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havanatopia

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Well run out of time to edit that post, but Hav you say Derby fans must hate Mel Morris...this little snippet, wow.

image.thumb.png.5a9a3fecd673fc7fcf9b19f7b8aeda7e.png

Still defending to the hilt, well not Spanish but RoyMac5, Indy to some extent and perhaps richinspain.image.thumb.png.268814d73e46e33685609dd4050997ac.png

At least Pearl Ram has criticised Mel Morris and Pearce elsewhere on the forum in terms of bad stewardship IIRC, but it's fairly incredible the victimhood of some of their fans. Words starting to fail me a little.

Disclaimer: I'm willing to accept that it's a minority of course.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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Derby fans who suggest suing the EFL for damages, if the next charges aren't copper bottomed, still should read the bit about "Membership shall constitute". 

As part of being members of the EFL, you basically have to go through their Processes, not least Arbitraton. 

That also surely rules out any action by Wycombe however.

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18 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Afternoon @Hxj- what's the feasibility of this in your view, could the EFL suspend Derby's fixtures or is it up to the Clubs in q?

I am sure the EFL have the right to do so; but I doubt it will happen.  It just gets too complicated too quickly.

Personally I think that the slow death dance of DCFC will become a lesson in corporate greed.  How a once great club went all out and failed.  If the EFL are true to their word then DCFC should be on a hard transfer embargo at the end of the month, no one has come in yet. Despite all the press releases by the club they still haven’t stated that they meet the P&S loss limits for all seasons.  So looks like a points deduction this season as well.  Also heard that a couple of senior contracted players are negotiating moves away.

So small squad, points deduction and Rooney as manager should mean an exciting season propping up the table.

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9 minutes ago, Hxj said:

I am sure the EFL have the right to do so; but I doubt it will happen.  It just gets too complicated too quickly.

Personally I think that the slow death dance of DCFC will become a lesson in corporate greed.  How a once great club went all out and failed.  If the EFL are true to their word then DCFC should be on a hard transfer embargo at the end of the month, no one has come in yet. Despite all the press releases by the club they still haven’t stated that they meet the P&S loss limits for all seasons.  So looks like a points deduction this season as well.  Also heard that a couple of senior contracted players are negotiating moves away.

So small squad, points deduction and Rooney as manager should mean an exciting season propping up the table.

If you take out the `Rooney as manager` bit it reads just like Sheffield Wednesday last season

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Notice that Kieran Maguire has now mentioned the whole Derby Auditor for 2018 ie the guy from the Auditors who signed the Accounts that year states in his bio that he's a passionate Derby fan.

Bombshell..except it was mentioned on here 2 years ago IIRC. There's much more besides? In fact wasn't it mentioned in this thread a few days ago.

There is of course more besides but again public forum even if in public domain? ?

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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26 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Notice that Kieran Maguire has now mentioned the whole Derby Auditor for 2018 ie the guy from the Auditors who signed the Accounts that year states in his bio that he's a passionate Derby fan.

Bombshell..except it was mentioned on here 2 years ago IIRC. There's much more besides? In fact wasn't it mentioned in this thread a few days ago.

There is of course more besides but again public forum even if in public domain? ?

You may remember a good year or so ago I sent you a LinkedIn profile of said auditor ???

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7 hours ago, havanatopia said:

So who's up next? 

Reading, Stoke, Blackburn all looking dodgy, plus some others.

Difficult to see how it will all play out this season with the Covid exemptions and averaging.  There will be some interesting arguments behind closed doors as to what is acceptable as a deduction.

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14 minutes ago, Hxj said:

Reading, Stoke, Blackburn all looking dodgy, plus some others.

Difficult to see how it will all play out this season with the Covid exemptions and averaging.  There will be some interesting arguments behind closed doors as to what is acceptable as a deduction.

Venkys just put £29m in (guess this is covering off losses / turning into shares?)

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16 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Venkys just put £29m in (guess this is covering off losses / turning into shares?)

Probably just a vain end of year attempt to make the balance sheet look a little better.  They haven't put any share capital in for a good few years, so I suspect that the EFL were also getting twitchy.

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4 hours ago, Hxj said:

Reading, Stoke, Blackburn all looking dodgy, plus some others.

Difficult to see how it will all play out this season with the Covid exemptions and averaging.  There will be some interesting arguments behind closed doors as to what is acceptable as a deduction.

Agreed.

Reading I have heard are arguing that a fine would be appropriate. Stoke will probably be looked on more favourably than Reading on one level because they are trying to shift players and the Loan Strategy began January 2020. Mitigation possible.

Blackburn are the interesting one- Accounts due at CH tomorrow basically, they claim already submitted but not there yet. I think they might be in limitations and soft sanctions territory as opposed to points deductions at this stage.

A bit of confusion stems here from the fact that Venkys London Limited is listed as the parent, but its accounts only run to 31st March, whereas Blackburn Rovers company runs to the more conventional 30th June. Which one is used for P&S and how are the two dates reconciled, only the Club and EFL know for sure.

I also wonder about Fulham. There was a snippet last August/September that they would have been under a Soft Embargo going into 2020/21 had they stayed down- how might the EFL view this on return?

Caveat- Had they stayed down, with the rejigged and averaged Covid figures, their 3 year Upper Limit would have been £55.5m. Promotion meant it was £72m and even the instant relegation means it's £72m. The addition of 4 Upper Loss limits divided by 4 x 3=Upper Loss Limit in these times.

I have read that Fulham Leisure Limited lost £45.2m in 2019/20 but that's a headline figure- will have included promotion bonuses which of course are excluded from FFP but also a significant fee (pure profit) for Ryan Sessegnon which may not have been replicated. What we don't know is if it included eg a big write down on Player valuations which helps them later etc.

Their Accounts are due at CH tomorrow, still no sign...

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Some Derby fans are also making two interesting arguments.

1) This revision to Amortisation actually helps them, will check against the figures the Derby fan posted on here, think it will post 2018/19 but not before.

2) Leeds would have failed FFP for sure had they stayed down- I'd say a sale of Phillips, cutbacks in other areas plus of course the combined average for Covid- Bielsa and co probably off as well, to be replaced by a more routine Championship manager which would clearly have saved money- they could have restructured and avoided Hard Sanctions I expect, albeit with a significant impact to competitiveness on the pitch. Also Aston Villa could have run into issues without promotion, that would have been extraordinary given that their upcoming hole was including the Stadium Sale and HS2 Revenue, as well as Parachute Payments x 3.

Thirdly, a suggestion that they don't need to go Straight Line but could either make their Accounting Policy more clear or look for a further method that is compliant with FRS 102 but suits their purposes FFP wise.

image.thumb.png.f44ec47403ae0ef606653c9c1684391c.png

The flipside of course is that significant Amortisation spikes remain surely- they cannot have it all ways. Revising it back then helps now of course.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

A bit of confusion stems here from the fact that Venkys London Limited is listed as the parent, but its accounts only run to 31st March, whereas Blackburn Rovers company runs to the more conventional 30th June. Which one is used for P&S and how are the two dates reconciled, only the Club and EFL know for sure.

If Venkys is the TopCo for FFP purposes then group accounts have to be prepared for the year ending on a date in the period from 31 May to 31 July - see reg 1.1.3 penultimate paragraph:

"If the accounting reference date falls at any other time, separate accounts for the Club or the Group as appropriate must be prepared for a period of twelve months ending on a date between 31 May and 31 July inclusive, and in such a case “Annual Accounts” means those accounts."

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Some Derby fans are also making two interesting pointless arguments.

That reads better!

Firstly the problem with the amortisation method used was, quoting the actual decision at para 108.a, that

" ... it was impermissible in amortising under the cost model in relation to the accounts for 2015/16, 2016/17 and
2017/18 for the Club to take into account possible resale values of players."

So using a different method with resale values is still impermissible.  Using some sort of flexible amortisation is possible, but that would need extensive documentation to demonstrate and we already know that that does not exist.   As far as I can see it is a simple straight line, nothing else is possible.

There really is not enough good data out there to determine if Derby failed or passed FFP.

If Leeds had failed FFP then they would have had to have taken the punishment, but there is no evidence that they did, I am sure that they actually passed it.  Failing is cheating, not failing is not cheating.

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I also wonder about Fulham.

Also one living on the edge, but I suspect that a good dose of averaging, Parachutes and judicious covid related amortisation will see them through.

Edited by Hxj
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May as well check it out using the numbers provided by @AnotherDerbyFan plus those in the Written Reasons.

The bit about being better off- yes and no.

image.png

Upfront is an irrelevant consideration here, so too is Original surely as the lack of Contract Extension methods...

Between us, we've already covered albeit with different takes, the 2015/16 to 2017/18 so let's have a bit of a look using their own figures at the potential 3 years to 2019. These are quick calculations, very much open to Interpretation, Argument etc. 

Figures are FFP Profits or Losses, as opposed to headline ones.

2016/17- Using the Derby method. Amortisation=£5.04m. Loss for the year=£13,407,000. The Revised Amortisation in the extension method was £12.58m...LOSS £13,407,000 + £7.54m=£20,947,000.

2017/18- Using the Derby method. Amortisation=£6.54m. PROFIT for the year=£7,207,000. The Revised Amortisation in the extension method was £14.10m...£353,000 FFP LOSS. That said, you add back as per the Derby fan £2m swing in Ince Profit, and they also refer to some other upwardly revised Profit- needed to be £2-2.5m from that angle to avoid an FFP breach IIRC.

2018/19 is quite interesting!

Using the Derby method, Amortisation=£4.60m. LOSS for the year=£31,517,000. Revised Amortisation in that year was £11.71m, the Aggregate 3 year loss with Revised figures fell to £37.1m hence Process of elimination means that the loss for the year in q was £30.9m. Add in £7.11m to that...£38,010,000. HOWEVER the Vydra sale- I am sure Weimann was 2019 not 2018 but anyway if accounted for to 2017/18, it's irrelevant to the guesstimates for 2018/19, under the Derby method they had a loss of £1.1m on disposal of Players- £11.7m fees for £12.8m book value- does that swing to an improvement of maybe £10m? All rough and fairly loose calculations. 

Fairly sure they could well breach to 2018/19 under Straight Line with extension methods. Question is by how much, albeit it's irrelevant to this specific case or set of charges.

All a bit of conjecture though given no Accounts for the last two seasons at CH.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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I believe that this is likely BS, so let's not get excited- I'm taking it with masses of salt...if it's true it would be huge news! However my gut feeling is that it isn't.

However, there is a suggestion that Derby might get a -4 for the season just gone.

Do I believe it? No. His bio says he's a journo for Metro but I've no idea of the veracity etc. No written reasons out yet so I don't see how...

I still firmly believe sadly that they will start at this level, but I hope it's full steam ahead with Assessments, Reassessments, Embargoes and the like. No change to the schedule, reassess multiple 3 year periods with deductions applied/pushed for where required, and Embargoes in play where necessary.

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Read a little more, the journo...if he even is a journo- it's surely rubbish- unfortunately.

I would love it to be true clearly, not just because of the actions/alleged actions of the club (well ownership) but the all-in nature of a lot of their fans, Mel has EFL on strings etc. God I hope it has some truth.

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As for Wycombe and their threats of litigation, a few thoughts. I was gleeful and found the threat amusing but...

  1. Surely the EFL Regulations- Agreement to Arbitrate- would knock this one on the head? Clubs are not to sue the League, the League are not to sue Clubs- and if we see the Middlesbrough v Derby precedent, cases between Clubs surely are to also be settled via Arbitration.
  2. The £10-12m? I believe this figure to be overstated. £5-10m, probably towards the mid point or lower midpoint of this range probably more realistic. Some ticketing, some corporate- but largely the gap between TV and Solidarity Payments between Championship and League One. £6-8m maybe?
  3. Is it possible that Wycombe were taking the Championship Revenue in its entirety and not factoring in what they would get in League One- as in Championship Revenue - League One Revenue=Loss. Is it possible they were just looking at Championship Revenue while ignoring the League One Revenue, making the whole of a Championship season as opposed to the potential gap/loss the basis for their claim.
  4. Was always under the impression that Arbitration couldn't award such hefty- technically perhaps, punitive- damages- although I have to admit, not a clue on this last point!

In short, it's a bold claim but I don't see much chance of success and as in Point 2 and 3, figures potentially seem overstated.

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23 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

You would have to say that Wycombe have been a pretty fortuitous team over the last two seasons if this went through too.

Finished outside the playoffs in league one but points per game put them back in it, eventually leading them to promotion. Now to stay up thanks to a Derby points deduction, they certainly gave it a good go.

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23 minutes ago, Kodjias Wrist said:

You would have to say that Wycombe have been a pretty fortuitous team over the last two seasons if this went through too.

Finished outside the playoffs in league one but points per game put them back in it, eventually leading them to promotion. Now to stay up thanks to a Derby points deduction, they certainly gave it a good go.

This is true, forgot about the PPG but didn't that put them in the frame ahead of Peterborough?

Their form towards the end of the season was fantastic though, unbelievable run from nowhere- 6 wins and in total 20 pts from last 11 games- they only won 5 of their first 35!?

As for this (remote at best) chance, I usually would say "Think of the fans" but most seem to think they're aok, nothing doing etc so in a sense up theirs.

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2 hours ago, Kodjias Wrist said:

You would have to say that Wycombe have been a pretty fortuitous team over the last two seasons if this went through too.

Finished outside the playoffs in league one but points per game put them back in it, eventually leading them to promotion. Now to stay up thanks to a Derby points deduction, they certainly gave it a good go.

And to think they`re only where they are because they cheated the family club many years ago.

I`d sue if I was the g*s.

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Probably a tad on the harsh side my little rant earlier about up theirs, but at the same time a lot of their fans at least based on some forums or Twitter seemed to support the general pursuit of loopholes so it's a mixed bag.

More than any rant, I'm actually genuinely surprised at the number who seem to back the Club/Mel Morris, are happy to go along with the Accounting methods that have led them to this place, unfair treatment by the EFL whatever.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I'm actually genuinely surprised at the number who seem to back the Club/Mel Morris

That's because you spend far too much time on this board and the general hatred for Steve Lansdown for not putting enough of his money in to a club that he his hated for owning!

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