There may be trouble ahead ?

[Numero Uno]

9 minutes ago, Simon79 said:

He has signed Mawson, Martin, Mariappa, Sessengon, Williams of the top of my head. All of whom would be on decent wages. Also a total swift from our normal transfer activity.  On top of the young players being a year older & successful loan players returning. I think Holden has had it pretty good I’d say. Of course the injuries haven’t helped, but totally different to before I’d say. COYR 

Mawson has missed half a season, Sessegnon has been available for a handful of games and who the **** is Williams?!!! That leaves Martin, a bang average Championship performer and Mariappa who is probably on the last contract of his career. To say the injuries "haven't helped" is putting it very mildly. The injuries have decimated us meaning we have the likes of Vyner, Moore, Semenyo, Edwards, Bakinson and Massengo all learning on the job in one of the toughest leagues there is to learn on the job, some more successfully than others. The league 1 player of the year from last season is harder to locate than Lord Lucan, one of the better left backs in the division is out for who knows how long and we have around a dozen guaranteed goals a season in Pato and Weimman crocked for most of the season. We recall a Left Back to take some of the load off Tommy Rowe and he's out for the season too. Yeah, it certainly "hasn't helped"........

[Simon79]

6 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Mawson has missed half a season, Sessegnon has been available for a handful of games and who the **** is Williams?!!! That leaves Martin, a bang average Championship performer and Mariappa who is probably on the last contract of his career. To say the injuries "haven't helped" is putting it very mildly. The injuries have decimated us meaning we have the likes of Vyner, Moore, Semenyo, Edwards, Bakinson and Massengo all learning on the job in one of the toughest leagues there is to learn on the job, some more successfully than others. The league 1 player of the year from last season is harder to locate than Lord Lucan, one of the better left backs in the division is out for who knows how long and we have around a dozen guaranteed goals a season in Pato and Weimman crocked for most of the season. We recall a Left Back to take some of the load off Tommy Rowe and he's out for the season too. Yeah, it certainly "hasn't helped"........

So different to the McInnes debacle? COYR 

[Numero Uno]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Absolutely it will impact more than Bristol City.  But how many supposedly stable clubs have an operational deficit of £34m, or costs that are 124% of income?  You are looking at the clubs we tend to call basket case clubs.  Your Preston’s, Millwall’s, Brentford’s etc will be less impacted by Covid, their cost v income “jaws” aren’t as wide as ours...ours have grown out of control imho.  The parachute payment clubs too, as their revenues are vast in comparison.  We’ve seen the likes of Norwich and Bournemouth hold on to their stars this time around.

They’ve rejected it at the mo’, because it had a series of loopholes that would make it pointless to implement.  It will evolve into something workable I hope.

He keeps showing him Player Trading or Profit on Disposal of Player contracts....and hides all the rest!

I accept what you say on finances because reading your posts I can see that you look at it in far more detail than I do. There is obvious reason for concern, all I'm saying is I think we are not as badly placed as some clubs accepting that you have named other clubs who will be better placed. The light at the end of the tunnel for me is that the learning on the job of all our younger lads must surely bear some fruit next season. I don't expect them all to be a success at Championship level but I think some of them will be and we should see better performances on a more consistent basis next season from them that will help to ease the financial burden and hopefully keep us competitive.

The laughable thing for me is that we are reduced to (informed) speculation on here because the "leadership" from the people paid to lead at the club seems to ne non-existent. Either that or they genuinely believe we should unwaveringly pay for our £500 season ticket and shut the **** up!!

[Numero Uno]

5 minutes ago, Simon79 said:

So different to the McInnes debacle? COYR 

Yes, injuries are killing us.

I never forget Dean Gerken putting the final nail in the McInnes coffin with that performance against Leicester btw.........nobody can convince me that wasn't deliberate!!

[JoeAman08]

Without reading everything...

Financially we have maybe more worries about building a playoff competitive side than we did pre covid. That said, this will apply to many clubs.
 

Think we are already seeing the club preparing. We have a big advantage in terms of expiring contracts. Hunt, Weimann, Paterson, Diedhiou, Walsh and Baker plus the loans are all coming off the books. Now we need to maybe look at resigning 1-2 of those but would the cost be more? I don’t think players can look at pay rises at the minute. Not sure there will be enough of a market for these types of players to get bigger offers elsewhere. Looking at wages coming off the books, we are probably looking at close to 5m off the books next season. 
 

In terms of replacing these players, we have a lot of players with championship experience still here. We have been giving minutes to young players possibly with an eye on future finances. For the most part if all loans and expiring contracts left, we could still field a good enough to finish mid table. Bentley, Kalas, Williams, Martin, Wells, Dasilva, Vyner and Nagy are a very good start to a team. Throw in Bakinson, Massengo, Moore and Semenyo there is a lot to like here. It just comes down to do we have the correct coaching staff to get mote from them? 

[Wiltshire robin]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 

It’s not the loss, it’s not FFP.....it’s how the finances will hamstring us going forward together with a transfer market that below the Prem has seen its arse fall through.  Our strategy no longer has the opportunity to sell players at top dollar to cover the waste / cost-base.

We can still sell players for big money it’s just that none of are players are worth anything , Norwich are quoting arsenal 40 million for one of there midfielders 

[Bris Red]

2 hours ago, Alessandro said:

The argument about "well we're better off than others" - I just don't get it. That's not the point:

The argument is are we our best selves? Are we maximising our potential? Are we making the most of our opportunities?

 Yes, other teams accounts will look worse, especially this year, and yes, a loss on a football clubs accounts is nothing new. 

But it's the bigger picture specific to our club...FFP, future transfer kittys. Player contracts. Implementation of the strategy. We're already seeing it trickle onto the pitch and the signs are not good. That directly effects our ability to compete. 

Don't worry, we'll just go again....go again where? Round in circles? Making the same mistakes? 

That doesn't achieve your goals in life, "wait and see"....waste and squander.

Unfortunately that has become the Bristol City blueprint under the Lansdown family.. The board under their stewardship has always been happy with mediocrity - aslong as we are ticking along that is enough. It’s been done to death but I genuinely believe the Rugby club is where Steve’s main priorities are now anyway, the football club is just a sideshow for him.

[Davefevs]

26 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

Without reading everything...

Financially we have maybe more worries about building a playoff competitive side than we did pre covid. That said, this will apply to many clubs.
 

Think we are already seeing the club preparing. We have a big advantage in terms of expiring contracts. Hunt, Weimann, Paterson, Diedhiou, Walsh and Baker plus the loans are all coming off the books. Now we need to maybe look at resigning 1-2 of those but would the cost be more? I don’t think players can look at pay rises at the minute. Not sure there will be enough of a market for these types of players to get bigger offers elsewhere. Looking at wages coming off the books, we are probably looking at close to 5m off the books next season. 
 

In terms of replacing these players, we have a lot of players with championship experience still here. We have been giving minutes to young players possibly with an eye on future finances. For the most part if all loans and expiring contracts left, we could still field a good enough to finish mid table. Bentley, Kalas, Williams, Martin, Wells, Dasilva, Vyner and Nagy are a very good start to a team. Throw in Bakinson, Massengo, Moore and Semenyo there is a lot to like here. It just comes down to do we have the correct coaching staff to get mote from them? 

Here’s your squad for next season.

Assumes we don’t extend anyone, take an option.

[Alessandro]

23 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

I accept what you say on finances because reading your posts I can see that you look at it in far more detail than I do. There is obvious reason for concern, all I'm saying is I think we are not as badly placed as some clubs accepting that you have named other clubs who will be better placed. The light at the end of the tunnel for me is that the learning on the job of all our younger lads must surely bear some fruit next season. I don't expect them all to be a success at Championship level but I think some of them will be and we should see better performances on a more consistent basis next season from them that will help to ease the financial burden and hopefully keep us competitive.

The laughable thing for me is that we are reduced to (informed) speculation on here because the "leadership" from the people paid to lead at the club seems to ne non-existent. Either that or they genuinely believe we should unwaveringly pay for our £500 season ticket and shut the **** up!!

Your optimism is based on pure speculation.

Over the last, what 5, 6, 7 years we've sold, for a major profit, 2 players from our academy?

We currently have maybe 3 players from the academy getting fairly consistent minutes in the team, Vyner, Bakinson (half an academy product) and Semenyo. That's not enough for a team next season.

IMO you're pinning a lot on the 'hope' that simply giving game time to a few young players and sticking a few more on the bench will develop them top championship performers. Because that's the aim, good enough for a move to the prem or good enough to help get us in the prem, isn't it?

That's one hell of a gamble and history shows it's very, very rarely as simple as that. In reality our transfer strategy has relied more on signed and sold for more players - Kodjia, Flint, Webster, Brownhill than the academy. 

[Rob k]

Just now, bris red said:

Unfortunately that has become the Bristol City blueprint under the Lansdown family.. The board under their stewardship has always been happy with mediocrity - aslong as we are ticking along that is enough. It’s been done to death but I genuinely believe the Rugby club is where Steve’s main priorities are now anyway, the football club is just a sideshow for him.

I never get why people constantly go on about the rugby club being his priority, that’s simply not true, 

The rugby costs a fraction of the football club and the rugby club is a very attractive proposition for players, they also have a sensible salary cap in place where as football doesn’t 

[Kodjias Wrist]

30 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Yes, injuries are killing us.

I never forget Dean Gerken putting the final nail in the McInnes coffin with that performance against Leicester btw.........nobody can convince me that wasn't deliberate!!

The 4-0 after 35 mins at home ? Yeah dreadful but as the league shows not quite as bad as that atm. Foundations are far better now than they were then credit to the powers that be. It could be worse, we could be Derby or Forest....or Wednesday. 

[Fatknacker]

9 minutes ago, bris red said:

Unfortunately that has become the Bristol City blueprint under the Lansdown family.. The board under their stewardship has always been happy with mediocrity - aslong as we are ticking along that is enough. It’s been done to death but I genuinely believe the Rugby club is where Steve’s main priorities are now anyway, the football club is just a sideshow for him.

Yep, what has the Lansdown family ever done for us, a great stadium I suppose, financial stability and security, the mediocrity of second tier mid table status...I’ve known worse, in fact for the whole of my 54 years as an active supporter it’s been worse.

[TomThumb84]

I struggle with this whole “could be worse mentality” around our football club.

Surely the fact that we have all the pieces in place (stadium, support, financial security (until now perhaps), geographical location, etc), and not been able to kick on makes it even worse?

Added to this an inability to kick on when we are riding the crest of a wave (2008, 2015, 2018), by repeating the same cyclical trend of mistakes and inability to make decisive positive moves to push on through, thus resulting in a predictable decline compounds the disappointment and sense of underachievement.

Could be worse, sure, it always could, but actually it could also be so much better and we are one of the few clubs who can genuinely say that.

[Kid in the Riot]

1 hour ago, Fordy62 said:

I think it’s hitting home the job that LJ did for us. 

Yes he sold Webster for 16m profit, but that’s not such an astonishing achievement when you’ve doubled or trebled the playing wage in 4 years. 

Yes, it is becoming very clear.

Our wage bill for his last season in charge was 12th highest in the C'ship, and we finished 12th.

A lower mid-table (13-15th) wage bill throughout his time at City and league finishes of 11th and 8th, before that.

A negative net transfer spend for two seasons running, 2018/2019 and 2019/20, totaling £31.6m, almost unheard of in the Championship.

Some would say that seems like overachievement given the resources at his disposal. 

We actually have plenty of headroom in regards to FFP too, as the below table shows:

[Bobbie]

Win a couple of games and all is well again on here. Lose and the world is about to end 

[Numero Uno]

1 hour ago, Alessandro said:

Your optimism is based on pure speculation.

Over the last, what 5, 6, 7 years we've sold, for a major profit, 2 players from our academy?

We currently have maybe 3 players from the academy getting fairly consistent minutes in the team, Vyner, Bakinson (half an academy product) and Semenyo. That's not enough for a team next season.

IMO you're pinning a lot on the 'hope' that simply giving game time to a few young players and sticking a few more on the bench will develop them top championship performers. Because that's the aim, good enough for a move to the prem or good enough to help get us in the prem, isn't it?

That's one hell of a gamble and history shows it's very, very rarely as simple as that. In reality our transfer strategy has relied more on signed and sold for more players - Kodjia, Flint, Webster, Brownhill than the academy. 

It's speculation based on seeing Bakinson, Vyner and Semenyo in particular being far better players now than they were 12 months ago. I expect that upward curve to continue with them but agreed there is an element of speculation in there. I am seeing chinks of light with Massengo and I think O'Leary has proved he will be decent enough when Bentley goes to the Prem at the end of the season. Edwards is behind the others so probably needs another season and Moore I'm just not sure is learning quick enough being brutal about it. It's an opinion, same as you have opinions on things.....you might reply to my post in 6 months time saying Genius or ********!!

The next part of what you say is the bit where we may differ a bit in terms of Stevie Lansdown and his puppet Markie Boy can talk to me about Premiership football being the aim until they are blue in the face but the simple fact is I don't believe them and haven't for a while now. Until they spot a RELATIVELY (before people jump on my back) easy and low cost way of achieving Premiership football you can forget it as far as I'm concerned. The previous strategy of buy cheap and sell high was the strategy that would enable us to theoretically strengthen but that strategy is going to fall by the wayside for a good few years now unless you can literally pluck a number of Adam Websters out of the air because football transfer fees and wages will bomb in my view.

I am convinced that the short term aim is that the younger lads currently in the side plus those like Pring who have been out on loan will be expected to come back and make an impact on our squad. That doesn't mean TOP Championship performer necessarily, average will suffice for Steve. It's a low cost strategy. Whether you agree with that or think it is doomed to failure is another matter but I do happen to think that next season we have enough of these lads to make an impact in the side and save us having to mass buy in the next (forget this one, we won't be buying a Tesco Carrier Bag) window. Speculation? Maybe.

[Numero Uno]

1 hour ago, Kodjias Wrist said:

The 4-0 after 35 mins at home ? Yeah dreadful but as the league shows not quite as bad as that atm. Foundations are far better now than they were then credit to the powers that be. It could be worse, we could be Derby or Forest....or Wednesday. 

Yes, and Gerken was treated shabbily that season because McInnes insisted on playing the hapless James despite Gerken's form in the games he did play suggesting otherwise. We all know who had the last laugh in that particular disagreement...............

Dressing Room - "we've had enough of this clown"

Gerken - "hold my beer"

[KegCity]

4 hours ago, Alessandro said:

The argument about "well we're better off than others" - I just don't get it. That's not the point:

The argument is are we our best selves? Are we maximising our potential? Are we making the most of our opportunities?

 Yes, other teams accounts will look worse, especially this year, and yes, a loss on a football clubs accounts is nothing new. 

But it's the bigger picture specific to our club...FFP, future transfer kittys. Player contracts. Implementation of the strategy. We're already seeing it trickle onto the pitch and the signs are not good. That directly effects our ability to compete. 

Don't worry, we'll just go again....go again where? Round in circles? Making the same mistakes? 

That doesn't achieve your goals in life, "wait and see"....waste and squander.

This is what worries me. We do appear to be regressing now, both on and off the field, and if there isn’t a change in attitude soon it could fall apart. Mistakes have been made, and unforeseen obstacles emerge, but we need to learn from them rather than repeat them as we have done for the last few seasons. Hopefully we can use the bit of leeway given to us by our healthy (ish) FFP and capitalise, but I’m not sure we will.

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Changes need to be made around the way we operate, or we could well have a repeat of 8 years ago on the horizon.

[Davefevs]

32 minutes ago, Bobbie said:

Win a couple of games and all is well again on here. Lose and the world is about to end 

I’m not sure whether the Accounts news was the bad news to hide the football, or the other way around!

For, I don’t care how good Norwich were / are, our overall performance was not good enough last night, especially following much encouragement from Saturday v PNE.

The very poor games / halves are concerning.

[Sheltons Army]

37 minutes ago, Bobbie said:

Win a couple of games and all is well again on here. Lose and the world is about to end 

 

[2015]

20 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Yes, and Gerken was treated shabbily that season because McInnes insisted on playing the hapless James despite Gerken's form in the games he did play suggesting otherwise. We all know who had the last laugh in that particular disagreement...............

Dressing Room - "we've had enough of this clown"

Gerken - "hold my beer"

I always thought McInnes' biggest mistake in 12/13 was not going in for Andre Bikey when he was immense at the end of 11/12 season.
We were due to go down because of poor management

[Alessandro]

37 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

It's speculation based on seeing Bakinson, Vyner and Semenyo in particular being far better players now than they were 12 months ago. I expect that upward curve to continue with them but agreed there is an element of speculation in there. I am seeing chinks of light with Massengo and I think O'Leary has proved he will be decent enough when Bentley goes to the Prem at the end of the season. Edwards is behind the others so probably needs another season and Moore I'm just not sure is learning quick enough being brutal about it. It's an opinion, same as you have opinions on things.....you might reply to my post in 6 months time saying Genius or ********!!

The next part of what you say is the bit where we may differ a bit in terms of Stevie Lansdown and his puppet Markie Boy can talk to me about Premiership football being the aim until they are blue in the face but the simple fact is I don't believe them and haven't for a while now. Until they spot a RELATIVELY (before people jump on my back) easy and low cost way of achieving Premiership football you can forget it as far as I'm concerned. The previous strategy of buy cheap and sell high was the strategy that would enable us to theoretically strengthen but that strategy is going to fall by the wayside for a good few years now unless you can literally pluck a number of Adam Websters out of the air because football transfer fees and wages will bomb in my view.

I am convinced that the short term aim is that the younger lads currently in the side plus those like Pring who have been out on loan will be expected to come back and make an impact on our squad. That doesn't mean TOP Championship performer necessarily, average will suffice for Steve. It's a low cost strategy. Whether you agree with that or think it is doomed to failure is another matter but I do happen to think that next season we have enough of these lads to make an impact in the side and save us having to mass buy in the next (forget this one, we won't be buying a Tesco Carrier Bag) window. Speculation? Maybe.

The reality is mate, as you say neither you or I can predict the future, so either of us could be right! Time will tell...we could be really squeezed and left with an inexperienced, average ability squad fighting relegation next season or all those players mentioned come good and we charge up the league. 

I really don't disagree with much of what you've written there...our differences are expectations.

I expect us to build towards being genuine premier league contenders, why? Because I believe, with the right people, we are more than capable of that. You seem happy to accept competing in the championship? That's fine. Yes absolutely, i'm stupid to think everything that comes out the clubs mouths is gospel, but they talk year on year about premier league in training, in waiting. Surely as fans (and shareholders) we have to hold them to account for their statements and actions? 

What both you and I can only speculate on is what SL really wants. I personally don't think he would have spent on the ground, training and squad in the way he has over the last 4 or 5 years if he didn't want promotion. As i've said before, not at any cost, but yes, promotion. 

Bottom line for me is the club is not getting maximum 'bang for buck' in what it's doing right now. That to me is largely down to personnel and the frustration for many is that SL seems to make the same mistakes when employing these people in key positions at the club. 

[Sleepy1968]

5 hours ago, City oz said:

We played like crap and had no ideas. The camera panned on DH when Norwich scored their first goal and you can see defeat in his face. OK we came out quite bright after the break but we lacked ideas and we always looked like loosing. 

 

I've no idea what DH said post match, but "We played like crap and had no ideas." would've been truthful

He looked like a dear in the headlights whenever sky cameras caught him.

[IAmNick]

2 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

A negative net transfer spend for two seasons running, 2018/2019 and 2019/20, totaling £31.6m, almost unheard of in the Championship.

I get your overall point but it's worth sticking to the facts.

Teams with a negative net transfer spend in...

2018/19:

Swansea (38.34m), WBA (10.27m), Boro (23.93m), Derby (400k), PNE (333k), Millwall (4.14m), Brentford (25.56m), S Utd (5.13m), Ipswich (6.81m), Norwich (28.94m), S Weds (1.53m), QPR (3.6m), Reading (540k), Wigan (1.17m)

2019/20:

Cardiff (1.61m), Huddersfield (14.49m), Leeds (27.36m), WBA (14.19m), Boro (9.57m), Forest (8.78m), Swansea (35.21m), Brentford (5.64m), S Weds (3.87m), Hull (16.7m), PNE (5m), Brum (12.17m), QPR (7.51m), Luton (8.4m), Barnsley (1.85m), Charlton (1.78m).

You'll also notice in 2018/19 4 of the top 6 had a negative net transfer spend. In 2019/20 5 of the top 6 did.

Having a net negative transfer spend in the Championship is not at all unusual. In fact the clubs who don't (to any significant margin) as mostly the ones we consider total basket cases.

[JoeAman08]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s your squad for next season.

Assumes we don’t extend anyone, take an option.

I don’t think that is awful. Is it just me though? That won’t be worse than who barely stays up or comes up imo. We will definitely need a few but that is a good core to start with I think. 

[headhunter]

2 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

I don’t think that is awful. Is it just me though? That won’t be worse than who barely stays up or comes up imo. We will definitely need a few but that is a good core to start with I think. 

I'm thinking the same as you

[M.D]

16 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

I don’t think that is awful. Is it just me though? That won’t be worse than who barely stays up or comes up imo. We will definitely need a few but that is a good core to start with I think. 

 

13 minutes ago, headhunter said:

I'm thinking the same as you

I agree, that looks like a platform to build on with adding a few new key players, maybe on a free..

[Bobbie]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I’m not sure whether the Accounts news was the bad news to hide the football, or the other way around!

For, I don’t care how good Norwich were / are, our overall performance was not good enough last night, especially following much encouragement from Saturday v PNE.

The very poor games / halves are concerning.

Perhaps you should lower your expectations? 

[Davefevs]

52 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

I don’t think that is awful. Is it just me though? That won’t be worse than who barely stays up or comes up imo. We will definitely need a few but that is a good core to start with I think. 

Yeah, wasn’t expressing my opinion, just providing the facts!

For info, you can also decide on:

• Weimann
• Adelakun
• Wollacott
• Opi Edwards
• Freddie Hinds

all have year options. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

I think it’s hitting home the job that LJ did for us. 

Yes he sold Webster for 16m profit, but that’s not such an astonishing achievement when you’ve doubled or trebled the playing wage in 4 years. 

The job Holden has got is very much like the job McIness had post Coppell... there’s no financial room left. 

According to Kieran Maguire on the radio the other day, our wage bill trebled since the 2015 accounts.

There is still time IMO, with the many out of contract this summer but we have very little medium term margin for error.