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Odds for relegation?


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30 minutes ago, Dottie said:

There are 4 other teams between derby & us, they won’t all win all of theirs. Think positive thoughts.  

They don't all need to win all of their games. 

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2 minutes ago, Alex_BCFC said:

46 points will probably be enough. We are safe.

Yes. but people don’t want to read that.

Derby have won 1 of their last 10, Rotherham bless them, have to play about every 3 days but some maniacs on here still think we will go down, even though 2 other sides can’t catch us no matter what.

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6 minutes ago, phantom said:

Don't worry, you won't be winning the lottery either 😉

Now that is a absolute mathematical certainty as I don't do the Lottery! 

A few weeks ago when William Hill had us at 500/1 for relegation I tried to put £200 on that which would have paid out £100,000. Their maximum stake though was £2.00...they're not stupid! Leicester City winning the Prem at 5000/1 spooked them badly. 

I'm not a gambler but £200 against a life changing amount would have been worth. What my state of mind would have been on the hypothetical last day of the season would have been though I don't know. Would you want City to go down even if it won you £100k...???

 

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When we win our first game of next season under Pearson with our new look team and the forum start talking about going the whole season unbeaten I'm going to fish this thread out 😀. If a week's a long time in politics, 4 months is an enormous amount of time in football.

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6 minutes ago, fgrsimon said:

Now that is a absolute mathematical certainty as I don't do the Lottery! 

A few weeks ago when William Hill had us at 500/1 for relegation I tried to put £200 on that which would have paid out £100,000. Their maximum stake though was £2.00...they're not stupid! Leicester City winning the Prem at 5000/1 spooked them badly. 

I'm not a gambler but £200 against a life changing amount would have been worth. What my state of mind would have been on the hypothetical last day of the season would have been though I don't know. Would you want City to go down even if it won you £100k...???

 

You are lucky as you’d have lost £200.

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6 minutes ago, fgrsimon said:

Now that is a absolute mathematical certainty as I don't do the Lottery! 

A few weeks ago when William Hill had us at 500/1 for relegation I tried to put £200 on that which would have paid out £100,000. Their maximum stake though was £2.00...they're not stupid! Leicester City winning the Prem at 5000/1 spooked them badly. 

I'm not a gambler but £200 against a life changing amount would have been worth. What my state of mind would have been on the hypothetical last day of the season would have been though I don't know. Would you want City to go down even if it won you £100k...???

 

You would have just been £200 light, City were never going down. Even with 14 first team players injured and 13 players out of contract we have only lost one of the last three league matches and that was to a last minute penalty.

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13 minutes ago, keflav said:

Look Rotherham Barnsley, Brentford, Blackburn, Luton & Cardiff lets be honest it will be a miracle if they win all of them given there recent form, if they do fair play to them..

we are in relegation form but we are unlikely to go down with so many teams below us, think everyone needs to calm down a bit. we just need to concentrate on getting season over and getting rid of 95% of the shit we have in the club.

Personally think its between Rotherham, Wednesday and Derby who goes down...

Derby play Weds at home on the last day. 

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Just now, Alex_BCFC said:

You are lucky as you’d have lost £200.

Happily my financial position is such that I can say that £200 is quite affordable. I've always been interested in the probability/stats side of Maths. Sadly it turned out that I wasn't much good at pure and applied maths and scraped a D at A Level. 

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1 hour ago, sglosbcfc said:

When we win our first game of next season under Pearson with our new look team and the forum start talking about going the whole season unbeaten I'm going to fish this thread out 😀. If a week's a long time in politics, 4 months is an enormous amount of time in football.

Well said. Some people on this forum refuse to accept how much hard work is going to be needed. Next season could well be a difficult one for us.

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1 hour ago, keflav said:

Look Rotherham have Barnsley, Brentford, Blackburn, Luton & Cardiff lets be honest it will be a miracle if they win all of them given there recent form, if they do fair play to them..

we are in relegation form but we are unlikely to go down with so many teams below us, think everyone needs to calm down a bit. we just need to concentrate on getting season over and getting rid of 95% of the shit we have in the club.

Personally think its between Rotherham, Wednesday and Derby who goes down...

And 4 of Rotherham's games are away including Brentford and Barnsley, they are going down. 

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7 hours ago, fgrsimon said:

Now that is a absolute mathematical certainty as I don't do the Lottery! 

A few weeks ago when William Hill had us at 500/1 for relegation I tried to put £200 on that which would have paid out £100,000. Their maximum stake though was £2.00...they're not stupid! Leicester City winning the Prem at 5000/1 spooked them badly. 

I'm not a gambler but £200 against a life changing amount would have been worth. What my state of mind would have been on the hypothetical last day of the season would have been though I don't know. Would you want City to go down even if it won you £100k...???

 

How any ‘fan’ can place a bet on their side getting relegated, is beyond me. I wouldn’t even consider it even if we were 100000/1. 

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7 hours ago, fgrsimon said:

Now that is a absolute mathematical certainty as I don't do the Lottery! 

A few weeks ago when William Hill had us at 500/1 for relegation I tried to put £200 on that which would have paid out £100,000. Their maximum stake though was £2.00...they're not stupid! Leicester City winning the Prem at 5000/1 spooked them badly. 

I'm not a gambler but £200 against a life changing amount would have been worth. What my state of mind would have been on the hypothetical last day of the season would have been though I don't know. Would you want City to go down even if it won you £100k...???

 

Yes.

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7 hours ago, slartibartfast said:

On that point, why are Cov above us in the table ? Identical records, even B comes before C.

It is head to head:

"Rules for classification: 1) Points; 2) Goal difference; 3) Number of goals scored; 4) Head-to-head results; 5) Wins; 6) Away goals; 7) Penalty points (sec 9.5); 8 ) 12-point sending off offences[70]"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–21_EFL_Championship

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Won’t happen this season but I wouldn’t bank against it next season. Long and slow steady declines are hard to turnaround, if anyone thinks Pearson confirmed as manager and a summer rebuild is going to address the rot that has been setting in this club for the last 3.5 years then they will be in for a surprise.

 

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9 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Yes. but people don’t want to read that.

Derby have won 1 of their last 10, Rotherham bless them, have to play about every 3 days but some maniacs on here still think we will go down, even though 2 other sides can’t catch us no matter what.

I’m not sure anyone thinks we will go down. The point some are making is that we still could.

I don’t think anyone, us included, expected the gas to spend just 20 minutes (but the last 20 minutes) of that glorious season in the bottom two of lge 2!

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2 hours ago, Red white and red said:

How any ‘fan’ can place a bet on their side getting relegated, is beyond me. I wouldn’t even consider it even if we were 100000/1. 

If someone offered me those odds on City to get relegated and I thought it was "on" and they allowed me to stick a tenner on it I would put the chance of potentially securing the future of my family before Steve Lansdown's FC every single day of the week. How anyone could put their fanaticism of our football club before their family is beyond me.................

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1 hour ago, Northern Red said:

It is head to head:

"Rules for classification: 1) Points; 2) Goal difference; 3) Number of goals scored; 4) Head-to-head results; 5) Wins; 6) Away goals; 7) Penalty points (sec 9.5); 8 ) 12-point sending off offences[70]"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–21_EFL_Championship

Would that happen with deciding promotion or relegation ?

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Best case scenario - we stay up, we get our injured troops back and they stay back. NP then has some actual talent to work with and supplement with astute signings. 

It could be far better than we fear, if all goes to plan. 

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Who remembers another Bristol club after playing a game away at Wycombe thinking there was no way they would get relegated. 😂

But in all seriousness Rotherham have blown their chance of staying up already, we are safe this year but the teams coming up next season I think will be stronger which will present a new challenge if we don't invest in the squad well.

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All this talk about the championship being a super competitive and exciting  league but with 3 games to go promotion is done, playoffs are done, 2 of the relegation spots are likely to have been taken and the only thing left if who goes down out of Derby and Rotherham!

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