So much to do before August 7th ....

[headhunter]

https://foreverbristolcity.podbean.com/e/there-is-a-mountain-to-climb/  FBC Podcast 

In this recording of last night's FBC Podcast Ian & I discuss a disappointing showing against a robust Rotherham team who, if they do well in their games in hand, should still be playing Championship football next season.

Saturday afternoon showed the mountainous task that faces Nigel Pearson should he take on the challenge of what is clearly going to be a massive close season period. This process must start with getting Pearson signed up NOW. He seems to be making all the noises that suggest this is a formality but until he does the review of the squad and off the pitch set up will drift aimlessly on.

Rotherham would like to play our lily livered group every week as, despite a promising start, City looked like 2nd best as competitors. Another Bentley error saw City trail at half time and I wouldn't mind betting that our most salable asset's transfer value has halved in recent weeks as he has shown the type of dip in form that led to Brentford releasing him.

There were good performances from HNM & Liam Walsh but in the pod I challenged Ian on how that can be as within the same sentence we're talking about a lack of service to the front men. That said, Palmer wasn't as good as of late and O'Dowda was at his most infuriatingly inconsistent until going off in tears near the end with what looked like a recurrence of the hamstring injury that kept him out for weeks. This latter event again throws into question the competence of the medical staff.

We question the rationale behind signing Danny Simpson. Brunt didn't work out and Lansbury seemed senseless a couple of months ago. This latest [intended] signing seems even more bizarre. Some contributors to the pod even mused that next season could see us lining up with a Troy Deeney, Andre Gray [6 years too late!!] strike force if Pearson goes on to sign others he knows!!!

Never mind the out of contract players, how many of those in contract would Pearson want to keep?

The new season starts on 7th August - that is 139 days away. Before then the club will be looking at finances which will show a £30m loss for the year to end of May and even now they don't know what income will look like with no plans announced for the reopening of grounds to meaningful attendances, not 4-5000.

It is worrying but also exciting and pivotal to the latter is signing Pearson on a proper contract - 3 Years. We said on the podcast this must be done between now and Stoke at home on Good Friday such that the final 8 games are played with next season in mind in every respect - leave out Fam, try Wells in the centre, blood more of the youngsters etc. etc. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Davefevs]

I honestly didn’t see us as weak yesterday, I thought we dished out a fair bit, and got a bit back.  Diedhiou actually fought quite hard first half and then I thought he was unfairly tackled 3 or 4 times second half without being given.

I certain didn’t see players not engaging, I didn’t see dangled legs, I thought there was decent commitment.

We conceded two poor (keeper errors) goals however, the first one, the all-important one, was while we were well in the ascendancy - without creating tonnes. And that clouds views.  This was in no way similar to the game up north earlier this season.

Up to the final 25 yards of the pitch we were decent enough, but where it counted we let ourselves down.

We got set-pieces in good positions but didn’t take advantage.  That was very frustrating.  Palmer has been taking good corners but didn’t take any yesterday.

[headhunter]

46 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I honestly didn’t see us as weak yesterday, I thought we dished out a fair bit, and got a bit back.  Diedhiou actually fought quite hard first half and then I thought he was unfairly tackled 3 or 4 times second half without being given.

I certain didn’t see players not engaging, I didn’t see dangled legs, I thought there was decent commitment.

We conceded two poor (keeper errors) goals however, the first one, the all-important one, was while we were well in the ascendancy - without creating tonnes. And that clouds views.  This was in no way similar to the game up north earlier this season.

Up to the final 25 yards of the pitch we were decent enough, but where it counted we let ourselves down.

We got set-pieces in good positions but didn’t take advantage.  That was very frustrating.  Palmer has been taking good corners but didn’t take any yesterday.

So what would you do between now and the end of the season to create a platform for going forward?

I see this as a 5 man midfield next season: Walsh [assume we still have him], Williams, Massengo, Palmer, O'Dowda. That leaves Bakinson, Nagy & Vyner in the matchday 18, the latter able to slot into the back 4. 

Up front it is one for me - that could be Wells or Britton or an upgrade on Fam who I think should now just appear from the bench in the remainder of games. We can still have Weimann and I've forgotten Semenyo, then again he could play wide left in that midfield quoted above to the exclusion of O'Dowda who I don't rate and only included as he is the only conventional winger. Up front we also have a plethora of youngsters from which one could come through.

In defence for me it is Kalas plus 3 new faces - I'm not convinced by deSilva at all. Again, there are plenty of youngsters who could feature in the matchday squad without being starters [Towler, Cundy, Harper etc.]

Absolutely loads to get sorted in the next 138 days!!! Nothing can start until the appointment of Pearson is confirmed.

 

[Hampshire Red]

Headhunter, using rugb y language where everything is mountainous, massive (para 2 of post) etc so i dont necessarily agree these jobs to do are anything other than 'business as usual' work for a manager and, as he rightly told twot Magregor - his private life is very important and it was none of our business. I like the way NP differentiates between work and private life as most of us do; unlike politicians and the NHS who 'work, non-stop, tirlessly, 24 hrs a day to....X Y Z'

I agree with the vast majority of your points about players and like you, i find it interesting to see if NP will want to play what he thinks are his best 11+subs in the remaining games to then see how many new players he wants OR if he will prefer to consider the remaining games as ones we can lose at the expense of seeing every fit player on our books in a Championship game. This awful home run (worst in 40/50 years) under Holden/Pearson does really concern me even if we win away. NP should recall LJ lost his job for this reason

As you rightly say a lot to do, COYRs

[Davefevs]

Priority is to quickly assess which of the OOC players you want to retain.

Walsh is the obvious one.  I’m still waiting to see what he can do, but it’s likely he will be a part of our future.  NP talking him up, makes me think he will try and tie him down and Walsh will want to.  I don’t think he’ll get a better contract than here.

Baker too if he can get 4/5/6 apps between now and the end of the season.  He will need to take a wage cut though.

Weimann offered a new deal (rather than option exercised) and Cundy’s option exercised.  Mariappa given another year.

So that’s the starting point for the summer.  Back to now....ignoring Simpson incoming (potentially).  I’d start playing those who will be here next season.

Hoping that over the next 10 days or so, we see a couple return, Baker (as above - he can’t be far away), Nurse (played u23s), and that Kalas is ok too.

I wouldn’t be playing Diedhiou....think I’ve made that clear in various threads!

 

 

[GrahamC]

24 minutes ago, headhunter said:

So what would you do between now and the end of the season to create a platform for going forward?

I see this as a 5 man midfield next season: Walsh [assume we still have him], Williams, Massengo, Palmer, O'Dowda. That leaves Bakinson, Nagy & Vyner in the matchday 18, the latter able to slot into the back 4. 

Up front it is one for me - that could be Wells or Britton or an upgrade on Fam who I think should now just appear from the bench in the remainder of games. We can still have Weimann and I've forgotten Semenyo, then again he could play wide left in that midfield quoted above to the exclusion of O'Dowda who I don't rate and only included as he is the only conventional winger. Up front we also have a plethora of youngsters from which one could come through.

In defence for me it is Kalas plus 3 new faces - I'm not convinced by deSilva at all. Again, there are plenty of youngsters who could feature in the matchday squad without being starters [Towler, Cundy, Harper etc.]

Absolutely loads to get sorted in the next 138 days!!! Nothing can start until the appointment of Pearson is confirmed.

 

Think that quoted 5 man midfield is a million miles away from a top six one.

Walsh has started less than a dozen Championship games, Massengo is still for me a squad player at this level, Williams would be coming off the back of a season where he started 1 game & O’Dowda & Palmer are inconsistent, though NP has definitely got more out of the latter than previously.

We badly need another experienced, proven Championship standard option & I don’t mean Lansbury. Have a feeling that Nagy & possibly Bakinson may not make NP’s cut.

At the back I expect Mariappa to be kept on but we certainly need a new first choice RB & even with Vyner & Mariappa, another CB option. Left back is very difficult, Dasilva has a really poor availability record & Pring will be 24 next season, so if he isn’t up to being his deputy you wonder why he’s kept on.

Up front is where I expect NP to use Weimann & with Martin, Wells & Semenyo all under contract, unless one of the 30 somethings moves on, I can only see one addition here.

Despite all the claims elsewhere of 12+ signings we are only probably looking at 7 in and then 14 or so out.

[Phileas Fogg]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Priority is to quickly assess which of the OOC players you want to retain.

Walsh is the obvious one.  I’m still waiting to see what he can do, but it’s likely he will be a part of our future.  NP talking him up, makes me think he will try and tie him down and Walsh will want to.  I don’t think he’ll get a better contract than here.

Baker too if he can get 4/5/6 apps between now and the end of the season.  He will need to take a wage cut though.

Weimann offered a new deal (rather than option exercised) and Cundy’s option exercised.  Mariappa given another year.

So that’s the starting point for the summer.  Back to now....ignoring Simpson incoming (potentially).  I’d start playing those who will be here next season.

Hoping that over the next 10 days or so, we see a couple return, Baker (as above - he can’t be far away), Nurse (played u23s), and that Kalas is ok too.

I wouldn’t be playing Diedhiou....think I’ve made that clear in various threads!

 

 

I get the impression he likes Walsh. He was impressed with him in the u23 game and has played him as much as realistic since then.

I know people get criticised for being hasty on Walsh, but my gut feeling is that he's got something about him and we should tie him down. I appreciate I haven't watched him play that much, but from what I have seen he appears to have vision, awareness and poise that is indicative of a good standard of player. 

[Sleepy1968]

6 hours ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I get the impression he likes Walsh. He was impressed with him in the u23 game and has played him as much as realistic since then.

I know people get criticised for being hasty on Walsh, but my gut feeling is that he's got something about him and we should tie him down. I appreciate I haven't watched him play that much, but from what I have seen he appears to have vision, awareness and poise that is indicative of a good standard of player. 

Yep. He's got the parts of the game that you really can't coach. Fair play to NP for stroking his ego a bit - as long as it doesn't go too far.: we don't want him demanding stupid money.

[1960maaan]

7 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Think that quoted 5 man midfield is a million miles away from a top six one.

Walsh has started less than a dozen Championship games, Massengo is still for me a squad player at this level, Williams would be coming off the back of a season where he started 1 game & O’Dowda & Palmer are inconsistent, though NP has definitely got more out of the latter than previously.

Walsh was a top performer in L1, exactly the sort of player we would look to sign. Plus he does have some Championship experience. 
Massengo is finding his feet, and even at 19 he looks strong enough and will settle with games. I agree a squad player ATM.
Williams has missed a year, but did look good at this level previously, and looks a good foil for Walsh.
COD has been hampered (like so many) with injury, looked decent when he gets a run.
Palmer , funny one. I'm a fan, but since he's worked harder, his Radar seems a little off. His passing is nowhere near where it was, not been helped by having a static Fam up top.

We badly need another experienced, proven Championship standard option & I don’t mean Lansbury. Have a feeling that Nagy & possibly Bakinson may not make NP’s cut.

Lansbury is not the missing piece. Bakinson has so many good parts to his game, but those lapses and moments where he gives away a lay pass will not go down well with NP. I do think he could be a good player, needs to cut out the mistakes because almost every time he gave the ball away earlier in the season, it lead to a chance for the opposition. Nagy, if he can focus his running and work, be more efficient and less energetic he might be a good fit for us, I think you're right though.

At the back I expect Mariappa to be kept on but we certainly need a new first choice RB & even with Vyner & Mariappa, another CB option. Left back is very difficult, Dasilva has a really poor availability record & Pring will be 24 next season, so if he isn’t up to being his deputy you wonder why he’s kept on.

I don't rate Mariappa , drives me mad with stupid errors. That said I think he may well get a year. We do need a RB urgently & I agree about Pring, but with limited funds I would guess we would be looking at JD & cover from Pring, Nurse etc. I like Pring from what I've seen, whether he can step up a level who knows.

Up front is where I expect NP to use Weimann & with Martin, Wells & Semenyo all under contract, unless one of the 30 somethings moves on, I can only see one addition here.

I'm not sure we will see any new faces up front. 

Despite all the claims elsewhere of 12+ signings we are only probably looking at 7 in and then 14 or so out.

Going to be a big & tough summer. Not sure there will be much money to spend , even if FFP allows it. 
We need a RB. If Baker and Marippa get deals we already have Vyner and maybe Towler steps up, which would be handy having another left sided defender option. I think it would make sense to give Rowe a year, covers several positions. So that's 3 renewals and a new RB. I honestly doubt much more will happen, unless Lansdown sees a way round it, then I think he will back the manager as he usually does.
This all relies on how Pearson sees the squad, he will have his own ideas, but I don't see how he does a big rebuild with the financial constraints and FFP . It will take all his Managerial magic to get a Challenging squad together under the current circumstances. 

 

[GrahamC]

3 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

 

I think that far fewer will stay than you do.

At present I honestly think we will extend Weimann’s deal, probably offer Mariappa a year & Walsh two years & that might well be it.

If we moved on Wollacott, Gilmartin, Hunt, Baker, Baldwin, Rowe, Watkins, Adelakun, Lansbury, Paterson, Diedhiou, Hinds & then Mawson & Sessegnon go back to Fulham, that is a huge amount of wages to play with, especially in a time of Covid. Think a couple of first year pros, Webb, Opi Edwards & Nurse have deals that end, too.

If we move on anyone else, Nagy or Moore say, that is pretty wholesale change, largely financed by those out of contract.

[robin_unreliant]

Presumably though the total wage budget will be massively affected by covid? If ST sales drop and crowds are still restricted until, say, we are past the forecast new peak next winter, there may be a lot less to spend. After all, those still in contract are still going to eat up way more than our incoming revenue aren't they? 

[1960maaan]

15 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I think that far fewer will stay than you do.

At present I honestly think we will extend Weimann’s deal, probably offer Mariappa a year & Walsh two years & that might well be it.

If we moved on Wollacott, Gilmartin, Hunt, Baker, Baldwin, Rowe, Watkins, Adelakun, Lansbury, Paterson, Diedhiou, Hinds & then Mawson & Sessegnon go back to Fulham, that is a huge amount of wages to play with, especially in a time of Covid. Think a couple of first year pros, Webb, Opi Edwards & Nurse have deals that end, too.

If we move on anyone else, Nagy or Moore say, that is pretty wholesale change, largely financed by those out of contract.

Even if all those go, it's money saved not earned . Our wages were ( I think ) 110% of income, that has to be reduced anyway. Anyone coming in would have to be OOC otherwise fees paid out would impact on funds again unless we make money from sales. 

Gonna need some juggling that's for sure. Maybe Steve can sell the ground to the Rugby club 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

Even if all those go, it's money saved not earned . Our wages were ( I think ) 110% of income, that has to be reduced anyway. Anyone coming in would have to be OOC otherwise fees paid out would impact on funds again unless we make money from sales. 

Gonna need some juggling that's for sure. Maybe Steve can sell the ground to the Rugby club 

By my estimates, letting all the club owned OOC players go would save £5m p.a. in wages.

[robin_unreliant]

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

By my estimates, letting all the club owned OOC players go would save £5m p.a. in wages.

But surely that is much less than the revenue we have we lost due to covid? No certainty that we will be back to normal next season at this time too. 

[GrahamC]

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

Even if all those go, it's money saved not earned . Our wages were ( I think ) 110% of income, that has to be reduced anyway. Anyone coming in would have to be OOC otherwise fees paid out would impact on funds again unless we make money from sales. 

Gonna need some juggling that's for sure. Maybe Steve can sell the ground to the Rugby club 

I appreciate that but if we knock £5m off of it and bring in say 6 players & release 14, we are then going to have a smaller wage bill when compared to now.

We will have a working figure for next year’s wages & with the exception of the sides coming down with parachute payments everyone is going to be struggling to offer higher wages, aren’t they?

[Davefevs]

In effect, we are saving £100k per week off the wage bill.

We need to reign in the £15-20k p.w. contracts.  

We haven’t see 20/21s finances yet....but I’m estimating £30m(ish) losses.

You would imagine playing budget will be lower, but that NP will be allowed to use what he brings in, whether that be fees or wages.  Might resort to loans too.

[Major Isewater]

18 hours ago, Hampshire Red said:

NP should recall LJ lost his job for this reason

Lee Johnson lost his job because him and ‘ the plot’ became strangers.

Not winning at home was just a by product of his  desperation. 

[1960maaan]

9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

By my estimates, letting all the club owned OOC players go would save £5m p.a. in wages.

I had it higher than that, you probably have better figures though. Even that, if my very loose calculations are near, take us to around 80% of income spent on wages.  What was the target? 75% ? We would still have to sign several players. If my Google search & your figures are close, that's a third of the wage bill saved, that is big.

 

9 hours ago, GrahamC said:

I appreciate that but if we knock £5m off of it and bring in say 6 players & release 14, we are then going to have a smaller wage bill when compared to now.

We will have a working figure for next year’s wages & with the exception of the sides coming down with parachute payments everyone is going to be struggling to offer higher wages, aren’t they?

Those 6 players would need to improve the squad, and while if we do some good wheeling/dealing , they wouldn't be cheap, maybe cheap-er though. 

Lansdown suggested there would be funds available, so that's promising. How that stacks up, or works I don't know , but if Pearson is given the gig long term you would expect him to be backed otherwise it's almost a pointless appointment. 

Can't remember how the parachute payments work now, didn't the rules change?
Apparently Newcastle don't have relegation clauses in their players contracts. If others have been that lax (doubtful) it's potentially better for us. This summer is going to be interesting, no one will have a sure idea where the land lies for wages.

Just found this, how close it is I don't know....

https://salarysport.com/football/sky-bet-championship/bristol-city/

Woolacott   £39k
Gilmartin,    £37k
Hunt,           £675
Baker,         £990k
Baldwin,      £36k
Rowe,         £187k
Watkins,      no figure
Adelakun,   no figure
Lansbury,   no figure
Paterson,    £370k
Diedhiou,    £1m
Hinds         no figures
PLUS;
Mawson      £1.8m
Sessegnon £83k

Figures are yearly. That is roughly , £5.2 plus the 4 players not listed.

I still think Baker , if he proves his fitness of course, is worth some sort of contract, buts that's for Pearson to decide. This is using your possible releases @GrahamC. Taylor Moore and Nagy would reduce it by another £1.2m according to this site which could take it to £7m , almost half if this site is right.
We might get money for Nagy, not much maybe, not sure TM would have much value. Any funds for a new RB (or 2 ) and maybe LCB and whatever else NP sees as urgent, would have to come from Steve's piggybank. With all the population being offered a jab by June/July, there's a chance some crowds could be back in next season. I still think it will be reduced, social distancing and restrictions being around for a while yet, but it opens one income source. You have to question the conference market, at least in the short term so I think it will take a while to get to the levels of 3 years ago. 

10 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Might resort to loans too.

Good loans will be vital. No initial outlay, possibly part paying on wages. Teams from the Prem may be keen to get contracted players off the wage bill too, even with TV money they have been hit financially . The only problem is the rest of the Championship could be thinking similarly. 
We need NP at his best this summer.

[Clutton Caveman]

On 21/03/2021 at 10:27, Davefevs said:

I honestly didn’t see us as weak yesterday, I thought we dished out a fair bit, and got a bit back.  Diedhiou actually fought quite hard first half and then I thought he was unfairly tackled 3 or 4 times second half without being given.

I certain didn’t see players not engaging, I didn’t see dangled legs, I thought there was decent commitment.

We conceded two poor (keeper errors) goals however, the first one, the all-important one, was while we were well in the ascendancy - without creating tonnes. And that clouds views.  This was in no way similar to the game up north earlier this season.

Up to the final 25 yards of the pitch we were decent enough, but where it counted we let ourselves down.

We got set-pieces in good positions but didn’t take advantage.  That was very frustrating.  Palmer has been taking good corners but didn’t take any yesterday.

I think a lot of clubs are struggling at home because they have forgotten how to attack. We hear so much about " the press" now. It seems that the main attacking plan for many teams is to steal the ball from teams obsessed with playing out from the back and pinching goals. When they come up against a team that gets the ball upfield quickly, they have no plan B. We fall down in the last third because for 4 years we have concentrated on stopping teams from attacking and trying to nick a goal ourselves. We have players who can beat their man but instead mainly pass backwards or sideways. When we do somehow get into decent crossing positions we either hit an awful cross or have too few players ready to get on the end of a good ball. This negativity is so deeply engrained that NP is struggling to overcome it. For me our players have forgotten how to express themselves and actually enjoy their football. There seems to be a total lack of real passion and will to win.

At the very least we need a strong and vocal captain next year that is the on field leader and is not afraid to demand more of each player.

[INCRED]

Every successful team has a strong spine 

Goalkeeper, CBs, midfield 2 plus a striker 

That is what I think NP will focus on, who else is added in will be a mixture of what we have at the club under contract and who he brings in - loans/frees