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7 points or 13


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Phileas; you are so right. Time for SL to take a different approach but he already knows that and his interview is so clear that he knew this was coming once everything else was in place. One major this forum exaggerates frustrations is we know so little compared to the owners/senior managemnet - like most things in life.

If we were to become the next WBA/Norwich that would probably be the next natural step but there's a HUGE amount of work and fortune (being injury free) before that would happen

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13 hours ago, Monkeh said:

Lots of football to be played

But continue to berate those that were likely worried about the disgraceful form and performances.......your posts are.starting to get tedious,

And like those who appear when things go wrong you will disappear and when things go well you will be hear calling for those who disagree to be banned again....just give it a rest  

Blige, someone's tired 😀

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2 hours ago, supercidered said:

Blige, someone's tired 😀

Not tired I don't like people calling others to be banned because they express concern with performance and form,

If you want that join the people's Republic of gaschat,

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12 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Not tired I don't like people calling others to be banned because they express concern with performance and form,

If you want that join the people's Republic of gaschat,

Fair enough.

I like the reference 'People's Republic of Gaschat'. I think I will nick that and use it as my own in future! 😀

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5 hours ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Cardiff, Boro, Forest, and City top 4? You are not watching Norwich, Watford etc? 

I diagnose "aged footy manager man love". 

Treatment : darkened room for a bit

Well, you were calling for someone proven and experienced on here last summer - you mentioned Hughton enough times as someone you’d like as our manager - now you dismiss that ilk of manager as simply ‘aged footy manager’ - mind you I do remember you announcing on here that Villa would definitely get relegated last season and you also told the forum that Dean Smith had been sacked and suggested LJ may have been in the running to fill the Villa hot seat - yet it seems Villa is still a premier league club and Dean Smith is still their manager - so, with due respect, I’ll stand by my views on Warnock, McCarthy, Hughton and Pearson ... have a good one ...

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8 hours ago, real_bristol said:

Two years ago Aston Villa were 10th P33 with 44pts and 7pts off 6th. They were promoted.

We can only get to 11th with a win on Saturday but we would be P33 with 45pts so a point better off than villa were. 

This is 100% doable, with injured players coming back and the Covid-weird season I don’t think anyone would completely rule a side out of the race with NP at the helm. 

The problem won't be the points so much as making up the goal difference. 

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Getting into he play offs would require something superhuman and a turnaround of biblical proportions - particularly from where we have been over the last 6- 8 weeks.

Given what we saw on Tuesday night, avoiding a relegation fight would appear to take something less drastic.

Surely, the main priority over the remainder of the season ( apart from avoiding relegation, obviously) is that we do enough to convince Nigel Pearson that we are a club worth sticking with, because he can see that he can achieve something special with Bristol City. By the same token it will also convince SL, in particular, that NP is exactly the manager we need to fulfil his dream and everything he has worked towards for so long ( some would argue for too long)

 

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30 minutes ago, downendcity said:

Getting into he play offs would require something superhuman and a turnaround of biblical proportions - particularly from where we have been over the last 6- 8 weeks.

Given what we saw on Tuesday night, avoiding a relegation fight would appear to take something less drastic.

Surely, the main priority over the remainder of the season ( apart from avoiding relegation, obviously) is that we do enough to convince Nigel Pearson that we are a club worth sticking with, because he can see that he can achieve something special with Bristol City. By the same token it will also convince SL, in particular, that NP is exactly the manager we need to fulfil his dream and everything he has worked towards for so long ( some would argue for too long)

 

We lost 7 in a row I believe we need to win 7 in a row if we want to be in the playoff mix, 1 down 6 to go

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Just now, Monkeh said:

We lost 7 in a row I believe we need to win 7 in a row if we want to be in the playoff mix, 1 down 6 to go

Ive mentioned on another thread that had we been stuttering for the last 6-8 weeks then it is quite possible that Pearson could achieve a spectacular turnaround.

We've not been stuttering, we’ve collapsed and were on life support. If NP turns this around and we go on such a winning run to get into the play offs  I’d say it would surpass anything any City manager has achieved in my lifetime,

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The thing is, it's 7 points*, but that isn't all we need to get to 6th.

We need to improve, but we also need 6 teams above us to falter. We need to score at least 7 points more than each of the 6 teams above us. Aka we need to outperform Cardiff by 0.5 points per game, for the rest of the season. We need to outperform the other 5 of those 6 teams (Millwall, Stoke, Boro, Barnsley, Bournemouth) as well, but not so dramatically.

Currently all but one of those teams has scored more than us, all have conceded far fewer than us, 3 are unbeaten over the past 5 games, and all have vastly superior xG, goal difference, and every other metric that indicates a decent team. We also need to, of course, at a minimum, match or outstrip the performance of every team below us.

It's not that I think it's impossible for us to get the 7 points, it's that I think it's incredibly unlikely that so many well performing squads will fail spectacularly enough for us to sneak past them.

Likewise, now that we have made the change in manager, I don't think we will see 8 or so teams below us accumulate points at a rate that's enough to overhaul us, so we won't go down either.

I suspect that we will trot along at around 1.3 - 1.5 points per game, the equivalent of about 6 or 7 more wins, and so landing us on 60 - 63 points and pretty much plum in the middle of the table.

That's what is most likely in my opinion, looking at the numbers as they are now, and as they would need to be over the next few weeks. Mid-table is not the only thing that's possible, but this is why you're getting 250/1, and the bookies are happy to take your £20.

*8 really, but let's assume the goal difference would sort itself out if the miracle happened

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8 hours ago, Countryfile said:

We go into the closing part of the season with the squad slowly being strengthened.

Its possible that Baker, Walsh and COD may soon be added to the players available for selection.

Add in the Nige affect which will surely be an additional 4 or 6 points then a top six finish isn’t beyond us.

However after the trauma of recent weeks I’d settle for a strong top half finish and some early recruitment to set us up for a decent crack at promotion next season when hopefully we’ll all be able to get down the Gate.

Cheers, Nige

How would half fit Baker Walsh and COD help??

You make them sound like stellar championship players.  They're not.

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4 minutes ago, The Bard said:

How would half fit Baker Walsh and COD help??

You make them sound like stellar championship players.  They're not.

Baker is, he's a fantastic championship defender and has proven that,

Cod if played in the correct position is useful we've seen it

Walsh is totally unproven so you have a point on that one

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If you look at our fixtures we need to get to the point where we have 1.5 points per game soon.   Eg if we had 57 points after 38 games, we would in all likeliness be in contention.  We would therefore need to win 5 or 6 of the next 7.

Is that likely? No.  Is it possible? Yes as apart from Saturday's game they are eminently winnable. 

I don't think we'll do much more than push upwards and maybe finish 8th within 5 or 6 points of the play offs but it isn't impossible.  It also wasn't impossible that we would have continued on the downward spiral and ended up in a relegation battle.

 

 

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1 minute ago, The Bard said:

If you look at our fixtures we need to get to the point where we have 1.5 points per game soon.   Eg if we had 57 points after 38 games, we would in all likeliness be in contention.  We would therefore need to win 5 or 6 of the next 7.

Is that likely? No.  Is it possible? Yes as apart from Saturday's game they are eminently winnable. 

I don't think we'll do much more than push upwards and maybe finish 8th within 5 or 6 points of the play offs but it isn't impossible.  It also wasn't impossible that we would have continued on the downward spiral and ended up in a relegation battle.

 

 

In this league, if you can win 4/5, 5/6, you leap several teams.

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6 minutes ago, The Bard said:

Is that likely? No.  Is it possible? Yes as apart from Saturday's game they are eminently winnable. 

 

I looked at the fixture list after my earlier post. It's certainly not the hardest run in we could have. of the 14, I'd say 9 or 10 are against teams who have had poor seasons. They aren't necessarily in the bottom half of the table, but their xG numbers, goal difference etc is poor. That suggests to me that some of these games are more easily winnable than the block of games we've just gone through.

Interestingly this includes Saturday's opponents Swansea. They are flying high in the table but sit around 12th or 14th in most xG tables. Suggests they might be overperforming and so may have been a little fortunate in some games. So maybe we shouldn't be too surprised if we turn them over on Saturday.

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6th is currently on for 70 points and to get that we need 2 points per game including games against the 4 clubs we started the season so well against.

Not to say we are gonna do it but if we won 2 or 3 in row then the gap would be about 3 or 4 points and we would be at least in the conversation

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11 hours ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Whilst an unlikely promotion would be fantastic.. in the scheme of things it might not be the best time. This isn't Pearson's squad, it's clearly imbalanced and has huge weaknesses. If we miraculously went up, it would take an enormous effort in the summer to create a squad that could stand a chance of survival. 

In the long term we'd probably be better off having a good go over the next couple of seasons, assuming Pearson stays and is able to build a squad. 

Interesting thing to take into consideration is the amount of players OOC this summer and Fam leaving on a free 

If we did by some amazing fortune get promoted then NP could build a very good squad with a sizeable transfer kitty

Even if we don’t go up, this summer is going to see a lot of coming and goings and I would like to think Pearson would be able to draw players to the club that LJ & DH had no chance of attracting 

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5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

The thing is, it's 7 points*, but that isn't all we need to get to 6th.

We need to improve, but we also need 6 teams above us to falter. We need to score at least 7 points more than each of the 6 teams above us. Aka we need to outperform Cardiff by 0.5 points per game, for the rest of the season. We need to outperform the other 5 of those 6 teams (Millwall, Stoke, Boro, Barnsley, Bournemouth) as well, but not so dramatically.

Currently all but one of those teams has scored more than us, all have conceded far fewer than us, 3 are unbeaten over the past 5 games, and all have vastly superior xG, goal difference, and every other metric that indicates a decent team. We also need to, of course, at a minimum, match or outstrip the performance of every team below us.

It's not that I think it's impossible for us to get the 7 points, it's that I think it's incredibly unlikely that so many well performing squads will fail spectacularly enough for us to sneak past them.

Likewise, now that we have made the change in manager, I don't think we will see 8 or so teams below us accumulate points at a rate that's enough to overhaul us, so we won't go down either.

I suspect that we will trot along at around 1.3 - 1.5 points per game, the equivalent of about 6 or 7 more wins, and so landing us on 60 - 63 points and pretty much plum in the middle of the table.

That's what is most likely in my opinion, looking at the numbers as they are now, and as they would need to be over the next few weeks. Mid-table is not the only thing that's possible, but this is why you're getting 250/1, and the bookies are happy to take your £20.

*8 really, but let's assume the goal difference would sort itself out if the miracle happened

In a normal season I would agree with everything you have stated but this is a weird and different season to any other 

Playing every 3-4 days causes teams to pick up injuries, suspensions, tiredness and loss of form. Some have been luckier than others but with the amount of games left in this season I still think there are going to be some significant twists and turns 

I just hope we have had our bad luck and are about to go on one of our winning streaks that pushes us into a play off place in the last day of the season and we do a Villa against the odds 😁

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11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I looked at the fixture list after my earlier post. It's certainly not the hardest run in we could have. of the 14, I'd say 9 or 10 are against teams who have had poor seasons. They aren't necessarily in the bottom half of the table, but their xG numbers, goal difference etc is poor. That suggests to me that some of these games are more easily winnable than the block of games we've just gone through.

Interestingly this includes Saturday's opponents Swansea. They are flying high in the table but sit around 12th or 14th in most xG tables. Suggests they might be overperforming and so may have been a little fortunate in some games. So maybe we shouldn't be too surprised if we turn them over on Saturday.

Apparently they were poor against Coventry yesterday and fortunate to get 3 points 

There for the taking I reckon 

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3 minutes ago, INCRED said:

Apparently they were poor against Coventry yesterday and fortunate to get 3 points 

There for the taking I reckon 

They are low scoring for a top 6 team, but they are up there thanks to conceding only 19 goals, mad low. That seems to be down to the fact they've allowed a division lowest 79 shots on target against their goal (for contrast we're sitting at 131). So they've effectively stifled the midfield, stopped the supply to the strikers, and prevented shots from even being taken, so meaning they don't need to block shots or rely on their keeper like we do. If we can attack the way we did in that first 30 minutes on Tuesday, then our clinical strikers might find a way past Woodman. 

On paper it will be a low scoring, tight game, and that means rogue tackles and loose refereeing has potential to make a greater impact. 

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5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

The thing is, it's 7 points*, but that isn't all we need to get to 6th.

We need to improve, but we also need 6 teams above us to falter. We need to score at least 7 points more than each of the 6 teams above us. Aka we need to outperform Cardiff by 0.5 points per game, for the rest of the season. We need to outperform the other 5 of those 6 teams (Millwall, Stoke, Boro, Barnsley, Bournemouth) as well, but not so dramatically.

Currently all but one of those teams has scored more than us, all have conceded far fewer than us, 3 are unbeaten over the past 5 games, and all have vastly superior xG, goal difference, and every other metric that indicates a decent team. We also need to, of course, at a minimum, match or outstrip the performance of every team below us.

It's not that I think it's impossible for us to get the 7 points, it's that I think it's incredibly unlikely that so many well performing squads will fail spectacularly enough for us to sneak past them.

Likewise, now that we have made the change in manager, I don't think we will see 8 or so teams below us accumulate points at a rate that's enough to overhaul us, so we won't go down either.

I suspect that we will trot along at around 1.3 - 1.5 points per game, the equivalent of about 6 or 7 more wins, and so landing us on 60 - 63 points and pretty much plum in the middle of the table.

That's what is most likely in my opinion, looking at the numbers as they are now, and as they would need to be over the next few weeks. Mid-table is not the only thing that's possible, but this is why you're getting 250/1, and the bookies are happy to take your £20.

*8 really, but let's assume the goal difference would sort itself out if the miracle happened

I think we'll be happy if we finish 10th and playoff are not gonna happen, but...

Don't forget that we have Bournemouth, Millwall and Stoke to play so chipping away at their leads is much more plausible.

We;ve seen why Boro might not be a major threat to the playoffs this season, so that means we need two of Barnsley, Millwall and Cardiff to have considerable downturn in form, which is the part that starts stretching the plausibility a bit.

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2 minutes ago, mozo said:

I think we'll be happy if we finish 10th and playoff are not gonna happen, but...

Don't forget that we have Bournemouth, Millwall and Stoke to play so chipping away at their leads is much more plausible.

We;ve seen why Boro might not be a major threat to the playoffs this season, so that means we need two of Barnsley, Millwall and Cardiff to have considerable downturn in form, which is the part that starts stretching the plausibility a bit.

Agreed, and @INCRED is also correct that this season is a bit of a wild card.

If we can get points against Birmingham, Rotherham, Coventry, Sheff Wed and Wycombe - 5 of the weakest teams in the league, then that sets us up well to nick a few more elsewhere.

But I'd still not stake my own money on a top 6 finish. IMO top ten would be a good achievement given how the first two-thirds of the season has gone.

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3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Agreed, and @INCRED is also correct that this season is a bit of a wild card.

If we can get points against Birmingham, Rotherham, Coventry, Sheff Wed and Wycombe - 5 of the weakest teams in the league, then that sets us up well to nick a few more elsewhere.

But I'd still not stake my own money on a top 6 finish. IMO top ten would be a good achievement given how the first two-thirds of the season has gone.

Yeah and I’ll add to that top ten finish... no drama behind the scenes, so that Pearson staying is a no-brainer for all concerned!

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On 24/02/2021 at 15:59, steveybadger said:

Just how big will that new manager bounce need to be?! 42 points now, so need another 11 wins from 14 I reckon. Or to almost double our current number of wins, from very roughly a third of the season. Very, very tough ask.

But to be positive, the last 2 times we’ve been promoted we had a very strong second half of the previous season. So if we can build up a head of steam in the games left, then who knows next year? Momentum.

You won't need 75 PTS to make the play offs.... 71 I seem to recall being a common number.

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Many have been calling for an exp manager for years now, through record breaking losing runs and poor manager appointments. A step up the ladder for sure.

This is a major turn in direction and I really hope this direction is maintianed, the sinical side of me has a slight worry about the short length of his contract and the ST selling time of year and hope that we dont go backwards in the summer.

We will lose games and win games but there will be no complaints from me for the rest of this season, as we have at last changed our direction and have a manager who will take no sh1te from anyone, we do need to back him though however and get him settled in for the fore-seeable future to make strides forward.

So great we are off the roundabout but I will be watching and hoping we dont get back on it.

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