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Hull City - similarities


Sir Geoff

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After 28 games last season

Hull  position 12th Won11 Drew 6 Lost 11 GF 40 GA 36 PTS 39 GD +4

After 28 games, BCFC this season 10th Won  12 Drew 3 Lost 13 GF 29 GA 33 PTS 39 GD -4

End of season Hull finished bottom of the league, picking up only 6 more points.

Yes Hull lost Jerrod Bowen in the January window but they still scored 57 goals.

As it stands we have already lost 2 more games than they had at the same stage, scored 11 fewer goals and our goal difference is -8 worse.

Not saying we will go down but it can happen if our level of performance and confidence doesn't pick up soon. The next few games could easily send us into a bit of a tailspin.

 

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Interesting comparison, @Sir Geoff, plenty of parallels there. 

I still think we need around four wins to stay up this year, and that we will be in serious danger of relegation next year if nothing is done. But after that display against Cardiff against a backdrop of 9 defeats in the last 12 and the fact we consistently fail to muster a shot on target, I'm starting to worry where those points will come from. 

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14 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

After 28 games last season

Hull  position 12th Won11 Drew 6 Lost 11 GF 40 GA 36 PTS 39 GD +4

After 28 games, BCFC this season 10th Won  12 Drew 3 Lost 13 GF 29 GA 33 PTS 39 GD -4

End of season Hull finished bottom of the league, picking up only 6 more points.

Yes Hull lost Jerrod Bowen in the January window but they still scored 57 goals.

As it stands we have already lost 2 more games than they had at the same stage, scored 11 fewer goals and our goal difference is -8 worse.

Not saying we will go down but it can happen if our level of performance and confidence doesn't pick up soon. The next few games could easily send us into a bit of a tailspin.

 

The big difference is Hull were almost 100% reliant on two players, sold them, and bombed. If we'd sold Kalas and Bentley and sent Mawson back I could start to see the parallels. The fact that we do have an ability to pick up a result here and there when the performance is absolutely shite (Forest, Huddersfield second half), we have one of the better Goalkeepers in the division, have players capable of doing something special that leads to a clear chance on goal occasionally (Palmer, Semenyo, Paterson and now Lansbury) and that Dave will get us 5-6 more goals this season will see us through. It doesn't address the underlying problem of consistent lack of performance in the first place though. If that isn't addressed then next season could be a tough one.

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It’s a very familiar story.

Stop scoring goals, create fewer chances, heads drop in defence, concede more goals, get relegated.

Those of us that have followed since the late 60’s have seen this all before.

 

A change of manager may stop the rot. I fear, however, the decay is throughout the Club at the moment. The manager is just the obvious target and change in that position alone will not provide a fix.

Troubling times indeed, and I fear that even a Director of Football appointment may be too late now. Pity Steve didn’t wake up to the issues about 3 years ago. It was patently obvious to those who have any footballing nouse that there were matters that needed attention. The longer you leave them, invariably, the worse they get. 

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38 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

After 28 games last season

Hull  position 12th Won11 Drew 6 Lost 11 GF 40 GA 36 PTS 39 GD +4

After 28 games, BCFC this season 10th Won  12 Drew 3 Lost 13 GF 29 GA 33 PTS 39 GD -4

End of season Hull finished bottom of the league, picking up only 6 more points.

Yes Hull lost Jerrod Bowen in the January window but they still scored 57 goals.

As it stands we have already lost 2 more games than they had at the same stage, scored 11 fewer goals and our goal difference is -8 worse.

Not saying we will go down but it can happen if our level of performance and confidence doesn't pick up soon. The next few games could easily send us into a bit of a tailspin.

 

I’ve thought this for a couple of weeks.  Nearly every team dominates us or controls us easily. But we’ve found a way to win in some games Eg Preston. That could stop happening.

 

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We are not too good to go down.

I will repeat what happened in 1979-1980. 

At the end of November after 17 games, City had 16 points. (2 for a win and 1 for a draw). At this stage around 8th to 10th place.

We then went on a horrible run with 3 draws and 7 defeats. In that run we only scored 6 goals, 4 of which were penalties. Now heading for the bottom.

Relegated with 31 points. So from the last 25 games a measly 15 points.

It can never happen again you might say if you are an optimist. I'm not saying it will happen but in life, one should never say never. Sod's Law says that if anything is possible, anything can happen.

Bristol was the first city/town, apart from London, to have two clubs relegated from the same league in the same season. 1981-1982.

We were also the first city to have two clubs promoted in the same league in the same season. (I know that BRFC were playing at Trumpton but they are a Bristol club).

They were relegated, as we all know, by only spending the last few minutes of the last game in a relegation place.

Could that happen to us this season?

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48 minutes ago, RedRock said:

It’s a very familiar story.

Stop scoring goals, create fewer chances, heads drop in defence, concede more goals, get relegated.

Those of us that have followed since the late 60’s have seen this all before.

 

A change of manager may stop the rot. I fear, however, the decay is throughout the Club at the moment. The manager is just the obvious target and change in that position alone will not provide a fix.

Troubling times indeed, and I fear that even a Director of Football appointment may be too late now. Pity Steve didn’t wake up to the issues about 3 years ago. It was patently obvious to those who have any footballing nouse that there were matters that needed attention. The longer you leave them, invariably, the worse they get. 

It is familiar isn’t it? We’ve been up and down at this level enough times that you start to be able to see it coming... maybe not this season but it’s coming without a dramatic change of some sort. 
I’d challenge anyone to make a case that our likely next exit from this division will be up not down. 

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Would not be surprised to get a win Wednesday, take the pressure off DH and plummet in the league, would not be the 1st team to do well in the cup and get relegated

As others have said we have been outplayed and dominated by virtually every team we have played, whilst hopefully we start to get players back, I am not convinced DH has the management capability to keep us up, let alone next season. We are only OK at the moment due to a good start and Dan Bentley.

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Remember Norwich. In the 93-94 season, by Christmas, they were seventh in the Premier league. They  then won only one of their final 20 league games and slumped to 20th place and relegation, ending a nine-season run in the top flight 

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14 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

Remember Norwich. In the 93-94 season, by Christmas, they were seventh in the Premier league. They  then won only one of their final 20 league games and slumped to 20th place and relegation, ending a nine-season run in the top flight 

Bryan Gunn got injured and they went with Andy Marshall for the rest of the season.

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27 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Bryan Gunn got injured and they went with Andy Marshall for the rest of the season.

Thanks a bunch. You’ve just put the kiss of death on Bentley. Tomorrow’s headline- “Bentley out for the rest of the season with mystery injury “

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2 hours ago, pongo88 said:

Remember Norwich. In the 93-94 season, by Christmas, they were seventh in the Premier league. They  then won only one of their final 20 league games and slumped to 20th place and relegation, ending a nine-season run in the top flight 

Was that also the season that they beat Bayern in Munich in the UEFA cup?

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50 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Was that also the season that they beat Bayern in Munich in the UEFA cup?

I think it was, which means they must have been relegated in 94-95 not 93-94 as I originally said 

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  1. Brentford - 80
  2. Swansea - 76
  3. Norwich - 73
  4. Reading - 66
  5. Watford - 63
  6. Bournemouth - 56
  7. Boro - 53
  8. Blackburn - 53
  9. Forest - 51
  10. Barnsley - 50
  11. Stoke - 49
  12. Preston - 49
  13. Millwall - 49
  14. QPR - 48 (GD - 5)
  15. Bristol City - 48 (GD -10)
  16. Luton - 45
  17. Rotherham - 45
  18. Derby - 44
  19. Cardiff - 42
  20. Huddersfield - 42
  21. Coventry - 41
  22. Wednesday - 41
  23. Brum - 34
  24. Wycombe - 21

 

For those who say "no chance" to relegation - if you extrapolate form from the last 10 games, above is how the table will look in 10 games time.

7 points off the relegation zone with 8 games (24 points) to play to the end of the season.

When you consider only 3 teams currently have worse form than us, and one is Cardiff, so expect the new manager bounce to effect that...15th could be 17th if Derby and Cardiff continue to improve. 

Yes it's only 10 games of form, but it's the most recent form and is a guide that, unless something pretty drastically changes, well, play-offs are a pipe dream and a sobering slip down the table is not off the cards. 

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7 hours ago, Numero Uno said:

The big difference is Hull were almost 100% reliant on two players, sold them, and bombed. If we'd sold Kalas and Bentley and sent Mawson back I could start to see the parallels.

We might not have sold them but there’s a very decent chance that all 3 will be ruled out for the season in the coming weeks

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8 hours ago, Sir Geoff said:

After 28 games last season

Hull  position 12th Won11 Drew 6 Lost 11 GF 40 GA 36 PTS 39 GD +4

After 28 games, BCFC this season 10th Won  12 Drew 3 Lost 13 GF 29 GA 33 PTS 39 GD -4

End of season Hull finished bottom of the league, picking up only 6 more points.

Yes Hull lost Jerrod Bowen in the January window but they still scored 57 goals.

As it stands we have already lost 2 more games than they had at the same stage, scored 11 fewer goals and our goal difference is -8 worse.

Not saying we will go down but it can happen if our level of performance and confidence doesn't pick up soon. The next few games could easily send us into a bit of a tailspin.

 

Not sure I get the simularity in situations. 

Hull capitulated after loosing their 2 best players. 

We've been without many of our players an some are beginning to return. 

Time will tell and I think our upcoming fixtures will see the season slip away, but I can't see us being in any trouble of relegation, in any way shape or form. ?

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6 hours ago, Simon bristol said:

Really, the obvious weak side is wycombe, which leaves 2 other relegation spots for us to avoid,,, i wouldnt have much confidence in us playing anyone and backing us to win, but the likes of rotherham, luton, etc arent great either. On balance i suspect we will survive, but it wont be pretty.

Bit harsh on Rotherham, they are currently sat in 3rd place in the current form table and Luton are above us but I agree I think we will survive but it could get tight. 

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Another thread of stats trying to paint a gloomy end of season. Mostly rubbish I suspect and after a couple of wins this thread will look as irrelevant as those all the other gloomsters. 

However the comment about Sunderland is on the minds of most City fans, whether they come onto this forum or not. Lee Johnson probably gave us the best years at this level (bar one from his Dad) since 1975 which is about forty five seasons. Lee is a smart guy and moved to a much bigger club, with double the fan base (relevant post Covid crisis) by taking a short-term sideways step. 

Uncanny how many of those who today slag off MA and DH also appeared happy to slag off Johnson. 

Have we already lost at Watford this week, is there any point in the team travelling there? 

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