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The stats that tell the truth


redrob

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Do these stats tell us everything about what really happened earlier in the season and where were heading in my view.

image.thumb.png.49fdbaea27248f2e6ad60f0c8b68ffa0.png

For all the comments of but were only x points off 6th place does this show how we've over achieved and been very lucky to have probably the best keeper outside the Premier League save in what has at times been game after game.

With more games against top 7 teams to come does the picture just get worse. 

Discuss?!?! 

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28 minutes ago, redrob said:

Do these stats tell us everything about what really happened earlier in the season and where were heading in my view.

image.thumb.png.49fdbaea27248f2e6ad60f0c8b68ffa0.png

For all the comments of but were only x points off 6th place does this show how we've over achieved and been very lucky to have probably the best keeper outside the Premier League save in what has at times been game after game.

With more games against top 7 teams to come does the picture just get worse. 

Discuss?!?! 

Yes, and it was much discussed by many on here. The response from a few was that "the only stat that matters is the scoreline". 

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On 16/02/2021 at 21:43, ExiledAjax said:

Yes, and it was much discussed by many on here. The response from a few was that "the only stat that matters is the scoreline". 

It does, when it's a one off or you're picking up wins. Winning ugly is a good trait, only being able to win ugly and never looking good for it is not.

It took me a while to start to worry to be honest and I let Dean off a bit with the injuries but that lineup Tuesday was relatively strong players on paper

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The numbers in individual matches lately have been horrific.

Expected goals against Reading (0.23), Watford (0.32), Cardiff (0.29), Derby (0.15), and Norwich (0.08).

1.07 in total across 5 matches is abysmal. It was marginally better against Brentford and Huddersfield but we still lost by a distance to our opposition in those matches too.

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2 minutes ago, redrob said:

Haha.... 

That argument works when we win more than we lose. But is there ever a club with stats like those who end up winning more than they lose in the long run? I doubt it. 

Yep. Statistics like this catch up with you eventually.

The writing this Season has been on the wall since the Coventry match. We have a couple of decent performances in the bank, Stoke away and Millwall away in the Cup. The rest of the performances have been borderline useless apart from a few odd 10-20 minute spells. 

A few enlightened posters picked up we were a shambles a couple of years back.

You can only ride your luck for so long until the chickens come home to roost. They well and truly have now. We’re ****** awful and putting in some of the worst, most inept displays I’ve ever witnessed, including those in the old 4th Division. Rudderless, leaderless and clueless. All this from the most expensively assembled squad in entire history.
 

Oh dear. And we are entrusting our Head of Football Operations, the chap with prime responsibility for creating this ****fest to ‘go again’. 

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30 minutes ago, redrob said:

Haha.... 

That argument works when we win more than we lose. But is there ever a club with stats like those who end up winning more than they lose in the long run? I doubt it. 

Reading are an interesting one this season, earlier on they were massively outperforming where xG says they should be.

 

That's where the similarities end unfortunately. As whilst our results are now matching our performances, their performances started to match their results.

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There have been some horrific performances this season, especially of late - this has been born out by both being terrible to watch and the XG for and against being bad as highlighted in the OP.

However I disagree that this has been evident all season - in the early part of the season we played pretty well in enough matches to get points on the board. While we didn't often (ever?) dominate a match for the whole 90 minutes (which is notoriously dificult in the championship) I felt there were matches where on the balance of play we certianly deserved to win.

What the table in the OP proves is the old adage that a good gooalkeeper like Bentley is worth many points a season. I reckon when we look back at the end of the season he could have been worth 12+ pts for us.

In my view he is streets ahead of all others for player of the season this season - the club must do everything they can to keep him, without him we'd be far worse off and I fear if we lose him in the summer we are going to be staring a relegation fight in the face next season without some way of re-dressing the xG situation (either better attack or better defence, preferably both).

If you keep bents and get in the players (or manager) to improve xG, the dozen or so poitns attributed to him is the difference between mid table and playoffs, or between playoffs and autos.

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