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10 points from relegation 10 from playoffs


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50 minutes ago, Coolrunnings said:

Odds on us being relegated 9 to 1. Odds on us being promoted 250 to 1 .

Surely worth a £10 stranger things have happened.

One things for sure, if you have it as a double, you’re going to lose £10. 

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If you honestly think there is any chance whatsoever, then just bet the top 6 finish at 200/1.  We would need to win about 10 with 2/3 draws and only 2 defeats to have any chance. I don't think we have any chance whatsoever, but would more than happily be proved wrong. I would take staying up comfortable with a few games left and mid table (with a bit of enjoyable football to watch - by us).

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We're closer to the play offs with more games left than Villa were the year they got promoted, yes they had a better squad but it has been done. A tough first couple of games for Pearson after tonight however after that there's a chance to really get stuck in and build something, play offs probably too far, however top 10? 6 points atm and we play most of the teams between us and there.

Swansea (A)

Bournemouth (H)

QPR (H)

Birmingham (A)

Blackburn(A)

Rotherham (H)

Stoke (H)

Coventry (A)

Forest (H)

Wednesday (A)

Wycombe (A)

Luton (H)

Millwall (A)

Brentford (H)

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1 hour ago, Coolrunnings said:

Odds on us being relegated 9 to 1. Odds on us being promoted 250 to 1 .

Surely worth a £10 stranger things have happened.

Those 250/1 odds are just on us finishing top 6, not even to get promoted

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17 minutes ago, TheReds said:

If you honestly think there is any chance whatsoever, then just bet the top 6 finish at 200/1.  We would need to win about 10 with 2/3 draws and only 2 defeats to have any chance. I don't think we have any chance whatsoever, but would more than happily be proved wrong. I would take staying up comfortable with a few games left and mid table (with a bit of enjoyable football to watch - by us).

You silly tosser. You just cost me £20. 
 

 

881BBFA7-643F-4E83-A71B-FB6899EF0557.jpeg

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Thing is... relegation zone teams get average 1pt per game... top 6 average around 1.7

 

This means we move 2 points away from bottom 3 of we win on average. Compare that with top 6 we would need to hit 35 points from the last 15 games... bearing in mind we've lost 7 on the spin I can't see it though truly hope for you having a dabble that it comes in.

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25 minutes ago, TheReds said:

If you honestly think there is any chance whatsoever, then just bet the top 6 finish at 200/1.  We would need to win about 10 with 2/3 draws and only 2 defeats to have any chance. I don't think we have any chance whatsoever, but would more than happily be proved wrong. I would take staying up comfortable with a few games left and mid table (with a bit of enjoyable football to watch - by us).

If we had been stuttering over the past few games then with Pearson taking charge, there would be a chance.

However, we’ve not been so much stuttering as collapsing, with almost no vestige of professionalism, cohesion, teamwork, tactics, basic ability, fight or desire - some players appear to want to be anywhere but on the pitch in  City shirt!. I'm not saying that Pearson cannot stop the rot, but from where we are now and to go on the sort of run required to get into the top 6 would be a herculean task. It might be within Pearson’s capabilities, but Im not sure it is achievable with the players so obviously devoid of any confidence.

Like you, I'm hopeful that NP can do what is needed so as to secure championship football for next season.

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1 minute ago, Roger Red Hat said:

I don't think, with all the injuries at the moment, we've got the necessary quality to do more than stay up. Hopefully comfortably.

Don't worry Pearson has bought his boots with him.

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17 minutes ago, Super said:

Absolutely laughable talking about the playoffs.

I don’t think anyone could seriously talk about the playoffs. 

I’m just fortunate enough to think that £20 is jack shit and £4,020 is quite a lot!

Edited by Fordy62
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4 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

I don’t think anyone could seriously talk about the playoffs. 

I’m just fortunate enough to think that £20 is jack shit and £4,020 is quite a lot!

It would make us bigger than Villa! 

Yes his is heavily laced with sarcasm 

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The bookies odds reflect the very powerful analytical tools at their disposal. Their back offices are  awash with many of the finest mathematicians and statisticians money can hire. It's like 'expected goals' on steroids. It's also why every day you see the occasional, 'anomalous' odds in the market; teams apparently hugely overpriced, or more often teams hugely underpriced such mugs like me who do astronomical short odds accas weekly have hard luck stories. Look closely and you'll note the underpriced teams (normally home sides) are usually the ones who go down early doors to bigger scores.

The amazing thing is if you get to see their forecast data at first you'll struggle to see how that compares to either league table or form, yet over the season their early doors predictions are, more often than not, bang on the money. That's why they win and we don't.

 

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36 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

I don’t think anyone could seriously talk about the playoffs. 

I’m just fortunate enough to think that £20 is jack shit and £4,020 is quite a lot!

 

u1bkB_.gif

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35 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

The bookies odds reflect the very powerful analytical tools at their disposal. Their back offices are  awash with many of the finest mathematicians and statisticians money can hire. It's like 'expected goals' on steroids. It's also why every day you see the occasional, 'anomalous' odds in the market; teams apparently hugely overpriced, or more often teams hugely underpriced such mugs like me who do astronomical short odds accas weekly have hard luck stories. Look closely and you'll note the underpriced teams (normally home sides) are usually the ones who go down early doors to bigger scores.

The amazing thing is if you get to see their forecast data at first you'll struggle to see how that compares to either league table or form, yet over the season their early doors predictions are, more often than not, bang on the money. That's why they win and we don't.

 

I think looking at Sky bets odds on top 6 are really interesting, Blackburn, QPR, Preston and ourselves are all on the same amount of points yet Blackburn 8/1, QPR 12/1, Preston 50/1 and us 150/1. Blackburn having lost 4 in a row as well and Preston 4 of last 5.

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28 minutes ago, Lrrr said:

I think looking at Sky bets odds on top 6 are really interesting, Blackburn, QPR, Preston and ourselves are all on the same amount of points yet Blackburn 8/1, QPR 12/1, Preston 50/1 and us 150/1. Blackburn having lost 4 in a row as well and Preston 4 of last 5.

In its simplest form the bookies have a matrix that shows the ratio of goals scored/conceded when one would expect that to happen, but also where one might only have a chance of scoring/conceding and also where goals have been scored and conceded when one wouldn't expect that to happen. It's amazing the variability across clubs with almost identical form and league position. They say the league table doesn't lie, save in the short-term it can.  I recall being shown one such table when we were under one of our better runs under Johnson and the discussion passed to how it closely reflected what we'd been watching with our own eyes. The Bookies correctly had us finishing out of the running (when league position and fan talk indicated play-offs at minimum,) because we were performing only on average as forecast defensively though woefully underperforming offensively (we were close to the bottom of the table even though we are nicking results.) Villa were the opposite, a marginal improvement in their defensive position had huge impact on results.

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Absolutely no chance of playoffs: I thought it when I understood that our depleted team was not going to have enough players back, and surely after all the recents KO it has become even more clear.

Our realistic aim now is to secure survival. Doing it in a relatively short time would give Pearson the possibility to make experiments with an eye on next season (providing he'll remain).

Edited by Dan Robin
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On 23/02/2021 at 16:10, Super said:

Absolutely laughable talking about the playoffs.

I agree in terms of strongly feeling it would need an extended Lazarus type of revival in form. Very happy to get to 50 points with say half a dozen games left or so, so he can have a good look at what he has.

I suppose from a betting perspective it is not whether it is laughable, but whether given what we know is it 200/1 laughable? I stuck a cheeky £5 on because I think the odds were out of kilter, not because given the binary choice I think we will do it.

Edited by cityexile
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15 minutes ago, myol'man said:

That's what they said to Joe Jordan in 88

With a great game at Walsall followed by a nightmare back there a few days later with David “****ing” Kelly. No trip to Wembley in those days, just 5 of us students bundled into a Mini, then standing in their end -twice!

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I think the focus will soon be to finish in the top half, or even top 10. We’ve a couple more tricky games but a better run of fixtures in March and April which with a new manager bounce could see us pick up a few wins.

Win the next two and people will start getting giddy though (myself included!)

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41 minutes ago, mozo said:

I think the focus will soon be to finish in the top half, or even top 10. We’ve a couple more tricky games but a better run of fixtures in March and April which with a new manager bounce could see us pick up a few wins.

Win the next two and people will start getting giddy though (myself included!)

Imagine what my cash out (cash back) will be then!

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