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Why Pearson?


Berkshire Red

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4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I've read that post back and it's useless. I wrote it in the heat of the moment and compared 10 games to 11 without giving a per/game rating. Stupid and skewing the stats. I've gone back and looked at Holden's last 11 games against Pearson's. Unfortunately for Dean that 11th game was a pretty deserved 1-0 loss to PNE, so it hardly helps him. Red shade shows the better figure. I've also quantified the % change - for attacking stats you want a positive number and for defensive a negative is good.

image.png.13e1e3d4c93a35546ad76b884850da89.png

Essentially, because that PNE loss makes most of Holden's stats worse, my conclusion is actually broadly similar: Pearson has actually managed to get ever so slightly more out of the same players, despite the season winding down to nothing and despite the turbulence in the boardroom.

However, notwithstanding the improvements in raw totals, most interesting to me is that DH wins in both xG columns, but loses out to NP in every other metric (although total shots against is so marginal as to effectively be a tie). It suggests, to me, and I know many would disagree, that had we retained Holden until the end of the season we would have likely gained roughly the same number of points we have since we sacked him. We would not have been relegated.

Now of course there are many variables (injuries, strength of opponent etc) that can be used to say why that isn't true, and I am not saying that sacking Holden was the "wrong" decision*, but to me it's clear that Pearson has made only the most marginal of improvements in terms of final output. However, he is here now, and we have not regressed under his short tenure. With a window, some backing, pre-seasons and maybe some of his own backroom staff...well maybe we could get a top half or even top ten finish in 2021/22.

*the wrong decision was his appointment.

What Pearson has done is simply flatlined (over 11 games) when the end of Holden's tenure was suggesting a sharp decline (over six games?). It certainly isn't great, make no bones about that, but flatlining has at least all but guaranteed our survival and gives NP the opportunity to make changes, halt the decline and improve things.

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31 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Have a feeling Palmer is on thin ice now & that Wells would only play if Pearson felt he had to play a senior striker.

Personally I’d start Janneh over him, with Conway & Britton on the bench.

He clearly sees Vyner as a CB, though if Simpson isn’t fit then I have absolutely no idea who plays there, Sessegnon was truly dreadful last night & Hunt is obviously leaving.

Thought he was decent 1st half, but 2nd half  they pinged so many diags, all he could do was try to defend (pegged back) and hack balls forward under pressure.

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15 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

Some players not all. Its up to Managers and coaches to support their players and keep instilling that me and us mentality. Mr Pearson doesn't reward failure, he rewards poor behaviour. 

The team underperforms. Mr Pearson responds by selecting players with poor attitudes. The same players reaction on the pitch is poor. The team underperforms. Mr Pearson responds by repeating the same predictable cycle.

Where is his standard? What is the non negotiable? Where are his values? You can be shit, put in 50% but hey ho you will still get to play. Some tough disciplinarian he is.

People slag the players but here is poor performance, poor reaction, poor attitude being put on the park by the Manager. The psychology behind this is ludicrous. 

 

Yes, we are in a state where the club as a whole is "ludicrous" cannot disagree on that and we can talk about it all day long because there is enough evidence to do so. I think we are at a stage where we offer Pearson the job, agree sensible targets he has to meet, and write this season off as the absolute shambles it has been. He has to be judged in my view when he brings in players more aligned to his way of thinking and are sufficiently motivated. The group of players at BCFC currently would test the most decorated psychologist in my view as many of them have good reason to be de-motivated.

As you will know there are players who are "self motivated" and do not need the psychology training or whatever it is called to do the right thing, it's inherently in them because they are "winners" (there will be a cleverer psychological term for that mentality but you get me) players who would self-police the dressing room. Players who will call people out for costing their "team" a victory in a training session match.  I've seen them, played with them so I know they are out there...........unfortunately none of them have made their way in the direction of BS3.

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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Thought he was decent 1st half, but 2nd half  they pinged so many diags, all he could do was try to defend (pegged back) and hack balls forward under pressure.

Quite a few were better in the first half than second..

His attempt to prevent the guy on the back post for their goal was truly pathetic.

He then passed it to one of theirs who was left one on one with Kalas & his defending just before they scored again was comical.

If that was Hunt (who is not good enough either) there would be a meltdown on here.

On reflection if Simpson isn’t fit & even though he appears nailed on to get released, I might play Mariappa there, at least he can defend.

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3 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Quite a few were better in the first half than second..

His attempt to prevent the guy on the back post for their goal was truly pathetic.

He then passed it to one of theirs who was left one on one with Kalas & his defending just before they scored again was comical.

If that was Hunt (who is not good enough either) there would be a meltdown on here.

On reflection if Simpson isn’t fit & even though he appears nailed on to get released, I might play Mariappa there, at least he can defend.

Mariappa to CB, Zak to RB?

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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Mariappa to CB, Zak to RB?

Just thought if he sees Zak as a CB then keep him there.

Would say that of those who have lost their place (& saying that, I’d still release him) Mariappa is one of the more unfortunate.

Diedhiou & Wells have been poorer than he has in my opinion & stayed in, Hunt too.

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4 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

What Pearson has done is simply flatlined (over 11 games) when the end of Holden's tenure was suggesting a sharp decline (over six games?). It certainly isn't great, make no bones about that, but flatlining has at least all but guaranteed our survival and gives NP the opportunity to make changes, halt the decline and improve things.

Pretty much yeh. Personally I think the damage was done by the time Holden left. I maintain that we wouldn't have gone down - but simultaneously can see the sense in ditching Holden and getting Pearson in when we did for this extended pre-season review of the squad. Pearson is far from my favourite or ideal manager, but I'll support his appointment so long as it has a clear plan. 

We know we're going to see a lot of change both on and off the pitch this summer and I see no sense in adding a fourth manager in a year into that churn.

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1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Pretty much yeh. Personally I think the damage was done by the time Holden left. I maintain that we wouldn't have gone down - but simultaneously can see the sense in ditching Holden and getting Pearson in when we did for this extended pre-season review of the squad. Pearson is far from my favourite or ideal manager, but I'll support his appointment so long as it has a clear plan. 

We know we're going to see a lot of change both on and off the pitch this summer and I see no sense in adding a fourth manager in a year into that churn.

The fact that your sample over half a season basically shows us to be so poor whether we have inexperience or experience in charge shows that whatever the rights and wrongs of the respective managers we really do have a mediocre group of players that have been AVAILABLE to us over this period. The "get outplayed every week" mantra that gets trotted out on here, I'm as guilty as anyone, has actually been brought into sharp focus by your statistics. Results are the results but the performances have been awful for some time............and we've been building up to it for some time longer than that. You could have added possession stats, completed passes, pass accuracy percentages and any other stat you fancied and the results would be exactly the same.

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How is this even a topic? How can you judge a manager with players that dont suit his system or arnt even playing for the badge? 

For a manager to be successful anywhere they need time!

Didnt bloody gary johnson lose 9 in a row or something stupid when he came in to stop the rot? And the same with lee? 

The only person that deserves blame is the guy who signed all these players and didnt sort out their contracts! And hes f#$ing off to Ipswich 

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17 hours ago, Rossi the Robin said:

We would be down with Holden, let’s make that absolutely clear 

I mean mathematically this is just 100% untrue isn't it?

We had 42 points before Pearson came in. Had Holden managed the 11 league games Pearson has had and we had lost all 11 we would still not be in the relegation zone. 

Holden managed 18 wins 5 draws and 18 losses during his time with this same squad at City and this same squad managed 42 points this year under Holden before Pearson came in. Not really seen any improvements in performance under NP and over their times Holden managed to get better results with the same bunch over players.

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20 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Yes, we are in a state where the club as a whole is "ludicrous" cannot disagree on that and we can talk about it all day long because there is enough evidence to do so. I think we are at a stage where we offer Pearson the job, agree sensible targets he has to meet, and write this season off as the absolute shambles it has been. He has to be judged in my view when he brings in players more aligned to his way of thinking and are sufficiently motivated. The group of players at BCFC currently would test the most decorated psychologist in my view as many of them have good reason to be de-motivated.

As you will know there are players who are "self motivated" and do not need the psychology training or whatever it is called to do the right thing, it's inherently in them because they are "winners" (there will be a cleverer psychological term for that mentality but you get me) players who would self-police the dressing room. Players who will call people out for costing their "team" a victory in a training session match.  I've seen them, played with them so I know they are out there...........unfortunately none of them have made their way in the direction of BS3.

Bristol City employed Bill Beswick. If there were decorations he would have them. Big buzz words he uses are clarity, goal focus, big pictures .. Mr Johnson and Mr Pearson are fond of the word clarity. 

A term you can use for the players you refer to is cultural architects. They uphold expected behaviours under pressure and stress and remain in what is known as challenge state, they fight, they continue to uphold the expected behaviours. 

Mr Beswick will state that even the self motivating will be undermined by poor practice - lack of clarity, goal focus , lack of big picture and not adhering to your values. If a teams players do not trust those who coach and manage they have to be a special type of human to not be affected negatively.

Mr Pearson rewards poor attitude and performance. Goal focus? Clarity? Big picture? Trust? Mr Pearson can be judged now. Its not been good, or consistent. Bristol City create an environment that demotivates and its continuing under Mr Pearson.

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7 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

Bristol City employed Bill Beswick. If there were decorations he would have them. Big buzz words he uses are clarity, goal focus, big pictures .. Mr Johnson and Mr Pearson are fond of the word clarity. 

A term you can use for the players you refer to is cultural architects. They uphold expected behaviours under pressure and stress and remain in what is known as challenge state, they fight, they continue to uphold the expected behaviours. 

Mr Beswick will state that even the self motivating will be undermined by poor practice - lack of clarity, goal focus , lack of big picture and not adhering to your values. If a teams players do not trust those who coach and manage they have to be a special type of human to not be affected negatively.

Mr Pearson rewards poor attitude and performance. Goal focus? Clarity? Big picture? Trust? Mr Pearson can be judged now. Its not been good, or consistent. Bristol City create an environment that demotivates and its continuing under Mr Pearson.

What if Mr Pearson is being hamstrung from setting clarity, focus, etc....because of the uncertainty of his position.

What if he is trying to set that with half a group who have been told they have no future,

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1 minute ago, Cowshed said:

Bristol City employed Bill Beswick. If there were decorations he would have them. Big buzz words he uses are clarity, goal focus, big pictures .. Mr Johnson and Mr Pearson are fond of the word clarity. 

A term you can use for the players you refer to is cultural architects. They uphold expected behaviours under pressure and stress and remain in what is known as challenge state, they fight, they continue to uphold the expected behaviours. 

Mr Beswick will state that even the self motivating will be undermined by poor practice - lack of clarity, goal focus , lack of big picture and not adhering to your values. If a teams players do not trust those who coach and manage they have to be a special type of human to not be affected negatively.

Mr Pearson rewards poor attitude and performance. Goal focus? Clarity? Big picture? Trust? Mr Pearson can be judged now. Its not been good, or consistent. Bristol City create an environment that demotivates and its continuing under Mr Pearson.

He's currently doing that in your opinion which, unless you are in the know, is an educated guess based on what you see on the pitch. We do not know the ins and outs and whilst I wouldn't even have Fam in the squad there must be a reason why he is playing that we don't understand. We could write an essay backwards and forwards on whether our opinions on what is happening at the Gate are based on fact, opinion, are measured or biased (hence you have made a statement that you SUSPECT is fact and in a couple of cases I am inclined to agree with you but we cannot know this as fact this unless one of us is working inside the club or has insider information).

All the things you mention i.e. Goal Focus, Clarity, Big Picture and Trust are not easy to implement when you have been given a strictly short term contract with no clarity on anything further and, in the eyes of the players, you and they have pretty much achieved the main goal (safety) anyway. The circumstances at the club are really a perfect storm in my opinion with so many players demotivated for one reason or another and all the things you want to see need the appointment of the Manager to be made permanent as soon as possible.

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22 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

What if Mr Pearson is being hamstrung from setting clarity, focus, etc....because of the uncertainty of his position.

What if he is trying to set that with half a group who have been told they have no future,

What if ... Mr Pearson has a squad of players.

Amongst that some will have qualities Mr Pearson values. 

What do you value? What's your keystone behaviour? Whats your unacceptable? 

20 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

He's currently doing that in your opinion which, unless you are in the know, is an educated guess based on what you see on the pitch. We do not know the ins and outs and whilst I wouldn't even have Fam in the squad there must be a reason why he is playing that we don't understand. We could write an essay backwards and forwards on whether our opinions on what is happening at the Gate are based on fact, opinion, are measured or biased (hence you have made a statement that you SUSPECT is fact and in a couple of cases I am inclined to agree with you but we cannot know this as fact this unless one of us is working inside the club or has insider information).

All the things you mention i.e. Goal Focus, Clarity, Big Picture and Trust are not easy to implement when you have been given a strictly short term contract with no clarity on anything further and, in the eyes of the players, you and they have pretty much achieved the main goal (safety) anyway. The circumstances at the club are really a perfect storm in my opinion with so many players demotivated for one reason or another and all the things you want to see need the appointment of the Manager to be made permanent as soon as possible.

The things I mention are not so hard to implement.

The start is outlining acceptable behaviours and expectations. Many not just I you would not have Famara in the squad. There is a standard that is easy to implement right there. 

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28 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Have a look at the stats that @ExiledAjaxhas compiled. Forget the league position at the time (all that shows is we were shithousing points left, right and centre), those stats tell you EXACTLY what Pearson took over.

Aye, and I can show @Berkshire Red some 10 game rolling totals that show the absolute cliff we went off from about 10 games into the season. Not just points on the board. The whole house was falling down.

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1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Aye, and I can show @Berkshire Red some 10 game rolling totals that show the absolute cliff we went off from about 10 games into the season. Not just points on the board. The whole house was falling down.

It's great that you have this stuff because it proves, reassuringly, that many of us have seen what we thought we had seen particularly those of us who thought all along that we were nothing resembling top 6 material. This has been a long time coming and NP is left holding the baby right now.

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21 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Have a look at the stats that @ExiledAjaxhas compiled. Forget the league position at the time (all that shows is we were shithousing points left, right and centre), those stats tell you EXACTLY what Pearson took over.

The stats don't say much:

We scored 1 fewer goal?

We had 2 fewer shots on target?

The opposition had 1 more shot against us (159 against 158)

We picked up the same amount of points.

 

Now its worth looking into the detail of those points. Holdens last 11 games included playing teams positioned 5th, 4th, 1st and 2nd in his last 11. The average league position during Holdens last 11 games was (11.8) AVERAGE POSITION 12TH. 

Contrary to that, NP has played 2nd, 6th and then only one team in the top half (11th at the time). Average league position (15.8) 16th. Pearson has also managed to lose against teams positioned 15th, 15th, 22nd, 20th, 23rd, 24th. AVERAGE POSITION 16TH

Holdens league form over his first 10 games was WWDLDWWWWDL (21 Points)

Pearsons new manager boost over his first 10 games was WLLWDLLLDD (9 points)

Over Holdens duration as manager at City, his league performance was 14 Wins, 5 Draws, 16 Losses. Total points 47 in 35 games, average PPG 1.34 - 62 points a season.

Pearsons is 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses. Total points 9 in 11. Average 0.8 PPG - 38 points in a season. Worse than Wycombes season AVG.

Injuries aren't a new issue, Holden managed to produce better performance from the same players. Those he did have available to him were largely Lee Johnson signings, an inherited team. 

Nigel Pearson on the other hand has brought in Danny Simpson, a convicted woman abuser aged 34 and Henry Lansbury a 30 year old has been.

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1 hour ago, Northern Red said:

It literally takes no more than a couple of defeats for people to start screaming for the manager to be changed and for various players to never appear again.

TBF, it's been more than a couple of defeats, and we have given previous managers time.

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31 minutes ago, Berkshire Red said:

I mean mathematically this is just 100% untrue isn't it?

We had 42 points before Pearson came in. Had Holden managed the 11 league games Pearson has had and we had lost all 11 we would still not be in the relegation zone. 

Holden managed 18 wins 5 draws and 18 losses during his time with this same squad at City and this same squad managed 42 points this year under Holden before Pearson came in. Not really seen any improvements in performance under NP and over their times Holden managed to get better results with the same bunch over players.

Couldn’t see us winning v Swansea, Boro or Brum tbf  - we would have been in real trouble if he’d carried on 

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8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Aye, and I can show @Berkshire Red some 10 game rolling totals that show the absolute cliff we went off from about 10 games into the season. Not just points on the board. The whole house was falling down.

Radio Bristol summed it up last night, none of that Wycombe squad on paper would get into Citys starting line up. 

Why has Pearson the messiah not managed to get a point against Wycombe placed 24th in the table. Further to that, how has he only managed 1 point against teams positioned 22nd, 20th, 15th, 23rd and 24th at the time of playing them?

He's the manager. He trains them every week. He picks the squad. He motivates them. A good manager takes responsibility for the performance of their team. 

If it was Appleton who was on this form, or a league one manager would you be saying extend their contract and give them 4 transfer windows?

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5 minutes ago, Rossi the Robin said:

Couldn’t see us winning v Swansea, Boro or Brum tbf  - we would have been in real trouble if he’d carried on 

We got battered by Swansea and he wasn't manager vs Boro.

If you look at it with a sense of realism, yes we hit a bad run. But we wouldn't have lost every game from then on.

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23 minutes ago, Berkshire Red said:

The stats don't say much:

We scored 1 fewer goal?

We had 2 fewer shots on target?

The opposition had 1 more shot against us (159 against 158)

We picked up the same amount of points.

 

Now its worth looking into the detail of those points. Holdens last 11 games included playing teams positioned 5th, 4th, 1st and 2nd in his last 11. The average league position during Holdens last 11 games was (11.8) AVERAGE POSITION 12TH. 

Contrary to that, NP has played 2nd, 6th and then only one team in the top half (11th at the time). Average league position (15.8) 16th. Pearson has also managed to lose against teams positioned 15th, 15th, 22nd, 20th, 23rd, 24th. AVERAGE POSITION 16TH

Holdens league form over his first 10 games was WWDLDWWWWDL (21 Points)

Pearsons new manager boost over his first 10 games was WLLWDLLLDD (9 points)

Over Holdens duration as manager at City, his league performance was 14 Wins, 5 Draws, 16 Losses. Total points 47 in 35 games, average PPG 1.34 - 62 points a season.

Pearsons is 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses. Total points 9 in 11. Average 0.8 PPG - 38 points in a season. Worse than Wycombes season AVG.

Injuries aren't a new issue, Holden managed to produce better performance from the same players. Those he did have available to him were largely Lee Johnson signings, an inherited team. 

Nigel Pearson on the other hand has brought in Danny Simpson, a convicted woman abuser aged 34 and Henry Lansbury a 30 year old has been.

The stats show we are a poor side regardless of who is Manager. Once Teflon announced the details of the contract offer to Fam to Sky and that no other players out of contract would be offered anything we were done for. We will be a better side when NP brings his own players in. Your last sentence shows where you are coming from which is fine, your opinion.

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21 minutes ago, Berkshire Red said:

Radio Bristol summed it up last night, none of that Wycombe squad on paper would get into Citys starting line up. 

Why has Pearson the messiah not managed to get a point against Wycombe placed 24th in the table. Further to that, how has he only managed 1 point against teams positioned 22nd, 20th, 15th, 23rd and 24th at the time of playing them?

He's the manager. He trains them every week. He picks the squad. He motivates them. A good manager takes responsibility for the performance of their team. 

 

He has taken responsibility - because he's good like that. But explain to me how you motivate players who aren't interested in motivating themselves at this stage of the season, never mind care enough to be motivated by theuir manager. I understand the desire to hold someone to account for our piss poor form but you're looking the wrong way, imo. 

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1 hour ago, Northern Red said:

Regardless of whether Pearson is the right man or not, the last sentence of that is spot on and I'm amazed at the number of people who can't grasp it.

It literally takes no more than a couple of defeats for people to start screaming for the manager to be changed and for various players to never appear again. It's a completely unrealistic way to run a football club yet it happens constantly, not just our fans either.

The *** who should be hung for this mess is Ashton (his team, his side, his ownership), and the scumbag is now bailing out. Says it all.

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Another peak OTIB thread.

We're raising the bar yet again ?

My opinion has been written on several threads on this forum. The BLATANT fact is that the players aren't good enough. And that, for most of you is a bitter pill to swallow. Here's a list of their downfalls:

  1. They're not intelligent enough
  2. They're not strong enough (mentally and physically)
  3. They're not team players
  4. They're injury prone
  5. They're not positionally aware
  6. They're not playing for their lives
  7. They're not consistent enough
  8. They're paid way too much money
  9. They're not leaders
  10. They don't play for each other
  11. They believe their own hubris that they're world beaters
  12. Their psychologically weak
  13. They're too nice

What were you all expecting when Pearson took over? 11 wins from 11 and a playoff push?

I think that Ashton's DNA machine was broken - because that list is damning (and probably incomplete)

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1 hour ago, Berkshire Red said:

Radio Bristol summed it up last night, none of that Wycombe squad on paper would get into Citys starting line up. 

Why has Pearson the messiah not managed to get a point against Wycombe placed 24th in the table. Further to that, how has he only managed 1 point against teams positioned 22nd, 20th, 15th, 23rd and 24th at the time of playing them?

He's the manager. He trains them every week. He picks the squad. He motivates them. A good manager takes responsibility for the performance of their team. 

If it was Appleton who was on this form, or a league one manager would you be saying extend their contract and give them 4 transfer windows?

As I said in my post earlier today, there's all kinds of extra variables that you can factor into the statistical comparison I put up. I'll assume that the positions you've quoted are correct.

Honestly, I am trying to take a nuanced view. As I've said, I am not Pearson's biggest fan, I was cold on his appointment, and am far from enamoured at how he conducts himself in interviews, with the football we're watching, or with certain other matters, including some of the signings that you've mentioned in other posts.

However, I temper that negativity by looking at the stats, and the contract situations of the players, and the disturbance that Ashton's departure will be causing, and the ongoing injury issue. The bloke has still only been with us for two months, and inherited a real mess. That is the balance.

My conclusion, perhaps in a futile attempt to balance all of these things, is that his contract should be extended. I say that with caution, and with the fact in mind that I don't think it's good for us to have a fourth manager in a year. It's an opinion, a view, a thought. It's not fact and as with Holden we will only ever know the outcome of one reality.

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34 minutes ago, DaveInSA said:

Another peak OTIB thread.

We're raising the bar yet again ?

My opinion has been written on several threads on this forum. The BLATANT fact is that the players aren't good enough. And that, for most of you is a bitter pill to swallow. Here's a list of their downfalls:

  1. They're not intelligent enough
  2. They're not strong enough (mentally and physically)
  3. They're not team players
  4. They're injury prone
  5. They're not positionally aware
  6. They're not playing for their lives
  7. They're not consistent enough
  8. They're paid way too much money
  9. They're not leaders
  10. They don't play for each other
  11. They believe their own hubris that they're world beaters
  12. Their psychologically weak
  13. They're too nice

What were you all expecting when Pearson took over? 11 wins from 11 and a playoff push?

I think that Ashton's DNA machine was broken - because that list is damning (and probably incomplete)

Re. Point 7 they been consistent. Unfortunately consistently crap. 

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9 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

I'm surprised anyone would take an inherent dislike to Pearson - have to say the City fans I know have taken to Nige.

Fair enough, we're all different, but all the same to compare the extent of your negative feelings about him with Pulis seems extraordinary.

Do you consider it to be an important trait in a City manager that you think you'd enjoy drinking with him?

Which City managers of the last 20 years would you have fancied having a pint with?

 

I can’t necessarily explain it, the signing of Danny Simpson certainly didn’t help. But even before that, I simply didn’t think he came across as a particularly likeable bloke. Much in the same way I felt about Pulis when he first arrived. 

I wouldn’t say I consider it important to want to go for a drink with the manager no, as it’s never going to happen. But it would be nice to feel a slight warmth towards whoever is in the throne.

And to answer your last question, all of them, except unsurprisingly Pearson and Pulis. 

 

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