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Semenyo


Kid in the Riot

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1 hour ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

We sell because we can get a better replacement, in the current market. Maybe more than one. Players who aren't learning on the job and who can fill a specific role immediately - what is Semenyo? A winger, a wide forward, a centre forward? Right here, right now we don't have the time to wait and found out, given the mess we're in.

In a way, he would be a victim of our circumstances if we decided to sell him, although moving to the Premier League would hardly be a hardship.

Personally, I'd sell because I find the idea of Semenyo ever scoring 10-15 goals fanciful in the extreme. 

Not against selling him. Just not for 3m. We are a development club and Semenyo can progress more with us. So we’d be selling in a buyer’s market with an asset that will probably get better. We sell a year too early often. Bryan and Reid understandable. Kodjia and Webster we had leverage. Brentford were able to keep Watkins for more than a season. We need to have a better balance. All that said, we do need to keep an open mind this summer. 
 

Also, who is replacing him? Someone from lower league? What would Semenyo’s stats look like at a Peterborough? It is easy to say sell and get a cheaper and better replacement but in practice it is much much harder. 

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He would be an excellent fit for Palace who like to play on the counter attack and have a good recent history of exciting wide players. The opportunity to learn from the likes of Zaha and Eze should not be sniffed at, particularly as players of a similar mould. Palace fans love raw, 'street' footballers and local lads. He grew up in relatively close proximity to Selhurst so I'm sure it will be attractive for him.

From our perspective, we're going through a rebuild with many players leaving the club with their contracts expiring. We shouldn't be selling a player who is developing into a key part of our squad for measly sum. He's got a lot to learn and is far from the finished product but he's one of the few entertaining players we have. The fees talked about are not enough for us to guarantee we can replace him with any quality. 

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While there's no doubt he's an athelte who might improve, I see a player that's neither a winger or striker. His two league goals were charge downs and he's consistently shown a lack of composure in key positions. Unlike late bloomers like Reid, Semenyo hasn't come through any academy from a young age and doesn't have that football brain. I thought the penny might have dropped in the Cup at Millwall, but we've seen nothing like that since. 

Personally, I would accept £3m+ for Semenyo in the current financial climate with several add-ons to ensure payment if he does develop. Those funds could be used to inject more quality over quantity back into the squad. If a deal could be done quickly and reinforcements could be in before the start of pre-season, it's a no-brainer for me. 

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1 hour ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

What’s happening to Semenyo happens to lots of young players.  Take Ivan Toney, huge promise but for his first six seasons he scored about 35 goals in total.  In the last three seasons he’s scored over seventy, playing in sides that understand him and with the benefit of growing experience.  Put Semenyo in the right set up and I think he’s quite capable of scoring 20 goals next season.  I wouldn’t consider selling him for a moment, but if he did go I would be very disappointed if he went for anything less than £10m.  But what I’d really like to see is us build a team around him, because I believe he’s going to surprise a lot of you.

I think he easily could surprise us but so much can happen in a player's career between 21 and 23/24. Best recent example I can think of is Saido Berahino. At Semenyo's age he was on the fringes of the England squad, being linked the various big Premier League clubs and looked like a fantastic talent. At 27 he's on the fringes of a Belgian football club.

And then you've got Connor Wickham. At 21 he'd just come good at Sunderland and was being touted for a place in England's 2014 World Cup squad. Seven years and multiple injuries later he's probably out at Palace this season and may struggle to find even a Championship side who'll take a chance.

I think Semenyo, if he stayed, could be a key player next season. But I also think - with every young player for a Championship club - it is a balance between keeping them and gambling on them fulfilling their potential or cashing in at the right moment and, if we get it wrong, we could find we've a player whose annoyed that his chance at the top flight has passed and who - sometimes through injuries and no fault of their own - suddenly finds it is too late to fulfil their potential.

I'd rather we kept Semenyo that sold him but I also think that, if we got £5 million and a generous sell-on clause AND if he had his heart set on a Premier League move, there are very valid reasons why the club might choose to sell. 

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2 hours ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

What’s happening to Semenyo happens to lots of young players.  Take Ivan Toney, huge promise but for his first six seasons he scored about 35 goals in total.  In the last three seasons he’s scored over seventy, playing in sides that understand him and with the benefit of growing experience.  Put Semenyo in the right set up and I think he’s quite capable of scoring 20 goals next season.  I wouldn’t consider selling him for a moment, but if he did go I would be very disappointed if he went for anything less than £10m.  But what I’d really like to see is us build a team around him, because I believe he’s going to surprise a lot of you.

But did Toney go from scoring 1 or 2 a season to suddenly scoring 20? No.

8 in 14/15 (L2)

12 in 16/17 (L1)

12 in 17/18 (L1)

16 in 18/19 (L1)

24 in 19/20 (L1)

31 in 20/21 (Champ)

There's a gradual increase there over the seasons you mention - granted Semenyo is younger but I'd be extremely surprised if he went from scoring 2 goals off his arse in around 40 appearances for us, to scoring 20 (our highest league scorer since Tammy) in one season. What makes you think he's capable of that exactly?

You're expecting him to go from scoring 3 in L2 3 seasons ago, 2 in the Champ this year, then 20 in the Champ. We need to be realistic.

I've heard this said so many times over the years about young players. People have a huge confirmation bias when it comes to them, forgetting all the ones who didn't make it they were backing. There's a reason you remember the names of them, but forget the other 3-5 young strikers at every club in L1 who haven't gone on to do what Toney has.

I hope you're right of course and quoting me in a year! That'd make us all very happy.

Edited by IAmNick
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2 hours ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

What’s happening to Semenyo happens to lots of young players.  Take Ivan Toney, huge promise but for his first six seasons he scored about 35 goals in total.  In the last three seasons he’s scored over seventy, playing in sides that understand him and with the benefit of growing experience.  Put Semenyo in the right set up and I think he’s quite capable of scoring 20 goals next season.  I wouldn’t consider selling him for a moment, but if he did go I would be very disappointed if he went for anything less than £10m.  But what I’d really like to see is us build a team around him, because I believe he’s going to surprise a lot of you.

Not really sure what this is based on as he isn't a goalscorer. He does offer other things though he is quick and direct and could be a place in the side for him but he will never score 20 goals in a season.

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Another way of looking at it is...

He has 2years+1year contract left, and we're being offered £3million.

Basically, worst case scenario, if we keep him, it's costing us £1million per season to have a player of his ability.

If he continues in a similar vein of form next season, he's probably still going to be worth £3million this time next year with 2 years contract left, so we're still in credit. 

Whereas if he blossoms, we've had a season of great performances, and his value would've rocketed also.

The flip side to this, is that he completely becomes useless and there no value left in him, in which case, we would've lost £3million.

 

Not quite sure of my point entirely, but I think I'm saying it's probably worth keeping him for another season, but I suppose the crux of the matter, is whether we need that £3million to spend right now.

 

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13 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

You've been a member of this forum since 2004 so I look forward to you providing the links to posts where you said Bolasie would be a £25m player after leaving us, playing for one of the biggest clubs in England.

Yours, in anticipation... 

Strange response - I just pointed out that when you posted “We all said the same about Bolasie...” you can’t presume to talk on behalf of every City fan ... I didn’t refer to my own views on the Bolasie transfer, they weren’t and aren’t relevant to the point I was making. 

Surely you can see that posting “We all said...” infers that you know the views of everyone who follows our club?

Yours, in anticipation ...

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29 minutes ago, beaverface said:

Not quite sure of my point entirely, but I think I'm saying it's probably worth keeping him for another season, but I suppose the crux of the matter, is whether we need that £3million to spend right now.

I think we could probably do better with £3m in our pockets to strengthen the team than persist with him in the hope he comes good. Pearson will be nowhere near as invested in the Semenyo project as LJ/DH were, so I would imagine he might see him as an asset to realise and reinvest the money in several key positions. 

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It's a very simple risk equation. Balancing the risk if we keep him - that "this" is all he has, he doesn't develop, etc., vs the risk that if we sell now, we miss out on his potential and don't necessarily get duly rewarded for it. On the other hand, we get £Xm in the bank that we could spend (although with no guarantee that will work out), versus the risk that we have a Ribeiro/Brown situation, where we're offered a moderate fee by a bigger club, don't take it, but then never get that offer again.

I could write an equation if I could be bothered.

Me? I think £3m doesn't get you a lot these days, whereas we know what we have already. I'd be inclined to keep him another year, see how he goes.

But ultimately, the player himself will probably decide.

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3 minutes ago, SecretSam said:

It's a very simple risk equation. Balancing the risk if we keep him - that "this" is all he has, he doesn't develop, etc., vs the risk that if we sell now, we miss out on his potential and don't necessarily get duly rewarded for it. On the other hand, we get £Xm in the bank that we could spend (although with no guarantee that will work out), versus the risk that we have a Ribeiro/Brown situation, where we're offered a moderate fee by a bigger club, don't take it, but then never get that offer again.

I could write an equation if I could be bothered.

Me? I think £3m doesn't get you a lot these days, whereas we know what we have already. I'd be inclined to keep him another year, see how he goes.

But ultimately, the player himself will probably decide.

Dunno about the 3 million not getting you a lot these days.... the market has crashed outside the premier league, and i doubt many clubs will be spending much. Also, thats our wage bill covered for a few months if SL gets fed up of paying it out of his pocket

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2 hours ago, beaverface said:

Another way of looking at it is...

He has 2years+1year contract left, and we're being offered £3million.

Basically, worst case scenario, if we keep him, it's costing us £1million per season to have a player of his ability.

If he continues in a similar vein of form next season, he's probably still going to be worth £3million this time next year with 2 years contract left, so we're still in credit. 

Whereas if he blossoms, we've had a season of great performances, and his value would've rocketed also.

The flip side to this, is that he completely becomes useless and there no value left in him, in which case, we would've lost £3million.

 

Not quite sure of my point entirely, but I think I'm saying it's probably worth keeping him for another season, but I suppose the crux of the matter, is whether we need that £3million to spend right now.

 

AND it is palace FFS! The stripey nigels!

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Firstly, lots of good arguments for and against both the value and his ability / potential.

6 hours ago, JonDolman said:

Agree we should be getting far more for Semenyo. I'm not sure why some people are happy with a few million for a player a prem team are after.

Right wing in a 442, his lack of goals won't really matter to Roy. I wouldn't be surprised if he develops that side of his game anyway.

Nige is actually impressed by our recruitment. So hopefully won't be a problem there.

 

 

1) because some of us worry that potential might not be achieved, nor do we honestly know where the ceiling is either.

2) PL can take a punt, even at £3-5m. Of course, drive for more if you can….although according to Kid, City value him at £5m!

For me it’s not his lack of goals, nor his potential, it’s more a fit to a system.  He’s an off the cuff type of player.  In the right team that might be perfect, but in another team it might not be.  That’s where some of my concerns are.  I don’t think he’s a natural wide player.  He plays best between the full-back and the centre-back, and I’m not sure that’s a good fit…..with what we’ve seen from an NP system so far.  That might change.

Pearson has started him 7 times, used him from bench 7 times (post Boro, where he was subbed on).

Re recruitment, he isn’t gonna say they’re crap either, playing Devil’s advocate? It’s obvious that “recruitment” needs to be much more than a group of data / video analysts reporting into a CEO.  The data / video analysts might be shit-hot in technical skills.  My big question has always been - can they interpret the requirements of the football manager to find the right players, or evaluate a player recommended as being a good fit for the system the manager wants to employ.  You need more than “coding” skills to do that.  In a non-football world, that’s what I do as a day job.

6 hours ago, pongo88 said:

The main factor in deciding whether to keep or sell should be does NP think he will ever deliver an end product on a regular basis. For all his undoubted talent, at present he doesn’t. Getting him to change won’t be easy as, at present, when in a shooting or crossing position he tends to panic and just blasts the ball as hard as he can. 

Kinda what I’ve written above.

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We’ve been the worst attacking side in Championship history this season. By some margin. Assessing Semenyo’s ability to score goals and assist them in a team that creates absolutely nothing is not a fair or worthwhile way to judge his abilities. 

Give him a season of decent coaching amongst a team that could actually create a chance, and I think he could flourish. 

 

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4 hours ago, Robbored said:

I reckon Semenyo will flourish under Nige. He’s pacy and if he can utilise that ability to its full benefit he’ll become quite an asset.

He’s been learning from the likes of Wells and Martin on when to make runs and find space and work on his finishing.

Next campaign could be his breakthrough season.

Oh god, no wonder he wants to leave! 

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32 minutes ago, SecretSam said:

It's a very simple risk equation. Balancing the risk if we keep him - that "this" is all he has, he doesn't develop, etc., vs the risk that if we sell now, we miss out on his potential and don't necessarily get duly rewarded for it. On the other hand, we get £Xm in the bank that we could spend (although with no guarantee that will work out), versus the risk that we have a Ribeiro/Brown situation, where we're offered a moderate fee by a bigger club, don't take it, but then never get that offer again.

I could write an equation if I could be bothered.

Me? I think £3m doesn't get you a lot these days, whereas we know what we have already. I'd be inclined to keep him another year, see how he goes.

But ultimately, the player himself will probably decide.

Absolutely, For me it's already a case of what he's worth today, if you think of him as a striker he's not a good investment as is, but he's got cracking skill and work rate regardless of goals if he's sat in a deeper role.  In that instance given his age he's worth all of the that 5m and some, I would say look at Eze his first QPR full season he scored 4 goals Antoine has scored 5 there is no reason given some decent coaching he cant score a similar amount, he's technically a better bigger player if you exclude goals.  I think there's also the fact the clubs are looking at him, this tells you they see potential, so I say keep him for a year and see how he develops under a decent coach. 

 

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He actually has 5 goals this season when you include the cup (50 total appearances) and 6 assists. He is young and the improvement from last season to this was huge. Add in how he can go past players and the number of shots he had that flashed just wide and I don't think it's that hard to see the potential. I would rather we kept him, but it really does depend who we want in. Same goes for Bentley - we may need to sell whoever we can get a decent fee for to free up funds for wages and some transfer fees. Which other players are we likely to get a few million for? However I think he could be huge next season. 

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This is a difficult one. He has amazing pace and can turn whilst receiving the ball BUT his end product in passing and shooting is awful, he gives away some stupid free kicks and his marking from set pieces is poor.

Normally I would think he could be coached but I have the feeling he lacks football intelligence and plays from instinct. Considering the rebuild we need, I would sell for £4 mil providing there were good sell and appearance kickers

 

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It’s been an awful season and the one consolation is that kids like Semenyo have got more game time and experience then they would have expected.  Having to take this season on the chin as some sort of youth team development experiment I thought the trade off was going to be the excitement of watching these players kick on.  Clubs clearly think Semenyo has the potential, I’d like to see that developed here for at least another season.

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