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22A
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 Being a pessimist; City's recent improvement in performances and results, won't go unnoticed. Which of our players will we lose to higher placed / wealthier clubs. Who do you reckon we'll struggle to keep?

Being an optimist; City's recent improvement in performances and results, won't go unnoticed. Will we be more of an attraction to players we wish to sign? Which players are realistic targets for City?

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In respect of the first point, it doesn’t really work that way.

Any decent scout would look at players and work out whether they’re good or not, or a fit, regardless of form. It could be they’re playing in a crap system or with bad tactics for example (Prime Van Basten would have struggled under DH). Case in point -Adam Nagy has been excellent for two games because he’s been being used properly. That won’t put him on scouts radars any more than the previous 20 games, and if it does, they’re not scouts you want.

So, I don’t think the last two games will make a lick of difference in respect of demand for our players.

I do think the second point is more than valid. Players want to play for a good team that’s winning, and the more the form continues, the more attractive we are. Add in Pearson, the infrastructure, training ground etc and I’d like to think we’d be a decent pull this summer 

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45 minutes ago, 22A said:

 Being a pessimist; City's recent improvement in performances and results, won't go unnoticed. Which of our players will we lose to higher placed / wealthier clubs. Who do you reckon we'll struggle to keep?

Being an optimist; City's recent improvement in performances and results, won't go unnoticed. Will we be more of an attraction to players we wish to sign? Which players are realistic targets for City?

I doubt that two wins after losing seven on the bounce is hardly going to cause MA’s phone to be ringing off the hook.

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Bentley will be sold in the summer absolutely, he deserves it. No one else will be in demand, not that they arent good players but no one is gonna pay us what we would want for Kalas as an example.

I expect a lot of the out of contract players to be released and Pearsons picks (if he stays) coming in mainly on free transfers.

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Bentley and Diedhiou will certainly be on the radar of other clubs. Potentially Nagy who is class when played correctly.

With incomings, it will most likely depend what is happening with FFP with COVID considered. As our heavy loss announced in 2018 has now dropped off, there could be room for investment.

It’s certainly a very good time to spend if so, the quality of players available for free will be higher than normal due to clubs struggles to meet wage demands. The financial struggles of other clubs combined with the quality available on free transfers will ultimately drive down the price of everyone.

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2 minutes ago, Fammyfan said:

Bentley and Diedhiou will certainly be on the radar of other clubs. Potentially Nagy who is class when played correctly.

With incomings, it will most likely depend what is happening with FFP with COVID considered. As our heavy loss announced in 2018 has now dropped off, there could be room for investment.

It’s certainly a very good time to spend if so, the quality of players available for free will be higher than normal due to clubs struggles to meet wage demands. The financial struggles of other clubs combined with the quality available on free transfers will ultimately drive down the price of everyone.

Unfortunately replaced by a bigger one this season (20/21)!!

I think you’re right about free transfers / lower fees / lower wages.

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Bentley is an interesting one, he’s certainly a superb keeper and has earned us lots of points this season.

Would he prefer to be a number two at a PL club or very much number one with us especially if NP stays and we have a strong run from now until the end of the season.

I very much hope it’s the latter.

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41 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Players will come here because we pay good wages. 

On top of that if Pearson is here then that'll probably help. 

Our reputation of not holding players back from bigger things will only help too.

This sums it up perfectly and concisely. 

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11 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Unfortunately replaced by a bigger one this season (20/21)!!

I think you’re right about free transfers / lower fees / lower wages.

We had a £25m loss which will drop off next season.

My understanding is that we currently have:

17/18 (announced 2019) - loss of £25m

18/19 (announced 2020) - profit of £10m

19/20 (announced 2021) - loss of £10m

Whilst there will be a further loss when the 20/21 report is announced, it may be relaxed to some extent due to COVID. Have no idea how this will be done though, only clubs that have made large transfer sells or potentially parachute payments could avoid FFP punishments.

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58 minutes ago, Fammyfan said:

We had a £25m loss which will drop off next season.

My understanding is that we currently have:

17/18 (announced 2019) - loss of £25m

18/19 (announced 2020) - profit of £10m

19/20 (announced 2021) - loss of £10m

Whilst there will be a further loss when the 20/21 report is announced, it may be relaxed to some extent due to COVID. Have no idea how this will be done though, only clubs that have made large transfer sells or potentially parachute payments could avoid FFP punishments.

It won’t be relaxed, rules have been set already.  19/20 and 20/21 will be added together and halved.  I estimate we are currently on for a £35m loss this season....so £45m over 2 years / 2 = £22.5m.  What I’ve not seen is how future years get accounted for?  @Mr Popodopolous - you read anything?

Basically EFL, with these rules, have pretty much said that clubs have this season to adjust!!!

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3 hours ago, Silvio Dante said:

In respect of the first point, it doesn’t really work that way.

Any decent scout would look at players and work out whether they’re good or not, or a fit, regardless of form. It could be they’re playing in a crap system or with bad tactics for example (Prime Van Basten would have struggled under DH). Case in point -Adam Nagy has been excellent for two games because he’s been being used properly. That won’t put him on scouts radars any more than the previous 20 games, and if it does, they’re not scouts you want.

So, I don’t think the last two games will make a lick of difference in respect of demand for our players.

I do think the second point is more than valid. Players want to play for a good team that’s winning, and the more the form continues, the more attractive we are. Add in Pearson, the infrastructure, training ground etc and I’d like to think we’d be a decent pull this summer 

While I agree there are a few things that have changed.
Bentley is a better keeper now than when he joined. £2m looks a snip. He commands his area better now and his confidence is right up there. Must surely have changed some peoples minds about him.
Vyner is 10 times the player from early season and would surely be on some watch lists.
Bakinson has shown flashes of a real Championship CMF.
Totally agree that the last 2 games mean little, but over the season one or two have impressed.

 

33 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It won’t be relaxed, rules have been set already.  19/20 and 20/21 will be added together and halved.  I estimate we are currently on for a £35m loss this season....so £45m over 2 years / 2 = £22.5m.  What I’ve not seen is how future years get accounted for?  @Mr Popodopolous - you read anything?

Basically EFL, with these rules, have pretty much said that clubs have this season to adjust!!!

I've no idea what the FFP rules will throw up, but I seem to remember 2 things of interest .
There was a quote early on this season or end of last, about clubs being given some leeway because of COVID, add that to Lansdown mentioning some FFP manoeuvre room. Who knows what that will mean in real terms, what I do believe though. Steve will back Pearson this summer(if we all stay friends) and he will stay within rules (whatever they are).

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SL’s comments a week or so ago suggests that there was a lot of movement for us this summer from an FFP perspective.

I’d expect City to be very active this summer, especially with many OOC likely to leave.....

Potentially very exciting times for us with Big Nige in charge 🤞🤞

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2 hours ago, 1960maaan said:

While I agree there are a few things that have changed.
Bentley is a better keeper now than when he joined. £2m looks a snip. He commands his area better now and his confidence is right up there. Must surely have changed some peoples minds about him.
Vyner is 10 times the player from early season and would surely be on some watch lists.
Bakinson has shown flashes of a real Championship CMF.
Totally agree that the last 2 games mean little, but over the season one or two have impressed.

Bakinson has now had 5 decent games on the trot.  The only issue is that he’s started only two of them. (27,23,32,90,90).  Just need to manage him carefully over the coming weeks.  Mix him with Han-Noah to give him some rest.

I've no idea what the FFP rules will throw up, but I seem to remember 2 things of interest .
There was a quote early on this season or end of last, about clubs being given some leeway because of COVID, add that to Lansdown mentioning some FFP manoeuvre room. Who knows what that will mean in real terms, what I do believe though. Steve will back Pearson this summer(if we all stay friends) and he will stay within rules (whatever they are).

there are some COVID costs that are allowed to be excluded from ffp, but we are talking things like costs of testing, not loss of revenue.  One thing they did throw in was loss of transfer revenue, but the rules were very strict.  For example if you had a bit of £5m a year ago, but then sold for £1m, you might be able to offset some of that, but it was based around written offers, just speculative valuations.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

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8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Mix him with Han-Noah to give him some rest.

I think Massengo has been criminally under used, worse given that we've been so stretched by injury. Be interesting to see how NP rotates players.

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5 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

Bentley will be sold in the summer absolutely, he deserves it. No one else will be in demand, not that they arent good players but no one is gonna pay us what we would want for Kalas as an example.

I expect a lot of the out of contract players to be released and Pearsons picks (if he stays) coming in mainly on free transfers.

I really think he would be in a shot of an england call up if he was playing in the prem, wouldn't blame him in the slightest for moving on.

As you say, deserves it, and is likely in the prime of his career now.

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3 hours ago, Loosey Boy said:

SL’s comments a week or so ago suggests that there was a lot of movement for us this summer from an FFP perspective.

I’d expect City to be very active this summer, especially with many OOC likely to leave.....

Potentially very exciting times for us with Big Nige in charge 🤞🤞

NP will over the coming weeks assess who he wants to keep and then he will tap into his extensive contacts and bring in players that he thinks will do the job required 

Im sure SL will offer him a contract and NP will want backing from SL 

All very intriguing and exciting as I think we will see a different  calibre of players coming in over the summer 

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With respect to FFP and Covid points raised by @Davefevs and @1960maaan

My understanding is that as of now it's:

2017/18- £25m (or thereabouts loss) minus £5m for general estimates of Allowable Costs. £20m FFP loss.

2018/19- £10m (or thereabouts) Profit- then add on £5m in Allowable Costs as per the general Estimates- that makes us £5m down out of £39m in FFP terms- or a £15m FFP profit for 2018/19.

2019/20- £10m (or thereabouts) Loss. Minus the usual £5m for Allowable Costs as per the general estimates- £5m FFP loss.

@Hxj said a little while ago they reckoned £4m in Covid allowable costs for last season in addition to , Swiss Ramble estimated it at £2m- shall we split the difference at £3m? I don't know anyway, our 3 year position to 2019/20 I make it very good. That would be a £1m-3m FFP loss.

£20m - £15m + £1m or £3m=So far an FFP loss of £6-8m going into 2019/20.

Aggregate FFP/P&S Loss- well we can lose a hell of a lot, we don't know what costs will be excluded for FFP purposes.

I believe an Accounting Loss of £68m in Bristol City Holdings is what we can lose this season- and I'm not even properly factoring in the £2-4m either, keeping it relatively simple.

The good news is that moving forward that combined loss will be halved, that £25m (£20m in P&S terms) will disappear off the books! The new starting point will be the £10m profit- £15m.

The adding and halving of this and last season will neutralise some of the damage caused by Covid.

Add in £10m (as per Dave's estimates) coming off the books in Combined Amortisation and Wages this summer- think it was £5m of each from memory? There will be some headroom but it could be a one hit only type Scenario.

There is also the Impairment Scenario too, but I think the EFL might have mechanisms in place for recalculations if sold at a higher cost e.g.

These Scenarios are Positive but there is also a notable Downside risk.

If for example the merging and averaging of the two seasons into one is a once only, then it is theoretically possible that this season we might have been hindered by £25m Loss remaining on the books one year more but if it reverts to normal ie the usual 3 years, be unable to utilise in full our major Profit in 2018/19 as it'd be 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22- this would be bad! Disgraceful actually.

However it doesn't seem to be certain which path it will take following this season- I'm assuming the rollup will stay until such time as it is exhausted but can we say that with certainty?

This Scenario seems unlikely happy to say, not least as the last time I saw the Regulations suggested when required, FFI would be T+1 as opposed to the regular T+2, but I'm unsure we can predict with certainty.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

there are some COVID costs that are allowed to be excluded from ffp, but we are talking things like costs of testing, not loss of revenue.  One thing they did throw in was loss of transfer revenue, but the rules were very strict.  For example if you had a bit of £5m a year ago, but then sold for £1m, you might be able to offset some of that, but it was based around written offers, just speculative valuations.

Unbelievable lost revenue is not taken into account for FFP. Can’t help but think this will be reassessed come the end of the season.

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1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

With respect to FFP and Covid points raised by @Davefevs and @1960maaan

My understanding is that as of now it's:

2017/18- £25m (or thereabouts loss) minus £5m for general estimates of Allowable Costs. £20m FFP loss.

2018/19- £10m (or thereabouts) Profit- then add on £5m in Allowable Costs as per the general Estimates- that makes us £5m down out of £39m in FFP terms- or a £15m FFP profit for 2018/19.

2019/20- £10m (or thereabouts) Loss. Minus the usual £5m for Allowable Costs as per the general estimates- £5m FFP loss.

@Hxj said a little while ago they reckoned £4m in Covid allowable costs for last season in addition to , Swiss Ramble estimated it at £2m- shall we split the difference at £3m? I don't know anyway, our 3 year position to 2019/20 I make it very good. That would be a £1m-3m FFP loss.

£20m - £15m + £1m or £3m=So far an FFP loss of £6-8m going into 2019/20.

Aggregate FFP/P&S Loss- well we can lose a hell of a lot, we don't know what costs will be excluded for FFP purposes.

I believe an Accounting Loss of £68m in Bristol City Holdings is what we can lose this season- and I'm not even properly factoring in the £2-4m either, keeping it relatively simple.

The good news is that moving forward that combined loss will be halved, that £25m (£20m in P&S terms) will disappear off the books! The new starting point will be the £10m profit- £15m.

The adding and halving of this and last season will neutralise some of the damage caused by Covid.

Add in £10m (as per Dave's estimates) coming off the books in Combined Amortisation and Wages this summer- think it was £5m of each from memory? There will be some headroom but it could be a one hit only type Scenario.

There is also the Impairment Scenario too, but I think the EFL might have mechanisms in place for recalculations if sold at a higher cost e.g.

These Scenarios are Positive but there is also a notable Downside risk.

If for example the merging and averaging of the two seasons into one is a once only, then it is theoretically possible that this season we might have been hindered by £25m Loss remaining on the books one year more but if it reverts to normal ie the usual 3 years, be unable to utilise in full our major Profit in 2018/19 as it'd be 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22- this would be bad! Disgraceful actually.

However it doesn't seem to be certain which path it will take following this season- I'm assuming the rollup will stay until such time as it is exhausted but can we say that with certainty?

This Scenario seems unlikely happy to say, not least as the last time I saw the Regulations suggested when required, FFI would be T+1 as opposed to the regular T+2, but I'm unsure we can predict with certainty.

Thanks.

My view is that we have FFP headroom, but need to be mindful of it hanging around for a few years of FFP submissions.

10 minutes ago, Red Alert said:

Unbelievable lost revenue is not taken into account for FFP. Can’t help but think this will be reassessed come the end of the season.

I see it as the EFL partly using it to make it a reset for their clubs.  Reassessing / relaxing will send out the wrong message imho.  As a good club financially (playing safely with FFP), I suspect SL is even more keen that MA doesn’t let the “gamblers” get away with it.  Hence why he’d like a salary cap, or another way of levelling the playing field.

Thats how I see it anyway.

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How much is Bentley worth? I was having a debate on the weekend with 2 friends, who’s opinion i respect, and they both thought easily 10m, i thought it would be quite a bit less than that personally. As far as I’m aware only 2 championship keepers have gone for over 10m. 

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16 minutes ago, Rob k said:

How much is Bentley worth? I was having a debate on the weekend with 2 friends, who’s opinion i respect, and they both thought easily 10m, i thought it would be quite a bit less than that personally. As far as I’m aware only 2 championship keepers have gone for over 10m. 

How long left on his contract? If 2 years, I’d want 10m, if 1 year, half that. 

Best keeper in this league and at this point in time, probably better than Allison. 

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11 hours ago, Red Alert said:

Unbelievable lost revenue is not taken into account for FFP. Can’t help but think this will be reassessed come the end of the season.

It is unbelievable, the text of the EFL regulation says it is.

1.1.7  COVID-19 Costs means lost revenues and/or exceptional costs incurred by a Club that are directly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic and that are identified and calculated in accordance with such guidance as issued by the Board;

The arguments will be about what that includes, but the principle is agreed.

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I'd expect West Ham to take a look at Bentley. 

Fabianski is getting older, and has struggled with injuries recently. Randolph and Martin are both older options as well. 

West Ham have a history of shopping in the championship and may feel Bentley is suitable for them. 

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12 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

With respect to FFP and Covid points raised by @Davefevs and @1960maaan

My understanding is that as of now it's:

2017/18- £25m (or thereabouts loss) minus £5m for general estimates of Allowable Costs. £20m FFP loss.

2018/19- £10m (or thereabouts) Profit- then add on £5m in Allowable Costs as per the general Estimates- that makes us £5m down out of £39m in FFP terms- or a £15m FFP profit for 2018/19.

2019/20- £10m (or thereabouts) Loss. Minus the usual £5m for Allowable Costs as per the general estimates- £5m FFP loss.

@Hxj said a little while ago they reckoned £4m in Covid allowable costs for last season in addition to , Swiss Ramble estimated it at £2m- shall we split the difference at £3m? I don't know anyway, our 3 year position to 2019/20 I make it very good. That would be a £1m-3m FFP loss.

£20m - £15m + £1m or £3m=So far an FFP loss of £6-8m going into 2019/20.

Aggregate FFP/P&S Loss- well we can lose a hell of a lot, we don't know what costs will be excluded for FFP purposes.

I believe an Accounting Loss of £68m in Bristol City Holdings is what we can lose this season- and I'm not even properly factoring in the £2-4m either, keeping it relatively simple.

The good news is that moving forward that combined loss will be halved, that £25m (£20m in P&S terms) will disappear off the books! The new starting point will be the £10m profit- £15m.

The adding and halving of this and last season will neutralise some of the damage caused by Covid.

Add in £10m (as per Dave's estimates) coming off the books in Combined Amortisation and Wages this summer- think it was £5m of each from memory? There will be some headroom but it could be a one hit only type Scenario.

There is also the Impairment Scenario too, but I think the EFL might have mechanisms in place for recalculations if sold at a higher cost e.g.

These Scenarios are Positive but there is also a notable Downside risk.

If for example the merging and averaging of the two seasons into one is a once only, then it is theoretically possible that this season we might have been hindered by £25m Loss remaining on the books one year more but if it reverts to normal ie the usual 3 years, be unable to utilise in full our major Profit in 2018/19 as it'd be 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22- this would be bad! Disgraceful actually.

However it doesn't seem to be certain which path it will take following this season- I'm assuming the rollup will stay until such time as it is exhausted but can we say that with certainty?

This Scenario seems unlikely happy to say, not least as the last time I saw the Regulations suggested when required, FFI would be T+1 as opposed to the regular T+2, but I'm unsure we can predict with certainty.

@Mr Popodopolous

I get roughly the same FFP numbers for to 2018/19 ending up with a FFP loss of say £5million to carry forward to 2019/20/21.  The total FFP loss that can be made in that period will be £68 million.  The accounting loss in that period could be many millions higher, and the club will still meet FFP due to the regulations, due to the adjustments.

As regards future years I can't see anything other happening than 2019/20/21 always been merged as one, otherwise I suspect that most clubs will break the rules in 2021/22.  So the club's worst case position going into 2021/22 will be 2018/19 FFP profit £15 million, 2019/20/21 loss £34 million, 2021/22 available loss £20 million, then of course in 2022/23 it all goes SWFC/DCFC/RFC/BCFC(.com).

 

 

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22 hours ago, Silvio Dante said:

In respect of the first point, it doesn’t really work that way.

Any decent scout would look at players and work out whether they’re good or not, or a fit, regardless of form. It could be they’re playing in a crap system or with bad tactics for example (Prime Van Basten would have struggled under DH). Case in point -Adam Nagy has been excellent for two games because he’s been being used properly. That won’t put him on scouts radars any more than the previous 20 games, and if it does, they’re not scouts you want.

So, I don’t think the last two games will make a lick of difference in respect of demand for our players.

I do think the second point is more than valid. Players want to play for a good team that’s winning, and the more the form continues, the more attractive we are. Add in Pearson, the infrastructure, training ground etc and I’d like to think we’d be a decent pull this summer 

I like to think I’m a decent pull all the time.

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