’ve shown that through good recruitment / academy development (SOD and Cotts and Burt and Academy guys) you can actually run with a profit.

So long as there are people prepared to write the cheques the madness will continue. For me a salary cap and far tougher home grown player rules are needed.

that to me is putting it back to football itself.....we are in control of our destiny, although we are out of control at the mo’.  We can’t wait for football to solve our problems.

 I think the only model that perhaps could bring a breakeven is Bristol City at the top of league 1 playing great football and having a cup run. Crowds would be similar but wages would be far lower. For me I have seen our great club in the top flight once and frankly I don't realistically expect to see it again. I just want to turn up each second week, enjoy a beer and a pie with friend then sit down and be excited and entertained. Frankly if that has to be in league 1 so be it. At least we would get 2 Bristol derbys per year.

I think we are wasteful.  We have income levels right up there if you exclude the PP clubs, so we are top 10 Champ.  Ambition needs to be matched with more critical analysis of all the cogs in the wheel to identify the root causes....all the way down to the tea person.

Comments  above....

[RedM]

2 hours ago, marcofisher said:

All very good points, and hard to argue with. 
 

I suppose at one point we had a side capable of pressing high up the pitch and playing nice football. We may have lost players such as Reid who was the epitome of that style but we also recruited Weimann who very much fitted in with that style. We still had players such as Paterson, Brownhill from that 2017/2018 season, brought in technical players such as Webster and brought through other technical players such as Eliasson and Kelly.

So while I agree with all your points, there is one exception. For all the nonsense LJ gave us in 5 years, there was one point where there was a play style and a direction. As soon as it was seen that these players such as Weimann and Webster were brought in to fit a certain play style but we were veering towards something else entirely, we should have brought in a manager who would have favoured the high pressing style that we saw in that 2017/2018 season. Yet we stuck with LJ because he could set a team up pragmatically and nick enough results to keep us within a stones throw of the playoffs despite completely reneging on the way we played in that 2017/2018 season, which everyone enjoyed and wanted to see more of and worked until the team burnt out. This resulted in us seeing absolute dross. 
 

We should have been brave when this change starting occurring and gone for a manager who could replicate the play style seen in that 2017/2018 season when many of the same players were still with us or, in the case of Flint to Webster, had been upgraded. 
 

 

A lot of what you mention has made me think that was the peak of our recent existence, that was as good as it was going to get. That was the high and I feel now we are at best levelling out or at worse on a downward spiral. 

[Cidre Monita]

There are a long list of examples, but to understand why I completely disagree with the club policy , and mismanagement you just have to look at the signing of Wells. On the surface, a goal scorer and pretty able at Championship level. But putting 5.5 M into a near 30 year old who has no chance of ever being a Prem player or of having a strong upsell or residual transfer fee is exactly the sort of nonsense we used to do. We claim we no longer do it , but we did and we do. The impact of that signing on wage bill and bottom line accounts is devastating. It is a big financial hole. If that was the only issue , but it is not. We also have another 5.5 m striker who is running down his contract. On top of that, Chris Martin, at the end of his career. Why are all those 3 an issue ? Because they are not gong to generate any positive income (our income is TV, matchday..., and transfers) Transfers being the prime source. So if you have no prime strikers, with £11m sunk and lost, your chances of being able to afford a replacement are (under FFP and Covid) practically zero. You have lost the opportunity and damaged your ability to create future income. The only way, and it is the onl way, you can get yourself out of that mess, is to have a replacement in the academy. So you have to have an authentic and consistent strategy, or you will fail . You cannot dip in and out of buying to develop and driving an academy project. That we do not have a top tier academy (that is outside FFP) seems to go unanswered. it is the one area the owner can spend all he wants, he could make it the best in England if he wanted to, but the one area there are no constraints, we have constraints. It is also an area where we have had success, Bryan, Reid, Kelly, so we know it can work.  Or you really make yourself the best at developing and selling which means you have to sign players within a certain profile. Two great examples of doing this consistently are Posh and Brentford. But to do that, you have to have an extraordinary scouting and talent identification setup. We don't have that. 

This is another example of the club saying one thing and doing another. Not selling our top striker to a rival, 5 pillars, bringing in a new coach to take us to the next level, there are many . It is not the lack of Prem football that is the issue here. Indeed , is there any thread on here talking about prem football ? The only person that keeps talking about Prem football is the owner and CEO. I strongly believe the fans want something more tangible. It surely is not much to ask to have a playing approach that is enjoyable, that a shot on goal is celebrated as much as a goal these days. To see a genuine attempt at developing a club philosophy and realistic approach to being a solid Championship side with a clear strategy . Because when you have that, you can make incremental progression , but with a solid foundation. Then and only then, if you got anywhere near the Prem, the club is able to sustain the progress. With some level of coherence and professional ability. 

If the club is to ever make the progress the owner keeps talking about, he first of all has to look at how he is running the club and who he entrusts with that approach. If he is unable to make a stark self evaluation, a critical appraisal then we will continue the charade, and continue to see may other clubs reach the Prem and we will keep looking over the wall at them. You would shudder to see our current squad in the Prem, that is how far we have fallen away. But forget the Prem, there are many other more pressing issues to resolve first. Facing up to reality is not doom and gloom, it is how you become better and stronger. You can carry on with the BS all you want, but it will catch up with you. It is catching up with us. But it all starts with the owner. It is not about spending more money, in fact we should not have spent what we did, it is about creating a genuine strategy and applying it, and employing the best people you can to deploy it. We are so far removed from that, and it is where it really hurts. We have the resources, but the deployment is nowhere near at the required level. 

 

[Davefevs]

@Psychopomppretty much what I’ve been fearing for 2 years.  As for “catching up with us”, I think it already had.

Posters have laughed when I talked about being wary of an inflationary transfer market, well, it’s come home to roost now.  It hid a lot of stuff.

[Nogbad the Bad]

1 hour ago, Clutton Caveman said:

 I think the only model that perhaps could bring a breakeven is Bristol City at the top of league 1 playing great football and having a cup run. Crowds would be similar but wages would be far lower. For me I have seen our great club in the top flight once and frankly I don't realistically expect to see it again. I just want to turn up each second week, enjoy a beer and a pie with friend then sit down and be excited and entertained. Frankly if that has to be in league 1 so be it. At least we would get 2 Bristol derbys per year.

Couldn't agree more CC, in fact have said very similar in a different thread before reading this one!

[Cidre Monita]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@Psychopomppretty much what I’ve been fearing for 2 years.  As for “catching up with us”, I think it already had.

Posters have laughed when I talked about being wary of an inflationary transfer market, well, it’s come home to roost now.  It hid a lot of stuff.

It certainly did , and you are right. I was baffled at how we used the Kodja fee, it should have been spent keeping Reid and Bryan at the club for a few more years, and it would have done for the value of the  Engval fee. In the end the wasted Kodja money meant we needed to sell the players the club needed to grow with us. (they would have moved on, but both would have signed a better deal) . The red flag went up when we spent a record fee and wages on a centre back. Not a forward, a centre back. A good player, not a Prem player, and you needed that to have an upside (Kelly and Webster) . Without it , and it was clear it was not there, it was the start of sunken money, the old cycle. You can go on. We were signing Wells, Brentford Toney. We have turned a striker into a winger and he has stopped scoring goals , and halved his value in a year. Arsenal are looking at Toney for the summer. Says it all. But now we are in deep difficulty, as we have no great assets to sell, in a deflated ,market. We will have to decimate the squad as the 30M plus wages cannot be sustained.   This summer is not going to be pretty . We have been here before not so long ago. 

[Finley_Smith10]

For those who don’t have sky or didn’t watch the game. What Ashton apparently told the commentators yesterday 

[Lorenzos Only Goal]

17 hours ago, TomThumb84 said:

Now, I may have missed these two bits of info in press conferences, communication from the club through the official sources and local media, but;

Did the Sky commentator say he interviewed Mark Ashton before the game and was able to inform the watching national audience that Diedhiou will be allowed to run down his contract AND we are hoping to bring in a loan player before the end of the window?

Surely our media shy CEO would not use Sky as the medium for this info to us?

Was that common knowledge before tonight?

No you heard the Mark Ashton has said an offer is on the table for him, and they were speculating we would let him run down his contract, and praising us for keeping him in the fold. 

[PhilC]

And for those who haven't seen the existing thread on this topic? 

[TomThumb84]

9 minutes ago, Lorenzos Only Goal said:

No you heard the Mark Ashton has said an offer is on the table for him, and they were speculating we would let him run down his contract, and praising us for keeping him in the fold. 

I thought I heard him categorically say that we would run down his contract if he did not sign. Cannot remember it being “speculation”. In fact I think the commentator quoted Mark Ashton as saying that had come “direct from the top”.

The reason for which is that Fams “value on the pitch for the rest of the season” is worth it.

[EstoniaTallinnRed]

14 hours ago, Curr Avon said:

Please can we talk about tables instead? I like looking at furniture.

And probably more exciting watching furniture at IKEA than City atm!

 

 

[Davefevs]

Right at the end re the loan bit.

 

[And Its Smith]

I’m a bit surprised at how angry people are about this.  News has come out via sky instead of Gregor. Can’t see a massive difference really. If Gregor had got the scoop nobody would be angry 

[TomThumb84]

5 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

I’m a bit surprised at how angry people are about this.  News has come out via sky instead of Gregor. Can’t see a massive difference really. If Gregor had got the scoop nobody would be angry 

I think it may be because there has been pretty much radio silence from Mark Ashton especially around transfers and contract situations, and also Dean Holden is a pretty blank canvass with all of the topics and also injury list progress.

To then choose to release more info across 90 minutes than for weeks before, through the medium of a national broadcasting commentator, rather than through numerous direct questions in press conferences from our local reporter is pretty unusual and raises questions around how the club communicates.

I think it certainly deserves a bit of analysis.

[Sheltons Army]

16 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

I’m a bit surprised at how angry people are about this.  News has come out via sky instead of Gregor. Can’t see a massive difference really. If Gregor had got the scoop nobody would be angry 

That’s only part of it

The complete opposite answers from Ashton and Holden are what alarms me

Either one is a liar or left hand hasnt a clue what right hand is up to

Thats more the point for me

[Peter1450]

Nothing to worry about the situations"fluid".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BTRFTG]

As a procurement specialist I think Ashton is as lacking in quality as the vast majority of trash he's managed to assemble over the years.

That said many hereabouts seem oblivious to the facts:

By virtue of the fact the club has made offers it is NOT letting Fam go, his contract's up in the summer and he's free to do as he so wishes including signing a pre-contract with another club NOW;

The club made Fam offers none of which has yet been accepted. Why we don't (or shouldn't) know;

We might speculate Fam thinks he's worth more than City are prepared to offer (if he's right he'll go,) or that another club has offered him more (in which case why wouldn't he have signed a pre-contract already,) or maybe he did have something lined up conditional on him leaving now (which is not in his gift and City may leverage that fact,) or most likely he's chancing his arm (come summer there will be lots of discounted talent out there and with clubs in a perilous financial state wages and transfers outside the upper Prem are likely to diminish.) Both Orr and Basso can speak at length about what happens when that risk materialises.

In Fam's case the nearer the summer deadline the greater the risk he'll be found surplus to requirement, the previous offers elsewhere disappear, or he's subject to offers only from places he rather avoid, else find himself unemployed. He may even sign for City on reduced terms to that previously offered.

In the club's case we can't force the player's arm, only improve offers within what it considers reasonable in reference to his value in the market come summer.

We clearly aren't going up and probably just have enough to stay up, but to be competitive we do need a fire sale to dispose of the mountain of dross Ashton's accumulated.

The true value of any 'lost' income should Fam go for nothing in the summer is DISCOUNTED by the liability incurred of any replacement brought in now & with the real possibility Wells and Semenyo will not find the back of the net until season end we WOULD be forced to recruit.

Look at the utter waste of money and space we've brought in to fill that exact role of late. The likes of Engvald, millions on contract costs on a bloke who'd struggle on The Downs. We've a squad the size we have because Ashton's previously panicked, acquired crap as a short stop, then later realised they were so poor one can't give them away.

So hanging on to Fam until the summer, by which time we've hopefully sussed the huge mistakes we've made in buying expensive rubbish, plus realised the kids we'd hoped might make it clearly never will thus necessitating a clearance, makes perfect sense should he not wish to commit.

It's poker; our problem in Ashton and his recruits is we've been dealt multiple busted flushes.

 

[steveybadger]

8 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

That’s only part of it

The complete opposite answers from Ashton and Holden are what alarms me

Either one is a liar or left hand hasnt a clue what right hand is up to

Thats more the point for me

I know there’s a lot of Ashton bashing at the mo but I’m beginning to think that DH is sometimes economical with the truth. There’s been numerous times this season he’s said things around injuries / contracts which appear to have subsequently proved inaccurate e.g.  Williams / Walsh / Baker will be back January, Famny and Walsh are close to extensions. This and his increasingly prickly responses to questions (esp fromGregor) makes me wonder if doesn’t like giving things away for whatever reason (alerting opponents / buyers)?

Just an impression really, who knows?

[exAtyeoMax]

12 minutes ago, Peter1450 said:

Nothing to worry about the situations"fluid".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

yes, like our passing…

[tin]

16 minutes ago, Peter1450 said:

Nothing to worry about the situations "fluid".

And that's exactly the sort of shit you'd expect to hear coming out of Ashton's mouth. 

[Lorenzos Only Goal]

3 hours ago, TomThumb84 said:

I thought I heard him categorically say that we would run down his contract if he did not sign. Cannot remember it being “speculation”. In fact I think the commentator quoted Mark Ashton as saying that had come “direct from the top”.

The reason for which is that Fams “value on the pitch for the rest of the season” is worth it.

 

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Right at the end re the loan bit.

 

Would appear you are correct, either way I think its a better way of dealing with it than freezing players out.

[Harry]

6 hours ago, IAmNick said:

I actually think the plan was kind of working for a brief period. We had improved under Lee for a couple of years, our stock was the highest it's been for a long time, we had some great young players - who we knew would either play for us or get us some fat stacks of cash we could reinvest.

I can't help feeling that after the 2017/18 season a really ambitious club would have recognised the above, booted Lee after the disastrous second half of the season, and appointed a quality managed backed up by the considerable money we had at our disposal then to push on for the next couple of years. That was our window I think, things were kind of aligning - by luck more than judgement I'm starting to think, but they were. That was our chance to really push on.

Instead we stuck with what we had, and have regressed until now where it does feel a bit like we're teetering on a knife edge. The stars are no longer in alignment, and we're back to wondering what's going on exactly. A massive missed opportunity... and maybe not the first time. Could you look back and relate it to Gary leaving perhaps too late after the playoff final defeat, and subsequent mismatched team of youngsters, dodgy loans and old pros on a fair wedge with little impact... and a superstar goalkeeper in Heaton keeping us afloat?

Hindsight eh?

 

5 hours ago, Sheltons Army said:

Agree - Then you recruit cover for those positions , and why recruitment should be aligned with Playing ethos 

I wasn’t convinced Pack and Josh were flogged during our hot spell under LJ - Remember Marlon had Korey buzzing around him and Josh was playing rhs of midfield and we moved up and down the pitch as a unit - we wernt chasing shadows 

Later in LJs tenure maybe 

We recruited Walsh in the January at the time of that ‘hot spell’ , but then didn’t fancy him

Also Diony and Kent - where did they ever fit into the plan ?

We have a large squad , so in theory depth , but for what playing plan and of what quality ?

Assuming DH is still in post in the summer we need to have a very specific idea / plan and recruit to that specific plan , and do so very well , to even stay where we are , or have been in last couple of seasons IMHO

 
A massive crossroads for us which will be headed by Mark Ashton and Dean Holden 

Id like to say I have every confidence...............but....

 

It's pretty obvious to me that our gradual decline is down to our recruitment.

Let's look at our squad pre-Ashton and now under Ashton.

When we came up, we had a young and inexperienced squad.  They took a little while to 'bed-in' to Championship level, but pretty much all of them have now more than established themselves at this level (and some above).

After Ashton arrived, the following players remained for the start of the 16/17 season (and thus were signed by previous managers or were academy) League appearances that season in brackets :
Fielding (27), Little (28), Bryan (44), Flint (46), Smith (23), Reid (30), Wilbs (31), Pack (42), Vyner (1), Ayling (1)

That's 8 players who made up the bulk of the team that season.  A season in which they gradually improved and became more experienced at this level.

The next season, 17/18, the following were left from 'pre-Ashton' recruitment :
Fielding (43), Bryan (43), Flint (39), Smith (45), Reid (46), Pack (42), Vyner (1)

That's still 6 players who made up the majority of the team, and we had arguably the best season at this level so far.

The next season, 18/19, we are left with the following 'pre-Ashton' recruitment :
Fielding (7), Smith (6), Pack (46), Bryan (2), Vyner (0)

So, pretty much just 1 regular player from pre-Ashton recruitment.  It was this season where things started to fall apart, with a lack of game-plan, a lack of quality, a lack of entertainment.  Is it starting to click as to what's going on......?

Then onto 19/20, we now had the following :
Smith (22), Pack (1), Vyner (8)

No key players from pre-Ashton. Caveated partly here with Smith playing injured before a post-pandemic comeback and Vyner just a post-pandemic loan return.
Now, it was this season which saw turgid football and a total disenfranchisement of the fanbase.

Onto this season, and all that's left from 'pre-Ashton' is Vyner.  

 

It's quite clear that you can see a gradual decline in performance goes in tandem with the gradual break up of the 'pre-Ashton' players.  The recruitment has been awful.  We now have an inferior team to that which we had pre-Ashton.  Yet they're being paid nearly twice as much!!!

The promotion team needed time to find their feet at this level and then to have gradual enhancements made, with young recruits added as future replacements to slowly be integrated (i.e. sign a 19 year old Smith replacement, allow Smith to play to his prime, and then introduce his replacement.

Instead our recruitment has gone backwards, with no future-planning.  6 of our last 7 permanent signings are over the age of 30!!  We are no longer making the two types of signings that any good club should make - 1) Youngsters for future-planning and 2) Players in their early-mid 20's who can slot in and perform now.  We are now making panic signings to try to bring in 'experience', which is the exact thing those 'pre-Ashton' signings should have been kept, as they would now be those 'experienced' players, with your next batch coming through.

This is all on 1 person.  The person who is in charge of recruitment.  Sod, Cotterill & Burt get credit for putting that 'pre-Ashton'  squad together.  As soon as Ashton took over, it slowly but surely worsened.
Actually - it's down to 2 people.  Ashton is in charge of recruitment.  But Lansdown put him there and allowed him to have that control.

We have been going backwards for 5 years now under Ashton - 2 years were good, but were 'hidden' by the previous regime's recruitment.  Until he leaves this club, we will gradually be in decline.  I think we're ok this year (just about), but if he's in charge next season, I fear we will go down.  As others have said, it's an eerily similar feeling to our last relegation - a gradual worsening in recruitment, older players being signed on high contracts, no planning for the future.  He runs a hit and hope recruitment policy with no plan.  He has to go, or we will not turn this decline around.

[Davefevs]

Brill post @Harry, a slightly different angle on the gradual replacement of the Pre-Ashton era players.  Even those who didn’t go on to better things, e.g. Derrick Williams has still had a decent career at this level at Blackburn.

[Harry]

40 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Brill post @Harry, a slightly different angle on the gradual replacement of the Pre-Ashton era players.  Even those who didn’t go on to better things, e.g. Derrick Williams has still had a decent career at this level at Blackburn.

I know we wouldn’t have been able to keep them all, but if we had Flint/Williams/Ayling/Bryan at the back with Smith/Pack Cm and Bobby up front, with a sprinkling of early-mid 20’s players whom we’d brought in 4/5 years ago and gradually integrated in the last few years, we’d be in a far far better position now. 

As said, unrealistic to expect to have kept all of those, but with the right planning and targeted recruitment, we could easily still have a few of those here, now being the ‘experienced’ guys, with the next batch coming in. And we’d have saved a fortune! 
 

You almost need a mix of recruitment styles operated by other clubs. The same clubs get mentioned all the time, but what you need is a mix of a Peterborough/Brentford model, where you are bringing in players of future value and importance, but also a bit of Sheff Utd, who bring in the mid-twenties, plug and play types. 
It has to be a mix of both. Ours under Ashton has been scattergun and thoughtless (and dare I say it, but a nice little earner for all involved!) 

[Davefevs]

17 minutes ago, Harry said:

I know we wouldn’t have been able to keep them all, but if we had Flint/Williams/Ayling/Bryan at the back with Smith/Pack Cm and Bobby up front, with a sprinkling of early-mid 20’s players whom we’d brought in 4/5 years ago and gradually integrated in the last few years, we’d be in a far far better position now. 

As said, unrealistic to expect to have kept all of those, but with the right planning and targeted recruitment, we could easily still have a few of those here, now being the ‘experienced’ guys, with the next batch coming in. And we’d have saved a fortune! 
 

You almost need a mix of recruitment styles operated by other clubs. The same clubs get mentioned all the time, but what you need is a mix of a Peterborough/Brentford model, where you are bringing in players of future value and importance, but also a bit of Sheff Utd, who bring in the mid-twenties, plug and play types. 
It has to be a mix of both. Ours under Ashton has been scattergun and thoughtless (and dare I say it, but a nice little earner for all involved!) 

Did you see my other post re Brentford.

Maupay > Watkins (already there) > Toney (bought) > Forss (already there)

[IAmNick]

3 hours ago, Harry said:

 

It's pretty obvious to me that our gradual decline is down to our recruitment.

Let's look at our squad pre-Ashton and now under Ashton.

When we came up, we had a young and inexperienced squad.  They took a little while to 'bed-in' to Championship level, but pretty much all of them have now more than established themselves at this level (and some above).

After Ashton arrived, the following players remained for the start of the 16/17 season (and thus were signed by previous managers or were academy) League appearances that season in brackets :
Fielding (27), Little (28), Bryan (44), Flint (46), Smith (23), Reid (30), Wilbs (31), Pack (42), Vyner (1), Ayling (1)

That's 8 players who made up the bulk of the team that season.  A season in which they gradually improved and became more experienced at this level.

The next season, 17/18, the following were left from 'pre-Ashton' recruitment :
Fielding (43), Bryan (43), Flint (39), Smith (45), Reid (46), Pack (42), Vyner (1)

That's still 6 players who made up the majority of the team, and we had arguably the best season at this level so far.

The next season, 18/19, we are left with the following 'pre-Ashton' recruitment :
Fielding (7), Smith (6), Pack (46), Bryan (2), Vyner (0)

So, pretty much just 1 regular player from pre-Ashton recruitment.  It was this season where things started to fall apart, with a lack of game-plan, a lack of quality, a lack of entertainment.  Is it starting to click as to what's going on......?

Then onto 19/20, we now had the following :
Smith (22), Pack (1), Vyner (8)

No key players from pre-Ashton. Caveated partly here with Smith playing injured before a post-pandemic comeback and Vyner just a post-pandemic loan return.
Now, it was this season which saw turgid football and a total disenfranchisement of the fanbase.

Onto this season, and all that's left from 'pre-Ashton' is Vyner.  

 

It's quite clear that you can see a gradual decline in performance goes in tandem with the gradual break up of the 'pre-Ashton' players.  The recruitment has been awful.  We now have an inferior team to that which we had pre-Ashton.  Yet they're being paid nearly twice as much!!!

The promotion team needed time to find their feet at this level and then to have gradual enhancements made, with young recruits added as future replacements to slowly be integrated (i.e. sign a 19 year old Smith replacement, allow Smith to play to his prime, and then introduce his replacement.

Great / thought provoking post, and I broadly agree. I think I'd put more blame at Lee's door personally, as otherwise in my mind I can't help the nagging feeling that correlation doesn't always equal causation.

The Wolves game where it "all went wrong" we had as you've mentioned 6 "pre Ashton" players, and 5 "Ashton / Lee" players (Wright, Baker, Magnússon, Brownhill, Paterson)... with 2 more coming on as subs (Taylor, Eliasson) which is a reasonable picture of us at that time I think. That's the season as you mentioned we looked best right which I don't think there'd be much disagreement with.

So to summarise:

A full "pre Asthon/Lee" team - we finish in our lowest position(s).

A mixed team - we play our best football and have our best shot at going up, being almost top at Christmas.

A full Ashton/Lee team - we're on a downward trajectory again.

For that reason I don't think it's quite as cut as dry as you're making it out to be. There are clearly two names there for me. I also think that we weren't and haven't been getting the best tune out of what we do have which for me lies at the coaches door.

If we're going to put poor recruitment fully on Ashton, we have to put poor performances fully at the coach(es), no?

3 hours ago, Harry said:

Instead our recruitment has gone backwards, with no future-planning.  6 of our last 7 permanent signings are over the age of 30!!  We are no longer making the two types of signings that any good club should make - 1) Youngsters for future-planning and 2) Players in their early-mid 20's who can slot in and perform now.  We are now making panic signings to try to bring in 'experience', which is the exact thing those 'pre-Ashton' signings should have been kept, as they would now be those 'experienced' players, with your next batch coming through.

This is all on 1 person.  The person who is in charge of recruitment.  Sod, Cotterill & Burt get credit for putting that 'pre-Ashton'  squad together.  As soon as Ashton took over, it slowly but surely worsened.
Actually - it's down to 2 people.  Ashton is in charge of recruitment.  But Lansdown put him there and allowed him to have that control.

We have been going backwards for 5 years now under Ashton - 2 years were good, but were 'hidden' by the previous regime's recruitment.  Until he leaves this club, we will gradually be in decline.  I think we're ok this year (just about), but if he's in charge next season, I fear we will go down.  As others have said, it's an eerily similar feeling to our last relegation - a gradual worsening in recruitment, older players being signed on high contracts, no planning for the future.  He runs a hit and hope recruitment policy with no plan.  He has to go, or we will not turn this decline around.

Yeah, I agree here. Our current strategy is most noticeable by it's lack of existence as far as I can see (or not!).

I do however find it curious that as Holden took over, our signings last summer were markedly different from previous years - if Ashton has the coach by the short and curlies what is the reason for that change as the coach changes? To me that implies he does have some input into what's going on. They've patted themselves on the back due to having lists, and lists of lists of players before so why the deviation from what we've seen the last few years?

I also think that while your strategy obviously makes sense, the key is to keep your young stars and the only way that's going to happen is if they see you as a club on an upward trajectory. Again, not to place too much at Holden's door as I do like the bloke but the club in it's current state doesn't scream "Ok, let's give it another year and see what happens" to me if I'm a Brownhill, Kelly, Semenyo or whatever, it says "I'm gonna get out while my stock is high as I don't want to get forgotten about".

If your conveyor belt of high quality players produces 1 or 2 each year then I struggle to see how that strategy leads to promotion without an exceptional coach. If they're hoping for the stars to align and the whole crop to come good at once I fail to see how that's possible - and our signings don't reflect that. If they're expecting a couple of good players each year we are then likely to sell to either balance the books, or because they don't want to stay - at what point is the team going to be good enough to seriously challenge?

Broadly I think to go up you probably need either one exceptional person (recruitment or coach) and one solidly above average one, or two very good ones. At the moment one of ours (Ashton) isn't even reaching average for me, so I'm struggling to see how whoever we appointed in the other role could get us where we want - assuming you're correct (and I have no reason to doubt you) about our head coaches power/remit.

[Davefevs]

The beauty of the “buy young” approach is cost....generally fees and wages will be less, plus you can extend contracts mid-term to keep them from getting heads turned too quickly.

If you buy 25+, you have consider what do you do mid-term and end of contract.

There has to be some balance, but there is enough young talent out there at the right price if you know what you’re recruiting towards.  Nor do I expect every transfer to be a success, but I do expect a better hit rate than currently.

We’ve moved away from the young approach.  From a playing side I liked the signings of Hunt and Weimann, but what was the plan for them this summer (when they were signed 2 1/2 years ago)?

[Lenners]

Facing up to the media I’m told, will be doing a BP interview this week and will be on Sound of the City with Twentyman next week.

Should be interesting.

[Lrrr]

Do you mean BP this coming week and Twentyman the following week? Bit late this week for BP isn't it? Would match up with him saying he'd do something with Twentyman once the window closed as well and soon after it.

[Keepers Ball]

A very interesting article on him.

Found by someone called Patrick Dicks on Twitter.

Scarily familiar

 

https://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/sport/3995357.oliver-phillips-reflects-on-the-departure-of-mark-ashton-from-watford/